Turning Around Lowest-Achieving Schools in Georgia A Five-Year Quantitative Dashboard June 2015 Xiaoying Wu Katie Manthey Race to the Top Statewide Evaluation This page intentionally left blank. Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Executive Summary1 Georgia's Race to the Top (RT3) application charges the Governor's Office of Student Achievement (GOSA) with the task of evaluating the fidelity of implementation and the effectiveness of turnaround efforts in Georgia's lowest achieving schools. In fall 2010, the Georgia Department of Education (GaDOE) identified 40 schools as "persistently lowest-achieving" within RT3 districts. Each school adopted a reform model and aggressive reform plans that would lead to dramatic improvement in three years. Georgia's RT3 statewide evaluation focuses on three goals: how well RT3 projects prepared students for college and career success, how well the lowest achieving schools were "turned around", and how well RT3 projects created great teachers and leaders. This report is the second GOSA report to address the lowest achieving schools reform area. In 2012, GOSA published its first report in the reform area: A Qualitative Report on Early Stage Implementation in Georgia. The goal of this report is to provide the GaDOE, the Governor's Office, educators, parents, and other stakeholders an evaluation of the progress occurring in Georgia's LAS through a quantitative analysis of longitudinal school data. It serves as a dashboard for leading and lagging indicators of turnaround efforts. GOSA seeks to identify whether schools made changes in leading indicators at the start of implementation and whether the schools saw improvement in the lagging indicators as their grant work comes to an end. Since this report only includes descriptive statistics, the outcomes presented should not be interpreted as causal results of interventions. GOSA's quasi-experimental study of ten lowest-achieving middle schools, scheduled to be published in summer 2015, will provide more causal evidence of impact. This report finds that, while some schools have made strides to improve student achievement, most have fallen short of the grant's expectations for dramatic increases. The majority of schools had either a small change or no statistically significant change in chronic absenteeism, out-of-school suspension rates, and dropout rates. Although many schools had statistically significant increases in standardized test scores, particularly in high schools, the gains only outpaced gains in the state's average by a few percentage points. In addition, despite increased graduation rates in many schools, the gap with the state average remained relatively unchanged. 1 The contents of this report were developed under a grant from the U.S. Department of Education. However, those contents do not necessarily represent the policy of the U.S. Department of Education, and you should not assume endorsement by the Federal Government. i|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table of Contents Executive Summary........................................................................................................................................ i I. Introduction and Background ............................................................................................................... 1 II. Methodology and Data ......................................................................................................................... 4 III. Leading Indicators ............................................................................................................................. 6 A. Staff Retention .................................................................................................................................. 6 B. Average Years of Experience........................................................................................................... 14 C. Student Attendance ........................................................................................................................ 18 D. Student Suspension Rate ................................................................................................................ 22 E. Student In-Grade Retention............................................................................................................ 26 F. Student Dropout Rate ..................................................................................................................... 30 IV. Lagging Indicators ........................................................................................................................... 34 A. Standardized Test Scores ................................................................................................................ 34 i. End of Course Tests (EOCT)............................................................................................................. 34 ii. Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests (CRCT) ............................................................................ 42 B. Graduation Rate.............................................................................................................................. 49 C. College Enrollment.............................................................................................................................. 53 VI. Conclusion....................................................................................................................................... 57 VII. Appendix A. School Improvement Grant Eligibility Criteria ............................................................ 58 VIII. Appendix B. Lowest-Achieving School Non-negotiable List............................................................ 59 IX. Appendix C. Confidence Interval for Proportions Formula............................................................. 60 Table of Abbreviations ARRA GOSA NI-5 RT3 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Governor's Office of Student Achievement Needs Improvement-5 Race to the Top GaDOE LAS US ED SIG Georgia Department of Education Lowest Achieving Schools U.S. Department of Education School Improvement Grant Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 I. Introduction and Background As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009, the U.S. Department of Education (US ED) allocated over $3 billion to school reform through Title I School Improvement Grants (SIG) to states to focus on turning around the lowest 5% of their schools.2 Georgia received more than $122 million in ARRA funds to support this work.3 As a complement to the SIG, Georgia's 2010 Race to the Top (RT3) application identified 40 "persistently lowest-achieving" schools located within the 26 RT3 partner districts. Twenty-six of these schools, referred to in this report as LAS, were designated as "persistently lowest-achieving" because they were already receiving a SIG grant. The remaining 14 schools were identified by the Georgia Department of Education (GaDOE) as any middle school or high school designated as Needs Improvement-5 (NI-5) or higher in 2010 under the state's former accountability system of Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP). A school was designated as NI-5 or higher if it had missed AYP for five or more years without making AYP for two consecutive years.4 Twenty of the 26 SIG schools made up the SIG Cohort 1 and began implementing the three-year grant during the 2010-2011 school year.5 For the purposes of this report, these schools are grouped together as 2010-2011 LAS. One school closed prior to implementation (Avondale High School). The remaining 19 schools began implementation during the 2011-2012 school year. For the purposes of this report, these schools are grouped together as 2011-2012 LAS. Selection Criteria for Lowest-Achieving Schools School must be located in a Race to the Top partner district and meet one of the following criteria. Any school receiving a federal school improvement grant (SIG).i Any middle or high school designated as NI-5 or higher.ii OR 26 schools (all high schools) 14 schools (4 high and 10 middle schools) iAppendix A includes the criteria for how schools become eligible to receive SIG grants. iiSchool has missed AYP for five or more years without making AYP for two consecutive years. Adapted from: Georgia Department of Education, Georgia's Race to the Top Application, June 1, 2010, p. 38. 2 "Georgia's Race to the Top (RT3) Plan." Georgia's Race to the Top (RT3) Plan. Georgia Department of Education, n.d. Web. 07 Oct. 2014. . 3 Abrevaya, Sandra. "Georgia to Receive More Than $122 Million to Turn Around Its Persistently Lowest Achieving Schools." U.S. Department of Education. U.S. Department of Education, 06 Apr. 2010. Web. 21 Sep. 2014. . 4 Georgia Department of Education. Georgia's Race to the Top Application, Sep. 21, 2010, p.38. 5 Shearer, Niah, and Sam Rauschenberg. Turning Around Lowest-Achieving Schools: A Qualitative Report on the Early Stage Implementation in Georgia. Rep. Atlanta: Governor's Office of Student Achievement, 2012. 1|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 As a whole, Georgia's RT3 districts' statements of work and SIG applications identified increasing student achievement through higher graduation rates and test scores as main goals for the grants. To address these challenges, US ED and GaDOE provided a list of non-negotiable requirements and recommendations to help guide schools in their work.6 In addition, schools selected reform models. RT3/SIG required schools to select one of the four models7: Transformation. This model requires the district to replace the principal, implement a rigorous staff evaluation and development system, institute a comprehensive instructional reform, increase learning time and apply community-oriented school strategies, and provide greater operational flexibility and support for the school. Turnaround. This model requires the district to replace the principal and rehire no more that 50% of the staff, give greater principal autonomy, and implement other prescribed and recommended strategies. Restart. This model requires the district to convert or close and reopen a school under a charter school operator, charter management organization, or education management organization. School closure. This model requires the district to close the school and enroll the students in other schools in the district that are higher achieving. All but four schools selected the Transformation model. Beach High School, Groves High School, and Laney High School selected to implement the Turnaround model, and Avondale High School closed. Table 1 lists Georgia's LAS, their districts, funding category, and implementation group. 6 See appendix A for non-negotiable list. 7 "The Purpose of the School Improvement Grants." Handbook on effective implementation of school improvement grants. Ed. Perlman, Carole L., and Sam Redding. Lincoln: Center on Innovation & Improvement (2011). Page 3. 2|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 1: List of 40 Race to the Top Lowest-Achieving Schools School District Category Crim High School Atlanta Public Schools SIG Cohort I Douglass High School Atlanta Public Schools SIG Cohort I Therrell School of Health and Science Atlanta Public Schools RT3 Harper-Archer Middle School Atlanta Public Schools RT3 Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy Atlanta Public Schools SIG Cohort II Fitzgerald High School Ben Hill County RT3 Rutland High School Bibb County SIG Cohort I Northeast High School Bibb County SIG Cohort I Southwest High School Bibb County SIG Cohort I Central High School Bibb County SIG Cohort II William S. Hutchings Career Center Bibb County SIG Cohort I Burke County High School Burke County SIG Cohort I Beach High School Chatham County SIG Cohort I Groves High School Chatham County SIG Cohort II Lovejoy Middle School Clayton County RT3 Dade County High School Dade County SIG Cohort I Freedom Middle School DeKalb County RT3 McNair High School DeKalb County SIG Cohort I Avondale High School DeKalb County RT3 Towers High School DeKalb County SIG Cohort II McNair Middle School DeKalb County RT3 Clarkston High School DeKalb County SIG Cohort I Albany High School Dougherty County SIG Cohort II Henry County High School Henry County SIG Cohort I Greenville High School Meriwether County SIG Cohort II Greenville Middle School Meriwether County RT3 Baker Middle School Muscogee County RT3 Spencer High School Muscogee County SIG Cohort I Eddy Middle School Muscogee County RT3 Jordan Vocational High School Muscogee County SIG Cohort I Peach County High School Peach County SIG Cohort I Hawkinsville High School Pulaski County SIG Cohort I Butler High School Richmond County RT3 Josey High School Richmond County SIG Cohort I Laney High School Richmond County SIG Cohort I Glenn Hills High School Richmond County SIG Cohort I Murphey Middle Charter School Richmond County RT3 Griffin High School Spalding County SIG Cohort I Cowan Road Middle School Spalding County RT3 Newbern Middle School Valdosta City RT3 Group 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS Closed 2011-2012 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 2011-2012 LAS 3|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 II. Methodology and Data This report is a longitudinal, quantitative analysis of school-level data trends. The Governor's Office of Student Achievement collected and analyzed data on the 39 schools identified as "persistently lowest achieving" through RT3.8 Data spanned from the 2009-2010 school year through the 2013-2014 school year. The analysis provides descriptive statistics that examine changes in data from year to year and measures the statistical significance of those changes.9 To evaluate the progress of LAS, the report considers two types of data: "leading" and "lagging" indicators. Leading indicators are metrics that help gauge whether a school is on track midstream, allowing for adjustments to be made.10 Examples of leading indicators include student attendance and student discipline rates. These metrics help determine the atmosphere for learning in the school. Changes in these kinds of metrics should be noticeable in the first year of reform efforts. Lagging indicators are student achievement metrics that often take two or more years before measureable growth occurs. Examples of lagging indicators include standardized test scores and graduation rate. The theory of change for school turnarounds posits that if a school improves its leading indicators in the first two years of grant work, then it will see improvements in lagging indicators by the third year.11 Based upon research on school turnaround indicators, GOSA selected nine indicators to evaluate in this report, six leading and three lagging.12 Where possible, data from publicly available sources, such as GOSA's Report Card, were used. In some cases, GOSA used aggregated Georgia Department of Education data available through Georgia's Academic and Workforce Analysis and Research Data System (GAAWARDS), the statewide longitudinal data system. Leading Indicators A. Staff (teacher and administration) retention. The percentage of teachers/administrators who were employed by the school in year one, two, three, and four of implementation who were also employed by the school the year before implementation (Source: GAAWARDS). B. Teacher experience. The average years of experience for teachers in each school. The data are aggregated to the school level. Individual teacher data are not used (Source: GOSA Report Card). 8 Since Avondale High School was closed, it was not included in the analysis. 9 Formula can be found in Appendix C. 10 Pallin, Emily. "Evaluating School Turnaround: Establishing benchmarks and metrics to assess school turnaround. School Turnaround." Mass Insight Education. Rep. Boston: Mass Insight Education, (2010): Page 7. 11 Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround, (2010). Page 11-15. 12 Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround, (2010). Page 1-35. Kowal, Julie, and Joe Ableidinger. "How to Know when Dramatic Change Is on Track: Leading Indicators of School Turnarounds." Public Impact, (2011).Page 1-20. Center on Innovation & Improvement, Mid-Atlantic Comprehensive Center, and Appalachia Regional Comprehensive Center. School Improvement Grants Online Tool: Monitoring and Evaluating Transformations by FEDERAL REQUIREMENTS. Lincoln, Illinois: Academic Development Institute, 2011. PDF. Page 1-7. 4|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 C. Student attendance. The percentage of students who missed fewer than six days of school (Source: GOSA Report Card). D. Student discipline. The number of students receiving out-of-school suspension divided by the total number of students enrolled in the fall of the school year (Source: GAAWARDS). E. Student retention. The total number of students retained in-grade divided by the total number of students enrolled in the fall of the school year. The state average is calculated as the total number of students retained divided by the by-grade sum of fall enrollment for a given year (Source: GOSA Report Card). F. Dropout rate. The total number of students who dropped out of school for grades 9-12 divided by the total number of students enrolled in the fall of the school year. The state average percentage of students who dropped out of school for grades 9-12 includes all high schools in this report (Source: GOSA Report Card). Lagging Indicators A. Standardized test scores. The percentage of students who met or exceeded state standards for both the End of Course Test (EOCT) and the Criterion-Referenced Competency Test (CRCT). EOCTs were administered to high school students, and CRCTs were administered to students in grades 3 through 8. GOSA calculated the state average for CRCT scores to include only grades 6 through 8 because no LAS served students under grade 6 (Source: GOSA Report Card). B. Graduation rate. The four-year cohort graduate rate. This indicator is only available for 20102011 forward because the state's graduation rate calculation method changed in 2010-2011. The four-year high school graduation rate defines the cohort when the student first becomes a freshman, and the rate is calculated using the number of students who graduate within four years13 (Source: GOSA Report Card, as calculated by the Georgia Department of Education). C. College enrollment. The number of students who enrolled in a college within 16 months of graduating from high school divided by the total number of high school graduates for the given year (Source: GOSA Report Card, c(11) Report). Data are presented throughout the report in charts and tables. For ease of discussion, the percentages throughout the report are rounded to the nearest tenth. The report is organized to take the reader through the expectations of each indicator and then the actual data trends. The next section presents the results and findings for the leading indicator. 13 "Indicators." The Governor's Office of Student Achievement. The Governor's Office of Student Achievement, n.d. Web. 07 Oct. 2014. . 5|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 III. Leading Indicators A. Staff Retention Research suggests that chronically failing schools often continue down the same path because correct leadership is not in place. Competencies of successful turnaround school leaders differ from those of other school leaders.14 Therefore, schools undergoing turnaround reform should replace the current principal with a leader who possesses turnaround leadership skills. Having effective teachers in place is also essential for continuing reform efforts. Research from Public Impact shows that successful turnaround leaders typically do not replace all or even most of teachers at the start of implementation, but they do replace key leaders who help drive change.15 Remaining teachers either support the changes or leave on their own. As explained in the introduction, each school undergoing turnaround selected a reform model. Thirty-six of Georgia's LAS chose the Transformation model, and three schools, Beach High School, Groves High School, and Laney High School, chose the Turnaround model. The Transformation model requires that the principal be replaced and that staff undergo rigorous evaluations. The Turnaround model requires the principal be replaced and that no more than 50% of staff is rehired.16 Therefore, Transformation model schools should retain less than 100% of administrators and likely less than 100% of teachers in year one. Turnaround model schools should retain less than 100% of administrators and 50% or less of teachers in year one. Staff retention in years two and three will vary by school. In general, Georgia lowest achieving schools have retained staff to the levels required by the reform model. On average, 63% of administrators in 2010-2011 LAS and 72% of administrators in 2011-2012 LAS were retained in the first year of implementation. This percentage decreased each year of implementation to around 21% and 23%, respectively, in the 2013-2014 school year. On average, around 73% of teachers in Georgia's LAS were retained in the first year of implementation. This percentage decreased each year of implementation to around 40% in the 2013-2014 school year for 2010-2011 LAS and 44% for 2011-2012 LAS. 14 Kowal, Julie, and Joe Ableidinger. "How to Know when Dramatic Change Is on Track: Leading Indicators of School Turnarounds." Public Impact (2011). Page 9. 15 Ibid. 16 The Georgia Department of Education's Office of School Turnaround (now Office of School Improvement) received a waiver from the U.S. Department of Education that allowed districts to retain the school leader is he/she was hired within the previous two years to implement improvement initiatives. 6|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Ten schools did not replace an administrator in year one of implementation. The remaining 29 schools either replaced at least one administrator or reduced the number of administrators. All 36 Transformation model schools had less than 100% teacher retention in year one. For the Turnaround schools, both Beach and Laney retained less than 50% of teachers in year one. However, Groves High School retained 53% of teachers in year one. Figure 1 shows 2010-2011 LAS averages for administrators and teachers across all four years after implementation. Figure 2 shows 2011-2012 averages for administrators and teachers across all three years of implementation. Table 2 lists the number of administrators employed in the 2009-2010 school year for each 2010-2011 LAS and then the percentage of those who were retained each following year. Table 3 lists the number of administrators employed in the 2010-2011 school year for each 2011-2012 LAS and then the percentage of those who were retained each year that follows. Table 4 lists the number of teachers employed in the 2009-2010 school year for each 2010-2011 LAS and then the percentage of those who were retained each year that follows. Table 5 lists the number of teachers employed in the 2010-2011 school year for 2011-2012 LAS and then the percentage of those who were retained each following year. 7|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 1: 2010-2011 LAS Percent (%) of Staff Retained Who Were Employed by the School the Year Before Implementation 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 73.7% 62.5% 59.3% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 41.4% 48.6% 27.7% 40.4% 21.1% 2010-2011 LAS Admin 2010-2011 LAS Teachers 10.0% 0.0% 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 8|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 2: 2011-2012 LAS Percent (%) of Staff Retained Who Were Employed by the School the Year Before Implementation 80.0% 70.0% 72.8% 71.7% 60.0% 55.8% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 36.2% 44.3% 23.3% 2011-2012 LAS Admin 2011-2012 LAS Teachers 10.0% 0.0% 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2011-2012 LAS: Harper-Archer MS, Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Lovejoy MS, Freedom MS, McNair MS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, Greenville MS, Baker MS, Eddy MS, Butler HS, Murphey MS, Cowan Rd MS, and Newbern MS 9|Page Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 2: 2010-2011 LAS Percent of Administrators Retained Who Were Employed by the School the Year Before Implementation District School # Admin 2009-2010 20102011 (Yr 1) Atlanta Public Schools Crim High School 5 40.0% Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 6 50.0% Bibb County Northeast High School 5 20.0% Bibb County Rutland High School 6 33.3% Bibb County Bibb County Burke County Southwest High School 7 28.6% William S. Hutchings Career Center 3 66.7% Burke County High School 4 75.0% Chatham County Beach High School 3 0.0% Dade County Dade County High School 2 50.0% DeKalb County Clarkston High School 5 80.0% DeKalb County McNair High School 7 85.7% Henry County Henry County High School 5 60.0% Muscogee County Jordan Vocational High School 5 100.0% Muscogee County Spencer High School 5 100.0% Peach County Peach County High School 7 71.4% Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 3 66.7% Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 4 75.0% Richmond County Josey High School 4 100.0% Richmond County Laney High School 3 66.7% Spalding County Griffin High School 5 80.0% The year before implementation for 2010-2011 LAS was 2009-2010. 20112012 (Yr 2) 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 28.6% 33.3% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 80.0% 57.1% 20.0% 60.0% 60.0% 57.1% 66.7% 50.0% 75.0% 33.3% 40.0% 20122013 (Yr 3) 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7% 28.6% 20132014 (Yr 4) 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 16.7% 14.3% 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 28.6% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 14.3% 66.7% 0.0% 50.0% 33.3% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 14.3% 20.0% 40.0% 80.0% 14.3% 66.7% 0.0% 25.0% 33.3% 20.0% Trend 10 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 3: 2011-2012 LAS Percent of Administrators Retained Who Were Employed by the School the Year Before Implementation District School # Admin 2010-2011 20112012 (Yr 1) 20122013 (Yr 2) 20132014 (Yr 3) Trend Atlanta Public Schools Harper-Archer Middle School 4 75.0% 25.0% 0.0% Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Health and Science 1 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy 2 Ben Hill County Fitzgerald High School 4 Bibb County Central High School 5 Chatham County Groves High School 6 Clayton County Lovejoy Middle School 3 DeKalb County Freedom Middle School 4 DeKalb County McNair Middle School 4 DeKalb County Towers High School 5 Dougherty County Albany High School 3 Meriwether County Greenville High School 3 Meriwether County Greenville Middle School 2 Muscogee County Baker Middle School 4 Muscogee County Eddy Middle School 3 Richmond County Butler High School 5 Richmond County Murphey Middle Charter School 3 Spalding County Cowan Road Middle School 4 Valdosta City Newbern Middle School 7 The year before implementation for 2011-2012 LAS was 2010-2011. 100.0% 100.0% 80.0% 66.7% 0.0% 75.0% 100.0% 60.0% 66.7% 100.0% 50.0% 25.0% 33.3% 60.0% 100.0% 100.0% 71.4% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% 50.0% 25.0% 33.3% 60.0% 66.7% 50.0% 28.6% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 66.7% 25.0% 28.6% 11 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 4: 2010-2011 LAS Percent of Teachers Retained Who Were Employed by the School the Year Before Implementation District School # Teachers 2009-2010 20102011 (Yr 1) 20112012 (Yr 2) 20122013 (Yr 3) 20132014 (Yr 4) Trend Atlanta Public Schools Crim High School 48 85.4% 66.7% 58.3% 45.8% Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 113 64.6% 49.6% 39.8% 26.5% Bibb County Northeast High School 57 59.6% 40.4% 31.6% 26.3% Bibb County Rutland High School 72 77.8% 65.3% 51.4% 44.4% Bibb County Bibb County Burke County Southwest High School William S. Hutchings Career Center Burke County High School 60 80.0% 48.3% 38.3% 36.7% 29 82.8% 62.1% 44.8% 37.9% 90 86.7% 68.9% 62.2% 53.3% Chatham County Beach High School 76 31.6% 30.3% 25.0% 19.7% Dade County Dade County High School 51 70.6% 64.7% 52.9% 47.1% DeKalb County Clarkston High School 70 80.0% 75.7% 65.7% 52.9% DeKalb County McNair High School 72 70.8% 52.8% 37.5% 23.6% Henry County Muscogee County Muscogee County Henry County High School Jordan Vocational High School Spencer High School 75 80.0% 57.3% 48.0% 41.3% 71 87.3% 67.6% 60.6% 50.7% 70 81.4% 72.9% 68.6% 58.6% Peach County Peach County High School 83 73.5% 60.2% 43.4% 39.8% Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 31 77.4% 67.7% 61.3% 54.8% Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 70 82.9% 71.4% 52.9% 41.4% Richmond County Richmond County Josey High School Laney High School 68 66.2% 63.2% 51.5% 41.2% 60 48.3% 38.3% 26.7% 23.3% Spalding County Griffin High School 95 86.3% 63.2% 51.6% 42.1% The year before implementation for 2010-2011 LAS was 2009-2010. 12 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 5: 2011-2012 LAS Percent of Teachers Retained Who Were Employed by the School the Year Before Implementation District School # Teachers 2010-2011 20112012 (Yr 1) 20122013 (Yr 2) 20132014 (Yr 3) Trend Atlanta Public Schools Harper-Archer Middle School 55 76.4% 65.5% 45.5% Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Health and Science 30 70.0% 43.3% 30.0% Atlanta Public Schools Ben Hill County Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy Fitzgerald High School 26 61.5% 62 83.9% Bibb County Central High School 84 78.6% Chatham County Groves High School 102 52.9% Clayton County Lovejoy Middle School 45 84.4% DeKalb County Freedom Middle School 66 83.3% DeKalb County McNair Middle School 61 68.9% DeKalb County Towers High School 68 69.1% Dougherty County Albany High School 56 69.6% Meriwether County Greenville High School 29 65.5% Meriwether County Greenville Middle School 28 85.7% Muscogee County Baker Middle School 30 80.0% Muscogee County Eddy Middle School 37 73.0% Richmond County Butler High School 69 79.7% Richmond County Murphey Middle Charter School 42 57.1% Spalding County Cowan Road Middle School 38 65.8% Valdosta City Newbern Middle School 62 77.4% The year before implementation for 2011-2012 LAS was 2010-2011. 42.3% 62.9% 61.9% 43.1% 71.1% 66.7% 41.0% 51.5% 58.9% 55.2% 53.6% 60.0% 51.4% 72.5% 50.0% 50.0% 59.7% 26.9% 58.1% 50.0% 33.3% 64.4% 53.0% 24.6% 35.3% 53.6% 37.9% 53.6% 46.7% 35.1% 50.7% 47.6% 39.5% 56.5% 13 | P a g e B. Average Years of Experience Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 The average years of experience indicator is intended to show any significant changes in the makeup of teachers in a school. Changes in years of experience are not indicators of changes in teacher effectiveness. On average, teachers with some experience tend to be more effective than new or inexperienced teachers.17 However, teachers gradually reach a plateau after three to five years of teaching.18 One study found that on average, teachers with 20 years of experience are not much more effective than those with 5 years.19 In fact, some studies find that teachers' effectiveness actually declines towards the end of their career.20 In all of Georgia's lowest achieving schools, the average teacher years of experience was between five and twenty years. On average, teachers in Georgia's lowest achieving schools had about 12 years of experience. This is one year less than the state average. Beach High School had the lowest average years of experience, about eight years, across the years of implementation. Therrell School of Law, Government, and Public Policy had the highest average years of experience, about 16 years, across the years of implementation. Almost all schools saw limited change (less than five years of increase or decrease) in teachers' average years of experience from before implementation to the school year 2013-2014, with the only exception being Eddy Middle School, which had a decrease of about eight years in 20132014 as compared to the year before implementation. Figure 3 compares 2010-2011 LAS and 2011-2012 LAS with the state average across all five years. Table 6 lists the average years of experience and statistical significance for each 2010-2011 LAS. Table 7 lists the average years of experience and statistical significance for each 2011-2012 LAS. 17 Kane, Thomas J., Jonah E. Rockoff, and Douglas O. Staiger. "What does certification tell us about teacher effectiveness? Evidence from New York City. "Economics of Education Review 27.6 (2008). Page 615-631. 18 Clotfelter, Charles T., Helen F. Ladd, and Jacob L. Vigdor. "Teacher credentials and student achievement: Longitudinal analysis with student fixed effects."Economics of Education Review 26.6 (2007). Page 673-682. 19 Ladd, Helen F. "Value-added modeling of teacher credentials: Policy implications." second annual CALDER research conference, "The Ins and Outs of Value-Added Measures in Education: What Research Says," Washington, DC, November. Vol. 21. 2008. 20 Ibid. 14 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 3: Average Years of Experience for Teachers 15.0 Years of Experience 14.0 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.0 11.6 11.0 13.4 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.0 11.8 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 10.0 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 2011-2012 LAS: Harper-Archer MS, Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Lovejoy MS, Freedom MS, McNair MS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, Greenville MS, Baker MS, Eddy MS, Butler HS, Murphey MS, Cowan Rd MS, and Newbern MS 15 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 6: 2010-2011 LAS' Teachers Average Years of Experience District Atlanta Public Schools School Crim High School 20092010 (Yr 0) 13.1 20102011 (Yr 1) 13.3 20112012 (Yr 2) 14.7 20122013 (Yr 3) 17.0 20132014 (Yr 4) 16.4 Trend Change Yr4-Yr0 3.3 Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 14.9 13.3 14.8 13.6 13.1 -1.8 Bibb County Northeast High School 10.2 9.7 9.7 8.8 11.5 1.3 Bibb County Rutland High School 12.7 11.8 11.6 12.4 12.6 -0.1 Bibb County Southwest High School 12.6 12.3 11.1 10.8 12.2 -0.4 Bibb County William S. Hutchings Career Center 13.1 11.9 10.3 10.5 9.7 -3.4 Burke County Burke County High School 11.9 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.4 1.5 Chatham County Beach High School 10.8 7.2 7.7 7.7 10.2 -0.6 Dade County Dade County High School 14.6 13.3 13.9 12.8 13.1 -1.5 DeKalb County Clarkston High School 11.1 10.8 9.8 10.8 9.7 -1.4 DeKalb County McNair High School 10.6 11.8 10.6 11.6 9.3 -1.3 Henry County Henry County High School 14.8 14.5 13.9 13.6 12.5 -2.3 Muscogee County Jordan Vocational High School 15.2 14.2 14.9 14.4 13.9 -1.3 Muscogee County Spencer High School 11.0 12.2 13 12.8 12.7 1.7 Peach County Peach County High School 11.0 11.2 10.7 11.1 11.5 0.5 Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 12.8 12.3 15.0 15.3 15.2 2.4 Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 13.5 14.0 13.8 13.3 13.3 -0.2 Richmond County Josey High School 13.8 13.8 14.0 15.0 14.1 0.3 Richmond County Laney High School 12.5 9.7 11.2 11.2 10.9 -1.6 Spalding County Griffin High School 11.7 11.2 11.6 11.3 11.1 -0.6 Yellow cells indicate rates that equal or are above the state average: 12.9 in 2009-2010, 13.2 in 2010-2011, 13.4 in 2011-2012, 13.5 in 2012-2013, and 13.4 in 2013-2014. Green numbers indicate the increase in teachers' average years of experience from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. Red numbers indicate the decrease in teachers' average years of experience from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. 16 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 7: 2011-2012 LAS' Teacher Average Years of Experience District Atlanta Public Schools School Harper-Archer Middle School 20092010 (Yr -1) 9.8 20102011 (Yr 0) 12.3 20112012 (Yr 1) 14.3 20122013 (Yr 2) 14.4 20132014 (Yr 3) 13.4 Trend Change Yr3-Yr0 1.1 Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Health and Science 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.5 11.5 -0.5 Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy 13.5 12.5 15.5 17.4 16.1 3.6 Ben Hill County Fitzgerald High School 13.9 15.0 15.9 14.9 15.3 0.3 Bibb County Central High School 13.5 14.5 13.4 12.7 12.2 -2.3 Chatham County Groves High School 12.5 11.8 10.1 12.9 13.3 1.5 Clayton County Lovejoy Middle School 10.2 11.8 11.1 10.6 12.6 0.8 DeKalb County Freedom Middle School 12.4 12.8 11.8 12.9 12.3 -0.5 DeKalb County McNair Middle School 9.1 11.0 9.9 12.4 9.9 -1.1 DeKalb County Towers High School 10.1 10.7 9.0 9.6 10.2 -0.5 Dougherty County Albany High School 13.2 13.1 14.8 14.7 13.9 0.8 Meriwether County Greenville High School 11.1 10.1 9.5 13.8 11.2 1.1 Meriwether County Greenville Middle School 14.8 13.6 14.9 10.8 12.4 -1.2 Muscogee County Baker Middle School 8.2 11.5 12.0 11.2 10.5 -1.0 Muscogee County Eddy Middle School 15.4 16.6 14.9 11.8 8.8 -7.8 Richmond County Butler High School 12.2 11.8 11.9 13.5 10.7 -1.1 Richmond County Murphey Middle Charter School 10.3 11.7 8.7 9.3 9.5 -2.2 Spalding County Cowan Road Middle School 9.9 10.2 9.8 8.8 8.9 -1.3 Valdosta City Newbern Middle School 9.6 10.9 12.4 11.3 12.1 1.2 Yellow cells indicate rates that equal or are above the state average: 12.9 in 2009-2010, 13.2 in 2010-2011, 13.4 in 2011-2012, 13.5 in 2012-2013, and 13.4 in 2013-2014. Green numbers indicate the increase in teachers' average years of experience from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Red numbers indicate the decrease in teachers' average years of experience from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. 17 | P a g e C. Student Attendance Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Student attendance is also a leading indicator of school turnaround efforts because increasing the number of days a student is in school is a precondition of increasing student outcomes. Student attendance rates are positively and significantly related to standardized test performance and serve as a predictor of school dropout rates.21 Therefore, schools undergoing effective turnaround reform should increase student attendance each year during implementation. To gauge progress on this measure, GOSA tracks the percentage of students missing fewer than six days of school to provide an indicator of chronic absenteeism rather than simply evaluating average school attendance. In general, Georgia's lowest achieving schools had a smaller percentage of students who missed fewer than six days compared to the state average. This gap slightly widened for both 2010-2011 LAS and 2011-2012 LAS by the 2013-2014 school year, meaning that attendance worsened as a whole. Nine schools had a statistically significant increase in the percentage of students missing fewer than six days of school from the year prior to implementation to 2013-2014. Sixteen schools had statistically significant decreases. The remaining nine schools had no statistically significant change. Only one school, Albany High School, saw an increase in the percentage of students missing fewer than six days of school each year of implementation and had an overall statistically significant increase from the year prior to implementation to 2013-2014. Figure 4 shows the 2010-2011 LAS and 2011-2012 LAS and state averages across all five years. Table 8 lists the attendance rates and statistical significance for each 2010-2011 LAS. Table 9 lists the student attendance rates and statistical significance for each 2011-2012 LAS. 21 Lamdin, Douglas J. "Evidence of student attendance as an independent variable in education production functions." The Journal of Educational Research 89.3 (1996). Page 155-162. Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround. (2010). Page 15. 18 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 4: Percent (%) of Students Who Missed Fewer than Six Days of School 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 54.8% 53.7% 40.0% 38.9% 30.0% 20.0% 56.8% 53.7% 41.4% 60.5% 53.5% 43.9% 54.8% 49.4% 39.8% 60.7% 47.1% 39.2% 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 2011-2012 LAS: Harper-Archer MS, Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Lovejoy MS, Freedom MS, McNair MS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, Greenville MS, Baker MS, Eddy MS, Butler HS, Murphey MS, Cowan Rd MS, and Newbern MS 19 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 8: 2010-2011 LAS' Percent of Students Who Missed Fewer Than Six Days of School District School 20092010 (Yr 0) 20102011 (Yr 1) 20112012 (Yr 2) 20122013 (Yr 3) 20132014 (Yr 4) Trend Change Yr4 - Yr0 Atlanta Public Schools Crim High School 26.0% 10.6% 12.1% 11.8% 12.2% Decrease Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 27.8% 33.5% 26.1% 25.7% 23.3% Decrease Bibb County Northeast High School 33.8% 42.7% 41.1% 42.3% 34.2% Not Sig. Bibb County Rutland High School 37.6% 36.3% 41.0% 43.1% 42.2% Increase Bibb County Southwest High School 28.3% 24.0% 38.4% 28.0% 36.1% Increase Bibb County William S. Hutchings Career Center 41.8% 41.5% 44.7% 39.7% 35.5% Decrease Burke County Burke County High School 42.1% 52.5% 63.2% 45.6% 45.2% Increase Chatham County Beach High School 29.8% 27.0% 82.8% 61.5% 62.2% Increase Dade County Dade County High School 36.7% 62.0% 42.0% 38.2% 48.2% Increase DeKalb County Clarkston High School 53.5% 46.4% 45.6% 45.7% N/A N/A DeKalb County McNair High School 35.8% 37.6% 42.8% 41.7% N/A N/A Henry County Henry County High School 45.9% 44.7% 47.0% 46.0% 20.3% Decrease Muscogee County Jordan Vocational High School 37.0% 31.3% 26.8% 30.3% 34.8% Not Sig. Muscogee County Spencer High School 37.5% 36.7% 24.8% 26.4% 26.4% Decrease Peach County Peach County High School 66.7% 62.5% 60.7% 44.6% 50.9% Decrease Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 48.1% 41.9% 40.2% 43.0% 51.6% Not Sig. Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 41.9% 59.7% 55.6% 32.0% 32.1% Decrease Richmond County Josey High School 33.5% 44.3% 45.6% 40.7% 33.0% Not Sig. Richmond County Laney High School 30.8% 56.7% 51.0% 64.2% 64.9% Increase Spalding County Griffin High School 30.6% 36.6% 46.3% 45.0% 52.2% Increase Confidence interval for proportions change in percent of students who missed fewer than six days of school from 2009-2010 to 20132014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that equal to or are above the state average: 54.8% in 2009-2010, 56.8% in 2010-2011, 60.5% in 2011-2012, 54.8% in 2012-2013, and 60.7% in 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant increase in percent of students who missed fewer than six days of school from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant decrease in percent of students who missed fewer than six days of school from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in percent of students who missed fewer than six days of school. 20 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 9: 2011-2012 LAS' Percent of Students Who Missed Fewer Than Six Days of School District School 20092010 (Yr -1) 20102011 (Yr 0) 20112012 (Yr 1) 20122013 (Yr 2) 20132014 (Yr 3) Trend Change Yr3 - Yr0 Atlanta Public Schools Harper-Archer Middle School 74.0% 59.5% 46.5% 53.1% 37.6% Decrease Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Health and Science 38.7% 33.7% 42.2% 32.3% 39.0% Not Sig. Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy 46.1% 38.9% 36.9% 28.5% 40.9% Not Sig. Ben Hill County Fitzgerald High School 36.3% 49.3% 56.1% 49.6% 47.8% Not Sig. Bibb County Central High School 48.4% 52.6% 51.6% 43.1% 44.5% Decrease Chatham County Groves High School 45.5% 31.8% 79.2% 63.1% 59.0% Increase Clayton County Lovejoy Middle School 47.8% 63.9% 62.7% 57.3% 62.5% Not Sig. DeKalb County Freedom Middle School 55.7% 57.4% 59.2% 55.9% N/A N/A DeKalb County McNair Middle School 62.6% 55.9% 55.7% 45.6% N/A N/A DeKalb County Towers High School 49.4% 45.7% 35.2% 38.9% N/A N/A Dougherty County Albany High School 49.0% 42.3% 45.1% 46.6% 50.1% Increase Meriwether County Greenville High School 48.2% 61.9% 54.1% 41.5% 47.0% Decrease Meriwether County Greenville Middle School 82.4% 71.6% 58.0% 51.2% 49.7% Decrease Muscogee County Baker Middle School 66.6% 54.1% 46.0% 57.7% 31.8% Decrease Muscogee County Eddy Middle School 62.4% 71.3% 70.5% 69.0% 51.4% Not Sig. Richmond County Butler High School 35.1% 40.7% 37.2% 36.4% 34.6% Decrease Richmond County Murphey Middle Charter School 67.2% 74.3% 70.8% 56.6% 53.2% Decrease Spalding County Cowan Road Middle School 46.6% 49.0% 45.4% 45.0% 44.9% Decrease Valdosta City Newbern Middle School 58.9% 67.1% 63.2% 56.8% 59.1% Decrease Confidence interval for proportions change in percent of students who missed fewer than six days of school from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that equal to or are above the state average: 54.8% in 2009-2010, 56.8% in 2010-2011, 60.5% in 2011-2012, 54.8% in 2012-2013, and 60.7% in 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant increase in percent of students who missed fewer than six days of school from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant decrease in percent of students who missed fewer than six days of school from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in percent of students who missed fewer than six days of school. 21 | P a g e D. Student Suspension Rate Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Student suspension rates provide another leading indicator of school turnaround efforts. In general, schools with higher suspension rates have higher rates of student dropout and lower standardized test scores.22 However, Mass Insight's School Turnaround Group indicates that the trend in discipline incidents can be counterintuitive in schools undergoing turnaround intervention. Schools undergoing these reforms could see an increase in the number of suspensions in year one. This can be for many reasons, including students at first rebelling against increased rigor, changes in staff, and changes in how discipline is enforced.23 Taking all of this into account, the expected suspension rate trend for schools undergoing reform is an increase in year one and then a decline in the years after. In general, the majority of Georgia's lowest achieving schools have not followed the expected pattern of statistically significant increases in student suspensions in year one and then statistically significant reductions in the following years. The 2010-2011 LAS' gap with the state average closed slightly, but the 2011-2012 LAS gap widened slightly. On average, almost one-fourth of students in Georgia's lowest achieving schools received outof-school suspensions every year. This is almost three times the state average each year. Only four schools, Beach High School, Jordan Vocational High School, Groves High School, and Towers High School, had statistically significant increases in suspension rates in year one and then statistically significant decreases in the following years. Eight schools had a reduction in out-of-school suspension rates in all years after implementation. Seven schools had an increase in out-of-school suspension rates in all years after implementation. Three schools, Northeast High School, William S. Hutchings Career Center, and Dade County High School, had a significant reduction in out-of-suspension rate in the 2013-2014 school and the rates were below the state average. Figure 5 compares the 2010-2011 LAS and 2011-2012 LAS with the state average across all five years. Table 10 lists the suspension rates and statistical significance for each 2010-2011 LAS. Table 11 lists the suspension rates and statistical significance for each 2011-2012 LAS. 22 Losen, Daniel J., and Russell J. Skiba. "Suspended education: Urban middle schools in crisis." (2010). Lee, Talisha, et al. "High suspension schools and dropout rates for black and white students." Education and Treatment of Children 34.2 (2011). Page 167-192. Gregory, Anne, Russell J. Skiba, and Pedro A. Noguera. "The Achievement Gap and the Discipline Gap Two Sides of the Same Coin?" Educational Researcher 39.1 (2010). Page 59-68. 23 Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround. (2010).Page 26. 22 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 5: Percent (%) of Students Suspended Out-of-School 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 24.9% 20.0% 15.0% 21.1% 23.8% 22.6% 26.1% 22.1% 26.2% 22.0% 26.6% 19.3% 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 10.0% 5.0% 8.2% 7.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.8% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 2011-2012 LAS: Harper-Archer MS, Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Lovejoy MS, Freedom MS, McNair MS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, Greenville MS, Baker MS, Eddy MS, Butler HS, Murphey MS, Cowan Rd MS, and Newbern MS 23 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 10: 2010-2011 LAS' Out-of-School Suspension Rate District School 20092010 (Yr 0) 20102011 (Yr 1) 20112012 (Yr 2) 20122013 (Yr 3) 20132014 (Yr 4) Trend Change Yr1-Yr0 Change Yr4-Yr1 Atlanta Public Schools Crim High School N/A 12.1% 27.3% 18.1% 16.8% N/A Increase Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 27.4% 29.7% 31.0% 36.9% 36.7% Increase Increase Bibb County Northeast High School 31.5% 20.6% 16.1% 14.6% 4.8% Decrease Decrease Bibb County Rutland High School 25.6% 18.1% 18.9% 27.1% 23.0% Decrease Increase Bibb County Bibb County Burke County Southwest High School William S. Hutchings Career Center Burke County High School 50.6% 26.8% 34.2% 35.6% 21.4% 14.8% 16.8% 18.9% 14.6% 4.8% 23.1% 18.9% 15.2% 24.1% 23.3% Decrease Decrease Not Sig. Decrease Decrease Increase Chatham County Beach High School 34.9% 39.9% 36.9% 34.7% 24.2% Increase Decrease Dade County Dade County High School 6.4% 7.7% 5.3% 7.5% 4.1% Not. Sig. Decrease DeKalb County Clarkston High School 14.7% 14.7% 15.4% 13.2% 14.6% Not Sig. Not. Sig. DeKalb County McNair High School 11.9% 25.8% 26.6% 35.0% 36.7% Increase Increase Henry County Henry County High School 17.8% 15.3% 14.9% 12.8% 12.7% Decrease Decrease Muscogee County Jordan Vocational High School 25.3% 32.3% 24.0% 26.0% 22.7% Increase Decrease Muscogee County Spencer High School 30.1% 25.6% 21.9% 13.4% 18.6% Decrease Decrease Peach County Peach County High School 7.1% 9.2% 5.8% 9.9% 9.5% Increase Not Sig. Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 27.8% 15.7% 15.3% 16.8% 14.0% Decrease Not Sig. Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 11.5% 20.6% 16.3% 19.1% 34.8% Increase Increase Richmond County Josey High School 47.1% 42.2% 48.5% 35.5% 28.0% Decrease Decrease Richmond County Laney High School 36.3% 33.1% 28.7% 21.2% 17.5% Not Sig. Decrease Spalding County Griffin High School 30.3% 26.7% 21.3% 23.3% 17.4% Decrease Decrease An increase in out-of-school suspensions in the first year, followed by decreases in the years following, is expected in turnaround schools.24 Confidence interval for proportions change in percent of out-of-school suspensions from 2009-2010 to 2010-2011 and change in the percent of out-to-school suspensions from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal or below the state average for that year, 8.2% in 2009-2010, 7.7% in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012, 7.3% in 2012-2013, and 6.8% in 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant increase in out-of-school suspension rates from 2009-2010 to 2010-2011 or 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant decrease in out-of-school suspension rates from 2009-2010 to 2010-2011 or 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in student out-of-school suspension rates. 24 Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround. (2010).Page 26. 24 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 11: 2011-2012 LAS' Out-of-School Suspension Rate District School 20092010 (Yr -1) 20102011 (Yr 0) 20112012 (Yr 1) 20122013 (Yr 2) 20132014 (Yr 3) Trend Change Yr1- Yr0 Change Yr3- Yr1 Atlanta Public Schools Atlanta Public Schools Atlanta Public Schools Harper-Archer Middle School Therrell School of Health and Science Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy 7.6% 14.1% 22.4% 38.4% 30.8% 33.4% 38.7% 37.8% 30.4% 28.1% 22.5% 32.2% 34.5% 19.2% 24.6% Increase Increase Not Sig Decrease Not Sig Decrease Ben Hill County Fitzgerald High School 10.1% 10.1% 8.1% 10.1% 10.6% Not Sig. Increase Bibb County Central High School 25.9% 28.4% 13.1% 20.9% 19.6% Decrease Increase Chatham County Groves High School 31.6% 21.2% 29.6% 21.9% 19.9% Increase Decrease Clayton County Lovejoy Middle School 19.6% 12.8% 15.2% 14.6% 15.5% Increase Not Sig. DeKalb County Freedom Middle School 24.3% 21.8% 23.1% 17.7% 20.7% Not Sig. Decrease DeKalb County McNair Middle School 7.9% 17.1% 41.8% 44.2% 49.2% Increase Increase DeKalb County Towers High School 34.4% 30.3% 39.2% 35.3% 26.3% Increase Decrease Dougherty County Albany High School 17.6% 17.9% 12.1% 21.3% 18.5% Decrease Increase Meriwether County Greenville High School 16.6% 19.9% 12.9% 16.2% 10.3% Decrease Not Sig. Meriwether County Greenville Middle School 8.8% 13.4% 16.4% 20.8% 22.8% Not Sig. Increase Muscogee County Baker Middle School 27.4% 36.3% 38.0% 47.6% 51.8% Not Sig. Increase Muscogee County Eddy Middle School 32.9% 25.5% 36.0% 36.5% 32.5% Increase Not Sig. Richmond County Butler High School 31.5% 32.5% 33.2% 23.8% 29.4% Not Sig. Decrease Richmond County Murphey Middle Charter School 33.0% 29.1% 27.4% 30.0% 37.1% Not Sig. Increase Spalding County Cowan Road Middle School 17.6% 21.2% 23.5% 21.7% 20.0% Not Sig. Decrease Valdosta City Newbern Middle School 16.5% 22.5% 23.2% 32.3% 30.7% Not Sig. Increase An increase in out-of-school suspensions in the first year, followed by decreases in the years following, is expected in turnaround schools.25 Confidence interval for proportions change in percent of out-of-school suspensions from 2010-2011 to 2011-2012 and change in percent of out-ofschool suspensions from 2011-2012 to 2013-2014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal or below the state average for that year: 8.2% in 2009-2010, 7.7% in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012, 7.3% in 20122013, and 6.8% in 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant increase in out-of-school suspension rates from 2010-2011 to 2011-2012 or 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant decrease in out-of-school suspension rates from 2010-2011 to 2011-2012 or 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in student out-of-school suspension rates. 25 Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround. (2010).Page 26. 25 | P a g e E. Student In-Grade Retention Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Student in-grade retention, which occurs when a student is in the same grade two school years in a row, is another leading indicator of school turnaround efforts.26 Students are typically retained in-grade if they do not meet the academic or social skill levels to move on to the next grade, and retention is a strong predictor of school dropouts.27 As such, schools undergoing turnaround reform should see a decrease in student in-grade retention rates each year during implementation. As a whole, Georgia's lowest achieving schools have had small but statistically significant reductions in student retention. The gap with the state average decreased in both cohorts, with a larger improvement in the 2011-2012 cohort. On average, about 11% of students in Georgia's lowest achieving schools were retained in-grade each year, which is three times the state average. The in-grade retention rate gap with the state average narrowed for both 2010-2011 LAS and 2011-2012 LAS by the 2013-2014 school year. Nineteen schools had statistically significant decreases in retention rates from the year prior to implementation to the 2013-2014 school year. Four schools had statistically significant increases. Eleven schools had no statistically significant change and the remaining schools had insufficient data.28 Of LAS middle schools with enough students to report, the majority had lower retention rates than LAS high schools.29 Figure 6 shows the group (2010-2011 LAS and 2011-2012 LAS) and state averages across all five years. Table 12 lists the retention rates and statistical significance for each 2010-2011 LAS. Table 13 lists the retention rates and statistical significance for each 2011-2012 LAS school. 26 "Indicators." The Governor's Office of Student Achievement. The Governor's Office of Student Achievement, n.d. Web. 22 Aug. 2014. . 27 Llagas, Charmaine, and Thomas D. Snyder. Status and trends in the education of Hispanics. National Center for Education Statistics, US Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, 2003. Jimerson, S. R., Anderson, G. E. and Whipple, A. D. (2002), Winning the battle and losing the war: Examining the relation between grade retention and dropping out of high school. Psychol. Schs., 39: 441457. doi: 10.1002/pits.10046 28 Insufficient data is a result of there being Too Few Students to report. GOSA does not report on groups of fewer than 10 students. 29 Middle schools without enough data had Too Few Students to report. Lower middle school retention rates pull down 2011-2012 LAS average retention rate. 26 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 6: Percent (%) of Students Retained in Grade 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 11.8% 10.0% 11.1% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.7% 13.3% 11.3% 12.9% 11.1% 11.1% 9.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 9.6% 7.2% 3.1% 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 2.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 2011-2012 LAS: Harper-Archer MS, Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Lovejoy MS, Freedom MS, McNair MS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, Greenville MS, Baker MS, Eddy MS, Butler HS, Murphey MS, Cowan Rd MS, and Newbern MS 27 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 12: 2010-2011 LAS' Student In-Grade Retention Rate District School 20092010 (Yr 0) 20102011 (Yr 1) 20112012 (Yr 2) 20122013 (Yr 3) 20132014 (Yr 4) Atlanta Public Schools Crim High School 42.7% 43.8% 59.0% 38.2% 34.6% Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 14.2% 10.5% 27.4% 13.2% 15.8% Bibb County Northeast High School 5.6% 19.4% 10.1% 12.0% 10.8% Trend Change Yr4 - Yr0 Decrease Not Sig. Increase Bibb County Rutland High School 12.0% 16.8% 12.9% 15.9% 12.9% Not Sig. Bibb County Bibb County Burke County Southwest High School William S. Hutchings Career Center Burke County High School 7.8% 6.9% 7.5% 16.4% 15.2% 11.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.8% 14.3% 8.8% 10.7% 7.5% 8.0% 11.0% Not Sig. Not Sig. Increase Chatham County Beach High School 24.2% 22.4% 18.7% 17.3% 8.3% Decrease Dade County Dade County High School 5.0% 5.4% 3.3% 2.2% 4.0% Not Sig. DeKalb County Clarkston High School 9.4% 14.4% 13.6% 10.5% 15.2% Increase DeKalb County McNair High School 13.4% 17.2% 3.3% 11.8% 13.3% Not Sig. Henry County Muscogee County Muscogee County Henry County High School Jordan Vocational High School Spencer High School 9.0% 8.6% 10.9% 7.3% 6.8% 8.9% 6.3% 7.0% 9.3% 6.1% 3.8% 6.7% 4.4% 3.8% 6.1% Decrease Decrease Decrease Peach County Peach County High School 10.5% 9.5% 12.1% 5.6% 4.1% Decrease Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 8.9% 3.7% 3.2% 4.6% 3.6% Decrease Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 13.5% 7.6% 10.0% 10.8% 10.7% Decrease Richmond County Josey High School 7.3% 12.8% 11.6% 14.8% 9.2% Not Sig. Richmond County Laney High School 10.5% 8.3% 9.1% 5.2% 6.7% Decrease Spalding County Griffin High School 8.3% 9.0% 16.3% 9.7% 1.7% Decrease Confidence interval for proportions change in student retention rate from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that equal or are below the state average: 3.7% in 2009-2010, 3.6% in 2010-2011, 3.4% in 2011-2012, 3.3% in 2012-2013, and 3.1% in 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant decrease in student retention rates from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant increase in student retention rates from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in student in-grade retention rates. 28 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 13: 2011-2012 LAS' Student In-Grade Retention Rate District School 20092010 (Yr -1) 20102011 (Yr 0) 20112012 (Yr 1) 20122013 (Yr 2) 20132014 (Yr 3) Trend Change Yr3 - Yr0 Atlanta Public Schools Harper-Archer Middle School TFS TFS TFS TFS 4.0% N/A Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Health and Science 22.0% 29.1% 28.2% 22.3% 18.4% Decrease Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy 22.7% 29.1% 35.2% 23.4% 6.8% Decrease Ben Hill County Fitzgerald High School 9.7% 12.6% 11.6% 5.5% 6.0% Decrease Bibb County Central High School 10.6% 15.3% 10.9% 8.3% 10.1% Decrease Chatham County Groves High School 21.4% 22.6% 19.9% 21.2% 13.1% Decrease Clayton County Lovejoy Middle School TFS TFS TFS TFS TFS N/A DeKalb County Freedom Middle School 1.2% 2.7% 2.2% 1.3% 1.2% Decrease DeKalb County McNair Middle School TFS 4.3% 1.5% TFS TFS N/A DeKalb County Towers High School 10.7% 18.9% 14.3% 11.5% 9.1% Decrease Dougherty County Albany High School 5.7% 11.7% 9.4% 8.1% 9.4% Decrease Meriwether County Greenville High School 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 5.8% 4.9% Not Sig. Meriwether County Greenville Middle School TFS TFS TFS TFS TFS N/A Muscogee County Baker Middle School TFS 5.1% TFS 5.8% 5.6% Not Sig. Muscogee County Eddy Middle School 4.2% 5.4% 5.1% 4.0% 3.5% Not Sig. Richmond County Butler High School 14.0% 9.9% 9.8% 12.8% 13.8% Increase Richmond County Murphey Middle Charter School TFS 2.3% 2.5% TFS 1.6% Not Sig. Spalding County Cowan Road Middle School TFS 1.8% 3.3% 1.6% TFS N/A Valdosta City Newbern Middle School 7.4% 2.4% 4.6% 5.7% 1.3% Decrease Confidence interval for proportions change in student retention rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014: p<.05 "TFS" = too few students, GOSA does not report on fewer than 10 students "N/A" = data not available Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal or below the state average: 3.7% in 2009-2010, 3.6% in 2010-2011, 3.4% in 2011-2012, 3.3% in 2012- 2013, and 3.1% in 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant decrease in student retention rates from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant increase in student retention rates from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in student in-grade retention rates. 29 | P a g e F. Student Dropout Rate Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Researchers identify student dropout rate as both a leading and lagging indicator of school turnaround.30 Federal SIG metric requirements include student dropout rates as a leading indicator. However, Mass Insight Education concludes that student dropout rates are the lagging indicator that corresponds with student attendance rates and student in-grade retention rates. In either case, higher student dropout rates lead to fewer students attaining a high school diploma. Schools undergoing effective turnaround reform should show decrease in student dropout rates each year during implementation. The 9th-12th grade dropout rate is used for this indicator, so only high schools are included below. In general, Georgia's lowest achieving schools have not had statistically significant reductions in student dropout rates. For 2010-2011 LAS high schools, the average dropout rate decreased from 7.6% to 6.4% in the first year of implementation, but it climbed to 6.9% by 2012-2013 before dropping back to 6.4% in 2013-3014. The state high school average dropout rate hovered around 3.6%. For 2011-2012 LAS high schools, the average dropout rate increased from 4.8% to 6.1% in the first year of implementation, but it dropped to 3.9% in the second year, just above the state average. However, the dropout rate rose again to 5.6% in the third year. Only two schools, Crim High School and Burke County High School, had reductions in student dropout rates each year of implementation. Most notably, Crim High School's dropout rate decreased from 64.7% in the year prior to implementation to 25.5% in the fourth year of implementation. Only two schools, Burke County High School and Greenville High School, had student dropout rates lower than the state average each year of implementation. Seven schools, Crim High School, Rutland High School, Burke County High School, Dade County High School, Henry County High School, Laney High School, and Fitzgerald High School, had a statistically significant reduction in student dropout rates from the year prior to implementation to the 2013-2014 school year. Eight schools had a statistically significant increase, and 14 schools had no statistically significant change. Figure 7 shows 2010-2011 LAS, 2011-2012 LAS high schools, and state averages across all four years. Table 14 lists the dropout rates and statistical significance of each 2010-2011 LAS. Table 15 lists the dropout rates and statistical significance of each 2011-2012 LAS high school. 30 Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround. (2010). Page 15. Center on Innovation & Improvement, Mid-Atlantic Comprehensive Center, and Appalachia Regional Comprehensive Center. School Improvement Grants Online Tool: Monitoring and Evaluating Transformations by FEDERAL REQUIREMENTS. Lincoln, Illinois: Academic Development Institute, 2011. PDF. Page 7. 30 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 7: Percent (%) of Students Who Dropped Out of High School 8.0% 7.6% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.6% 6.4% 4.8% 3.7% 6.5% 6.1% 3.8% 6.9% 3.9% 3.6% 6.4% 5.6% 3.7% 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 2.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 2011-2012 LAS High Schools: Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, and Butler HS 31 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 14: 2010-2011 LAS' Percent of Students Who Dropped Out of School District School 20092010 (Yr 0) 20102011 (Yr 1) 20112012 (Yr 2) 20122013 (Yr 3) 20132014 (Yr 4) Trend Change Yr4 Yr0 Atlanta Public Schools Crim High School 64.7% 37.3% 34.8% 29.6% 25.5% Decrease Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 4.6% 8.1% 10.6% 9.5% 11.7% Increase Bibb County Northeast High School 5.9% 8.7% 6.1% 8.2% 6.5% Not Sig. Bibb County Rutland High School 9.0% 7.6% 6.8% 5.6% 6.8% Decrease Bibb County Southwest High School 8.5% 8.4% 5.8% 9.8% 9.8% Not Sig. Bibb County William S. Hutchings Career Center 3.3% 4.4% 2.9% 5.5% 3.8% Not Sig. Burke County Burke County High School 5.7% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.0% Decrease Chatham County Beach High School 5.4% 3.6% 3.6% 4.8% 5.5% Not Sig. Dade County Dade County High School 4.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.7% 2.2% Decrease DeKalb County Clarkston High School 2.3% 3.9% 6.3% 7.8% 7.9% Increase DeKalb County McNair High School 4.0% 5.5% 6.2% 4.1% 5.0% Not Sig. Henry County Henry County High School 5.9% 5.7% 7.1% 5.7% 3.4% Decrease Muscogee County Jordan Vocational High School 7.9% 6.6% 7.1% 8.1% 9.4% Not Sig. Muscogee County Spencer High School 4.5% 4.2% 5.8% 4.4% 5.5% Not Sig. Peach County Peach County High School 2.2% 4.0% 4.3% 4.9% 2.9% Not Sig. Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 3.2% 2.2% 2.8% 5.3% 5.2% Increase Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 0.6% 4.2% 2.3% 6.2% 3.1% Increase Richmond County Josey High School 2.0% 1.9% 5.8% 3.9% 6.1% Increase Richmond County Laney High School 3.9% 1.3% 3.2% 3.7% 1.3% Decrease Spalding County Griffin High School 3.2% 5.2% 4.6% 5.5% 4.6% Increase Confidence interval for proportions--change in student dropout rate from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal or below the 9-12 state average: 3.6% in 2009-2010, 3.7% in 2010-2011, 3.8% in 2011-2012, 3.6% in 2012-2013, and 3.7% in 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant decrease in student dropout rates from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant increase in student dropout rates from 2009-2010 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in student dropout rates. 32 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 15: 2011-2012 LAS High Schools' Percent of Students Who Dropped Out of School District School 20092010 (Yr -1) 20102011 (Yr 0) 20112012 (Yr 1) 20122013 (Yr 2) 20132014 (Yr 3) Trend Change Yr3 Yr0 Atlanta Public Schools Atlanta Public Schools Ben Hill County Therrell School of Health and Science Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy Fitzgerald High School 4.3% 5.1% 4.1% 3.3% 14.6% 5.0% 5.2% 6.3% 10.7% 4.8% 6.8% 7.0% 3.9% 1.9% 3.8% Not Sig. Not Sig. Decrease Bibb County Central High School 8.0% 6.7% 4.0% 5.7% 7.3% Not Sig. Chatham County Groves High School 8.0% 3.6% 2.1% 3.8% 6.8% Increase DeKalb County Towers High School 6.2% 5.6% 6.8% 3.2% 5.6% Not Sig. Dougherty County Albany High School 2.8% 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 6.4% Not Sig. Meriwether County Greenville High School 1.7% 2.6% 3.0% 2.6% 3.5% Not Sig. Richmond County Butler High School 5.0% 3.0% 5.5% 3.7% 5.3% Increase Confidence interval for proportions--change in student dropout rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal or below the 9-12 state average: 3.6% in 2009-2010, 3.7% in 2010-2011, 3.8% in 2011-2012, 3.6% in 2012-2013, and 3.7% in 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant decrease in student dropout rates from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant increase in student dropout rates from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in student dropout rates. 33 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 IV. Lagging Indicators A. Standardized Test Scores Standardized test scores are a lagging indicator of school turnaround efforts because effective turnarounds typically demonstrate a statistically significant increase in year two or three.31 GOSA used two standardized tests employed in Georgia to measure the progress of lowest achieving schools, the End of Course Tests (EOCT) and the Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests (CRCT). For the years examined in this study, Georgia high school students took EOCTs that align with Georgia's statemandated content standards associated with a specific course.32 This report examines the scores in one course in each core subject: American Literature and Composition, Biology, Mathematics II, and US History. In grades 3 to 8, Georgia students took CRCTs, which measure the skills and knowledge described in state-mandated content standards in reading, English language arts, mathematics, science and social studies.33 2010-2011 LAS are all high schools, so no CRCT data are included for these schools. 2011-2012 LAS include both high schools and middle schools. Therefore, both EOCT and CRCT data are included for 2011-2012 LAS. i. End of Course Tests (EOCT) As a whole, Georgia's lowest achieving schools have had statistically significant increases in EOCT scores in each subject every year. While these increases were similar to changes in performance at the state level, the lowest achieving schools did outgain the state in all four subjects. The gap between both LAS groups' American Literature and Composition scores and the state average slightly narrowed for both 2010-2011 LAS and 2011-2012 LAS. For 2010-2011 LAS, the gap narrowed by 5 percentage points. For 2011-2012 LAS, it narrowed by 3 percentage points. Scores on the Biology EOCT also saw the gains relative to the state average. For 2010-2011 LAS, the gap decreased from roughly 26 percentage points to 22 percentage points. For 2011-2012 LAS, the gap decreased from roughly 22 percentage points to 17 percentage points. The gap with the state average narrowed slightly in Mathematics II, from 25 to 19 percentage points for 2010-2011 LAS and from 26 to 22 percentage points for 2011-2012 LAS. It should be noted that in 2013-2014, Georgia changed from Mathematics II to Analytic Geometry for EOCT 31Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround. (2010). Page 25. 32 "End of Course Tests (EOCT)." End of Course Tests (EOCT). Georgia Department of Education, n.d. Web. 14 Sept. 2014. . 33 "Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests (CRCT)." Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests (CRCT). Georgia Department of Education, n.d. Web. 14 Sept. 2014. . 34 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 tests. Therefore, the information on Mathematics II is based on data from 2009-2010 to 20122013. In U.S. History, the gap narrowed by 2 percentage points for 2010-2011 LAS and by 4 percentage points for 2011-2012 LAS. Fourteen of the 29 high schools had statistically significant increases in three or more subjects from the year before implementation to the 2013-2014 school year. Ten had statistically significant increases in two subjects. Two schools had statistically significant increases in only one subject. The remaining three schools had no statistically significant gains. Five schools had a statistically significant decrease in a subject from the year prior to implementation to the 2013-2014 school year. Figures 8-11 show the 2010-2011 LAS, 2011-2012 LAS, and state averages for each EOCT subject across all five years. Table 17 provides each school's results over that time for each EOCT subject for each 2010-2011 LAS. Table 18 provides the same information for 2011-2012 LAS. 35 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 8: Percent (%) of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on American Literature and Composition End-of-Course-Test 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 85.9% 75.0% 73.1% 87.9% 78.4% 76.3% 89.4% 81.9% 77.4% 90.9% 81.3% 78.9% 92.3% 85.6% 84.7% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 2011-2012 LAS: Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, and Butler HS 36 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 9: Percent (%) of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on Biology End-of-Course-Test 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 66.3% 40.3% 39.7% 69.4% 47.3% 42.6% 72.6% 50.2% 48.5% 74.3% 58.6% 56.3% 74.9% 57.7% 53.4% 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Refer to Figure 8 for a list of schools included in the graph. 37 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 10: Percent (%) of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on Mathematics II End-of-Course-Test 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 54.7% 30.1% 22.4% 2009-2010 57.7% 31.9% 30.1% 2010-2011 58.7% 38.2% 30.0% 2011-2012 63.1% 43.8% 41.1% 2012-2013 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State In 2013-2014, Georgia changed from Mathematics II to Analytic Geometry for EOCT tests. As such, 2013-2014 school year is not included. Refer to Figure 8 for a list of schools included in the graph. 38 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 11: Percent (%) of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on US History End-of-Course-Test 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 60.4% 35.1% 32.1% 64.9% 41.4% 39.0% 68.7% 71.8% 45.8% 43.6% 51.6% 49.4% 72.5% 52.4% 50.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State Refer to Figure 8 for a list of schools included in the graph. 39 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 17: 2010-2011 LAS Significant Changes from Before to After Implementation District Atlanta Public Schools School Crim High School Subjects with Sig. Increase 1 of 4 subjects: AL Subjects with Sig. Decrease 0 Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 4 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2, US H 0 Bibb County Northeast High School 2 of 4 subjects: B, M2 1 of 4 subjects: US H Bibb County Rutland High School 3 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2 0 Bibb County Bibb County Burke County Southwest High School William S. Hutchings Career Center Burke County High School 4 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2, US H 2 of 4 subjects: B, M2 3 of 4 subjects: AL, B, US H 0 0 1 of 4 subjects: M2 Chatham County Beach High School 4 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2, US H 0 Dade County Dade County High School 4 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2, US H 0 DeKalb County Clarkston High School 2 of 4 subjects: B, US H 0 DeKalb County McNair High School 2 of 4 subjects: AL, M2 1 of 4 subjects: B Henry County Henry County High School 2 of 4 subjects: M2, US H 0 Muscogee County Jordan Vocational High School 3 of 4 subjects: AL, B, US H 0 Muscogee County Spencer High School 3 of 4 subjects: AL, B, US H 0 Peach County Peach County High School 0 1 of 4 subjects: B Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 2 of 4 subjects: B, M2 0 Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 3 of 4 subjects: AL, M2, US H 0 Richmond County Josey High School 3 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2 0 Richmond County Laney High School 4 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2, US H 0 Spalding County Griffin High School 4 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2, US H 0 Confidence interval for proportions change in student meets or exceeds rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014 for AL, B, and US H, and from 2010-2011 to 2012-2013 for M2: p<.05 EOCT Abbreviations: American Literature and Composition (AL), Biology (B), Mathematics II (M2), and US History (US H) Green text indicates a statistically significant increase in three or more subjects. 40 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 18: 2011-2012 LAS High Schools Significant Changes from Before to After Implementation District Atlanta Public Schools Atlanta Public Schools Ben Hill County School Therrell School of Health and Science Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy Fitzgerald High School Subjects with Increase 2 of 4 subjects: B, M2 1 of 4 subjects: M2 0 Subjects with Decrease 0 0 0 Bibb County Central High School 2 of 4 subjects: M2, US H 0 Chatham County Groves High School 4 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2, US H 0 DeKalb County Towers High School 2 of 4 subjects: B, US H 1 of 4 subjects: M2 Dougherty County Albany High School 2 of 4 subjects: B, US H 0 Meriwether County Greenville High School 3 of 4 subjects: AL, B, M2 0 Richmond County Butler High School 0 0 Confidence interval for proportions change in student meets or exceeds rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014 for AL, B, and US H, and from 2010-2011 to 2012-2013 for M2: p<.05 EOCT Abbreviations: American Literature and Composition (AL), Biology (B), Mathematics II (M2), and US History (US H) Green text indicates a statistically significant increase in three or more subjects. 41 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 ii. Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests (CRCT) CRCT scores for LAS middle schools increased in Reading, Science, and Social Studies. However, these improvements largely mirror gains in the state average. The LAS' scores for English Language Arts and Math declined from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. In reading, LAS middle schools decreased the gap with the state average from 9 to 8 percentage points between 2010-2011 and 2013-2014. In math, the gap with the state average increased from 18 to 24 percentage points. In ELA, the gap widened from 9 to 12 percentage points. In science, the gap closed slightly from 30 to 28 percentage points. In social studies, the gap decreased by 8 percentage points, from 34 to 26 percentage points. Only one LAS middle school, Lovejoy Middle School, had statistically significant increases in four or more subjects from 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. Seven schools had increases in two or three subjects. Two schools had a statistically significant increase in only one subject. Six schools had statistically significant decreases in one or two subjects from 2011-2012 to 2013- 2014. Figures 12-16 show the 2011-2012 LAS middle schools' and state averages for each CRCT subject across all five years. Table 19 lists the statistical significant change for each CRCT subject for every 2011-2012 LAS middle school. 42 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 12: Percent of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on Reading CRCT 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 92.3% 82.0% 94.1% 85.2% 95.9% 87.9% 96.2% 88.4% 96.6% 88.4% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 2011-2012 LAS State 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2011-2012 LAS: Harper-Archer MS, Lovejoy MS, Freedom MS, McNair MS, Greenville MS, Baker MS, Eddy MS, Murphey MS, Cowan Rd MS, and Newbern MS State scores are the average of grade 6, 7, and 8 CRCT scores 43 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 13: Percent of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on Mathematics CRCT 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 81.3% 63.2% 84.0% 65.6% 85.6% 69.3% 86.9% 67.2% 86.4% 62.8% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Refer to Figure 12 for a list of schools included in the graph. 2011-2012 LAS State 44 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 14: Percent of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on English Language Arts CRCT 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 92.0% 83.3% 92.4% 93.6% 93.3% 83.2% 84.7% 82.7% 93.4% 81.4% 2011-2012 LAS State 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Refer to Figure 12 for a list of schools included in the graph. 45 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 15: Percent of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on Science CRCT 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 71.6% 44.4% 73.5% 76.9% 77.9% 79.1% 43.1% 49.7% 51.2% 51.7% 2011-2012 LAS State 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Refer to Figure 12 for a list of schools included in the graph. 46 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 16: Percent of Students Who Meet or Exceed State Standards on Social Studies CRCT 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 68.3% 73.0% 75.9% 79.5% 81.3% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 34.5% 39.5% 45.1% 51.0% 55.2% 2011-2012 LAS State 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Refer to Figure 12 for a list of schools included in the graph. 47 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 19: 2011-2012 LAS Middle Schools Significant Changes in CRCT Scores by Subject from Before to After Implementation District Atlanta Public Schools School Harper-Archer Middle School Subjects with Increase 3 of 5 subjects: R, S, SS Subjects with Decrease 0 Clayton County Lovejoy Middle School 4 of 5 subjects: ELA, R, S, SS 0 DeKalb County Freedom Middle School 1 of 5 subjects: SS 2 of 5 subjects: ELA, M DeKalb County McNair Middle School 1 of 5 subjects: SS 2 of 5 subjects: ELA, M Meriwether County Greenville Middle School 2 of 5 subjects: S, SS 1 of 5 subjects: M Muscogee County Baker Middle School 2 of 5 subjects: S, SS 1 of 5 subjects: M Muscogee County Richmond County Spalding County Eddy Middle School Murphey Middle Charter School Cowan Road Middle School 3 of 5 subjects: R, S, SS 3 of 5 subjects: R, S, SS 3 of 5 subjects: M, S, SS 0 0 1 of 5 subjects: ELA Valdosta City Newbern Middle School 3 of 5 subjects: R, S, SS 1 of 5 subjects: M Confidence interval for proportions change in student meets or exceeds rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014: p<.05 CRCT Abbreviations: English Language Arts (ELA), Mathematics (M), Reading (R), Science (S), and Social Studies (SS) Green indicates a significant increase in four or more subjects. 48 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 B. Graduation Rate Graduation rate also serves a lagging indicator of school turnaround efforts because significant improvements in this metric are not expected until the third year of implementation. Mass Insight Education identifies graduation rate as a lagging indicator that corresponds with attendance rate and ingrade retention rate.34 According to federal requirements, while improvements in lagging indicators, such as graduation rate, should happen by year three, gradual increases could be seen in years one and two.35 Therefore, schools undergoing effective turnaround reform should see an increase in graduation rates each year of implementation, with the largest increase occurring in year three. In Georgia, the graduation rate calculation changed in 2010-2011 to meet federal requirements.36 Therefore, comparisons to prior years are not possible. For 2010-2011 LAS, change in graduation rate is calculated as the difference from year one (2010-2011 school year) to year four (2013-2014 school year) because comparable graduation rate data from the year before implementation are not available. For 2011-2012 LAS, the change is still calculated as the difference between the graduation rate of the year before implementation (2010-2011 school year) and year three (2013-2014 school year). Since the graduation rate is a high school metric, data are only presented for the 29 high schools. In general, more than half of Georgia's lowest achieving schools saw a statistically significant increase in graduation rate from the 2010-2011 school year to the 2013-2014 school year. However, these gains generally mirrored gains in the state's graduation rate. On average, 54% to 60% of students in Georgia's lowest achieving schools graduated from high school each year. This is at least 10 percentage points lower than the state average. Both rates increased slightly between 2010-2011 and 2013-2014. Sixteen schools had a statistically significant increase in graduation rate from 2010-2011 school year to 2013-2014 school year. Six schools had a statistically significant decrease, and seven had no statistically significant change. Southwest High School, Beach High School, Jordan Vocational High School, Laney High School, Griffin High School, and Albany High School had an increase in graduation rate every year since implementation. Only two schools, Dade County High School and Fitzgerald High School, had graduation rates above the state average every year during implementation. Figure 17 shows the 2010-2011 LAS and 2011-2012 LAS and state averages across all four years. Table 20 lists the graduation rates and statistical significance for each 2010-2011 LAS. Table 21 lists the graduation rates and statistical significant for each 2011-2012 LAS. 34 Pallin, Evaluating School Turnaround. (2010). Page 15. 35 Center on Innovation & Improvement, Mid-Atlantic Comprehensive Center, and Appalachia Regional Comprehensive Center. School Improvement Grants Online Tool: Monitoring and Evaluating Transformations by FEDERAL REQUIREMENTS. Lincoln, Illinois: Academic Development Institute, 2011. PDF. Page 7. 36 "Indicators." The Governor's Office of Student Achievement. The Governor's Office of Student Achievement, n.d. Web. 22 Aug. 2014. . 49 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 17: Percent (%) of Students Who Graduated from High School 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 67.5% 54.7% 54.1% 69.7% 59.3% 55.4% 71.8% 57.0% 57.2% 72.5% 60.2% 59.2% 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 In 2010-2011, Georgia changed from a proxy rate calculation to a Cohort rate calculation for graduation rate. As such, prior years are not included. 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 2011-2012 LAS: Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, and Butler HS 50 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 20: 2010-2011 LAS' Graduation Rate School District School Name 20102011 (Yr 1) Atlanta Public Schools Crim High School* 7.5% Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 47.6% Bibb County Northeast High School 51.8% 20112012 (Yr 2) 4.2% 40.5% 47.2% 20122013 (Yr 3) 7.5% 49.6% 52.5% 20132014 (Yr 4) 6.0% 42.5% 65.0% Trend Change Yr4 - Yr1 Not Sig. Decrease Increase Bibb County Rutland High School 59.0% 64.1% 72.3% 59.3% Not Sig. Bibb County Southwest High School 38.3% 39.1% 45.6% 56.1% Increase Bibb County William S. Hutchings Career Center 68.3% 71.6% 58.7% 54.7% Decrease Burke County Burke County High School 67.4% 74.7% 77.9% 76.6% Increase Chatham County Beach High School 51.9% 55.4% 64.7% 70.0% Increase Dade County Dade County High School 70.6% 80.1% 80.7% 76.9% Increase DeKalb County Clarkston High School 54.7% 44.2% 53.8% 51.9% Decrease DeKalb County McNair High School 53.0% 47.0% 46.6% 52.4% Not Sig. Henry County Henry County High School 72.8% 77.3% 77.7% 69.3% Decrease Muscogee County Jordan Vocational High School 43.6% 45.7% 56.1% 63.1% Increase Muscogee County Spencer High School 61.7% 60.3% 54.6% 66.0% Increase Peach County Peach County High School 61.1% 66.6% 63.3% 68.6% Increase Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 71.7% 70.3% 73.4% 72.3% Not Sig. Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 45.9% 57.1% 42.2% 50.5% Increase Richmond County Josey High School 46.7% 51.7% 49.6% 43.8% Not Sig. Richmond County Laney High School 47.3% 48.8% 51.3% 72.7% Increase Spalding County Griffin High School 61.7% 62.9% 65.1% 65.5% Increase *Crim High School is an alternative school serving many students who are academically off track. As such, the graduation rate is much lower than other LAS. Confidence interval for proportions--change in graduation rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal to or above the state average for that year: 67.5% in 2010-2011, 69.7% in 2011-2012, 71.8% in 2012-2013, and 72.5% in 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant increase in graduation rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant decrease in graduation rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in graduation rate. 51 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 21: 2011-2012 LAS High Schools' Graduation Rate School District School Name 20102011 (Yr 0) 20112012 (Yr 1) 20122013 (Yr 2) 20132014 (Yr 3) Trend Change Yr3 Yr0 Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Health and Science 49.2% 67.7% 46.3% 54.7% Not Sig. Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy 65.7% 38.7% 48.9% 52.0% Decrease Ben Hill County Fitzgerald High School 64.9% 73.7% 83.5% 74.2% Increase Bibb County Central High School 52.1% 52.8% 66.4% 54.7% Not Sig. Chatham County Groves High School 51.5% 62.9% 54.3% 64.7% Increase DeKalb County Towers High School 43.9% 47.2% 44.1% 53.7% Increase Dougherty County Albany High School 54.5% 66.3% 66.7% 76.6% Increase Meriwether County Greenville High School 62.8% 78.2% 64.2% 75.0% Increase Richmond County Butler High School 47.3% 46.6% 38.4% 35.9% Decrease Confidence interval for proportions change in graduation rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal to or above the state average for that year: 67.5% in 2010-2011, 69.7% in 2011-2012, 71.8% in 2012-2013, and 72.5% in 2013-2014. Green text indicates a statistically significant increase in graduation rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Red text indicates a statistically significant decrease in graduation rate from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in graduation rate. 52 | P a g e C. College Enrollment Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 College Enrollment rate also serves a lagging indicator of school turnaround efforts because significant improvements in this metric are not expected until the third year of implementation. GOSA tracks college enrollment as the percentage of students who enroll in college within 16 months of graduating from high school, which aligns with federal reporting of college enrollment in the c(11) report. For example, the figures for 2009-2010 represent the percentage of 2009-2010 high school graduates that enrolled in college courses within 16 months of graduation. Therefore, the data for this indicator are lagged to allow for 16 months after a student graduates. As a result, college enrollment information is available only for students graduating in 2009-2010 through 2011-2012. Since information for the third year of implementation is not yet available, these data should be interpreted more as a baseline than as outcomes. Both the state average and the averages for the two groups of LAS decreased slightly from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012. In both groups, the gap widened slightly. The state's college enrollment rate has hovered between 73 and 75%. The LAS enrollment rate decreased from roughly 68% to 64% from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012. Nine schools had an increase in college enrollment rates over the three-year period. However, only one school, Fitzgerald High School, had a statistically significant increase in college enrollment. In 20 schools, the college enrollment rate decreased over the three-year period, but the change was not statistically significant. Three schools, Hawkinsville High School, Central High School, and Albany High School, had a college enrollment rate above the state average in all three years. Figure 18 shows the 2010-2011 LAS, 2011-2012 LAS and state averages from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012. Table 22 lists the college enrollment rates and statistical significance for each 2010-2011 LAS. Table 23 lists the college enrollment rates and statistical significance for each 2011-2012 LAS. 53 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Figure 18: Percent (%) of Students Who Enrolled in College within 16 months of Graduating High School 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 75.6% 68.6% 67.9% 2009-2010 73.7% 68.0% 65.9% 2010-2011 74.2% 64.3% 62.7% 2011-2012 2010-2011 LAS 2011-2012 LAS State 2009-2010 data represents those students who graduated high school in 2010. 2010-2011 data represents those students who graduated high school in 2011. 2011-2012 data represents those students who graduated high school in 2012. 2010-2011 LAS: Crim HS, Douglass HS, Northeast HS, Rutland HS, Southwest HS, Hutchings CC, Burke HS, Beach HS, Dade HS, Clarkston HS, McNair HS, Henry HS, Jordan Voc. HS, Spencer HS, Peach HS, Hawkinsville HS, Glenn Hills HS, Josey HS, Laney HS, and Griffin HS 2011-2012 LAS: Therrell Health Science, Therrell Law, Fitzgerald HS, Central HS, Groves HS, Towers HS, Albany HS, Greenville HS, and Butler HS 54 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 22: 2010-2011 LAS' College Enrollment Rate School District School Name 20092010 (Yr 0) 20102011 (Yr 1) 20112012 (Yr 2) Trend Change Yr2 Yr0 Atlanta Public Schools Crim High School 42.5% 40.0% 40.6% Not Sig. Atlanta Public Schools Douglass High School 70.5% 58.6% 56.1% Decrease Bibb County Northeast High School 73.8% 72.7% 79.2% Not Sig. Bibb County Rutland High School 79.7% 80.2% 65.2% Decrease Bibb County Southwest High School 75.0% 69.6% 69.5% Not Sig. Bibb County William S. Hutchings Career Center 67.3% 75.7% 77.1% Not Sig. Burke County Burke County High School 75.8% 68.5% 60.5% Decrease Chatham County Beach High School 65.5% 62.1% 68.7% Not Sig. Dade County Dade County High School 65.9% 66.2% 63.6% Not Sig. DeKalb County DeKalb County Clarkston High School McNair High School 62.6% 56.8% 65.6% 81.4% 71.8% 56.6% Not Sig. Decrease Henry County Henry County High School 71.1% 63.5% 62.4% Decrease Muscogee County Muscogee County Jordan Vocational High School Spencer High School 58.4% 59.2% 50.0% 53.0% 52.9% 51.0% Not Sig. Not Sig. Peach County Peach County High School 79.4% 75.1% 68.2% Decrease Pulaski County Hawkinsville High School 76.9% 81.0% 74.7% Not Sig. Richmond County Glenn Hills High School 70.6% 69.4% 50.0% Decrease Richmond County Josey High School 56.0% 61.9% 57.9% Not Sig. Richmond County Laney High School 58.9% 62.0% 67.0% Not Sig. Spalding County Griffin High School 72.9% 70.7% 69.2% Not Sig. Confidence interval for proportions change in graduation rate from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal to or above the state average for that year: 75.6% in 2009-2010, 73.7% in 2010-2011, and 74.2% in 2011-2012. Red text indicates a statistically significant decrease in college enrollment from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012. Not Sig. indicates no statistically significant change in college enrollment. 55 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 Table 23: 2011-2012 LAS' College Enrollment Rate School District School Name 20092010 (Yr -1) Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Health and Science 73.3% 20102011 (Yr 0) 72.9% 20112012 (Yr 1) 57.4% Trend Change Yr1 - Yr0 Decrease Atlanta Public Schools Therrell School of Law, Government and Public Policy 66.7% 66.7% 61.0% Not Sig. Ben Hill County Fitzgerald High School 74.2% 72.7% 80.4% Increase Bibb County Central High School 87.7% 78.3% 82.4% Not Sig. Chatham County Groves High School 60.2% 65.1% 55.0% Decrease DeKalb County Towers High School 65.6% 72.1% 56.8% Decrease Dougherty County Albany High School 81.0% 77.9% 83.1% Not Sig. Meriwether County Greenville High School 48.6% 51.6% 41.8% Not Sig. Richmond County Butler High School 60.0% 54.5% 60.6% Not Sig. Confidence interval for proportions change in graduation rate from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012: p<.05 Yellow cells indicate rates that are equal to or above the state average for that year: 75.6% in 2009-2010, 73.7% in 2010-2011, and 74.2% in 2011-2012. Green text indicates a statistically significant increase in college enrollment from 2010 to 2011. Red text indicates a statistically significant decrease in college enrollment from 2010 to 2011. Not Sig. indicates not statistically significant change in college enrollment. 56 | P a g e VI. Conclusion Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 At the end of the 2013-2014 school year, all of Georgia's LAS had completed three years of turnaround reform. The goal of this report is to show descriptive statistics on a range of leading and lagging indicators of performance. The data represent only snapshots of outcomes and should not be interpreted as causal relationships with the LAS interventions. While some schools have made strides in improving student achievement, most schools have fallen short of the grant's expectations for dramatic increases. The majority of schools had either no statistically significant change or a decrease in the percentage of students missing fewer than six days of school during implementation. The same negative effect was seen in student out-of-school suspension rates. More than half of the schools either saw an increase in the percentage of students suspended or had no statistically significant change. On average, the student dropout rate declined less than one percentage point. Although many schools had statistically significant increases in standardized test scores, particularly in high schools, the gap between LAS and the state average narrowed only slightly. In addition, graduation rates have increased in many LAS, but the gap with the state average remained relatively unchanged. 57 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 VII. Appendix A. School Improvement Grant Eligibility Criteria U.S. Department of Education Eligibility Criteria for SIG School Improvement Grant Eligibility Criteria Tier I schools: any Title I school in improvement, corrective action, or restructuring that: (1) is among the lowest-achieving 5% of those schools in the State (or the lowest- achieving five such schools); or (2) is a high school that has a three-year average graduation rate < 60%. Calculations to identify Tier I schools were based on: (1) 2009-10 Title I schools in improvement, corrective action, and restructuring, (2) lack of progress in academic achievement over a two-year period for all students in reading/language arts and math combined Tier II Schools: any secondary school that is eligible for, but does not receive, Title I, Part A funds and (1) is among the lowest-achieving 5% of such secondary schools in the State or the lowest- achieving five such secondary schools); or (2) is a high school that has a three-year average graduation rate <60%. Calculations to identify Tier II schools were based on (1) Proficiency combined with lack of progress over time for all students (2) Proficiency based on combined scores for reading/language arts and math for all students (3) Lowest-achieving schools chosen from lowest to highest proficiency rates stopping at 5% *SIG also defines Tier III eligibility. However, only Tier I and II schools were selected as lowest-achieving schools Source: Georgia Department of Education & Georgia's Race to the Top Application 58 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 VIII. Appendix B. Lowest-Achieving School Non-negotiable List Each Race to the Top Lowest-Achieving School must: Allow a GaDOE school improvement specialist to provide direct supervision over grant implementation and be directly involved in decisions regarding the replacement of staff. Allow the GaDOE to conduct an intensive diagnostic of school needs (GAPSS) at the beginning and at the end of the grant. Participate in all relevant GaDOE and/or US ED professional learning or meetings (Summer Leadership Academy and other training for lowest-achieving schools). Hire at least one full time math coach. Hire at least one full-time graduation coach. Maintain or place a high performing principal who has autonomy over staffing and budgets. Add a minimum of 60 additional hours to the school year for all students. Establish a minimum of 60 minutes per week of common planning time for teachers without reducing time devoted to student instruction. Implement the new Teacher and Leader Effectiveness Systems (TKES and LKES). Implement the Common Core Georgia Performance Standards (CCGPS) and use Georgia's Frameworks in core academic subjects. Implement an assessment plan aligned to CCGPS and use assessment results to inform curriculum, instruction and individual interventions. Adapted from: Georgia Department of Education, "Non-Negotiable Contract Elements and Customized Contract Expectations for School Improvement and Race to the Top (LowestAchieving Schools)," July 1, 2012. 59 | P a g e Turning Around LAS in Georgia Four-Year Quantitative Dashboard 2009/2010 2013/2014 IX. Appendix C. Confidence Interval for Proportions Formula To calculate the statistical significance between the schools indicator average the year before implementation to the most recent school year with available date GOSA used the formula for the 95% confidence interval for proportions retooled to calculate the z score rather than obtaining the actual interval. Final Year % - First Year % z= (First Year % (1 - First Year %))/(Final Year n) If z -1.96, the final year is worse than the first year. If z 1.96, the final year is better than the first year. If -1.96 < z < 1.96, there is no statistical difference. 60 | P a g e