Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 8, no. 2 (Apr. 2002)]

GEORGIA

Economic

Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

April 2002

Volume 8, Issue 2

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report February 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 2 April 2002

Cover art: Christ Church, St. Simons Island, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002

1

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.

Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

JAN 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1

FEB 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8

MAR 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2

APR 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9

MAY 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7

JUN 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0

JUL 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5

AUG 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5

SEP 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3

OCT 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4

DEC 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7

AVG 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1

CPI RATE
12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

The CPI Continues to Climb

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in February, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.8 (1982-84=100), recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ending in February, the CPI-U increased 1.1 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.3 percent in February, prior to seasonal adjustment. The February level of 173.7 was 0.8 percent higher than the index in February 2001.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.2 percent in February, the same as in January. The energy index, which advanced 0.9 percent in January, declined 0.8 percent in February. The index for petroleum-based energy decreased 0.1 percent, and the index for
Georgia Department of Labor

energy services fell 1.3 percent.

seasonal adjustment, gasoline

Excluding food and energy, the

prices rose 0.4 percent in

CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in February

February.) Airline fares

after increasing 0.2 percent in

increased for the second

January.

consecutive month, up 1.0

The index for housing rose 0.3

percent in February, following

percent in February. Shelter costs

declines in each of the last six

advanced 0.5 percent in February,

months of 2001.

following a 0.3 percent increase in

The index for apparel, which

January. The index for fuels and

had declined in each of the three

utilities declined 1.0 percent in

preceding months, turned up in

February. Each of the three major

February, advancing 0.5 percent.

household fuels: natural gas,

Prior to seasonal adjustment,

electricity, and fuel oil, contributed

apparel prices rose 2.6 percent,

to the February decrease, down 3.3,

reflecting the introduction of

0.7, and 0.9 percent, respectively.

spring-summer wear.

The index for household furnishings

Medical care costs rose 0.3

and operations declined 0.2 percent.

percent in February. The index

The transportation component

for medical care commodities

turned back down in February,

increased 0.4 percent. The

declining 0.2 percent after

index for medical care services

increasing 0.3 percent in January.

rose 0.2 percent in February.

The index for gasoline, which rose

Charges for professional services

2.7 percent in January, fell 0.4

were unchanged, while the

percent in February. (Prior to

index for hospital and related

services increased 0.7 percent.

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators

197.7

Leading indicators Coincident indicators

173.0

148.3

123.7

99.0
1987-88 = 100

74.4

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Georgia's Economic Indicators Decline in February

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) slipped 0.1 percent in February to 173.0 from a downward revised 175.2 in January, after seasonal adjustment.
After January's major advancements in the Leading Economic Indicator, most of the components of the LEI contracted. New business corporations filed with the state slipped 4.9 percent in February, after accelerating 75.9 percent in January. The value of commercial construction was moderate, increasing 4.8 percent in February, adding to last month's

Recent 12 Months

181.2

Leading Coincident

175.3

169.3

163.4

157.5

1987-88 =100

151.6

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

54.8 percent gain. Building permits for re-
sidential construction decreased 0.1 percent in February, after posting a 10.1 percent increase in January. As we approach the major home buying season, a slowdown in the residential

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002

construction sector could be an indication of builders reducing their exposure to high inventory levels.
Sales of new motor vehicles decreased 11.1 percent in February, after posting a 22.9 percent increase in January.
The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) decreased 0.1 percent to 158.3, from a revised 159.7 in January, after seasonal adjustment.
The jobless rate for the state remained at 4.4 percent in February. Retail employment declined 0.6 percent. State revenue contracted 9.8 percent in February, offsetting January's 17.4 percent gain.
Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

February 2002

Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted
2002 Nonagricultural Employment

Feb 2002 3,882,703

Jan 2001 3,872,285

Percent Percent

Change Change

Jan 2002 Feb 2001

to

to

Feb 2001 Feb 2002 Feb

3,977,192

0.27

-2.38

Retail Employment

701,750

706,291

717,582

-0.64

-2.21

Manufacturing Employment

538,364

537,895

565,865

0.09

-4.86

Manufacturing Workweek

39.6

42.8

40.4

-7.47

-1.97

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$517.90

$555.99

$530.49

-6.85

-2.37

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$291.28

$313.94

$301.76

-7.22

-3.47

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

9,031

8,463

11,717

6.72 -22.92

Initial Unemployment Claims

37,997

55,134

46,055

-31.08 -17.50

Continued Unemployment Claims

313,937

316,501

196,795

-0.81

59.52

Unemployment Rate ( not seasonally adjusted)

4.4%

4.4%

3.7%

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.04%

2.22%

1.23%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

41,086

46,262

42,961

-11.19

-4.37

Residential Construction (building permits)

7,698

7,711

7,897

-0.16

-2.52

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $525,956,000 $501,561,000 $461,292,000

4.86

14.02

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$436,116,100 $415,199,500 $391,921,800

5.04

11.28

New Business Corporations

5,085

5,348

4,544

-4.92

11.91

Total State Revenues

$1,129,201,000 $1,253,033,000 $1,124,170,000

-9.88

0.45

Deflated Total State Revenues

$635,096,200 $707,528,500 $639,459,600

-10.24

-0.68

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002 5

Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.03 2000-2001 2001-2002
3.99

3.95

3.90

3.86

3.82

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
3,931,137 3,931,442 3,951,406 3,955,191 3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192

2001-2002
3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,882,703

MILLIONS

Retail Employment

729.8

2000-2001 2001-2002

722.5

715.2

THOUSANDS

707.8

700.5

693.2

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
711,492 712,080 713,348 713,479 714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582

2001-2002
719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 701,750

Manufacturing Employment

605

2000-2001

2001-2002

590

575

THOUSANDS

560

545

530

515

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

6 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
588,721 589,055 588,489 587,948 582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865

2001-2002
563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 538,364

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

44.2

2000-2001

2001-2002

42.9

41.6

HOURS

40.3

39.0

37.7

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
41.5 42.1 41.0 41.2 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4

2001-2002
40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 39.6

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$577

2000-2001

2001-2002

$561

DOLLARS

$544

$527

$511

$494

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
$531.87 544.76 523.51 529.04 534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49

2001-2002
$529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 517.90

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

DOLLARS

$333

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

$322

Month 2000-2001 2001-2002

$311

$299

$288

$277

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

$310.85 318.20 305.61 307.05 309.54 311.44 310.26 313.61 314.20 309.75 304.54 301.76

$300.49 290.37 295.18 298.99 299.53 302.38 301.65 296.42 295.18 297.90 313.94 291.28

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

24.5

2000-2001

2001-2002

19.8

THOUSANDS

15.2

10.5

5.9

1.2

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor

Initial Unemployment Claims

96.0

2000-2001

2001-2002

78.0

THOUSANDS

59.9

41.9

23.9

5.9

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001 18,537 18,229 17,965 16,512 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717

2001-2002 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001 27,411 25,845 27,835 30,493 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055

2001-2002 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 37,997

Continued Unemployment Claims

486.5

2000-2001

2001-2002

393.2

THOUSANDS

299.9

206.5

113.2

19.9

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
124,318 128,323 150,682 137,452 151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795

2001-2002
185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 313,937

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *

5.0

2000-2001

2001-2002

4.6

PERCENTAGES

4.1

3.6

3.2

2.7

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

2.76

2000-2001

2001-2002

2.26

PERCENTAGES

1.76

1.26

0.76

0.26

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
3.8 % 3.4 3.5 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7

2001-2002
3.7 % 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
0.83 % 0.86 0.83 0.87 0.91 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23

2001-2002
1.29 % 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04

New Motor Vehicle Sales

63

2000-2001

2001-2002

56

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

2000-2001

2001-2002

THOUSANDS

49

42

35

28

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

54,079 49,925 50,998 46,247 48,402 53,062 45,375 45,510 44,190 37,137 52,597 42,961

47,370 46,979 48,748 43,724 47,397 49,695 49,277 49,573 48,849 37,638 46,262 41,086

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,106

2000-2001

2001-2002

9,251

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

8,396

7,541

6,686

5,831

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001 8,187 7,736 8,114 7,862 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897

2001-2002 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698

Nonresidential Construction

$953

2000-2001

2001-2002

$786

$619

MILLIONS

$452

$286

$119

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$843

2000-2001

2001-2002

$690

$537

MILLIONS

$385

$232

$79

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

10 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
$542,289,000 736,178,000 589,272,000 629,543,000 384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000

2001-2002
$431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
$476,109,700 643,512,200 513,303,100 546,953,100 332,229,900 350,545,800 489,446,900 468,180,600 319,190,400 415,510,700 481,642,200 391,921,800

2001-2002
$363,938,400 483,843,600 364,657,700 399,722,700 417,791,200 395,466,400 443,474,900 426,054,900 514,441,500 268,300,700 415,199,500 436,116,100

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

6,725

2000-2001

2001-2002

5,750

CHARTERS

4,775

3,800

2,825

1,850

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

* Includes limited liability companies

Total State Revenues

$1,683

2000-2001

2001-2002

$1,482

$1,281

MILLIONS

$1,080

$879

$679

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001 4,727 4,096 5,285 4,692 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544

2001-2002 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
$1,005,922,000 1,078,638,000 1,346,521,000 1,033,355,000 1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000

2001-2002
$926,149,000 989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,129,201,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$940

2000-2001

2001-2002

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$832

$723

$614

$505

$397

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2000-2001
$587,914,700 630,045,600 786,060,100 599,741,700 652,281,000 682,917,800 653,971,800 678,811,500 650,715,100 651,471,300 766,528,300 639,459,600

2001-2002
$525,623,700 559,630,900 803,682,600 689,033,700 598,519,400 619,695,200 595,664,000 614,878,400 612,254,800 603,900,400 707,528,500 635,096,200

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2002 11

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