Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner GEORGIA WORKFORCE TRENDS IN BRIEF Employment Projections to 2012 Published by Workforce Information & Analysis Division Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Program Auxiliary Aids and Services Available upon Request to Individuals with Disabilities This publication is one of several produced by the Georgia Department of Labor's Workforce Information and Analysis Division presenting labor market information as part of a grant from the U.S. Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration. Other products include Georgia Workforce 2012, Georgia's Hot Careers to 2012, Georgia Jobs: 2004 2005, Georgia WIA Area Jobs: 2004 2005, Georgia WIA Area Occupational Trends, Georgia Wage Survey, Georgia WIA Area Average Occupational Wages, Georgia Career Planner, and Licensed and Certified Occupations in Georgia. AD D I T I O N A L D A T A This publication is a companion to the more in-depth Georgia Workforce 2012 publication, which analyzes the most significant trends in Georgia's population, labor force, industry employment, and occupational employment. For copies of Georgia Workforce 2012 or complete sets of industry and occupational projections for the state or any of Georgia's twenty workforce investment areas, please contact the Workforce Information & Analysis Division at the Georgia Department of Labor at (404) 232-3875 or at workforce_info@dol.state.ga.us. 2 Georgia Workforce 2012 This publication provides information and analysis about future employment trends in Georgia's workforce, those covering the decade from 2002 to 2012. These projections, which are updated every two years, are a vital tool in aiding decision-makers in a variety of activities including career counseling, education planning, and policymaking. This edition of Trends in Brief has been expanded from earlier editions to include industry employment trends as well as trends in occupational employment. The projections were developed using models that incorporated the latest available assumptions about changes in technology, employers' staffing patterns, and business practices. As such, they replace all projections previously released by the Georgia Department of Labor. The publication begins with summary highlights of the most significant trends in industry and occupational employment for the decade from 2002 to 2012. The next section analyzes industry employment growth at the sector and detailed industry level. At the detailed level, the fastest growing, the most job growth, and the industries with the most expected job losses are presented. In the occupational section, changes in employment are analyzed for the major education and training categories of jobs. In addition, the fastest growing, the most job growth, the most job losses, and the jobs with the most expected annual openings are listed for all occupations as well as the top twenty careers with the most anticipated job growth for each educational and training class. Finally, the foldout center page of this booklet contains Georgia's list of HOT Careers to 2012--the 83 occupations that combine fast growth, high wages, and plentiful (at least 100) expected annual job openings to comprise the occupations that offer the surest bet of a satisfying, rewarding career with great potential for advancement. 3 Georgia Workforce Trends in Brief H i g h l i g h t s Industry Employment Occupational Employment In 2012: Total employment is projected to grow to almost 4.9 million jobs, which is an increase of 17.5 percent over 2002 or almost 730,000 new jobs. Industry employment growth will be concentrated in the services-providing sectors of the economy, with more than 95 percent of job growth in these sectors. The services-providing sectors will account for 4.1 million jobs and goods-producing sectors will account for 773,000. Three services-providing sectors-- professional and business services, educational services, and healthcare and social assistance--will lead all sectors both in new job growth and rates of growth. Together they will account for half of all job growth. The construction industry will be the only goods-producing industry sector to show significant gains, increasing by the statewide average for all industries of 17.5 percent, or 34,000 new jobs. The health services subsector will account for one in every twelve jobs in Georgia. It will have added almost 100,000 jobs over the projection period and will have employment levels close to 400,000 workers. The administrative and support services subsector will increase by almost 96,000 jobs, largely due to increases in the employment services industry. High-technology employment will generate close to 50,000 new jobs, or almost seven percent of all new job growth. Six of the detailed industries that will lose the most jobs are in textiles and apparel manufacturing, but the losses will not be nearly as severe as during the last decade. In 2012: Workers in occupations requiring a bachelor's or higher degree will hold 20.1 percent of all jobs for a total of almost one million jobs. Workers in occupations that do not require any formal postsecondary education will be employed in 71.8 percent of all jobs, down from 73.4 percent in 2002. Employment will grow in occupations in every education and training category. More than 250,000 new jobs will be created in occupations that require short-term on-the-job training; almost 120,000 will be in occupations requiring a bachelor's degree. The remaining new jobs will be spread among the other education and training categories, but most will be in occupations that require less than a bachelor's degree. All education and training categories that require some postsecondary education will grow faster than average, led by jobs requiring an associate's degree. All categories that do not require any education beyond high school will grow slower than average. Occupations requiring short-term or moderate-term on-the-job training will account for the majority of all job openings. The openings will come from employment growth--the creation of new jobs--and from the need to replace workers who retire or leave an occupation permanently for other reasons. Workers with more education will be in higher demand, earn more, and be employed in the fastest growing occupations. Eight of the twenty fastest growing occupations are in healthcare; five are computer-related. Retail salespersons and registered nurses will gain the most new jobs--approximately 25,000 and 20,000, respectively. Of more than 750 occupations, 83 will combine above-average job growth, above-average wages, and more than 100 annual job openings to make the list of Georgia's HOT Careers to 2012. Careers on this list can be found in nearly all education and training categories. Registered nurses, general and operations managers, and elementary school teachers will be among the twenty occupations with the most annual job openings. Although the majority of the openings in these three occupations will come from job growth, most of the openings in the other occupations will result from employee turnover. Five of the twenty occupations losing the most jobs, including the top three, will be in textiles and apparel. Although declining, there will still be job openings in these occupations because of turnover. 4 Georgia Workforce 2012 Industry Employment In the year 2012 total employment in Georgia is expected to reach almost 4.9 million jobs, with almost 730,000 new jobs created across all industries during the ten-year projection period. This equates to almost 73,000 newly created jobs per year and an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent. ;; 4,163,230 4,892,300 3,254,986 1992 2002 Projected 2012 Industry Employment 5 Industry Employment by Sector All of the services-providing industry sectors will realize gains through 2012, with the exception of utilities, which is expected to decline by 0.1 percent per year. The two largest--professional and business services and healthcare and social assistance--will account for over 40 percent of all services-providing job growth through 2012. Healthcare and social assistance is expected to grow the fastest, at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent, and adding more than 125,000 new jobs; professional and business services is projected to grow 2.7 percent, increasing its share of new jobs by more than 154,000 through the projection period. The educational services sector is expected to have the next fastest rate of growth at 2.3 percent and leisure and hospitality will follow closely behind at 2.2 percent increase. Increases in transportation and warehousing and retail trade are both projected to hover near the annual average for all services-providing jobs of 1.9 percent. However, since retail trade has a much larger employment base, the change in employment levels for retail trade will be more than double that for transportation and warehousing. Wholesale trade, information, and financial activities are all expected to grow 1.4 percent annually over the next ten years, lagging the projected statewide overall annual growth rate of 1.6 percent. The residual services (other services) industry sector as well as government will both grow at a modest rate of 0.9 percent per year over the next ten years. The construction industry, the only goods-producing industry sector to post significant employment growth, is projected to increase by more than 34,000 jobs, reaching more than 230,000 jobs in 2012. Manufacturing employment is projected to show very little change over the projection period, increasing by a mere 0.2 percent annually and slightly surpassing its 2002 employment levels of nearly 474,000 jobs. But the good news is that this is in contrast to employment declines in the manufacturing sector over the past decade. Both the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting and the mining sectors are projected to contract through 2012. 6 Georgia Workforce 2012 Industry Sector Employment Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Leisure and Hospitality Other Services (except Public Administration) Government 6 5 ,1 5 0 5 5 ,2 9 0 2002 Projected 2012 7 ,2 4 0 6 ,9 4 0 2 0 ,5 5 0 2 0 ,2 6 0 1 9 5 ,9 1 0 2 3 0 ,1 9 0 4 7 3 ,5 9 0 4 8 0 ,7 6 0 2 0 4 ,6 1 0 2 3 4 ,9 0 0 4 5 1 ,0 2 0 5 3 1 ,3 3 0 1 7 7 ,2 6 0 2 1 3 ,5 7 0 1 3 2 ,3 5 0 1 5 1 ,9 2 0 2 1 2 ,7 1 0 2 4 3 ,5 2 0 4 9 6 ,0 1 0 6 5 0 ,3 4 0 3 3 1 ,4 4 0 4 1 6 ,1 3 0 3 4 3 ,3 0 0 4 6 8 ,7 1 0 3 3 8 ,3 3 0 4 2 0 ,2 6 0 4 1 0 ,8 2 0 4 5 0 ,1 8 0 2 8 6 ,5 2 0 3 1 3 ,5 2 0 Industry Employment 7 Fastest Growing Industries Detailed Industries Half of the industries projected to grow the fastest are in the healthcare and social assistance sector, the fastest-growing of the major industry sectors. Growth in health services will result from the gradual aging of Georgia's population, coupled with advances in medical technology that increase life expectancies. The demand for child daycare services is the principal reason for the significant projected growth in privately run social assistance. The combination of more women working outside the home than ever before and welfare reform legislation that requires more welfare recipients to work will contribute to the employment growth in this subsector as well. Three of the fastest-growing industries come from the professional and business services industry sector, led by growth in employment services. Although the demand for these services will not be as great as in the past, the trend toward corporate restructuring and cost cutting that popularized the use of personnel supply companies in the past will continue to generate new jobs in this industry. In addition, the use of contractors and independent consultants will lead to increased employment in management, scientific, and technical consulting services. Growth in computer systems design and related services will be generated by the expansion of electronic commerce, a growing reliance on the Internet, faster and more efficient communication, and the implementation of new technologies and applications. Other Residential Care Facilities Community Food and Housing, and Emergency and Other Relief Services Community Care Facilities for the Elderly Individual and Family Services Employment Services Residential Mental Retardation, Mental Health and Substance Abuse Facilities Child Day Care Services Outpatient Care Centers Other Support Activities for Transportation Computer Systems Design and Related Services Offices of Physicians Used Merchandise Stores Offices of Dentists Other Ambulatory Health Care Services Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services Educational Support Services Couriers Internet Service Providers and Web Search Portals General Rental Centers Other Personal Services 8 Georgia Workforce 2012 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 6.3% 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% Most Job Growth - Detailed Industries Industry employment growth will be very concentrated. These twenty detailed industries out of more than 303 analyzed by the Georgia Department of Labor are projected to account for more than 62 percent of total job growth over the projection decade. In addition to the significant projected increase in new jobs in healthcare and professional and business services, substantial gains in employment are also expected in educational services. Principally driven by the overall growth in Georgia's population, a continued commitment by elementary and secondary schools to reduce class size as well as an increase in the number of students enrolling in colleges and universities (fueled by the HOPE scholarship program) will combine to project substantial job growth in educational services over the next ten years. Employment Services Elementary and Secondary Schools Limited-Service Eating Places Full-Service Restaurants General Medical and Surgical Hospitals Offices of Physicians Department Stores Computer Systems Design and Related Services Local Government, except Education and Hospitals Child Day Care Services Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools Religious Organizations Building Equipment Contractors Self-employed and Unpaid Family Workers State Government, except Education and Hospitals Building Material and Supplies Dealers Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services Services to Buildings and Dwellings Scheduled Air Transportation Offices of Dentists 34,810 34,530 34,080 26,300 25,260 21,210 19,450 16,180 13,200 13,070 11,270 10,900 10,780 10,400 10,220 10,100 8,730 8,710 69,470 64,420 Industry Employment 9 Most Job Losses Detailed Industries Declines in industry employment are usually caused by falling demand for certain goods and services, by increased imports that reduce domestic production, or by technology that increases worker productivity, and the twenty industries on this list that are expected to lose the most jobs over the projection period are no exception. Six industries are in textiles and apparel manufacturing and one is in agriculture. Others include private households, which is expected to decline as more workers are employed through contracting services than by private households, and federal government employment, which will decline due to a shift in responsibilities to state and local governments. While declining employment often means unfavorable job prospects or limited opportunity, some openings will occur by the need to replace workers who leave an industry. -10,270 -7,490 -6,700 -4,280 -4,090 -3,380 -3,230 -2,620 -1,890 -1,780 -1,750 -1,060 -940 -900 -620 -510 -480 -380 -340 -330 10 Georgia Workforce 2012 Agriculture, Crop and Animal Production Fabric Mills Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing Fiber, Yarn, and Thread Mills Private Households Textile and Fabric Finishing and Fabric Coating Mills Federal Government, except Postal Service Converted Paper Product Manufacturing Special Food Services Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills Other Textile Product Mills Rail Transportation Direct Selling Establishments Other General Merchandise Stores Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution Apparel Knitting Mills Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant Wholesalers Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers Wired Telecommunications Carriers Pesticide, Fertilizer, and Other Agricultural Chemical Manufacturing Occupational Employment The previous section analyzed projected growth and decline in employment by industry. This section examines projected changes in a closely related area--that of occupational employment. The Georgia Department of Labor has analyzed several factors affecting employment growth for 756 detailed occupations. In the past, occupations were analyzed by the type of work performed. For example, accountants were previously classified in business and financial occupations and cashiers in sales and related occupations. However, beginning with the current edition of this publication, occupations have been analyzed by the eleven types of education and training most commonly required for employment as defined by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This method of classifying occupations is more helpful in providing career guidance. Seven of the eleven categories usually require education beyond high school, from vocational training to a first professional degree. Occupations in the remaining four categories involve skills learned through varying degrees of on-the-job training and work experience. It is important to remember, however, that in nearly all occupations, workers have a variety of educational backgrounds. Occupational Employment 11 The education and training categories and the number of detailed occupations in Georgia within each classification are: Bachelor's or higher degree First professional degree 17 occupations At least three years of full-time academic study beyond the bachelor's degree. Doctoral degree 31 occupations At least three years of full-time academic work beyond the bachelor's degree. Required for entry into most postsecondary teaching occupations as well as several jobs in the physical, biological, and social sciences. Master's degree 40 occupations One or two years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor's degree. Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience 32 occupations Mostly managerial occupations. Experience in a nonmanagerial position for which a bachelor's or higher degree is usually required. Bachelor's degree 104 occupations At least four years of full-time academic study beyond high school. Postsecondary education, but less than a bachelor's degree Associate's degree 37 occupations Two years of full-time academic study beyond high school. Postsecondary vocational training 45 occupations Completion of a vocational training program of variable length from several weeks to a year or more in a postsecondary vocational school or college. All other (no formal postsecondary education required) Work experience in a related occupation 49 occupations Skills and training acquired in a related occupation. Includes several supervisory occupations as well as occupations in which skills may be developed from hobbies or other activities besides current or past employment or from the Armed Forces. Degree not required. room instruction, such as apprenticeships and employer-sponsored training lasting up to four years. Moderate-term on-the-job training 180 occupations One to twelve months of combined on-the-job experience and informal training, which can include observing experienced workers. Long-term on-the-job training 86 occupations More than twelve months of on-the-job training or a combination of work experience and formal class- Short-term on-the-job training 135 occupations One month or less of on-the-job training or after a short demonstration of job duties. 12 Georgia Workforce 2012 Major Education and Training Categories In 2002 more than 4.1 million workers were employed in various occupations in Georgia. More than three million of these were in occupations that do not require any formal education beyond high school, the majority being in low-skill, low-pay jobs requiring only short-term on-the-job training. While workers in these occupations held the largest share of jobs in 2002, their share of jobs is expected to decline from 73.4 percent in 2002 to less than 71.8 percent in 2012. Careers requiring an associate's degree or postsecondary vocational training made up only 7.5 percent of all jobs in 2002, but they will grow nearly twice as fast as those requiring no education beyond high school, increasing to 8.0 percent of all jobs by 2012. In fact, these jobs are the fastest growing group in the state, even surpassing overall growth rates for occupations requiring a bachelor's degree or more. Workers in occupations usually requiring a bachelor's degree or more held 19.0 percent of all jobs in the state in 2002 for a total of almost 800,000 jobs. Their ten-year growth rate of 24.7 percent will place them at close to one million jobs or 20.1 percent job share by 2012. Bachelor's or higher degree 19.0% Occupational Employment by Education and Training Category 2002 Projected 2012 Pos t-s e c education but less than bache lor's 7.5% Bachelor's or higher degree 20.1% Pos t-s e c education but less than bache lor's 8.0% All other 73.4% All other 71.8% Occupational Employment 13 Job Growth Totals Education and Training Categories Occupations requiring short-term on-the-job training are expected to account for the largest portion of 2002-12 job growth, comprising one in every three new jobs created. However, these jobs are expected to be among the slowest growing of all occupations. Other occupational categories seeing significant growth in employment levels include bachelor's degree careers and careers requiring moderate-term on-the-job training. Although bachelor's degree jobs had employment only half the size of moderate-term on-the-job training in 2002, their 25.7 percent growth rate is expected to double that for moderate-term on-the-job training jobs, thereby causing bachelor's degree jobs to exceed moderate-term jobs in new job growth over the projection period. Total Employment Growth by Education and Training Category First professional degree 10,510 Doctoral degree 6,090 Master's degree Work experience plus Bachelor's or higher degree Bachelor's degree 12,140 47,150 118,550 Associate's degree 43,440 Post-secondary vocational training 37,140 Work experience in related occupation 48,960 Long-term on-the-job training 42,090 Moderate-term on-the-job training 116,690 Short-term on-the-job training 256,100 14 Georgia Workforce 2012 Job Growth Rates Education and Training Categories Fueled by the phenomenal growth in health-related occupations, careers requiring an associate's degree will be the fastest growing of all eleven categories of education and training, growing at 32.4 percent to 2012. Careers requiring a doctoral degree are expected to follow closely behind, growing at 32.0 percent as a result of the rapid growth in higher education in Georgia. In fact, career growth in all occupational categories requiring some formal education beyond high school is projected to exceed the statewide average of 17.9 percent. Career growth in all categories not requiring any education beyond high school is expected to be below average over the projection period. Percentage Employment Growth by Education and Training Category First professional degree Doctoral degree Master's degree Work experience plus Bachelor's or higher degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Post-secondary vocational training 22.5% 32.0% 27.1% 21.8% 25.7% 32.4% 20.9% Work experience in related occupation 14.7% Long-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 16.6% 12.9% 16.6% Occupational Employment 15 The Impact of Education on Earnings Wages vary greatly by occupation. Among the most important factors affecting wages in different occupations is the level of education and training required for employment. In general, the more education and training, the higher the average wage and the faster the occupation will grow. As seen in the chart below, occupational groups requiring college training are among the highest paid and fastest growing. Occupational groups that do not require any formal education beyond high school are generally among the lowest paying and slowest growing. Fast growth in occupations means that they will provide a larger share of new positions in the future, thereby providing better employment prospects. Wages and Growth Rates by Education and Training Category Education/Training/Experience Generally Required for Entry to Associated Occupations Average Wage* First professional degree $57.83 Doctoral degree 30.15 Master's degree 25.11 Work experience plus Bachelor's or higher degree 41.75 Bachelor's degree 25.57 Associate's degree 21.19 Postsecondary vocational training 16.08 Work experience in a related occupation 21.29 Long-term on-the-job training 16.43 Moderate-term on-the-job training 15.06 Short-term on-the-job training 10.10 All categories combined $17.05 * Source: 2004 Georgia Wage Survey Growth Rate 22.5% 32.0% 27.1% 21.8% 25.7% 32.4% 20.9% 14.7% 16.6% 12.9% 16.6% 17.9% 16 Georgia Workforce 2012 Annual Openings Education and Training Categories Job openings occur when new positions are added to the economy through business expansion or whenever existing jobs are vacated by workers who permanently leave an occupation. The need to replace workers who leave will normally result in more openings overall than job growth, and this trend is expected to continue. In Georgia, almost forty percent more annual job openings are projected to come from employee turnover than from business expansion through 2012. Occupations requiring short-term and moderate-term on-the-job training are expected to generate the majority of all job openings over the projection period, largely because of employee turnover. Additionally, all occupational categories requiring no formal education beyond high school are projected to create more openings from turnover than from job growth. For categories requiring some postsecondary education, the opposite is true; all but one (its growth is expected to equal its turnover) of them are expected to create more jobs from business expansion than from job turnover. Thousands 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 First professional degree Doctoral degree New Positions Job Replacements Master's degree Work experience plus Bachelor's or higher degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Postsecondary vocational training Work experience in a related occupation Long-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Occupational Employment 17 Fastest Growing Occupations Eight of the twenty fastest growing occupations are in healthcare, reflective of the phenomenal growth projected in the health services industry over the projection period. Five are computerrelated and are a by-product of rapid growth in the computer systems design industry. More than half of the occupations have average wages above the statewide average of $17.05 per hour. Medical Assistants Dental Hygienists Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Dental Assistants Physician Assistants Medical Records and Health Information Technicians Home Health Aides Social and Human Service Assistants Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software Respiratory Therapists Database Administrators Computer Software Engineers, Applications Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors Surgical Technologists Special Education Teachers, Preschool, Kindergarten, and Elementary School Special Education Teachers, Middle School Self-Enrichment Education Teachers Special Education Teachers, Secondary School Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary Computer Systems Analysts 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 18 Georgia Workforce 2012 Occupations with the Most Job Growth More than one in every three newly-created positions through 2012 will be in one of the occupations listed below. Registered nurses, the largest of all the healthcare occupations, is second on the list. The majority of these jobs are in occupations with large employment levels; many of them are part-time. More than half of them are low-skill, low-wage jobs. Retail Salespersons Registered Nurses Customer Service Representatives Cashiers Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Waiters and Waitresses General and Operations Managers Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Receptionists and Information Clerks Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand Office Clerks, General Child Care Workers Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services Medical Assistants Food Preparation Workers Computer Software Engineers, Applications 25,100 19,880 19,670 19,490 19,320 16,300 15,190 12,630 12,430 11,050 10,670 10,570 9,280 8,370 8,250 8,020 8,010 7,640 7,600 7,540 Occupational Employment 19 Occupations with the Most Annual Openings The twenty occupations on this list are projected to account for one-third of all annual job openings through 2012. Most of these require only short-term on-the-job training. Accordingly, their average wages are low and most will result from high employee turnover. Thous ands 012345678 Cashiers Retail Salespersons Waiters and Waitresses Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand Registered Nurses Customer Service Representatives General and Operations Managers Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufac- turing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Office Clerks, General Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Stock Clerks and Order Fillers Receptionists and Information Clerks Child Care Workers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers Food Preparation Workers Cooks, Fast Food First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers New Positions Job Replacements 20 Georgia Workforce 2012 Occupations with the Most Decline in Jobs Occupational employment declines usually are caused by increased imports of or decreased demand for specific goods and services, technology that increases productivity, and foreign competition. The twenty declining occupations listed below are no different. Five of them are in textiles and apparel, including the top three. This industry is projected to continue to suffer tremendously from foreign competition. Although declining employment often results in unfavorable prospects or limited opportunity, there will still be some job openings in these occupations over the projection period because of employee turnover. -3,570 -2,060 -1,940 -1,450 -1,340 -1,150 -1,120 -1,090 -1,060 -1,040 -800 -780 -730 -700 -690 -470 -350 -320 -270 -270 Sewing Machine Operators Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive Word Processors and Typists Farm, Ranch, and Other Agricultural Managers Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse Telephone Operators Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators Computer Operators Data Entry Keyers Telemarketers Loan Interviewers and Clerks Order Clerks Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders Statistical Assistants Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal Service Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers Occupational Employment 21 Most Job Growth: Graduate Degree (First Professional, Doctoral, or Master's) Job growth in these occupations is expected to be the greatest in careers relating to education and healthcare, as occupations in these two industries dominate the list below. More than three out of every four new jobs listed will be in these two industries. In addition to providing excellent prospects for jobseekers, the new jobs listed below are among the highest paid in Georgia's economy. Lawyers Instructional Coordinators Pharmacists Educational, Vocational, and School Counselors Family and General Practitioners Physical Therapists Biological Science Teachers, Postsecondary Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary Market Research Analysts Surgeons Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers Clergy Business Teachers, Postsecondary Education Teachers, Postsecondary Speech-Language Pathologists Dentists Librarians Health Educators Anesthesiologists 1,040 990 960 860 850 760 730 700 690 660 620 580 580 560 500 460 450 2,280 2,110 3,210 22 Georgia Workforce 2012 Most Job Growth: Bachelor's or Higher Degree plus Work Experience The vast majority of the careers on this list are managerial, reflecting the experience these workers usually have. The top job in this category, general and operations managers, leads occupations in all education and training classes in projected new jobs. All the occupations represented here have above average wages. General and Operations Managers Management Analysts Sales Managers Computer and Information Systems Managers Financial Managers Chief Executives Medical and Health Services Managers Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School Administrative Services Managers Marketing Managers Human Resources Managers Engineering Managers Education Administrators, Postsecondary Advertising and Promotions Managers Education Administrators, Preschool and Child Care Center/Program Public Relations Managers Vocational Education Teachers, Secondary School News Analysts, Reporters and Correspondents Purchasing Managers Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates 5,680 4,830 3,660 3,580 2,900 2,260 2,190 2,130 1,370 1,240 840 750 570 510 380 350 220 180 150 15,190 Occupational Employment 23 Most Job Growth: Bachelor's Degree The occupations in this list are projected to generate ten percent of the total job growth in all occupations for 2002-2012. Seven of these jobs relate to computers and six to education, two of Georgia's top-growth industries. Two of the top growth occupations in the state--elementary school teachers and applications computer software engineers--are in this category. All of these occupations have average wages greater the Georgia's average wage of $17.05 per hour ($35,460 annually). Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education Computer Software Engineers, Applications Computer Systems Analysts Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Vocational Education Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software Accountants and Auditors Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Vocational Education Network and Computer Systems Administrators Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education Special Education Teachers, Preschool, Kindergarten, and Elementary School Training and Development Specialists Construction Managers Database Administrators Child, Family, and School Social Workers Computer Programmers Special Education Teachers, Middle School Employment, Recruitment, and Placement Specialists Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 7,540 7,250 6,880 6,340 4,730 4,250 3,590 2,670 2,420 2,190 1,890 1,850 1,820 1,520 1,420 1,270 1,220 1,200 1,160 12,430 24 Georgia Workforce 2012 Most Job Growth: Associate's Degree Careers found in the healthcare industry account for almost 75 percent of the projected new job growth among occupations in this category. This growth is dominated by registered nurses, the second largest top-growth occupation in Georgia. Almost half of the expected new positions for jobs requiring this level of education and training will be among registered nurses. The majority of these occupations pay above average wages. Registered Nurses Computer Support Specialists Dental Hygienists Medical Records and Health Information Technicians Paralegals and Legal Assistants Radiologic Technologists and Technicians Respiratory Therapists Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technicians Physical Therapist Assistants Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians Radiation Therapists Veterinary Technologists and Technicians Industrial Engineering Technicians Diagnostic Medical Sonographers Medical Equipment Repairers Environmental Science and Protection Technicians, Including Health Chemical Technicians Broadcast Technicians Civil Engineering Technicians 5,040 2,610 2,360 2,020 1,370 1,300 1,250 640 580 510 480 370 310 280 280 270 230 210 190 19,880 Occupational Employment 25 Most Job Growth: Postsecondary Vocational Training At this level of education and training, occupations that are projected to gain the most new jobs have a variety of tasks, settings, and earnings. Six of them are health-related occupations. Four of them are mechanical. Automotive, bus and truck, aircraft, and mobile heavy equipment mechanics make up one-third of the new job growth represented here. Seven of these occupations pay above average wages, and most of the others have wages very near the statewide average. Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists Legal Secretaries Medical Secretaries Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians Real Estate Sales Agents Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines Medical Transcriptionists Surgical Technologists Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate Computer,Automated Teller, and Office Machine Repairers Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers Electrical and Electronics Repairers, Commercial and Industrial Equipment Respiratory Therapy Technicians Massage Therapists Desktop Publishers 2,130 1,970 1,760 1,420 1,280 1,200 1,130 1,090 940 930 900 640 590 540 470 360 340 310 4,230 5,790 26 Georgia Workforce 2012 Most Job Growth: Work Experience in a Related Occupation Supervisory occupations, which often require this level of training, are projected to gain many jobs over the projections decade. Two of these jobs--retail sales supervisors and office and administrative support supervisors--are also among the occupations projected to have the most annual job openings. The majority of these occupations have average wages that exceed Georgia's overall average wage. First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Production and Operating Workers Self-Enrichment Education Teachers Vocational Education Teachers, Postsecondary Food Service Managers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Non-Retail Sales Workers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers Cost Estimators First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers Purchasing Agents, Except Wholesale, Retail, and Farm Products First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Transportation and Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators Detectives and Criminal Investigators First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Personal Service Workers Chefs and Head Cooks 5,140 4,300 3,920 2,960 2,800 2,340 2,270 1,940 1,650 1,410 1,110 990 940 940 890 890 780 650 600 7,500 Occupational Employment 27 Most Job Growth: Long-term on-the-job Training Many of the occupations on this list offer apprenticeships as the usual route to job entry. Electricians, carpenters, plumbers, welders, and brick masons are just a few of the occupations requiring this level of training. Police and firefighters are also in this category. Eight of these jobs have above average wages and most of the others pay near the statewide average. Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers Cooks, Restaurant Electricians Carpenters Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers Fire Fighters Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators Bakers Machinists Automotive Body and Related Repairers Dental Laboratory Technicians Industrial Machinery Mechanics Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters Water and Liquid Waste Treatment Plant and System Operators Brickmasons and Blockmasons Compliance Officers, Except Agriculture, Construction, Health and Safety, and Transportation Coaches and Scouts Opticians, Dispensing 2,730 2,240 1,850 1,580 1,180 970 940 910 850 770 670 590 590 450 440 320 320 5,470 5,470 4,790 4,270 28 Georgia Workforce 2012 Most Job Growth: Moderate-term on-the-job Training More occupations in Georgia require this level of education and training than any other class, as 180 jobs belong to this category. The twenty occupations listed below are expected to produce almost one in every seven new jobs overall over the projection decade. Three of the jobs listed below--customer service representatives, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, and sales representatives of non-technical and non-scientific products--are among both the top jobs for employment growth and for the most anticipated job openings in the state. Customer Service Representatives Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufac- turing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Medical Assistants Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Social and Human Service Assistants Construction Laborers Correctional Officers and Jailers Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manu- facturing, Technical and Scientific Products Dental Assistants Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators Slaughterers and Meat Packers Pharmacy Technicians Painters, Construction and Maintenance Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers Sheet Metal Workers Billing and Posting Clerks and Machine Operators 12,630 10,670 7,640 6,710 6,020 5,530 4,530 4,490 3,020 2,950 2,810 2,340 1,820 1,790 1,750 1,630 1,590 1,490 1,370 19,670 Occupational Employment 29 Most Job Growth: Short-term on-the-job Training Twenty-six percent of all gains in new jobs for 2002-2012 are represented by the occupations listed below. Twelve of these occupations are among the overall leaders in expected job growth in Georgia and eleven are among the occupations with the most expected annual job openings. It turns out, however, that the majority of the annual openings in these jobs will come from high employee turnover, as a result of the relatively low average wages in these jobs. Retail Salespersons Cashiers Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Waiters and Waitresses Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Receptionists and Information Clerks Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand Office Clerks, General Child Care Workers Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services Food Preparation Workers Security Guards Packers and Packagers, Hand Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers Cooks, Fast Food Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators Personal and Home Care Aides Bill and Account Collectors Counter and Rental Clerks 25,100 19,490 19,320 16,300 11,050 10,570 9,280 8,370 8,250 8,020 8,010 7,600 6,530 5,390 5,240 5,160 4,230 3,910 3,890 3,400 30 Georgia Workforce 2012 Notes __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ 31 Notes __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ 32 Georgia Workforce 2012