Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 7, no. 2 (Apr. 2001)]

GEORGIA

Economic

Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

April 2001

Volume 7, Issue 2

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report February 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 2 April 2001
Cover art: Savannah River Queen - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia

Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner

Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001 1

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

JAN
62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1

FEB
62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8

MAR
63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1

APR MAY
63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3

JUN
65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3

JUL
65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6

AUG
66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8

SEP
66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7

OCT
67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV DEC
67.4 67.7

AVG
65.2

CPI RATE
9.0%

75.9 76.7

72.6 13.3%

85.5 86.3

82.4 12.5%

93.7 94.0

90.9

8.9%

98.0 97.6

96.5

3.8%

101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4

101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4

99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6

3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4%

120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4%

125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6%

133.8 133.8 137.8 137.9

130.7 136.2

6.1% 3.1%

142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6

141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5

140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4

2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3%

161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7%

164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6%

168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7%

174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Consumer Prices Increased 0.4 Percent in February

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 175.8, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor.
For the 12-month period ending in February, the CPI-U increased 3.5 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.4 percent in January, prior to seasonal adjustment. The February level of 172.4 was 3.5 percent higher than the index in February 2000.
The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.3 percent in February, the same as in January.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.3 percent in February, following a 0.6 percent rise in January. The energy index, which rose 3.9 percent in January and accounted for over one-half of the overall January CPI-U increase, declined 0.2 percent in February. The

The Formula
Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another.

Index point change

CPI Less previous index Equals index point change

112.5 108.5
4.0

Percent change

Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change

4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7%

index for energy services fell 1.0 percent, largely as a result of a downturn in the index for utility natural gas--down 2.4 percent after increasing 17.4 percent in January. The index for petroleum-based energy rose 0.7 percent in February. The food index, which rose 0.3 percent in January, increased 0.5 percent in February, reflecting a sharp turnaround

in the index for fruits and vegetables. The housing index rose 0.2 percent
in February, following an increase of 1.0 percent in January. The index for fuels and utilities, which rose 5.9 percent in January, declined 1.0 percent in February. Charges for natural gas and for electricity declined 2.4 and 0.3 percent, respectively, after advancing 17.4 and 2.6 percent in January. Fuel oil prices, which turned down in January, declined 2.9 percent in February.
The transportation component rose 0.4 percent in February after increasing 0.3 percent in January. Gasoline prices turned up in February, registering their first increase since September. The index for gasoline increased 1.2 percent and accounted for over three-fifths of the overall February transportation increase.
The index for apparel ended three months of declines, increasing 0.8 percent in February. Medical care costs rose 0.5 percent for the month, 4.6 percent higher than February of 2000.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
197.7
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
173.0

148.3

123.7

99.0

1987-88 = 100

74.4

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

Georgia's Leading Index declines 0.9 percent in February

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.

***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.9 percent in February to 165.7 from a revised 167.2, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 1.5 percent from February of 2000.
State revenues reversed January gains, declining 20.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. Most of January's revenues were from prepaid tax collections.
Employment figures for February were mixed, as total nonagricultural payroll employment grew 0.1 percent after seasonal adjustment. Manufacturing employment increased 0.3 percent for the month. The number of unfilled job openings increased 9.2 percent during

Recent 12 Months
69.5 Leading Coincident
67.5
65.5
63.5
61.5 1993 = 100
59.5
The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001

February, erasing January's decline. The Index of Coincident
Indicators dropped 0.4 percent in February, to 164.6, from a revised January index of 165.3. The growth of the Coincident Index from February of 2000 was also 1.5 percent.
Construction spending was off during February, with residential construction down 6.7 percent and nonresidential construction decreasing 21.7 percent.
Retail employment declined 0.4 percent for the second consecutive month. The state unemployment rate grew to 3.2 percent, although the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.18 percent for the month.
Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

February 2001

Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

Feb 2001

Jan 2001

Feb 2000

Percent Change Jan 2001
to Feb 2001

Percent Change Feb 2000
to Feb 2001

Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Workweek

4,043,027 729,923 577,712 40.0

4,040,180 732,765 576,177 40.7

3,962,154 735,540 606,458 41.6

0.07 -0.39 0.27 -1.55

2.04 -0.76 -4.74 -3.84

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$523.18

$525.05

$534.59

-0.36

-2.14

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled Initial Unemployment Claims Continued Unemployment Claims

$297.60 11,955 45,517
195,343

$299.85 10,951 50,354 211,150

$315.02 18,335 27,421 134,472

-0.75 9.17 -9.60 -7.49

-5.53 -34.80 66.00 45.27

Unemployment Rate

3.2%

3.0%

3.6%

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.18%

1.18%

0.83%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

44,725

Residential Construction (building permits)

8,054

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $438,065,000

56,975 8,628
$559,265,000

54,602 8,125
$391,992,000

-21.50 -6.66 -21.67

-18.09 -0.88 11.75

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$373,138,800 $476,375,600 $346,588,900

-21.67

7.66

New Business Corporations

4,498

4,880

4,588

-7.81

-1.95

Total State Revenues

$1,084,760,000 $1,358,146,000 $1,025,035,000

-20.13

5.83

Deflated Total State Revenues

$617,042,100 $775,640,200 $604,027,700

-20.45

2.15

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001 5

Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.14 1999-2000 2000-2001
4.06

MILLIONS

3.97

3.89

3.80

3.72

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
3,825,767 3,861,103 3,877,047 3,894,075 3,901,321 3,910,888 3,922,056 3,942,523 3,955,229 3,963,656 3,965,660 3,962,154

2000-2001
3,987,167 4,004,242 4,000,028 3,995,864 4,005,404 4,005,559 4,009,019 4,006,980 4,010,546 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,043,027

Retail Employment

787.7

1999-2000

2000-2001

762.0

736.2

THOUSANDS

710.5

684.7

659.0

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
691,702 696,718 702,588 707,123 712,012 715,731 715,285 724,116 729,968 740,637 733,876 735,540

2000-2001
740,516 746,262 744,202 743,872 746,516 746,312 745,849 753,997 758,707 735,734 732,765 729,923

Manufacturing Employment

620

1999-2000

2000-2001

608

596

THOUSANDS

585

573

561

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

6 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
597,430 597,419 598,033 599,502 597,951 600,274 599,835 600,686 601,405 601,977 605,180 606,458

2000-2001
604,713 605,222 605,314 604,183 604,587 602,562 602,969 603,601 599,711 582,143 576,177 577,712

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

43.3

1999-2000

2000-2001

42.5

HOURS

41.6

40.8

39.9

39.1

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
41.7 41.9 42.1 42.0 41.7 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.1 42.4 41.9 41.6

2000-2001
41.3 41.7 40.6 41.1 41.3 41.5 40.8 41.5 41.1 40.8 40.7 40.0

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$562

1999-2000

2000-2001

$549

DOLLARS

$536

$523

$510

$497

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
$512.21 518.51 526.24 522.68 517.85 514.01 524.12 528.36 539.58 544.48 537.38 534.59

2000-2001
$530.86 539.06 520.69 525.93 533.24 541.00 535.46 544.57 544.07 535.92 525.05 523.18

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$334 $324

1999-2000

2000-2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1999-2000

2000-2001

DOLLARS

$315

$306

$296

$287

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

$310.43 311.98 316.63 314.49 310.65 307.61 312.16 314.12 320.61 323.52 318.54 315.02

$310.26 314.87 303.97 305.24 308.95 313.08 308.27 312.97 312.50 308.00 299.85 297.60

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

23.1

1999-2000

2000-2001

20.0

THOUSANDS

16.8

13.7

10.5

7.4

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

* Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
18,765 18,487 15,668 14,848 16,182 17,257 17,162 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335

2000-2001
19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955

Initial Unemployment Claims

60.5

1999-2000

2000-2001

51.3

THOUSANDS

42.1

32.8

23.6

14.3

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000 30,761 30,350 25,153 28,799 31,190 31,429 29,589 27,653 28,483 32,536 30,852 27,421

2000-2001 26,430 25,740 28,821 29,186 31,422 34,375 34,313 38,271 45,620 43,776 50,354 45,517

Continued Unemployment Claims

244.5

1999-2000

2000-2001

213.5

THOUSANDS

182.4

151.4

120.4

89.4

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000 143,998 138,920 123,364 156,918 128,964 162,340 132,319 139,033 154,977 138,052 153,719 134,472

2000-2001 122,763 131,083 148,971 135,417 151,092 152,030 147,905 184,770 164,381 167,498 211,150 195,343

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate *

4.8

1999-2000

2000-2001

4.3

PERCENTAGES

3.8

3.3

2.8

2.3

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

* Not Seasonally Adjusted

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.41

1999-2000

2000-2001

1.25

PERCENTAGES

1.10

0.95

0.79

0.64

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
4.1 % 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.6

2000-2001
3.5 % 3.4 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 2.9 3.0 3.2

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
0.88 % 0.84 0.87 0.88 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83

2000-2001
0.83 % 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18

New Motor Vehicle Sales

70

1999-2000

2000-2001

61

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month

1999-2000

2000-2001

THOUSANDS

52

44

35

27

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

46,936 38,327 41,935 52,760 42,573 46,239 42,194 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602

55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

10,118

1999-2000

2000-2001

9,047

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

7,976

6,905

5,834

4,762

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
7,717 7,969 6,088 8,793 7,155 7,489 7,323 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125

2000-2001
8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054

Nonresidential Construction

$999

1999-2000

2000-2001

$830

$660

MILLIONS

$491

$322

$153

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$890

1999-2000

2000-2001

$740

$589

MILLIONS

$439

$289

$139

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

10 Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
$781,907,000 500,787,000 487,330,000 545,301,000 572,688,000 539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000

2000-2001
$555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
691,341,300 442,782,500 430,884,200 482,140,600 506,355,400 476,612,700 419,783,400 323,286,500 381,643,700 640,443,900 424,911,600 346,588,900

2000-2001
473,353,500 672,160,100 467,348,400 557,669,500 362,927,600 334,758,100 499,425,000 442,316,900 311,669,500 399,522,100 476,375,600 373,138,800

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

5,765

1999-2000

2000-2001

5,255

CHARTERS

4,744

4,234

3,723

3,213

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

* Includes limited liability companies

Total State Revenues

$1,579

1999-2000

2000-2001

$1,417

$1,254

MILLIONS

$1,091

$929

$766

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
4,270 4,535 3,896 4,318 4,334 4,316 4,622 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588

2000-2001
4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000

2000-2001

$974,892,000 1,018,366,000 1,014,950,000 1,020,119,000 1,013,915,000 1,152,734,000
956,358,000 1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000

$1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$915

1999-2000

2000-2001

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$821

$727

$633

$539

$445

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

Month
M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

1999-2000
$590,843,600 612,735,300 610,679,900 613,790,000 608,227,400 689,846,800 569,599,800 643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700

2000-2001
$585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / April 2001 11

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