POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR GEORGIA COUNTIES . 1980 - 2000 July 1975 State Data Center Division of State Planning OFFICE OF PLANNING & BUDGET 270 Washington St., S. W. Atlanta, Georgia 30334 Telephone (404) 656 - 3819 George Busbee Governor James T. Mcintyre, Jr. Director Prepared by Ron Crowe and Tom Wagner The preparation of this document was financed in part through a comprehensive planning grant from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. CPA-G A-04-06-1 056 I A INTRODUCTION The population projections in this report represent conditional forecasts of the future. Because the future is unknown to everyone, extensions of past demographic relationships must be used to help forecast the future. The choice of past relationships to be extended and those believed to have future relevance is what distinguishes these projections from those of other agencies and individuals. Every effort was made to maintain maximum objectivity in selecting assumptions upon which these projections are based. The primary purpose of these projections is to stimulate analysis and alternative assumptions and to provide planners with a starting point from which to test new variables. These projections are not meant to be a goal for any county or area, nor are they meant to constrain an area. They are intended to provide insight to county and municipal leaders as to what could occur in the absence of any major change in emphasis on their part. In terms of the accuracy of these projections two points must be emphasized. The longer the period of time between the present and the projected year, the greater the possibility of inaccuracy. Also, the larger the area and number of people concerned, the more accurate the projections should be. Baseline ~rojections The projections included in this document are best described as baseline projections. In this context baseline denotes an estimate of what can be expected if there are no substantial changes. Baseline projections are valuable in the following ways: 1) Identifying economic problems of an area. 2 2) Illuminating problems .-elating to crime, health,. environment, tax structure, etc. 3) Showing future demand on resources. 4) Policy planning and program and project evaluation purposes. The use of baseline projections can be greatly enhanced by adjusted or alternative projections. For example, a planner may wish to alter the projections slightly to determine demand on area resources such as water. However, it should be understood by all that these projections are delicately balanced among areas so that alteration of one area cannot be attempted without determining its effect on other areas of the state. For example, for the purpose of population projections Georgia cannot have more people than is projected in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' national model unless other states' projections are decreased by that number of people. Similarly, if the population projection of one county in Georgia is increased, then the projections of other counties must be decreased. II. METHODOLOGY The basic approach used in these projections was demographic. Births and deaths were projected by county on the basis of trends from 1960-~ 1973. A thirteen year migration trend by county was calculated to determine whether reversals in migration patterns had occurred in some counties since 1960. If such a reversal had occurred, the most recent data were weighed more heavily. The natural increase and migration of each county was projected for twenty-seven years using a least squares technique. On the basis 3 I of this technique each county etermined its own fertility rate over a thirteen year period. Each county's total population since 1960 was collected and, using a least squares technique, was projected to the year 2000. The results of the two approaches were compared to identify counties with unusually large or low projections. In counties where the projected population was exceptionally high or low, other curvilinear formulas were tested to try and attain a more accurate statis- tical fit. Documented cases of planned developments and military build-ups were incorporated into the projections. Each county's total population was calculated as a percentage of the total state population which was controlled to the OBERS I state total for Georgia. (OBERS state total was used because a more accurate national model could not be developed by the State Data Center. It is more appropriate to begin with a state total rather than single county totals because larger aggregates are more accurately projected.) The interim years of 1980, 1985, and 1990 were projected using a similar approach. lA major output of a program of economic measurement, analysis and projection conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), formerly the Office of Business Economics (OBE), U.S. Department of Commerce, and the Economic Research Service (ERS), u.S. Department-of Agriculture with assistance from the Forest Service. The work has been carried out under a cooperative agreement with the Water Resources Council (WRC). The program was initiated in 1964 by members of the (then) ad hoc WRC. Upon establishment of the WRC by the Water Resources Planning Act of 1965, the program became an integral part of the comprehensive water resources planning program and the periodic national assessments of water and related land resources. Several years ago the program acquired the acronym of OBERS signifying a unified effort by OBE and ERS in which an integrated set of projections was developed under a common set of assumptions and procedures. Although the OBE has been renamed the BEA the widespread acceptance of the term OBERS has led to its continued use as a descriptive title of the projection program. The general assumptions hich underlie these projec~ions are as follows: 1) There will be no war, natural disaster or other major disturbance of this magnitude. 2) No attempt was made to allow for future economic fluctuations. 3) Growth can be achieved without an ecological disaster. 4) There will be no major medical breakthroughs which will alter mortality. POPULATl I: PROJECTIONS AREA NUMBER OF I~HABITANTS 1970 1980 1985 1990 2000 GEOR6IA 4587930. 5151300. 5514300. 5897900. 6459300. APPLING ATKINSON BACON BAKER BALDwIN BANKS BARRv~ BARlOW BEN HILL BERRJEN BIBB SLECKLEY BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE BUTTS CALHOUN CAPlDEN CANDLER CARROLL CATOOSA CHARLTON CHATHA" CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOO6A CHEROKEE CLARICE CLAY CLAYTON CLINCH C08B COFFEE COLQUITT COLU"BIA COOK COlli ETA CRAWfORD CRISP 12726. 5879. 8233. 3875. 34240. 6833. 16859. 32911. 13171. 11556. 143366. 10291. 5940. 13743. 6539. 31585. 18255. 10560. 6606. 11334. 6412. 45404. 28271. 5680 .. 187816. 25813 .. 20541. 31059. _65177. 3636. 98126. 6405. 196793. 22828. 32298. 22327. 12129. 32310. 5748. 1 a087. 14800. 5500. 8400. 3400. 35500. 6000. 20200. 41600. 15900. 12000. 147400. 9300. 7900 .. 12800. 8900. 34600. 17800. 14200. 6200. 12300. 6000. 56200. 33000 .. 6000. 179700. 16100 .. 21300. 41400. - 77400 .. 3300. 152700 .. 6300. 260600. 26300. 32700. 30400. 12100. 50400. 6100. 21200. 15800. 5300. 8600. 3300. 37300. 5800. 22200. 45900. 11400. 12200. 152500. 9000. 8800. 12400. 10000. 36700. 17600. 16000. 6100. 13000. 5900. 61100. 35300. 6100. 182600. 17600. 21100. 46300. -83100. 3200. 182300. 6200. 296300. 28000. 33000. 35300. 12100. 61800. 6400. 22800. 16900. 5200. 8900. 3200. 39300. 5700. 24300. 50500. 19000. 12500. 158300. 8800. 9800. 12000. 11200. 39000. 17500. 17900. 6000. 13800. 5800. 67600. 37800. 6200. 186200. 19100. 22200. 51300. -89200. 3100. 213200. 6200. 333800. 29900. 33300. 40400. 12200. 73700. 6600. 21t500. 18500. 4700. 9000. 2900. 41900. 5100. 27800. 57800. 21500. 12600. 164200. 1900. 11500. 10800. 13300. 42200. 16600. 21200. 5600. 14900. 5300. 17000. 41500. 6200. 186900. 21600. 22400. 59700. _98300. 2800. 267700. 6000. 397400. 32600. 32900. 1t9200. 11800. 95000. 6900. 21100. I ..' POPULAT~ N PROJECTIONS AREA NU"BER OF INHABITANTS 1970 1980 1985 1990 2000 GEORGIA DADE DAWSON DECATUR OEKAlB DODGE DOOlY DOUGHERTY DOUGLAS EARLY ECHOLS EHI"'GHA'" ELBERT ePlANUEL EYANS FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN fULTON GIU"ER GLASCOCK GLYNN GORDON GRADY GREEftfE GWINNETT HABERSHAPI HALL HANCOCK HARALSON HARRIS HART HEARD HENRY HOUSTON IRWIN JACKSON JASPER JEFF DAYIS 4587930. 5157300. 5514300. 5897900. 6459300. 9910. 3639. 22310. 415387. 15658. 10404. 89639. 28659. 12682. 1924. 13632. 17262. 18357. 7290. 13357. 11364. 73742. 16928. 12784. 605210. 8956. 2280. 50528. 23570. 17826. 10212. 72349. 20691. 59405. 9019. 15927. 11520. 15814. 5354. 23724. 62924. 8036. 21093. 5760. 9425. 12200. 4400. 22300. 518100. 16600. 10500. 106900. 52200. 11700. 1800. 18600. 17700. 19100. 8700. 14800. 28000. 81300. 25000. 14600. 573800. 10300. ;23 00. 51100. 27600. 17600. 10800. 134600. 20400. 69800. 9100. 17800. 12400. 16100. 5500. 30700. 77600. 9000. 24600. 6800. 11100. 13700. 4700. 22300. 575000. 17100. 10600. 116300. 63600. 11400. 1700. 21700. 18100. 19300. 9200. 15400. 38300. 87000. 28900. 15900. 568900. 11100. 2300. 53200. 29600. 17500. 11200. 167~00. 20600. 75500. 9300. 19400. 12800. 1,6300. 5700. 34800. 85800. 9300. 26700. 7200. 11700. 15300. 5000. 22300. 633900. 17700. 10700. 126400. 75400. 11100. 1700. 24900. 18600. 19600. 9800. 16100. 48900. 93100. 33000. 17300. 5'65900. 11800. 2400. 55000. 31800. 17500. 11600. 201600. 21000. 81400. 9600. 21200. 13300. 16500. 5900. 39000. 9~500. 9700. 290000 7600. 12300. 17900. 5400. 21600. 732400. 18300. 10600. 142100. 96500. 10000. 1500. 30400. 18900. 19500. 10500. 17000. 68600. 102000. 40000. 19500. 539600. 13000. 2300. 56600. 35000. 16900. 12000. 263100. 20900. 90600. 9700. 23900. 13900. 16300. 6000. 46100. 108500.' 10100. 32500. 8100. 13100. POPULAT N PROJECTIONS AREA HU"8ER OF INHABITANTS 1970 1980 1985 1990 2000 GEORGIA 4587930. 5157300. 5514300. 5897900. 6459300. JEFfERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES L~"A~ LANIER LAURENS LEE LIBERTY LINCOLN LONG LOWNDES LUfIIlPI(IN plACOH "L~O I SOH 'A"lON f'lcnUFfIE ~CINYOSH ~E~IWETHER ~ILLER ~ITCHElL iliON ROE "ONT60~ERY Jll'OR6AN !lIURRA'l' l"IUSCOGEE NUlTON OCONEE OGLETHORPE PAULDING PEACH PIC Kf:NS PIEflCE P Ii( E POLK PUl"S~l PUTNAM QUI HIM~ RA9UN l\ANDOLPH 17174. 8332. 7727. 12270. 10688 .. 5031. 32738. 70~4 .. 17569. 5895. 3746. 55112. 8728. 12933 .. 13517. 5099Q 15276. 7371 .. 19461. 6424,. 18956~ 10991. 6099. 9904. 129865 161377. 26282. 7915. 7598. 17520. 15990. 9620. 9281. 7316. 29656" 8066. 8394 .. 21'80 .. 8321. 8734" 16700. 7600. 7100. 15600., 9600. 5500. 32600. 11200. 18400,. 6700. 3300. 70200 .. 9200 .. 12700 .. 16200. !oBoe. 'L,JaCi" ~WOC .. 1 <;I7v(:. 6000 .. 20200. 12500. 6400" 10600. 15900. 163000. 3Z700~ 9500~ 8600. 24900 .. 21300 .. 11500. 10200 .. 7400. 34000 .. 7700~ 9300 .. 2000 .. 10100. 3500. 16400. 7400. 6900. 17300. 9300. 5700. 33000. 13200. 20100. 7100 .. 3200. 77400. 9400. 12600. 17600. 4800 .. ';5:500. &:HW. 19900. S8lJO. 21000. 13200" 6400. 11000. 16900. 173000. 35300~ 10700. 9200" 29000. 23700. 12200. 10600. 7600. 36800. 7600. 9800. 1900. 10700. 8500. 16300. 7200. 6600. 19200. 9000. 6000. 33600. 15300. Z2000. 7600. 3100. 85000. 9700. 12600. 1 9100. 4700. iSrOG .. 8000. 20100. 5700. 21900. 14100. 6500. 11400. 18000. 178700. 39100. 12000. 9800. 33300. 26300. 12900. 11000. 7800. 39800. 7500. 10300. 1900. 11300. 8400. 15300. 650(1. 6000. 22100. 8100. 6300. 33600. 19000. 24800. 8200. 2800. 97200. 9900. 12000. 21300. 4400. 1S 00. 9008. 19900. 5200. 22900. 15200. 6400. 11900. 19500. 183800. 44400. 14100. 10700. 40800. 30400. 14000. 11~00. 8000. 44400. 7100. 11000.' 1700. 12100. 6000. POPULAr ON PROJECTIONS AREA NU~BER OF INHABITANTS 1970 1980 1985 1990 2000 GEORbIA 45879:30. 5157300. 5514300. 5897900. 6459300. RICHMOND ROCKDALE SCHLEY SCREVEN SE~INOLE SPALDING STEPHENS STEWART SU~TER TALBOT TALIAfERRO TATTNALl TAYLOR TELfAIR TERRELL THO~AS TIFT TOOM8S TOWNS TREUTLEN TROUP TURNER TWIGGS UNION UPSON WALICER ~ALTON WAR E WARREN WASHINGTON- WAY~E WEBSTER WHEELER WHITE WHITFIELD WILCOX WILKES WIllCIPliSON wORTH 162437. 18152. 3097. 12591. 7059. 39514. 20331. 6511. 26931. 6625. 2423. 16557. 7865. 11394. 11416. 34562. 27288. 19151. 4565. 5647. 44466. 8790. 8222. 6811. 23505. 50691. 23404. 33525. 6669. 17480. 17858. 2362. 4596. 7742. 55108. 6998. 10184. 9393. 14770. 152800. 27400. 2800. 12000. 8200. 43000. 21600. 5600. 28200. 6000. 2000. 15300. 7100. 12100. 10400. 38800. 30900. 19200. 5100. 5400. 44300. 9100. 8000. 7300. 25600. 54600. 30800. 33600. 6100. 15800. 19200. 2800. 4900. 8500. 62000. 7000. 10500. 10500. 17100. 151900. 32100. 2700. 11700. 8300. 45300. 22600. 5400. 28700. 5800. 2000. 14800. 6900. 12500. 10100. 41000. 32700. 19300. 5400. 5300. 44700. 9600. 8000. 1400. 21000. 51600. 34500. 34100. 5900. 15300. 19900. 2800. 4900. 9000. 65200. 7100. 10800. 11100. 18300. 151500. 37100. 2600. 1.1600. 8500. 47800. 23600. 5200. 29400. 5700. 1900. 14400. 6600. 13000. 9800. 43400. 34500. 19400. 5700. 5200. 45100. 10100. 8100. 7500. 28500. 60800. 38400. 34800. 5800. 14900. 20700. 2900. 5000. 9400. 68700. 7200. 11100. 11800. 19600. 145300. 45700. ~400. 10800. 8500. 51200. 25000. 4700. 29700. 5100. 1700. 13000. 6000. 13400. 8900. 46700. 37100. 19000. 6100. 4800. 44500. 10900. 8000. 1500. 30400. 65200. 44900. 34800. 5200. 13400. 21600. 2900. 5000. 10000. 73200. 7200. 11300.' 12700. 21400. 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