GEORGIA
Economic
Indicators
A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends
June 2001
Volume 7, Issue 4
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner
Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report April 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 4 June 2001
Cover art: St. Simons Island Lighthouse, Georgia - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner
Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001 1
Introduction
G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center
2 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001
Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index
YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
JAN
62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1
FEB
62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8
MAR
63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2
APR MAY
63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9
JUN
65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3
JUL
65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6
AUG
66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8
SEP
66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7
OCT
67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
NOV
67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1
DEC
67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0
AVG
65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1
CPI RATE
9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4%
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Consumer Price Index Increased 0.4 Percent in April
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in April, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 176.9 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12month period ended in April, the CPIU increased 3.3 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.5 percent in April, prior to seasonal adjustment. The April level of 173.5 was 3.3 percent higher than the index was last April.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in April. The energy index, which had declined in each of the two preceding months, increased 1.8 percent in April. The index for petroleum-based energy increased 4.2 percent, more than offsetting a 0.4 percent decline in the index for energy services. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in April, the same as in March.
While the overall increase was the
Georgia Department of Labor
The Formula
Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another.
Index point change
CPI Less previous index Equals index point change
112.5 108.5
4.0
Percent change
Index point difference
4.0
Divided by the previous index
108.5
Equals
0.037
Results multiplied by 100
0.037 x 100
Equals percent change
3.7%
same in both months, the composition was different. The indexes for apparel and for lodging while away from home, each of which had increased in February and March, declined in April. On the other hand, the indexes for tobacco and for recreation each turned up sharply in April after declining in March.
During the first four months of
2001, the CPI-U rose at a 3.8 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. The index for energy, which registered double-digit increases in both 1999 and 2000, continued this pattern in the first four months of 2001, increasing at a 10.3 percent SAAR. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U has advanced at a 3.3 percent SAAR thus far in 2001, compared with a 2.6 percent rise for all of 2000.
The transportation component, which declined 0.9 percent in March, turned upward in April, advancing 0.9 percent. The index for gasoline rose 5.0 percent in April, following a 3.8 percent decrease in March. Medical care costs rose 0.4 percent in April to a level 4.6 percent higher than a year ago. In April, the index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.3 and 0.5 percent, respectively.
Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001 3
Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
197.7
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
173.0
148.3
123.7
99.0
1987-88 = 100
74.4
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
Georgia's Economic Indicators Show Signs of Deceleration
Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.6 percent in April to 165.22 from a revised 166.36, after seasonal adjustment.
Construction posted month over month gains in the residential and nonresidential sectors in April, increasing 6.82 percent and 40.1 percent respectively. However, construction levels remain below the same time period last year.
New motor vehicles sales moved upward 7.16 percent for the month and total revenue for the state increased 4.90 percent. New business corporations filed with the Secretary of State decreased 5.71 percent in April, 10.45 percent higher then April's 2000 level.
Recent 12 Months
Leading Coincident
167.7
165.5
163.3
161.2 159.0
1993 = 100
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The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.
4 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001
The Index of Coincident Indicators moved lower for the third consecutive month, decreasing to 161.42 from a revised March index of 161.83 or 0.26 percent. Nonagricultural employment increased a modest 0.25 percent in April. Consequently, retail and manufacturing employment moved lower (see data summary). In the manufacturing sector weekly earnings slipped 4.31 percent followed by a decrease of 3.06 percent in weekly manufacturing hours worked. The statewide unemployment rate for April was 3.7%, one-tenth of a percent higher than March's revised rate and two-tenths of a percent lower then the April's 2000 rate.
Georgia Department of Labor
Data Summary
April 2001
Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted
Apr 2001
Mar 2001
Apr 2000
Percent Percent
Change Change
Mar 2001 Apr 2000
to
to
Apr 2001 Apr 2001
Nonagricultural Employment
4,051,783
4,041,867
4,004,242
Retail Employment
734,030
734,253
746,262
Manufacturing Employment
574,505
574,610
605,222
Manufacturing Workweek
39.1
40.3
41.7
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$503.53
$526.21
$539.06
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$284.64
$298.64
$314.87
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
10,661
11,596
18,446
Initial Unemployment Claims
58,638
45,582
25,740
Continued Unemployment Claims
264,655
182,949
131,083
Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)
3.7%
3.6%
3.9%
Insured Unemployment Rate
1.33%
1.28%
0.85%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
52,108
48,624
50,779
Residential Construction (building permits)
7,784
7,287
7,941
Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $619,469,000 $442,190,000 $789,116,000
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$524,973,700 $375,373,500 $692,814,700
New Business Corporations
4,745
5,033
4,296
Total State Revenues
$964,287,000 $919,280,000 $1,054,124,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$545,102,900 $521,725,300 $615,726,600
0.25 -0.03 -0.02 -3.06 -4.31 -4.69 -8.07 28.64 44.66
1.19 -1.64 -5.08 -6.27 -6.59 -9.60 -42.21 127.81 101.90
7.16 6.82 40.09 39.85 -5.71 4.90 4.48
2.62 -1.97 -21.50 -24.23 10.45 -8.52 -11.47
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001 5
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.14 1999-2000 2000-2001
4.07
MILLIONS
4.00
3.93
3.86
3.79
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr
1999-2000
3,877,047 3,894,075 3,901,321 3,910,888 3,922,056 3,942,523 3,955,229 3,963,656 3,965,660 3,962,154 3,987,167 4,004,242
2000-2001
4,000,028 3,995,864 4,005,404 4,005,559 4,009,019 4,006,980 4,010,546 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,051,783
Retail Employment
786.5
1999-2000
2000-2001
763.8
741.1
THOUSANDS
718.4
695.7
673.0
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr
1999-2000
702,588 707,123 712,012 715,731 715,285 724,116 729,968 740,637 733,876 735,540 740,516 746,262
2000-2001
744,202 743,872 746,516 746,312 745,849 753,997 758,707 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,030
Manufacturing Employment
621
1999-2000
2000-2001
609
597
THOUSANDS
585
573
561
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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
1999-2000
598,033 599,502 597,951 600,274 599,835 600,686 601,405 601,977 605,180 606,458 604,713 605,222
2000-2001
605,314 604,183 604,587 602,562 602,969 603,601 599,711 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 574,505
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Manufacturing Workweek
43.5
1999-2000
2000-2001
42.3
HOURS
41.2
40.0
38.9
37.7
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
1999-2000
42.1 42.0 41.7 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.1 42.4 41.9 41.6 41.3 41.7
2000-2001
40.6 41.1 41.3 41.5 40.8 41.5 41.1 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$563
1999-2000
2000-2001
$548
DOLLARS
$533
$517
$502
$487
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
1999-2000
$526.24 522.68 517.85 514.01 524.12 528.36 539.58 544.48 537.38 534.59 530.86 539.06
2000-2001
$520.69 525.93 533.24 541.00 535.46 544.57 544.07 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 503.53
Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$335 $325
1999-2000
2000-2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1999-2000
2000-2001
DOLLARS
$315
$305
$296
$286
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May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
$316.63 314.49 310.65 307.61 312.16 314.12 320.61 323.52 318.54 315.02 310.26 314.87
$303.97 305.24 308.95 313.08 308.27 312.97 312.50 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 284.64
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001 7
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*
23.1
1999-2000
2000-2001
19.8
THOUSANDS
16.5
13.3
10.0
6.7
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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor
Initial Unemployment Claims
72.3
1999-2000
2000-2001
60.0
THOUSANDS
47.7
35.4
23.2
10.9
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
1999-2000
15,668 14,848 16,182 17,257 17,162 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446
2000-2001
17,760 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
May Jun Jul Aug
Sep Oct
Nov Dec Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
1999-2000
25,153 28,799 31,190 31,429
29,589 27,653
28,483 32,536 30,852 27,421
26,430
25,740
2000-2001
28,821 29,186 31,422 34,375
34,313 38,271
45,620 43,776 50,354 45,517
45,582
58,638
Continued Unemployment Claims
327.3
1999-2000
2000-2001
274.7
THOUSANDS
222.2
169.6
117.1
64.5
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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
May Jun Jul Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
1999-2000
123,364 156,918 128,964 162,340
132,319 139,033
154,977
138,052 153,719 134,472
122,763
131,083
2000-2001
148,971 135,417 151,092 152,030
147,905 184,770
164,381
167,498 211,150 195,343
182,949
264,655
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate *
4.7
1999-2000
2000-2001
4.3
PERCENTAGES
3.9
3.4
3.0
2.6
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* Not Seasonally Adjusted
Insured Unemployment Rate
1.51
1999-2000
2000-2001
1.33
PERCENTAGES
1.15
0.97
0.79
0.61
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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr
1999-2000
4.1 % 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.9
2000-2001
3.5 % 3.4 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.7
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr
1999-2000
0.87 % 0.88 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85
2000-2001
0.85 % 0.89 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33
New Motor Vehicle Sales
68
1999-2000
2000-2001
60
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
1999-2000
2000-2001
THOUSANDS
51
43
35
27
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M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr
41,935 52,760 42,573 46,239 42,194 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779
52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 52,108
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001 9
Georgia Economic Indicators
Residential Construction
10,118
1999-2000
2000-2001
9,047
HOUSEHOLD UNITS
7,976
6,905
5,834
4,762
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
1999-2000
6,088 8,793 7,155 7,489 7,323 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941
2000-2001
8,084 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784
Nonresidential Construction
$978
1999-2000
2000-2001
$813
$648
MILLIONS
$483
$318
$153
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Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$875
1999-2000
2000-2001
$728
$580
MILLIONS
$433
$286
$139
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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
1999-2000
$487,330,000 545,301,000 572,688,000 539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000
2000-2001
$548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr
1999-2000
$443,834,200 493,932,100 517,801,100 486,506,300 428,110,900 328,219,900 385,736,400 645,006,200 426,041,700 346,588,900 490,482,800 692,814,700
2000-2001
$480,444,000 571,793,900 370,824,200 341,744,300 508,080,600 448,815,900 314,617,400 401,918,600 477,596,100 373,138,800 375,373,500 524,973,700
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
New Business Corporations*
5,658
1999-2000
2000-2001
5,207
CHARTERS
4,756
4,305
3,854
3,403
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* Includes limited liability companies
Total State Revenues
$1,579
1999-2000
2000-2001
$1,407
$1,234
MILLIONS
$1,062
$890
$717
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r
1999-2000
3,896 4,318 4,334 4,316 4,622 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296
2000-2001
5,172 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr
1999-2000
2000-2001
$1,014,950,000 1,020,119,000 1,013,915,000 1,152,734,000
956,358,000 1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000
$1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000
919,280,000 964,287,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$925
1999-2000
2000-2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
MILLIONS
$821
$718
$614
$511
$407
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Month
M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr
1999-2000
$610,679,900 613,790,000 608,227,400 689,846,800 569,599,800 643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600
2000-2001
$796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2001 11
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