Georgia economic indicators, monthly report [Vol. 6, no. 10 (Dec. 2000)]

GEORGIA

Economic

Indicators

A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends

December 2000

Volume 6, Issue 10

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner

Georgia Economic Indicators
Monthly Report October 2000 Data
Volume 6, Issue 10 December 2000

Cover art: Valdosta State College - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia

Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 303031751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.
Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Department of Labor
Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000 1

Introduction

G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a
number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy.
The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company.
All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars.
Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February.
The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends.
Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177.

Data Sources

Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue
New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State
Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce
Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group
* Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center

2 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000

Georgia Department of Labor

Consumer Price Index

YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

JAN
58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7

FEB
59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7

MAR
59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1

APR
60.0 63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2

MAY
60.3 64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3

JUN
60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3

JUL
61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6

AUG
61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8

SEP
61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7

OCT
61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0

Chart is not seasonally adjusted

NOV
61.9 67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3

DEC
62.1 67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3

AVG
60.6 65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6

CPI RATE
6.7% 9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7%

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Consumer Prices Increase 0.2 Percent in October

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 174.0 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor.
For the 12-month period ending in October, the CPI-U increased 3.4 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.1 percent in October, prior to seasonal adjustment. The October level of 170.6 was 3.4 percent higher than the index in October 1999.
The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, has advanced at a 2.7 percent rate thus far in 2000, compared with a 1.9 percent rise for all of 1999.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.5 percent increase in September. Deceleration in the energy index--up 0.2 percent in October, following a 3.8 percent rise in September--was largely responsible

The Formula
Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another.

Index point change

CPI Less previous index Equals index point change

112.5 108.5
4.0

Percent change

Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change

4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7%

for the moderation in the October CPI-U.
The index for petroleum-based energy declined 1.2 percent, while the index for energy services increased 1.5 percent during the month.
The food and beverages index increased 0.1 percent in October,

the same as in September. The index for food at home also increased 0.1 percent for the second consecutive month. Among the six major food-athome groups, the index for cereal and bakery products registered the largest advance--up 0.9 percent in October.
The housing index increased 0.5 percent in October. The index for fuels and utilities, which rose 2.0 percent in September, advanced 1.3 percent in October. Shelter costs increased 0.4 percent in October, following a 0.2 percent rise in September. Within shelter, the index for rent rose 0.4 percent and the index for lodging away from home advanced 0.6 percent.
The transportation component, which increased 1.0 percent in September, turned back down in October, declining 0.4 percent. Gasoline prices declined 1.4 percent in October after increasing 5.4 percent in September.
The index for apparel rose 0.3 percent in October after advancing 1.6 percent in September.

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000 3

Georgia Index of Economic Indicators
197.0
Leading indicators Coincident indicators
167.8

138.6

109.4

80.2

1987-88 = 100

51.0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

Leading Index increased 0.3 percent during October

Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted.
***
The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3 percent in September to 164.2 from a revised 163.7, after seasonal adjustment. Since December, the Index has grown 1.4 percent and the growth from Ocotber of 1999 was 2.7 percent.
State revenues reversed the September decline of 3.4 percent and increased 4.3 percent during October, after inflation adjustment. Payroll employment was nearly unchanged for a second month, posting a gain of 0.1 percent. The Secretary of State's office reported a robust 10.7 percent growth in new corporate charters for October.

Recent 12 Months
168.8 Leading Coincident
166.2

163.6

161.0 158.3

1987-88 = 100

155.7

The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions.

The Index of Coincident Indicators was unchanged during October. The index, at 161.3 from a revised 161.2, has declined 0.5 percent year to date and grown 1.1 percent since October of 1999.
Despite the clear signs of economic slowing in Georgia, and throughout the U.S., the State's unemployment rate remains modest at 3.7 percent. Insured unemployment rate was almost unchanged at 0.94.
Retail employment increased 0.5 percent after seasonal adjustment, during October. Manufacturing hours were down 0.5 percent for the month.

4 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000

Georgia Department of Labor

Data Summary

October 2000

Georgia Economic Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

Oct 2000

Sep 2000

Oct 1999

Percent Change Sep 2000
to Oct 2000

Percent Change Oct 1999
to Oct 2000

Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment

4,008,000 743,000

4,007,000 746,000

3,921,000 719,000

Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Workweek

602,300 41.3

602,300 41.5

599,500 41.4

Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$536.65

$540.34

$525.72

Deflated Manufacturing Earnings

$308.95

$312.70

$313.11

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled

14,035

15,411

17,055

Initial Unemployment Claims

35,713

34,915

31,016

Continued Unemployment Claims

156,911

140,594

142,078

Unemployment Rate Insured Unemployment Rate

4.0% 0.93%

3.8% 0.94%

4.1% 0.89%

New Motor Vehicle Sales

47,297

51,988

43,495

Residential Construction (building permits)

7,546

7,199

7,420

Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $541,600,000 $396,900,000 $501,300,000

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$373,800,000 $346,000,000 $452,000,000

New Business Corporations

4,345

4,921

4,661

Total State Revenues

$1,130,728,000 $1,164,481,000 $1,060,218,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$650,966,033,000 $673,889,468,000 $631,458,011,000

0.02 -0.40 0.00 -0.48 -0.68 -1.20 -8.93 2.29 11.61
-9.02 4.82 36.46 8.03 -11.70 -2.90 -3.40

2.22 3.34 0.47 -0.24 2.08 -1.33 -17.71 15.14 10.44
8.74 1.70 8.04 -17.30 -6.78 6.65 3.09

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000 5

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Employment

4.12

1998-99

1999-2000

4.03

MILLIONS

3.94

3.86

3.77

3.69

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99 3,790,000 3,795,000 3,810,000 3,828,000 3,843,000 3,863,000 3,874,000 3,886,000 3,905,000 3,914,000 3,921,000 3,940,000

1999-2000 3,951,000 3,952,000 3,976,000 3,982,000 3,990,000 3,994,000 3,997,000 4,002,000 4,008,000 4,008,000 4,008,000 4,010,000

Retail Employment

781.9

1998-99

1999-2000

757.5

733.1

THOUSANDS

708.7

684.3

660.0

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
687,000 686,300 688,600 692,800 693,600 698,400 702,700 707,100 713,300 716,300 720,100 725,500

1999-2000
726,600 730,000 739,200 739,000 742,000 743,300 744,300 743,700 747,600 746,900 749,700 751,600

Manufacturing Employment

612

1998-99

1999-2000

608

604

THOUSANDS

600

596

592

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

6 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
599,300 599,300 596,900 597,600 597,800 598,700 598,500 599,400 598,300 600,300 599,700 600,600

1999-2000
601,500 602,900 604,900 607,100 605,200 606,500 605,700 604,200 604,800 602,400 602,700 602,900

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Manufacturing Workweek

42.5

1998-99

1999-2000

42.1

41.7

HOURS

41.3

40.9

40.4

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month 1998-99

Nov

41.5

Dec

41.6

Jan

41.7

Feb

41.4

Mar

41.7

Apr

41.8

May

42.1

Jun

42.0

Jul

41.7

Aug

41.8

Sep

41.4

Oct

41.8

1999-2000
42.0 42.0 41.9 41.9 41.4 41.6 41.4 41.1 41.3 41.4 41.1 40.9

Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

$557

1998-99

1999-2000

$543

DOLLARS

$529

$514

$500

$486

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
$502.29 505.14 508.10 506.44 513.31 518.33 525.01 524.95 519.80 525.18 524.92 529.69

1999-2000
$537.59 537.50 537.80 537.63 531.82 538.68 531.78 528.26 534.93 540.50 536.46 530.90

Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings

DOLLARS

$327 $321

1998-99

1999-2000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted
Month 1998-99

1999-2000

Nov

$316

Dec

Jan

Feb

$310

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

$305

Jul

Aug

Sep

$299

Oct

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

$306.27 308.20 309.25 307.87 311.10 311.87 315.89 315.85 311.82 314.29 312.64 314.92

$319.42 319.37 318.79 316.81 310.82 314.65 310.44 306.59 309.92 312.79 308.84 305.11

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000 7

Georgia Economic Indicators

Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled*

22.1

1998-99

1999-2000

19.9

THOUSANDS

17.7

15.5

13.3

11.0

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

* Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
16,201 16,615 15,363 16,892 17,895 17,960 15,368 15,026 15,781 16,752 17,010 16,813

1999-2000
18,308 19,705 17,770 18,360 18,395 17,932 17,525 16,349 15,986 15,373 13,990 13,576

Initial Unemployment Claims

43.8

1998-99

1999-2000

39.3

THOUSANDS

34.8

30.3

25.8

21.3

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
33,118 36,661 33,640 31,553 32,249 32,605 27,841 30,184 30,471 32,011 31,170 27,738

1999-2000
31,552 29,825 26,471 27,863 27,630 27,589 32,028 30,522 30,894 35,016 35,917 38,266

Continued Unemployment Claims

177.0

1998-99

1999-2000

163.0

THOUSANDS

149.0

135.0

120.9

106.9

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

8 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
146,654 130,823 128,249 137,842 142,063 143,232 140,070 152,495 131,865 151,612 143,083 140,803

1999-2000
156,162 132,689 142,193 134,380 121,723 134,577 139,839 131,576 155,473 141,349 158,128 160,017

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate

4.8

1998-99

1999-2000

4.4

PERCENTAGES

3.9

3.5

3.0

2.6

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99 1999-2000

4.0 % 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9

3.7% 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7

Insured Unemployment Rate

0.99

1998-99

1999-2000

0.95

PERCENTAGES

0.90

0.86

0.81

0.77

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
0.86 % 0.87 0.93 0.88 0.89 0.87 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.89

1999-2000
0.89 % 0.87 0.82 0.82 0.84 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.90 0.94 0.93 0.94

New Motor Vehicle Sales

66

1998-99

1999-2000

59

THOUSANDS

51

43

36

28

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99 46,749 46,523 50,703 48,362 45,891 36,539 40,673 52,987 41,550 44,542 43,239 44,672

1999-2000 48,559 49,709 50,503 56,071 53,692 47,898 50,356 45,569 42,690 51,692 46,948 46,484

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000 9

Georgia Economic Indicators

Residential Construction

8,803

1998-99

1999-2000

8,337

HOUSEHOLD UNITS

7,871

7,405

6,939

6,473

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
8,177 8,219 7,089 7,449 7,234 7,501 7,245 7,244 6,989 7,375 7,385 7,490

1999-2000
7,706 7,669 8,223 8,002 7,729 7,554 7,873 7,813 7,840 7,152 7,504 7,306

Nonresidential Construction

$682

1998-99

1999-2000

$604

$526

MILLIONS

$448

$370

$292

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Deflated Nonresidential Construction

$613

1998-99

1999-2000

$539

$466

MILLIONS

$392

$319

$245

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

10 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
$511,500,000 476,100,000 531,300,000 496,600,000 507,600,000 530,900,000 449,700,000 487,900,000 553,700,000 529,400,000 504,900,000 395,800,000

1999-2000
$402,100,000 476,800,000 480,100,000 453,400,000 558,500,000 494,800,000 510,100,000 589,400,000 414,200,000 398,100,000 545,700,000 550,700,000

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
$476,300,000 441,200,000 489,700,000 457,300,000 466,100,000 485,700,000 409,600,000 441,900,000 500,600,000 477,800,000 455,300,000 355,300,000

1999-2000
$359,300,000 424,600,000 425,600,000 400,900,000 492,900,000 434,400,000 446,700,000 514,800,000 361,100,000 347,400,000 475,300,000 478,000,000

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators

New Business Corporations*

5,663

1998-99

1999-2000

5,153

CHARTERS

4,642

4,132

3,621

3,111

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

* Includes limited liability companies

Total State Revenues

$1,291

1998-99

1999-2000

$1,206

$1,120

MILLIONS

$1,034

$949

$863

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov D ec J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct

1998-99
3,773 3,850 3,671 4,010 4,175 4,530 3,829 4,301 4,364 4,213 4,669 4,216

1999-2000
4,690 4,786 4,637 4,521 4,579 4,275 5,059 4,619 4,299 4,928 4,355 4,797

Monthly Data
Seasonally Adjusted

Month
Nov D ec J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct

1998-99
$989,938,000 1,004,623,000 1,049,336,000 1,003,201,000 1,017,487,000 1,021,501,000 1,053,407,000
990,461,000 1,035,781,000 1,042,739,000
958,823,000 1,076,132,000

1999-2000
$1,083,450,000 1,043,165,000 1,063,841,000 1,056,889,000 1,060,952,000 1,078,152,000 1,108,960,000 1,041,543,000 1,146,977,000 1,172,106,000 1,142,032,000 1,193,001,000

Deflated Total State Revenues

$737

1998-99

1999-2000

Monthly Averages
Seasonally Adjusted

MILLIONS

$694

$651

$608

$564

$521

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Month
Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1998-99
$603,620,732,000 612,948,749,000 638,670,724,000 609,848,632,000 616,658,788,000 614,621,540,000 633,818,893,000 595,945,247,000 621,344,331,000 624,020,946,000 571,067,898,000 639,793,103,000

1999-2000
$643,761,141,000 619,824,718,000 630,611,144,000 622,798,468,000 620,077,148,000 629,761,682,000 647,378,867,000 604,493,906,000 664,528,969,000 678,302,083,000 657,473,805,000 685,632,759,000

Georgia Department of Labor

Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2000 11

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