GEORGIA
Economic
Indicators
A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends
January 2002
Volume 7, Issue 11
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner
Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report November 2001 Data
Volume 7, Issue 11 January 2002
Cover art: Oglethorpe County Courthouse, Lexington, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner
Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002 1
Introduction
G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center
2 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002
Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index
YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
JAN
62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1
FEB
62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8
MAR
63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2
APR MAY
63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7
JUN
65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0
JUL
65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5
AUG
66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5
SEP
66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3
OCT
67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
NOV
67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4
DEC
67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0
AVG
65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1
CPI RATE
9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4%
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
The CPI Contracts for the Second Consecutive Month
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2 percent in November, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.4 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ending in November, the CPI-U increased 1.9 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.2 percent in November, prior to seasonal adjustment. The November level of 173.7 was 1.6 percent higher than the index in November 2000.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in November after decreasing 0.3 percent in October. The energy index, which declined 6.3 percent in October, fell 4.4 percent in November. The index for petroleumbased energy declined 9.4 percent, while the index for energy services rose 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy,
Georgia Department of Labor
the CPI-U rose 0.4 percent, following increases of 0.2 percent in each of the four preceding months.
During the first 11 months of 2001, the CPI-U rose at a 1.9 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. The energy index, which increased in double digit figures in both 1999 and 2000, has declined at an 11.1 percent SAAR thus far in 2001. In the first 11 months of 2001, petroleum-based energy costs decreased at a 21.3 percent SAAR, and charges for energy services fell at a 0.6 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U has advanced at a 2.9 percent rate thus far in 2001, compared with a 2.6 percent rise for all of 2000.
The housing index increased 0.4 percent in November, following declines in each of the preceding two months. Each of the three major housing groups contributed to the acceleration.
The index for fuels and utilities declined for the fifth consecutive month, down 0.1 percent in November. The indexes for fuel oil and for electricity declined 4.1 and 1.0 percent, respectively, more than offsetting a 2.6 percent rise in the index for natural gas.
The transportation component declined 1.5 percent in November. The index for gasoline declined sharply for the second consecutive month, down 10.1 percent in October. Gasoline prices have fallen 28.9 percent in the six-month period following the peak level reached in May 2001.
Medical care costs rose 0.5 percent in November to a level 4.8 percent higher than a year ago. In November, the index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.6 percent. Charges for professional services and hospital and related services increased 0.2 and 0.7 percent, respectively.
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002 3
Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
197.7
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
173.0
148.3
123.7
99.0
1987-88 = 100
74.4
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
Georgia's Leading Economic Indicator Levels Out
Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators moved down slightly, falling less than 0.1 percent in November to 168.5 from a revised 168.7, after seasonal adjustment.
The index recorded mixed results during the month of November that offset each other. New business corporations filled with the state dropped 37.7 percent in November, reversing October's 12.2 percent increase. Sales of motor vehicles declined 1.0 percent in November. Building permits for residential construction declined 7.8 percent during the current reporting period.
Nonresidential construction increased 24.6 percent in value during the month, offsetting the Leading index's downward
Recent 12 Months
175.1 Leading Coincident
170.8
166.4
162.0
157.7 153.3
1987-88 =100
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The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.
movement. Jobless claims filled with the state decreased 11.5 percent, after reaching it's highest point of the year in October.
The index of Coincident Indicators declined 1.2 percent in November to 158.0 from a revised 159.9. Nonagricultural employment contracted 0.7 percent in November. Retail employment followed suit, slipping 0.5 percent over the month. The insured unemployment rate increased to 2.0 percent, after posting 1.9 percent in October. Georgia's total unemployment rate declined onetenth of a percentage point to 4.1 percent. The nation's unemployment rate increased to 5.3 percent, up three-tenths of a percent from the previous month.
4 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002
Georgia Department of Labor
Data Summary
November 2001
Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted
Nov 2001
Oct 2001
Nov 2000
Percent Percent
Change Change
Oct 2001 Nov 2000
to
to
Nov 2001 Nov 2001
Nonagricultural Employment
3,950,174
3,978,364
4,030,439
-0.71
-1.99
Retail Employment
726,032
729,396
733,610
-0.46
-1.03
Manufacturing Employment
555,863
561,402
581,835
-0.99
-4.46
Manufacturing Workweek
40.2
39.8
40.9
1.09
-1.69
Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$530.64
$524.30
$543.47
1.21
-2.36
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$299.12
$295.05
$312.16
1.38
-4.18
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
7,341
7,733
12,566
-5.06 -41.58
Initial Unemployment Claims
67,227
75,965
45,620
-11.50
47.36
Continued Unemployment Claims
320,187
378,429
164,381
-15.39
94.78
Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted)
4.1%
4.2%
3.2%
Insured Unemployment Rate
2.04%
1.94%
1.04%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
48,732
49,229
44,090
-1.01
10.53
Residential Construction (building permits)
6,837
7,414
7,210
-7.78
-5.17
Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $609,613,000 $489,145,000 $365,900,000
24.63
66.61
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$508,858,900 $407,960,800 $313,807,900
24.73
62.16
New Business Corporations
2,906
4,666
4,779
-37.73 -39.21
Total State Revenues
$1,099,578,000 $1,139,708,000 $1,146,891,000
-3.52
-4.13
Deflated Total State Revenues
$619,829,800 $641,366,300 $658,754,200
-3.36
-5.91
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002 5
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.10 1999-2000 2000-2001
4.06
MILLIONS
4.02
3.97
3.93
3.89
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 3,993,871 4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019 4,020,945 4,030,439
2000-2001
4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,048,042 4,040,782 4,027,874 4,009,907 3,992,972 3,978,364 3,950,174
Retail Employment
753.5
1999-2000 2000-2001
741.6
729.7
THOUSANDS
717.8
705.9
694.0
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 721,421 723,043 721,309 718,769 726,337 733,610
2000-2001
735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 739,086 739,249 738,695 733,350 729,506 729,396 726,032
Manufacturing Employment
613
1999-2000
2000-2001
598
583
THOUSANDS
568
554
539
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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 587,924 589,020 585,594 585,806 585,901 581,835
2000-2001
582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,023 567,924 569,034 564,976 563,222 561,402 555,863
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Manufacturing Workweek
43.8
1999-2000
2000-2001
42.6
41.4
HOURS
40.1
38.9
37.7
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.0 41.3 40.9
2000-2001
40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 40.3 40.3 40.8 40.7 39.8 40.2
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$561
1999-2000
2000-2001
$547
DOLLARS
$534
$521
$507
$494
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
$544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 528.35 535.27 540.94 539.33 542.76 543.47
2000-2001
$535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 523.71 531.47 527.00 531.54 538.07 524.30 530.64
Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$338 $325
1999-2000
2000-2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1999-2000
2000-2001
DOLLARS
$313
$300
$287
$275
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Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
$323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 306.64 310.12 313.05 310.49 311.93 312.16
$308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.71 298.58 296.90 299.46 301.78 295.05 299.12
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002 7
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*
24.5
1999-2000
2000-2001
20.0
THOUSANDS
15.5
11.0
6.6
2.1
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* Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor
Initial Unemployment Claims
96.0
1999-2000
2000-2001
78.0
THOUSANDS
59.9
41.9
23.9
5.9
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566
2000-2001 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 7,826 8,612 8,662 7,485 7,733 7,341
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000 32,536 30,852 27,421 26,430 25,740 28,821 29,186 31,422 34,375 34,313 38,271 45,620
2000-2001 43,776 50,354 45,517 45,582 52,459 60,285 50,442 59,258 50,742 49,812 75,965 67,227
Continued Unemployment Claims
486.5
1999-2000
2000-2001
393.2
THOUSANDS
299.9
206.5
113.2
19.9
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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
138,052 153,719 134,472 122,763 131,083 148,971 135,417 151,092 152,030 147,905 184,770 164,381
2000-2001
167,498 211,150 195,343 182,949 264,655 239,858 246,537 283,727 268,978 266,143 378,429 320,187
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate *
5.1
1999-2000
2000-2001
4.5
PERCENTAGES
4.0
3.4
2.9
2.4
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* Not Seasonally Adjusted
Insured Unemployment Rate
2.51
1999-2000
2000-2001
2.08
PERCENTAGES
1.65
1.22
0.79
0.36
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Monthly Data
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
3.9 % 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2
2000-2001
3.0 % 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
0.85 % 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04
2000-2001
1.21 % 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 1.58 1.75 1.65 1.71 1.94 2.04
New Motor Vehicle Sales
66
1999-2000
2000-2001
58
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
1999-2000
2000-2001
THOUSANDS
50
43
35
27
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Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090
36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 42,210 41,964 50,688 49,561 49,229 48,732
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002 9
Georgia Economic Indicators
Residential Construction
9,935
1999-2000
2000-2001
9,128
HOUSEHOLD UNITS
8,320
7,512
6,704
5,896
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210
2000-2001 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 9,005 8,751 7,498 6,801 7,414 6,837
Nonresidential Construction
$987
1999-2000
2000-2001
$820
$653
MILLIONS
$486
$319
$152
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Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$875
1999-2000
2000-2001
$727
$580
MILLIONS
$433
$285
$138
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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
$724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000
2000-2001
$469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 495,771,000 554,259,000 454,058,000 544,199,000 489,145,000 609,613,000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
$646,157,000 421,557,000 343,551,300 487,899,000 689,786,700 477,932,900 568,813,200 368,260,200 339,383,400 505,888,700 446,500,400 313,807,900
2000-2001
$401,231,000 476,375,600 372,187,800 373,156,100 523,642,400 338,730,200 416,614,300 466,548,000 380,921,100 455,778,100 407,960,800 508,858,900
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
New Business Corporations*
6,594
1999-2000
2000-2001
5,952
5,310
CHARTERS
4,668
4,026
3,384
2,742
2,100
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* Includes limited liability companies
Total State Revenues
$1,683
1999-2000
2000-2001
$1,482
$1,281
MILLIONS
$1,080
$879
$679
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779
2000-2001 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 4,686 4,511 5,903 4,159 4,666 2,906
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
$1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000
2000-2001
$1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000
919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 1,272,264,000 1,068,000,000 1,099,342,000 1,038,457,000 1,139,708,000 1,099,578,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$940
1999-2000
2000-2001
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
MILLIONS
$832
$723
$614
$505
$397
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Month
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
1999-2000
$621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200
2000-2001
$636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 714,755,100 601,690,100 619,347,600 582,421,200 641,366,300 619,829,800
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2002 11
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