GEORGIA
Economic
Indicators
A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends
July 2000
Volume 6, Issue 5
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner
Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report May 2000 Data
Volume 6, Issue 5 July 2000
Cover art: St. Marys, Georgia - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia
Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner
Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000 1
Introduction
G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Data Sources
Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center
2 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000
Georgia Department of Labor
Consumer Price Index
YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
JAN
58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7
FEB
59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7
MAR
59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1
APR
60.0 63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2
MAY
60.3 64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3
JUN
60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2
JUL
61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7
AUG
61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1
SEP
61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9
OCT
61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2
Chart is not seasonally adjusted
NOV
61.9
DEC
62.1
AVG
60.6
CPI RATE
6.7%
67.4 67.7
65.2
9.0%
75.9 76.7
72.6
13.3%
85.5 86.3
82.4
12.5%
93.7 94.0
90.9
8.9%
98.0 97.6
96.5
3.8%
101.2 101.3
99.6
3.8%
105.3 105.3 103.9
3.9%
109.0 109.3 107.6
3.8%
110.4 110.5 109.6
1.1%
115.4 115.4 113.6
4.4%
120.3 120.5 118.3
4.4%
125.9 126.1 124.0
4.6%
133.8 133.8 130.7
6.1%
137.8 137.9 136.2
3.1%
142.0 141.9 140.3
2.9%
145.8 145.8 144.5
2.7%
149.7 149.7 148.2
2.7%
153.6 153.5 152.4
2.5%
158.6 158.6 156.9
3.3%
161.5 161.3 160.5
1.7%
164.0 163.9 163.0
1.6%
168.3 168.3 166.6
2.7%
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
U.S. consumer prices increase 0.1 percent during May
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI) was up 0.1 percent from April to May, a third month of modest increase following the surge in inflation during February and March. The unadjusted index rose 3.1 percent from May of 1999.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.1 percent in May, before seasonal adjustment.
The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. The annual rate of increase for the core index is up 2.7 percent thus far in 2000, compared to 1.9 percent in all of 1999.
Acceleration in the indexes for shelter, transportation, medical care and tobacco products have contributed to the larger rate of advance for core inflation during the last five months.
The food and beverages index advanced 0.5 percent in May. The index for food at home, which was unchanged in April, rose 0.7 percent in May. Fruits and vegetables erased the 0.4 percent decline in April and were
The Formula
Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another.
Index point change
CPI Less previous index Equals index point change
112.5 108.5
4.0
Percent change
Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change
4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7%
up 1.6 percent in May. Prices for fresh vegetables were up 5.8 percent, largely due to weather related problems. Meat prices were also higher, up 0.8 percent for the month, while bakery products increased 0.7 percent. The index for dairy products, which increased 0.9 percent in April, declined 0.6 percent in May.
Housing costs were up slightly in May,
Georgia Department of Labor
growing 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in April. Rent increased by 0.3 percent and lodging away from home was up 0.7 percent since April.
Transportation costs declined for the second month in a row, down 0.5 percent in May, reflecting another drop in gasoline prices.
Apparel prices declined 0.2 percent for the month, following a 0.5 percent drop in April. On an unadjusted basis, apparel declined 0.8 percent, reflecting discounts in women's clothing.
Medical care costs rose 0.3 percent for May, reflecting a 4.0 percent increase over May of 1999. The medical care services index was up 0.3 percent, as were the medical care commodities.
Recreational costs increased 0.3 percent in May, pressured by increases in video and audio products and services.
Communication costs grew 0.1 percent. Prices for personal computers and peripherals dropped 0.7 percent.
Other goods and services declined 0.6 percent in May.
Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000 3
Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
175
Leading indicators
164.8
Coincident indicators
154.6
144.4
134.2
124
113.8
103.6
93.4
1987-88 = 100
83.2
73 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
Leading Index declines 0.5 percent in May
Editor's Note: All indicators have been seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators dropped 0.5 percent during May to 161.52 from a revised 162.35. On average, the index has declined by 0.3 percent over the last six months, while growth over the past twelve months was 4.1 percent. The Coincident Indicators Index also fell in May, to 162.63 from a revised 163.97 for April, a decline of 0.8 percent.
Leading Indicators forecast economic activity three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.
Construction showed the biggest decline among the Leading Index
components. Nonresidential construction fell sharply from the April high of 433,900,000 to 423,800,000 in May, after seasonal adjustment. Residential construction was off 0.7 percent for the month.
Motor vehicle sales showed a 0.8 percent decline for May which is a partial reflection of increasing interest rates.
The number of new corporate charter applications in Georgia increased 18.6 percent in May.
Contributions to the Coincident Index were mixed, the largest component move was in state revenues, up 2.93 percent over April. This was the third consecutive month of
growth in state revenues and a 5.09 percent increase from May of 1999.
The employment figures for April were mixed. Retail employment was down 0.25 percent and manufacturing employment was off 0.2 percent during May. However, after seasonal adjustment, total nonagricultural employment showed an increased 0.1 percent.
Weekly manufacturing earnings declined 0.7 percent in May, and productivity, as measured by average hours worked, was down 0.5 percent for the month.
Unemployment grew in May as initial claims were up 8.9%.The insured unemployment rate was unchanged from April to May.
4 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000
Georgia Department of Labor
Data Summary
May 2000
Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted
May 2000
Apr 2000
May 1999
Percent Change Apr 2000
to May 2000
Percent Change May 1999
to May 2000
Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Workweek Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
4,011,000 745,500 605,700 41.4 $534.47
4,005,000 747,400 606,700 41.6 $538.35
3,874,000 703,100 598,700 42.1 $526.31
0.15 -0.25 -0.16 -0.48 -0.72
3.38 6.30 1.34 -1.19 2.29
Deflated Manufacturing Earnings
$312.01
$314.46
$316.67
-0.78
-0.70
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled
17,824
18,293
15,595
-2.56
17.30
Initial Unemployment Claims
23,820
27,359
30,363 -12.94
-9.89
Continued Unemployment Claims
109,224
114,985
144,222
-5.01
-20.27
Unemployment Rate
3.3%
3.1%
3.7%
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.87%
0.87%
0.89%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
52,235
52,646
41,879
-0.78
25.71
Residential Construction (building permits)
7,993
Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $423,800,000
7,632 $433,900,000
7,271 $448,500,000
4.73 -2.33
4.96 -3.26
Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$407,900,000 $332,800,000 $407,900,000
22.57
-18.41
New Business Corporations
5,102
4,302
3,853
18.60
11.65
Total State Revenues
$1,108,903,000 $1,077,300,000 $1,055,218,000
2.93
2.09
Deflated Total State Revenues
$547,346,000 $629,264,000 $619,589,000 -13.02
1.56
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000 5
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Employment
4.14
1998-99
1999-2000
4.03
MILLIONS
3.93
3.82
3.72
3.61
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99 3,735,000 3,743,000 3,761,000 3,770,000 3,779,000 3,789,000 3,795,000 3,811,000 3,829,000 3,845,000 3,863,000 3,874,000
1999-2000 3,885,000 3,905,000 3,914,000 3,920,000 3,940,000 3,949,000 3,953,000 3,977,000 3,981,000 3,992,000 4,005,000 4,011,000
Retail Employment
777.0
1998-99
1999-2000
751.6
726.2
THOUSANDS
700.8
675.4
650.0
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
678,700 678,800 679,900 682,800 685,800 686,700 686,000 688,200 693,300 694,300 698,100 703,100
1999-2000
706,200 711,000 715,400 718,400 722,100 726,200 729,500 738,700 739,600 742,800 747,400 745,500
Manufacturing Employment
613
1998-99
1999-2000
608
603
THOUSANDS
597
592
587
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6 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
593,700 594,900 596,300 597,600 598,500 599,200 599,400 597,100 597,600 598,100 598,900 598,700
1999-2000
599,100 598,400 599,900 599,400 600,500 601,400 603,100 605,100 607,100 605,500 606,700 605,700
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Manufacturing Workweek
42.5
1998-99
1999-2000
42.2
HOURS
41.8
41.5
41.1
40.8
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
42.0 42.1 41.7 41.3 41.8 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.4 41.8 41.9 42.1
1999-2000
42.0 41.8 41.8 41.2 41.7 42.0 42.1 41.9 41.9 41.4 41.6 41.4
Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$554
1998-99
1999-2000
$540
DOLLARS
$527
$513
$499
$486
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
505.76 507.07 503.01 501.35 506.09 502.22 505.25 508.27 506.64 513.57 518.01 526.31
1999-2000
523.59 519.91 524.43 524.44 527.96 537.59 537.75 538.11 537.98 532.21 538.35 534.47
Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings
$327
1998-99
1999-2000
$321
DOLLARS
$316
$310
$305
$299
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Georgia Department of Labor
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
310.28 310.70 307.84 306.45 308.59 306.23 308.27 309.35 307.99 311.25 311.68 316.67
1999-2000
315.04 311.88 313.84 312.35 313.89 319.42 319.52 318.97 317.02 311.05 314.46 312.01
Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000 7
Georgia Economic Indicators
Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*
21.7
1998-99
1999-2000
19.9
THOUSANDS
18.1
16.3
14.5
12.7
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* Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor
Initial Unemployment Claims
66.9
1998-99
1999-2000
62.0
THOUSANDS
57.0
52.0
47.0
42.1
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
16,146 16,576 16,658 16,734 17,334 16,204 16,706 15,414 17,032 18,094 18,268 15,595
1999-2000
14,515 15,667 16,837 16,696 16,653 18,340 19,854 17,859 18,558 18,644 18,293 17,824
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
31,308 34,562 29,044 30,532 30,719 32,539 37,666 36,130 32,114 31,437 31,674 30,363
1999-2000
30,154 28,579 32,064 31,046 28,706 31,333 29,825 22,951 28,316 27,228 27,359 23,820
Continued Unemployment Claims
174.8
1998-99
1999-2000
157.7
THOUSANDS
140.6
123.5
106.4
89.4
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8 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
1998-99
1999-2000
Jun
141,766
150,226
Jul
147,476
134,057
Aug
149,075
152,752
Sep
138,438
147,183
Oct
133,324
142,756
Nov
147,278
155,854
Dec
128,336
130,240
Jan
119,056
138,655
Feb
134,618
130,545
Mar
138,242
116,044
Apr
144,255
114,985
May
144,222
109,224
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate
4.8
1998-99
1999-2000
4.4
PERCENTAGES
3.9
3.5
3.1
2.6
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
4.3% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.7%
1999-2000
3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 3.3%
Insured Unemployment Rate
0.99
1998-99
1999-2000
0.94
PERCENTAGES
0.89
0.85
0.80
0.75
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
0.89% 0.89% 0.87% 0.88% 0.86% 0.86% 0.87% 0.93% 0.88% 0.88% 0.86% 0.89%
1999-2000
0.91% 0.90% 0.93% 0.90% 0.90% 0.89% 0.87% 0.82% 0.81% 0.83% 0.87% 0.87%
New Motor Vehicle Sales
66
1998-99
1999-2000
59
THOUSANDS
51
43
36
28
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Georgia Department of Labor
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
37,001 43,680 40,823 41,966 44,203 46,924 46,869 51,801 49,451 47,059 39,654 41,879
1999-2000
48,222 39,522 45,419 41,856 43,937 49,237 50,336 51,858 57,586 55,368 52,646 52,235
Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000 9
Georgia Economic Indicators
Residential Construction
8,900
1998-99
1999-2000
8,373
HOUSEHOLD UNITS
7,847
7,320
6,794
6,267
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
6,930 7,214 7,458 7,551 8,127 8,169 8,205 7,091 7,475 7,279 7,568 7,271
1999-2000
7,239 6,983 7,220 7,308 7,411 7,646 7,661 8,234 8,041 7,787 7,632 7,993
Nonresidential Construction
$737
1998-99
1999-2000
$645
$552
MILLIONS
$460
$367
$275
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Deflated Nonresidential Construction
$700
1998-99
1999-2000
$596
$492
MILLIONS
$388
$284
$180
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10 Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
447,000,000 426,500,000 537,000,000 532,400,000 443,900,000 518,100,000 472,500,000 520,400,000 459,800,000 511,100,000 522,800,000 448,500,000
1999-2000
630,700,000 527,100,000 501,500,000 483,800,000 388,500,000 390,000,000 451,400,000 454,800,000 433,000,000 530,700,000 433,900,000 423,800,000
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
411,600,000 445,500,000 367,000,000 352,200,000 438,400,000 433,600,000 360,000,000 418,500,000 380,100,000 417,700,000 369,000,000 407,900,000
1999-2000
415,900,000 355,400,000 497,000,000 413,700,000 393,300,000 378,300,000 302,800,000 303,300,000 349,900,000 350,700,000 332,800,000 407,900,000
Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators
New Business Corporations*
5,663
1998-99
1999-2000
5,153
CHARTERS
4,642
4,132
3,621
3,111
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* Includes limited liability companies
Total State Revenues
$1,173
1998-99
1999-2000
$1,116
$1,059
MILLIONS
$1,003
$946
$889
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Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
3,940 3,697 3,728 3,678 3,728 3,766 3,846 3,673 4,016 4,186 4,549 3,853
1999-2000
4,356 4,198 4,361 4,519 4,255 4,679 4,787 4,645 4,535 4,598 4,302 5,102
Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1998-99
1999-2000
1,050,121,000 1,029,693,000 1,017,957,000
969,980,000 953,751,000 994,415,000 1,009,044,000 1,052,264,000 1,004,757,000 1,019,202,000 1,023,907,000 1,055,218,000
971,276,000 1,043,233,000 1,047,702,000 1,060,566,000 1,097,097,000 1,088,478,000 1,048,287,000 1,065,873,000 1,056,596,000 1,060,116,000 1,077,300,000 1,108,903,000
Deflated Total State Revenues
$690 $662
1998-99
1999-2000
Monthly Averages
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
1998-99
1999-2000
MILLIONS
Jun
644,246,000 584,402,000
$634
Jul
630,939,000 625,815,000
Aug
622,985,000 626,991,000
Sep
592,897,000 631,665,000
Oct
581,556,000 652,257,000
$606
Nov
606,351,000 646,749,000
Dec
615,646,000 622,868,000
Jan
640,453,000 631,816,000
$578
Feb
610,795,000 622,626,000
Mar
617,698,000 619,589,000
Apr
616,069,000 629,264,000
$550
May
634,909,000 647,346,000
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Georgia Department of Labor
Georgia Economic Indicators / July 2000 11
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