GEORGIA JOBS FOR THE FUTURE Industries and Fabricated metal products_l/ Machinery except electrical Electrical machinery, equipment & supplies Transportation equipment Other durable goods_A/ Nondurable goods manufacturing Food & kindred products I Textile mill products Apparel & related products Paper & allied products Printing, publishing & allied industries Chemicals & allied products Leather & leather products Other nondurable goods 2/ Continued Annual Average Employment United States l/ 1960 1975 1960 Geor9ia 1975 65,778 87,390 1,380.5 2,064.3 5,591 720 4,056 17,144 9,701 684 393 611 1,224 1,356 1,491 1,458 1,676 808 7,443 1,803 914 1,232 593 1,036 829 360 676 3,360 585 5,600 21,330 12,665 655 570 730 1,320 1,825 2,255 2,155 2,135 1,020 8,665 1,780 940 1,585 745 1,245 1,120 340 910 133.6 5.7 82.6 351.9 110.3 32.9 8.2 10.9 4.8 8.0 9.1 4.9 26.3 5.2 241.6 47.2 99.9 48.0 18.7 10.7 10.6 3.7 2.8 69.4 7.4 136.5 509.3 175.7 28.0 11.7 18.1 10.9 22.4 16.7 12.8 44.6 10.5 333.6 58.0 114.3 80.8 28.5 17.5 16.9 4.4 13.2 Annual Growth Rate (%) 1960 - 1975 United States Georgia 1.9 2.7 -3.3 -4.3 -1.4 1.8 2.2 3.4 1.5 2.5 loB 3.2 0.3 -1.1 2.5 2.4 1.2 3. 4 0.5 5.6 2.0 71 2.8 4.1 2.6 6.6 1.6 3.6 1.6 4.8 1.0 2.2 -0.1 1.4 0.2 0.9 1. 7 3.5 1.5 2.8 1.2 3.3 2.0 3.2 -0.4 1.2 2.0 10.9 TABLE 6. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGIA, BY MAJOR INDUSTRY, 1960 AND PROJECTED 1975, WITH ANNUAL GROWTH RATES, 1960- 1975 - continued (Employment in thousands) Industry Annua I Average Employment United :)totes 1/ Georg io 1960 1975 1960 1975 Annual Growth Rote (%) 1960- 1975 United States Georgia Transportation, Communication & Public Utilities Trade, Wholesale & Retoi I Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Services Public Administration_/ 4,508 13,210 2,832 14,508 3,209 5,340 16,870 4,040 25,240 5,025 87.4 269.8 55.0 329.3 65.2 142.4 426.1 97.9 565.7 109.6 1.1 3.3 1.6 3.1 2.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.0 3.5 ] / U.S. Deparcmenr of Labor, Bureau of Labor Scaciscics, Tomorrow's Manpower Needs; Supplemenc No. 2, Table 2. 1) Includes farm produccion and agriculrural services, forestry and fisheries. _l/ Includes ordnance, except sighcing and fire control equipmenc (SIC 19, except 194). _j/ Includes professional, sciencific and concrolling inscrumencs (SIC 38 and 194) and miscellaneous manufacturing induscries (SIC 39). N _2/ Includes cobacco (SIC 21), pecroleum refining and related induscries (SIC 29), and rubber and miscellaneous plascic produces (SIC 30). A .fl./ Includes public adminiscracion employmenc only. Governmenc agencies engaged in educacional and medical services and in activicies commonly carried on also by privace emerprises, such as conscruction, manufaccuring, cransporcacion, ere. ,. are classified in their appropriace induscry. ~~ "'-<._;-~~... . ~~<\.._. . TABLE 7. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN GEORGIA, BY MAJOR INDUSTRY, 1%0, 1967 AND PROJECTED 1975, WITH ANNUAL GROWTH RATES, 1960- 1967 AND 1967 - 1975 (Employment in thousands) lndustr All Industries Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries ~/ Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable goods manufactu.ring Lumber & wood products, except furniture Furniture & fixtures Scone,, c~..,. Farmers and Farm Workers Demond for Expans ion Number Percent 356,900 100.0 79,540 41,680 75,280 27,940 48,490 45,600 63,330 2,680 -27,640 22.3 11.7 21.1 7.8 13.6 12.8 17.7 0.7 -7. 7 Demond Replacements Number Percent 429,670 100. 0 50,860 11.8 36,990 8.6 94,550 22.0 27,470 6.4 34,020 1.9 72,830 17.0 88,370 20.6 12,7 10 2. 9 11,870 2.8 Total Demond Number -Pe-rce-nt 786,570 100.0 130,400 16.6 78,670 10.0 169,830 21.6 55,410 7.0 82,510 10.5 118,430 15.1 151, 700 19.3 15,390 1.9 -15,770 -2.0 CHANGING TRENDS IN OCCUPATIONAL DEMAND The highly dynamic job market requires a widely varied labor supply in different occupations through time. Chapters preceding have dealth primarily with forecasting man power requirements. It is also important to consider manpower resources - particularly on an estimated annual basis in order to plan training facilities and programs effectively. This chapter is devoted to an appraisal of the adequacy of supply of manpower in broad occupational groups and selected subgroups in Georgia. This chapter deals with how many individuals will be needed annually according to occupation. In the rapidly changing job market sources of workers for various occupations are numerous. Sources include training programs, armed forces, other occupations, in-migration from other areas, and new and re-entrants into the labor force. Workers at the same time are continually leaving occupation's for a wide variety of reasons - including death, retirement, occupational transfers, out-migration to other areas, marriage, birth of children, and other reasons. Projecting labor supply techniques are not as sophisticated as those for projecting labor demand. Throughout the country workers are free to change locations or occupations at will. This is desirable for the individual worker, but complicates the process of measuring labor supply. Past experience becomes orie tool available to approximate the millions of individuals making individual choice regarding place and type of work. There are separation rates for occupations on a national basis which ca11 form a good starting point to estimate replacement needs. As there are various ways to forecast labor demand, there are various ways to fore- cast labor supply. Selection of method, however, depends upon availability of technical staff, the desired volume and precision of the estimates, and the time and resources available I to accomplish the objective. The approach selected for Georgia was simple, inexpensive, and fast. For these advantages, some prec1s1on was sacrificed. The technique selected involves a comparison of annual estimated new entrants to an occupation over a recent period of time with a projection of the number that will be required I annually in a future period for expansion and replacement in specific occupations. As such, these measures indicate whether the current rate of new worker input to an occupation must be expanded, contracted, or maintained at the current level in order to meet future needs. The measures do not take into account the total supply of workers. To achieve the occupational growth experienced in Georgia from 1960 to 1967 an average of 90,450 workers were supplied annually for both expansion and replacement needs. The projected requirements for the 1967-1975 period for expansion and replacement are 104,370 workers. This is an increase in annual average new entrant requirement of 15.4 percent. - 42 - All of the broad occupational groups and subgroups are presented in Table 12. For analytical purposes, the ratio of the projected required new job entrants for the period 1967- a .,~ :.1 1975 to the experienced need during the 1960-1967 period is presented in the same table. For some occupations - based on the projections - not as many new workers will be needed in the period 1967-1975 as were required in the 1960-1967 period. These are identified by ratios less than unity (1.0). For some occupations, however, the projected need in the 1967-1975 period will be greater than that in the period 1960-1967. These are ratios greater than unity. Finally, for some occupations the projected need 1967 to 1975 will approximate that of the 1960-1967 period and are ratios of unity or near unity. Therefore, these ratios serve to point out possible imbalances in certain occupations. It should be kept in mind that changes in occupation makeup are not as smooth and unvaried as they are being treated here for the purpose of a broad overview within a span of time. In some years one occupation will require a large number of new workers and the next year may only need one half of that number. On the w.hole, however, these cycles should average out to approximate annual average new entrant requirements discussed in this section. More detailed information on workers entering occupations during the 1960-1967 period and the projected number that will be required during the period 1967-1975 is presented in Appendix Table 5. PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL AND KINDRED Indications are that the projected required need for professional, technical and kind- red workers will be about one-third greater from 1967-1975 period than was experienced during the 1960-1967 period. The total need for expansion and replacement needs during the 1967-1975 period is expected to be 16,610 new entrants per year while in the 1960-1967 period it was 11,950 new entrants per year. The requirement for technicians, except medi- cal and dental, which includes such occupations as draftsmen, radio operators, and surveyors is expected to show the sharpest increase, requiring 570 more new entrants in annually in the 1967-1975 period than were required in the 1960-1967 period . Technical engineers will need only 220 more new entrants annually during the 1967-1975 period than ,. were required from 1960 to 1967. The need for teachers, while increasing, is not increasing ,; as rapidly as other occupations in the professional field. This change is the partial result of sharply reduced birth rates. New teachers are expected to be needed in the 1967-1975 period at an annual amount of 4,710 new entrants. MANAGERS, OFFICIALS AND PROPRIETORS There will be a substantially greater need for managers, officials and proprietors during the 1967-1975 period than was experienced during the 1960-1967 period. Annually 2,2 30 more new entrants will be required during the 1967-19 75 period than were needed yea rly from 1960 to 1967 . Expansion in man y area s will account for this demand, but the primary need will be in esta blishments undergoing technological changes and fast service food place s. - 43 - CLERICAL AND KINDRED WORKERS The experienced need for clerical and kindred workers from 1960 to 1967 amounted to 19,920 new entrants per year while the projected required need for the period 1967-1975 is estimated at 21,250 new entrants per year. The ratio is 1.07 which is very close to unity and it may be assumed that current volumes of training and re-entrants patterns will continue to satisfy the demand which is increasing only slightly. However, half again as many office machine operators will be needed during the projected period than were required from 1960 to 1967. Postal and shipping and receiving clerks show a marked decline during the projected period 1967-1975 as opposed to the experienced period 1960-1967. SALES WORKERS During the 1967-1975 period an estimated 6,930 new entrants will be required annually as opposed to requirements of 5',370 annually experienced during the 1960-1967 period. This is an increase of 1,560 new entrants each year in sales occupations. The increase is probably substantial enough to warrant some additional training, though perhaps it can be instituted at currently existing facilities. CRAFTSMEN, FOREMEN AND KINDRED WORKERS Craftsmen, foremen and kindred workers represent one of the largest broad occupatio- nal groups in Georgia. The projected annual average need for new entrants from 1967 to 1975 is 9,870. This is a decrease of 1,030 workers each year from the 10,900 new entrants that were required from 1960 to 1967. Most of the broad subgroups within this category (refer to Appendix Table 5) have a ratio of change very close to unity and only minor adjustments should be required in existing training programs. Metalworking craftsmen except mechanics, however, will require less than half the new entrants annually from 1967 to 1975 than were experienced from 1960 to 1967. OPERATIVES AND KINDRED WORKERS Operatives and kindred workers required 19,470 new entrants annually from 1960 to 1967 and are expected to need 20,930 each year from 1967 to 1975. The ratios for all of these occupations are within .10 of unity and very little adjustments in existing training ., ',, patterns are expected to be required. SERVICE WORKERS Service workers required new entrants annually of 15,560 from 1960 to 1967. This will increase by 3,430 to 18,990 new entrants each year from 1967 to 1975. Although the ratio only shows moderate growth - the additional 3,430 new entrants will require training and training facilities, because a serious imbalance will probably result. - 44 - LABORERS, EXCLUDING FARM AND MINE; AND FARMERS AND FARM WORKERS The last two broad occupational groups, including laborers and farmers and farm workers , have been combined for neither group will present a problem with regard to training. Only three quarters of the number of laborers will be required annually from 1967 to 1975 as were required from 1960 to 1967. Farming occupations will continue to decline- losing 3,060 workers annually from 1960 to 1967 but only 1,980 workers from 1967 to 1975. ~I - 45 - ~-:,~~ ,; ~----- .. ' . -'~-j~ -----':~'-~ .r~,,;._ ~~.~;;_. ~ TABLE 12. ESTIMATED AVERAGE ANNl)AL NEW JOB ENTRANTS EXPERIENCED FROM 1960-1967 AND PROJECTED REQUIRED FROM 1967-1975 BY BROAD OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES AND SELECTED SUBGROUPS IN GEORGIA Occupation Experienced Need Professional, Technical and Kindred Engineers, technical Medical and other health workers Teachers Technical, except medical and dental Other professional, technical and kindred 1/ Managers, Officials and Proprietors 11,950 1,120 1,880 3,820 930 3,780 7,610 Clerical and Kindred Workers .j>.. 0\ Sales Workers 19,920 5,370 Craftsmen, Foremen and Kindred Construction craftsmen Foremen, n. e. c. Metalworking craftsmen, excluding mechanics Mechanics and repairmen Other craftsmen and kindred 1/ 10,900 2,990 1,790 1,020 3,450 1,020 Operatives and Kindred Workers 19,470 Service Workers 15,560 Laborers, Excluding Form and Mine 2,730 Farmers and Farm Workers -3.060 1/ Ones not inc! ude natural and social scientists. :l/ Does not inc! ude printing trades, transpottation and public utility craftsmen. SOURCE: Appendix Table 5. Annual Average New Jab Entrants Projected Ratio of Projected Required Required to Experienced N~ed 16,610 1.39 1,340 1.20 2,760 1.47 4,710 1.23 1,500 1.61 5,620 1.49 9,840 1.29 21,250 1.07 6,930 1.29 9,870 .91 2,450 .82 1,690 .94 450 .44 3,410 .99 1,210 1.19 20,930 1.07 18,990 1.22 1,930 .71 -1 980 .65 METHODOLOGY The methodology used in this report is substantially that outlined in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' publication Tomorrow's Manpower Needs and described in the draft version of the Manpower Administration's Handbook for Projecting Employment by Occupation for States and Major Areas. The projections were developed in two major phases: initially projections were made for specific industries in Georgia for 1975 , then these industry projections were applied to the national industry-occupational matrixes to obtain projections of occupational distribution for 1975. To develop industry projections time series data from 1958-1969 were developed for each of the industries. These data were submitted to a computerized regression analysis. Three basic relationships were figured: (1) between state employment in each industry and time, (2) the logarithm of state employment in each industry and time, and (3) ratio of state to national employment in each industry and time. These various projections were checked for validity and reasonableness and adjusted by a local analyst with solid economic knowledge of the area. Final industry projections were made by careful analysis. To obtain occupational projections, these industry projections along with industry employment in 1960 and 1960 occupational data from the Census were submitted to a computerized system to be applied to the national matrix. Occupational projections were received and adjusted, balanced and analyzed. After occupational projections had been finalized, replacement needs (based on national separation rates by sex) were determined to yield replacement demand. An aggragate figure showing total demand by occupation was calculated. Because 1960 Census estimates and industry totals for 1960 were quite close, adjustments for commuting and migration were not made before submitting tabulations for the second computer phase. It was felt that to do so would distort rather than clarify the picture. .,.I I - 47 - '.l, )l ~ APPENDIX ' Appendix Chart 1 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN GEORGIA BY SELECTED MAJOR INDUSTRIES 1940-1970 and PROJECTED 1975 500 (THOUSANDS) 400 AGRICULTURE 300 200 , , ,,,/ GOVERNMENT 100 ---- 0 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 NOTE: Nonagricultural Industries exclude self-employed and unpaid family workers and domestic workers in private households. ~ .:.:~.:::. ::.. ~~' ~ .': :.: ~ \ ' .... _.;.:t:: .~;J.~. APPE:-.!DIX TABLE 1. GEORG IA CIVILIA~ WO RK FOR CES ESTIMATES, WITH E ~IPLOYMENT OF :\O>:AGR ICULTURAL WAGE Ai\DSA L ARYWORKE RS (EXCEPT DOMESTICS) BY MAJ OR INDUSTRY, ALL OTHER NONAGR ICU L TU R AL EMPLOB1E~ T AND AGR ICUL TliRAL B l PLODIENT, 1960-1970 (Es rimares in Thousands) Item Civ ili an Work Forc e Unem ployme nt , Numbe r P e rc ent of civili an w ork fo rce Em p lo y m!'nt, T ot o! Non a gric ultural wage & salary , exce pt do mes t ics 11 Manufa c turin,L: l)urable ,L:Oods L umber & wood products Furniture & fixtures ~ Stnneee & pla se ardware & farm equipment Vl .1:>. Limited price stores Other generd merchandise Food & dairy stores Auto & accessory dealers Gas stations Apparel & accessories Furniture, furnishings & appliances I Eating & drinking places Drug swres Other retail swres Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Banks & credit agencies Srock brokers & investment companie~ Insurance Real estate Services Hotels & other locging place~ Laundries, cleaners & valet shops All <'ther personal services 1960 Employment Annua I Average 1967 1975 269.8 69.9 5.9 4.5 3.0 10.4 10.6 10.7 24.8 199.9 ll.5 8.4 29.5 35.5 21.2 16.0 12.4 10.7 29.0 7.5 18.2 341.0 93.6 7.8 6.3 2.3 11.7 13.1 18.8 33.6 247.4 12.4 8.4 42.9 41.9 24.4 19.1 14.7 11.4 41.2 9.6 21.4 426.1 120.0 10.7 7.3 3.9 12.5 18.0 26.2 41.4 306.1 14.3 6.8 62.3 50.7 30.1 23.4 16.8 12.7 53.2 13.0 22.8 55.0 73.4 97.9 18.6 28.1 39.7 1.3 2.1 4.0 25.5 30.9 36.8 9.6 12.3 17.4 329.3 10.8 15.8 12.4 430.2 15.5 19.9 14.9 565.7 21.8 20.1 17.5 Annual Growth Rates 1960~1967 1967-1975 Per No. of Per No. of Cent Jobs Cent Jobs 3.4 10.2 2.8 10.6 4.3 3.5 3.2 3.3 4.1 0.3 4.0 0.4 4.9 0.2 1.9 0.1 -3.7 -0.1 6.8 0.2 1.7 0.2 0.8 0.1 3.1 0.4 4.1 0.6 8.4 1.2 4.2 0.9 4.4 1.3 2.6 1.0 3.1 6.7 2.7 7.3 1.1 0.1 1.8 0.2 0 0 -2.6 -0.2 5.5 1.9 4.8 2.4 2.4 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.0 0.5 2.7 0.7 2.6 0.4 2.6 0.5 2.5 0.3 1.7 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.4 0.2 5.1 1.7 3.2 1.5 3.6 0.3 3.9 0.4 2.3 0.5 0.8 0.2 4.2 2.6 3.7 3.1 6.1 1.3 4.4 1.5 7.1 0.1 8.4 0.2 2.8 0.8 2.2 0.8 3.6 0.4 4.4 0.6 3.9 14.4 5.3 0.7 3.3 0.6 2.7 0.4 3.5 16.9 4.4 0.8 0.1 2.0 0.3 ,;.~ .: r. _.:)';.~:.:!'L\ ' '1,.(')'':.: ~...:.-..~u,_ APPENDIX TABLE 2. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN GEORGIA, BY MAJOR INDUSTRY GROUP, 1960, 1967 AND PROJECTED 1975, WITH ANNUAL GR,OfiTH RATES, 1960-1967 and 1967-1975 - continted (Employment in Thousands) . Industry_jl 1960 Em~loyment Annual Average 1967 1975 Annual Growth Rates 1960-1967 1967-1975 Per No. of Per No. of Cent Jobs Cent Jobs Advertising Other miscellaneous business service Auto repair services Other repair services Motion pictures & theatres Miscellaneous entertainment & recreation Hospitals Other mecical & health services Legal services Educational services Welfare & religious organizations Vl Vl Nonprofit membership organizations Private households Engineering & architectural services Accounting & bookkeeping services All other professional s'ervices 1.1 12.0 9.8 5.2 3.2 5.9 36.4 14.7 3.1 70.2 24.1 1.7 94.9 5.4 2.4 0.2 1.5 19.6 12.0 6.0 4.2 9.6 46.6 21.0 4.0 106.8 27.0 2.7 107.8 7.5 3.3 0.3 1.9 34.9 14.6 7.8 4.9 12.2 58.9 32.0 5.3 160.0 32.7 3.8 122.6 7.4 6.8 0.5 4.5 0.1 3.\l 0.1 7.3 1.1 7.5 1.9 2.9 0.3 2.5 0.3 2.1 0.1 3-3 0.2 4.0 0.1 1.9 0.1 7.2 0.5 3.0 0.3 3.6 1.5 3.0 1.5 5.2 0.9 5.4 1.4 3.7 0.1 3.6 0.2 6.2 5.2 5.2 6.7 1.6 0.4 2.4 0.7 6.8 0.1 4.4 0.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 4.8 0.3 -0.2 4.7 0.1 9.5 0.4 6.0 6.6 Public Administration ~ Postal service Other federal public administration State pulolic administration Local public administration 65.2 11.2 36.2 4.4 13.4 92.3 13.7 50.6 8.0 20.0 109.6 15.6 60.1 9.9 24.0 5.1 3.9 2.2 2.2 2.9 0.4 1.6 0.2 4.9 2.1 2.2 1.2 8.9 0.5 2.7 0.3 5.9 0.9 2.3 0.5 Less than O.I .1/ Industry classification is same as that in Table :Z of supplement No. 2 to Tomorrow's Manpower Needs publication of the U. S. Depanment of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is not fdly comparable to that in Appendix Table 1. .JJ Includes farm production and agricultural services, forestry and fisheries . .1/ Includes ordnance, except sighting and fire control equipment (SIC 19, except I94). .Y Includes sighting and fire control equipment (SIC I94). _jJ Includes public administration emplo)ment only. Government agencies engaged in educational and medical services and in activities commonly carried on also by private er.terprises, su .t~llMAl.tU AV.tKAu.l;. ANNUAL N.tW JUtl .t.NTKANT~ EXPERIENCED FROM 1960-1967 AND PROJECTED REQUIRED FROM 1967-1975 BY OCCUPATION IN GEORGIA- continued j i ~ Occupation j Hear crearers, annealers, remperers Millwrighrs Molders , meral (e x cepe core makers) Panern makers , meral and wood Roflers and roll hands Sheermeral workers Toolmakers , diemakers , seners Mechanic s and repairmen -I Air condirioning, refrigerarion & hearing mechanics Airplane mechanics and repairmen Moror vehicle mechanics Office machine mechanics Radio and T. V. mechanics Railroad and car shop mechanics :1 r..1 Ocher mechanics and repairmen 1~.' ~,~ Priming crades crafrsmen Composirors and rypeseuers Eleccrorypers and srereorypers Engravers excepr phoroengravers Phoroengravers, lirhographers Pressmen and place primers Transporrarion, and public uriliry crafrsmen Linemen and servicemen Locomorive engineers Locomorive firemen 1 I Ocher crafrsmen and kindred workers Bakers Cabinermakers Cranemen, derrickmen, hoisrmen Glaziers Jewe lers and warchmakers Loomfixers Opricians, lens grinders, polishers lnspecror s , log and lumber lnspe crors, ocher 1 ;~l Uphol srerers ;~! Crafrsmen, kindred, n.e.c . :j Operarives and Kindred Workers