GEORGIA
Economic
Indicators
A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends
March 2002
Volume 8, Issue 1
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner
Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report January 2002 Data
Volume 8, Issue 1 March 2002
Cover art: Evans County Courthouse, Claxton, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner
Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002 1
Introduction
G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Please note: Annually, employment estimates are adjusted to a count of all employees in a geographical area (known as benchmarking). Revisions to 2001, 2000 and 1999 nonfarm jobs have been completed. These newly bechmarked series are reflected in the current January data.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center
2 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002
Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index
YEAR 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
JAN 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1
FEB 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8
MAR 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2
APR 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9
MAY 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7
JUN 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0
JUL 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5
AUG 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5
SEP 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3
OCT 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
NOV 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4
DEC 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7
AVG 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 177.1
CPI RATE
12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% 1.6%
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
The CPI Regains Momentum In January
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.1 (1982-84=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ending in January, the CPI-U increased 1.1 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.2 percent in January, prior to seasonal adjustment. The January level of 173.2 was 0.9 percent higher than the index in January 2001.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.2 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent decline in December. The energy index, which declined sharply in each of the preceding three months, advanced 0.9 percent in January. The index for petroleum-based energy increased 2.5 percent, while the index for energy services fell 0.4
percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in January after increasing 0.1 percent in December.
The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in January, the same as in December. The index for fuels and utilities registered a 0.2 percent decrease in January. A 1.2 percent increase in the index for natural gas was more than offset by declines in the indexes for fuel oil and for electricity, down 1.7 and 1.2 percent, respectively. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.4 percent.
The transportation component increased 0.3 percent in January, reflecting an upturn in the index for gasoline. Gasoline prices rose 1.9 percent in January after declining 27.0 percent in the preceding three month period. Partially offsetting this increase was a 0.6 percent decrease in the index for new vehicles. The index for used cars and trucks declined 0.4 percent.
During the last 12 months, the
index for new vehicles has
declined 0.7 percent and the
index for used cars and trucks has
fallen 3.0 percent.
The index for public
transportation rose 0.2 percent in
January. Airline fares rose 0.4
percent, following declines in
each of the last six months of
2001.
The index for apparel declined
for the third consecutive month,
down 0.7 percent in January.
(Prior to seasonal adjustment,
apparel prices fell 2.7 percent,
reflecting
post-holiday
discounting.)
Medical care costs rose 0.5
percent in January. The index for
medical care commodities
increased 0.3 percent. The index
for medical care services rose 0.5
percent in January. Charges for
professional services and related
services increased 0.3 and 0.9
percent, respectively.
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002 3
Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
197.7
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
173.0
148.3
123.7
99.0
1987-88 = 100
74.4
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
Georgia's Economic Indicators Display Positive Signals
Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) surged ahead 3.4 percent in January to 174.9 from a revised 169.2, after seasonal adjustment.
The economy started the year on a good note. The LEI pushed forward in January adding to December's increase. The largest contributor to the index's gain was a 75.9 percent jump in new business filed with the state. Commercial construction increased 54.8 percent in January; whereas, building permits for residential construction slipped 3.2 percent. Sales of new motor vehicles increased 22.9 percent, after falling 25.0 percent the previous month.
Recent 12 Months
181.2
Leading Coincident
175.3
169.3
163.4
157.5
1987-88 =100
151.6
J
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The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) increased 2.0 percent in January, reversing the index's downward trend. The CEI leaped to 161.2 in January from an upwardly revised 158.0 in December, after seasonal adjustment.
The double-digit jump in state revenue was the largest contributor to the index's increase. Tax revenue increased 17.4 percent in January, reversing December's 5.4 percent decline. Georgia's jobless rate increased to 4.4 percent, as the nation's unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent.
The Leading Indicator has increased for two consecutive months and the Coincident Indicator posted it's largest gain in eight months. The two indexes have not increased simultaneously since August 2000. Both economic indicators displayed positive economic signals this month that could very well be the start of a recovery.
4 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002
Georgia Department of Labor
Data Summary
January 2002
Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted
Jan 2002
Dec 2001
Jan 2001
Percent Change
Dec 2001 to
Jan 2002
Percent Change
Jan 2001 to
Jan 2002
Nonagricultural Employment
3,876,323
3,892,867
3,969,680
-0.42
-2.35
Retail Employment
706,190
711,426
718,082
-0.74
-1.66
Manufacturing Employment
537,393
538,342
568,517
-0.18
-5.47
Manufacturing Workweek
42.3
40.3
41.0
4.81
3.18
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$557.94
$526.39
$533.25
5.99
4.63
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$315.04
$297.90
$304.54
5.75
3.45
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
8,463
6,863
11,144
23.31 -24.06
Initial Unemployment Claims
55,134
47,878
50,402
15.16
9.39
Continued Unemployment Claims
316,501
360,381
211,730
-12.18
49.48
Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)
4.4%
4.3%
3.3%
Insured Unemployment Rate
1.90%
2.09%
1.19%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
46,262
37,638
52,597
22.91 -12.04
Residential Construction (building permits)
7,711
6,997
8,434
10.19
-8.57
Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $501,561,000 $323,839,000 $565,448,000
54.88 -11.30
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$416,925,200 $268,969,300 $481,642,200
55.01 -13.44
New Business Corporations
5,348
3,039
4,859
75.98
10.07
Total State Revenues
$1,253,033,000 $1,067,092,000 $1,342,191,000
17.43
-6.64
Deflated Total State Revenues
$707,528,500 $603,900,400 $766,528,300
17.16
-7.70
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002 5
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
24.5
2000-2001
2001-2002
19.8
15.2
10.5
5.9
1.2
F
M
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M
J
J
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
3,908,130 3,931,137 3,931,442 3,951,406 3,955,191 3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680
2001-2002
3,977,192 3,983,939 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,876,323
MILLIONS
Retail Employment
729.8
2000-2001 2001-2002
723.5
717.2
THOUSANDS
710.9
704.6
698.4
F
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J
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
708,227 711,492 712,080 713,348 713,479 714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082
2001-2002
717,582 719,611 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,190
Manufacturing Employment
607
2000-2001
2001-2002
593
580
THOUSANDS
566
553
539
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N
D
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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
588,665 588,721 589,055 588,489 587,948 582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517
2001-2002
565,865 563,555 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,393
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Manufacturing Workweek
43.7
2000-2001
2001-2002
42.5
41.3
HOURS
40.1
38.9
37.7
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M
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N
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
42.0 41.5 42.1 41.0 41.2 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0
2001-2002
40.4 40.5 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.3
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$577
2000-2001
2001-2002
$561
DOLLARS
$544
$527
$511
$494
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
$539.93 531.87 544.76 523.51 529.04 534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25
2001-2002
$530.49 529.46 513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 557.94
Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
DOLLARS
$322
2000-2001
2001-2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 2000-2001
2001-2002
$311
$299
$288
$277
F
M
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N
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Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
$318.17 310.85 318.20 305.61 307.05 309.54 311.44 310.26 313.61 314.20 309.75 304.54
$301.76 300.49 290.37 295.18 298.99 299.53 302.38 301.65 296.42 295.18 297.90 315.04
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002 7
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*
24.5
2000-2001
2001-2002
19.8
THOUSANDS
15.2
10.5
5.9
1.2
F
M
A
M
J
J
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O
N
D
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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor
Initial Unemployment Claims
96.0
2000-2001
2001-2002
78.0
THOUSANDS
59.9
41.9
23.9
5.9
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001 18,064 18,537 18,229 17,965 16,512 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144
2001-2002 11,717 11,033 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001 27,777 27,411 25,845 27,835 30,493 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402
2001-2002 46,055 47,300 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134
Continued Unemployment Claims
486.5
2000-2001
2001-2002
393.2
THOUSANDS
299.9
206.5
113.2
19.9
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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
135,475 124,318 128,323 150,682 137,452 151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730
2001-2002
196,795 185,827 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate *
5.1
2000-2001
2001-2002
4.5
PERCENTAGES
4.0
3.4
2.9
2.4
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* Not Seasonally Adjusted
Insured Unemployment Rate
2.60
2000-2001
2001-2002
2.15
PERCENTAGES
1.70
1.25
0.81
0.36
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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
3.8 % 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.3
2001-2002
3.6 % 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
0.86 % 0.83 0.86 0.83 0.87 0.91 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19
2001-2002
1.23 % 1.29 1.35 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 1.90
New Motor Vehicle Sales
63
2000-2001
2001-2002
56
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
2000-2001
2001-2002
THOUSANDS
49
42
35
28
F
M
A
M
J
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D
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Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
52,529 54,079 49,925 50,998 46,247 48,402 53,062 45,375 45,510 44,190 37,137 52,597
42,961 47,370 46,979 48,748 43,724 47,397 49,695 49,277 49,573 48,849 37,638 46,262
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002 9
Georgia Economic Indicators
Residential Construction
10,106
2000-2001
2001-2002
9,251
HOUSEHOLD UNITS
8,396
7,541
6,686
5,831
F
M
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001 7,984 8,187 7,736 8,114 7,862 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434
2001-2002 7,897 7,192 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711
Nonresidential Construction
$987
2000-2001
2001-2002
$814
$640
MILLIONS
$466
$293
$119
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Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$843
2000-2001
2001-2002
$690
$537
MILLIONS
$385
$232
$79
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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
$413,505,000 542,289,000 736,178,000 589,272,000 629,543,000 384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000
2001-2002
$461,292,000 431,267,000 572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
$362,405,800 476,109,700 643,512,200 513,303,100 546,953,100 332,229,900 350,545,800 489,446,900 468,180,600 319,190,400 415,510,700 481,642,200
2001-2002
$391,921,800 363,938,400 483,843,600 364,657,700 399,722,700 417,791,200 395,466,400 443,474,900 426,764,400 515,725,500 268,969,300 416,925,200
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
New Business Corporations*
6,725
2000-2001
2001-2002
5,750
CHARTERS
4,775
3,800
2,825
1,850
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* Includes limited liability companies
Total State Revenues
$1,683
2000-2001
2001-2002
$1,482
$1,281
MILLIONS
$1,080
$879
$679
F
M
A
M
J
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O
N
D
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001 4,625 4,727 4,096 5,285 4,692 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859
2001-2002 4,544 5,039 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
$1,056,104,000 1,005,922,000 1,078,638,000 1,346,521,000 1,033,355,000 1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000
2001-2002
$1,124,170,000 926,149,000 989,987,000
1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$940
2000-2001
2001-2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
MILLIONS
$832
$723
$614
$505
$397
F
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Month
Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2000-2001
$622,335,900 587,914,700 630,045,600 786,060,100 599,741,700 652,281,000 682,917,800 653,971,800 678,811,500 650,715,100 651,471,300 766,528,300
2001-2002
$639,459,600 525,623,700 559,630,900 803,682,600 689,033,700 598,519,400 619,695,200 595,664,000 614,878,400 612,254,800 603,900,400 707,528,500
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2002 11
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