Focus onWe uture i f Georgia} 1970-1985 F, ocus on the Future of Georgia 1970-1985 Edited by William H. Schabacker Russell S. Clark Homer C. Cooper Papers prepared for use by the Advisory Commission on Educational Goals of the State Board of Education Division of Planning, Research and Evaluation Office of Deputy Superintendent of Schools Georgia Department of Education Atlanta, Georgia 30334 1970 Jack P. Nix, State Superintendent of Schools library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 71-630709 Funds to underwrite the preparation and publication of the papers all:d staff support to the Commission were provided from Title III, Publtc Law 89-10, Elementary and Secondary Act of 1965. Preface Georgia's State Board of Education, which is responsible for public GI~omrgeinataAry~sessescmoenndtarPyr,ojaedcutlt(,GaAnPd) vocational in January education, initiated the 1969. GAP is designed to provide statewide measurement of the progress of Georgia's children and youth toward achiev.ement of ~hose qualities necessary to live successfully in the GeorgIa and. Umted States of 1985 and beyond. Information secured from GAP wIll be used to (1) show the measurable impact of educational programs, services, and resources on children and youth; (2) determine the relationship between costs and educational benefits; (3) identify areas of critical educational need; and (4) develop long-range educational planning. To initiate GAP, the State Board of Education appointed eleven distinguished Georgians to an Advisory Commission on Education Goals. The Commission members were selected on the basis of their broad collective experience in many areas of Georgia life and include by occupat~o~ a federal judge, two university p~esidents, a. physician, two industnalIsts, a banker, an attorney, two busmess executIves, and a former president of the Georgia Congress of Parents and Teachers. Even though the Commission members represented varied interests and greatly different outlooks and philosophies, they possessed one common commitment: the desire to assure a superior education for all the children, youth, and adults in the state. The tasks of the Commission were to 1. examine the social, economic, and political life of Georgia; 2. project the probable social, political, and economic conditions of the state through 1985; 3. identify as goals for education the knowledge, skills, and values that will enable the citizen of Georgia to live successfully in the future; 4. suggest the nature of the education system necessary to achieve the desired goals. To assist the Commission with these tasks, highly qualified specialists prepared 19 position papers about Georgia's current status and probable status in 1985 with respect to the social, economic, technological, political, and cultural environment. In addition, critiques of some of the position papers were prepared to provide additional analyses, corrections, or amplification. The authors of the position papers and their critics came from the academic world, business and industry, government, and the professional world at large. They were selected for their demonstrated knowledge about conditions in Georgia today and their qualificatIons to state expert opinion about probable conditions in Georgia for the future. ~e views expressed in the papers and critiques are those of the indiVIdual authors and not necessarily those of the Commission. . ~ecause of widespread interest in the work of the Advisory CommIssIon on Education Goals and the wealth of material related to all facets of life in Georgia contained in the position papers and critiques, 3 these have been compiled and published for general use. It is hoped that after reading the contents of this book the citizens of Georgia will have a greater understanding of Georgia's present and future, of its people and institutions, of its problems and potential. This volume has been made possible by the cooperation and efforts of many people: the authors of the papers and their critics; the staff of the Publications and Information Services Unit of the Georgia Depart. ment of Education; the staff of the Social Science Research Institute and the Center for Continuing Education at The University of Georgia; the staff of the Division of Planning, Research, and Evaluation of the Georgia Department of Education. The individuals deserving special recognition for their contributions include Virginia W. Gerrett of the Social Science Research Institute; Rena K. Griffin, Rebecca H. Harkins, Sarah A. House, Charles E. Knott, Susan C. Kudrak, Sallie P. Newbill, Anne Ray. mond, and M. Eugene Wallace of the Georgia Department of Education. EDITORS William H. Schabacker Associate Director for Research Georgia Department of Education Russell S. Clark Director, Division of Planning, Research and Evaluation Georgia Department of Education Homer C. Cooper Director, Social Science Research Institute University of Georgia NOTE: Authors of some position papers also wrote abstracts or summaries which preface their detailed papers. Use of the GAP symbol indicates the beginning of the detailed papers. 4 ADVISORY COMMISSION ON EDUCATION GOALS Mrs. Leland H. Bagwell Housewife Canton Rufus C. Harris, Juris.D. President Mercer University Macon Honorable Griffin B. Bell Vice Chairman United States Circuit Judge Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit Atlanta Vivian W. Henderson, Ph.D. President Clark College Atlanta Jesse B. Blayton, LL.B.,. C.P.A. J. B. Blayton and Company Atlanta George E. Patterson, Jr. President Liberty National Bank and Trust Company Savannah Maurice M. Egan Executive Vice President Administration Lockheed-Georgia Company Marietta John T. Phillips, Jr. President Lilliston Corporation Albany James L. Goddard, M.D. Vice President - Health Sciences EDP Technology, Inc. Atlanta Jac. II. Rothschild, Chairman President and Treasurer David Rothschild and Company Columbus Stanley P. Krysiak* Professional Personnel and Education Division Manager Lockheed-Georgia Company Marietta Robert M. Wood General Attorney Sears, Roebuck and Company Atlanta "'Served on an interim basis while Mr. Egan was out of the country. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Economy of Georgia . . . . . . Critique: Economy of Georgia. Critique: Economy of Georgia . Industrial Development Trends and Forecasts Critique: Industrial Development Trends and Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . Critique: Industrial Development Trends and Forecasts . . Agriculture in Georgia . . . . . Critique: Agriculture in Georgia Critique: Agriculture in Georgia Automation in Georgia . . . . . Critique: Automation in Georgia Transportation in Georgia . . . . Critique: Transportation in Georgia Critique: Transportation in Georgia Manpower and Employment in Georgia Critique: Manpower and Employment in Georgia . Critique: Manpower and Employment in Georgia Demography of Georgia . The Individual in Georgia . Critique: The Individual III Georgia Critique: The Individual in Georgia Growing Pains: A Look at Social Disorganizations in Georgia's Future Critique: Growing Pains: A Look at Social Disorganization in Georgia's Future Joseph K. Heyman and W. Bethel Minter 9 James L. Green 41 Harold L. Johnson 45 Ross W. Hammond 49 H. Hearn Lumpkin 70 John E. Mock. 73 Fred W. Greer, Jr. 77 Stephen J. Brannen. 106 Thomas T. Irvin. 110 Ellis L. Scott 113 John L. Jones . 136 Richard M. Forbes . 139 Henry A. Fithl . 149 Emory C. Parrish 153 John L. Fulmer 157 Sam Caldwell 182 G. Clint Rodgers . 185 James D. Tarver. 189 Kenneth B. Matheny 221 Fred R. Crawford 237 Fred H. Wright 241 Alpha M. Bond, Jr. and Adrienne M. Bond 245 Genevieve T. Hill . 271 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS - Continued Critique: Growing Pains: A Look at Social Disorganization in Georgia's Future Religion in Georgia , , . . . , Critique: Religion in Georgia Civil Rights in Georgia Critique: Civil Rights in Georgia. Equality of Educational Opportunities for Black Children and Youth in Georgia Structure of Government in Georgia Raymond Payne . 2 Earl D. C. Brewer 2 John E. Sallstron . 3 Vernon E. Jordan, Jr. Donald Hollowell ; Wiley S. Bolden . . Morris W. H. Collins, Jr. The Political Culture of Georgia , . Critique: The Political Culture of Georgia Donald L. Fairchild Anthony M. arum . Perspectives on Health Care: Georgia 1970-1985 Harry B. O'Rear, M.D. Critique: Perspectives on Health Care: Georgia 1970-1985 . P. K. Dixon, Jr., M.D. Critique: Perspectives on Health Care: Georgia 1970-1985 . J. Gordon Barrow, M.D. The Ecology of Georgia . . . . . . Critique: The Ecology of Georgia Robert B. Platt John D. Withers Communications Systems and Mass Media in Georgia . Critique: Communications Systems and Mass Media in Georgia . . . . . . Critique: Communications Systems and Mass Media in Georgia . . . William H. Hale, Jr. Dozier C. Cade Elmo Ellis . . Leisure and Recreation in Georgia . . . Critique: Leisure and Recreation in Georgia Critique: Leisure and Recreation in Georgia John H. Davis. James R. Champlin . Hugh B. Masters and Pauline Masters The Arts in Georgia . . . . . Critique: The Arts in Georgia Critique: The Arts in Georgia George Beattie . . Benno D. Frank. Hubert B. Owens . 8 By Joseph K. Heyman, M.B.A. and W. Bethel Minter, A.B. GEORGIA's economy today looks back on 30 years of outstanding growth, both in absolute terms and relative to the United States' economy. But this growth has been achieved from a low starting point and Georgia's per capita income in 1968 was only 81 percent of the national average. During the past three decades the state's economy has become substantially less dependent on agriculture and much better diversified within both agriculture and manufacturing. The distribution of Georgia's employment by broad industrial classifications is now quite similar to that of the United States, and the national economic outlook is the most important single factor in the outlook for the state's economy. Economy of Georgia Based on our projections for the U.S. economy and assuming that Georgia merely maintains its 1968 share, the state's personal income (about $14 billion in ] 969) by 1985 would rise to $261,1 billion in constant prices and to $37 billion in 1985 prices (assuming 40 percent inflation). But we strongly believe that Georgia will increase its share of U.S. income, and we project 1985 personal income for Georgia of $30 billion in constant prices and $42 billion in 1985 prices. While we expect a continued decline in agriculture's proportion of the state's employment and income, the decline should be more moderate in the future. Even more significant, agriculture is now so much less important to the state that future gains in nonfarm employment will not be heavily diluted by any future declines in farm jobs. We think that Georgia will continue to outgain the nation in manufacturing jobs and income although its margin of superior gain may not be as large as in recent years. Location in the center of the flourishing Southeastern market will benefit Georgia's position in manufac- 9 turing and in other industries serving surrounding states. Georgia has the opportunity to benefit more fully from the under-utilized resources of its Negro population and to revitalize the economies of its small towns and rural counties. There are signs that some progress is being made in these areas. Despite the stated strengths and opportunities, we expect Geo:gia:s economic gains to lift per capita lllcome only to 92Vz percent of the U.S. average by 1985. The state continues to suffer from concentration in low value added and low pay manufacturing industries and from an unfavorable product mix within many individual industries. Georgia is also vulnerable due to its present disproportionate share of income from military-related payrolls. We believe that this study has the following impiications for the state's educational goals. The economy, like the rest of society, will become more complex and capable students must be prepared to cope with problems rather than merely trained in specific skills. Relatively more emphasis should be given to vocational training in industrial skills. Greater emphasis is needed in training for more complicated jobs as vocational oportunities will shift toward higher technology industries and even within the older industries toward more highly skilled jobs. Special attention is neded to prepare Negroes for a greater role in the economy. Increasing emphasis on adult education is a necessity to aid those who were short-changed educationally as children and those who were educated adequately for yesterday but who need re-training and re-educating for the more complicated today and tomorow. Economy of Georgia Review of Broad Economic Changet Over the Past Half Century Georgia has experienced dramatic changes in its economy during the past 50 years. A review and analysis of these changes in some detail would seem to be a prerequisite for any attempt to pro. ject what the state's economy may look like some 15 years in the future. The year 1919, immediately follow. ing World War I, was a year of great prosperity for Georgia-at least as measured both by what had gone before and by what was to follow for a long period ahead. Some 58 percent of all Georgians then lived on farms, about double the national proportion. Only one-fourth of the state's population was then classified as urban, as compared with one-half for the entire United States. Georgia's relative prosperity in 1919 is easy to understand. We were pre dominantly an agricultural state, and cotton, the main source of farm in come, sold at an average of 32 cents a pound, a price not again equaled or exceeded until after World War II. In 1919 Georgians had total personal income of $1.2 billion and a per capita income of $417. These measures are obviously low compared with corresponding 1968 figures of $12.7 billion and $2,781. But in 1919 Georgia's share of total U.S. income was 1.75 percent and in 1968 it was 1.86 percent; it was not until 1965 that Georgia's share of U.S. income was larger than in 1919, Fifty years ago Georgia's per capita in come was 64 percent of the U.S. pel capita; in 1968 it was 81 percent, but il was not until 1943 that the 1919 ratic was surpassed. Let us present one more fact befori we leave 1919. In Georgia in that yea we had almost $3.50 of agricultural in come for every $1.00 in factory pay rolls; nationally in the same year ther were only 85 cents of farm income fa 10 h dollar of factory payrolls. It is not eaC d to 'understand why Georgia's har mY fared relatively poorly during econ~920s with this decade's curious mthl~xtUrbeasoicf boll weevils and other even causes 0 f f arm depressl"on m tmheoremidst of a natl.Onal ' In du stn.a1 boom. Just as 1919 showed the benefits of al- most complete dependence on one com- modity when factors were favorable to ~h~Itsporfondoucdti,vseorsidfoicathtieon1w92h0esn show the the main industry or crop goes sour. Georgia's relative economic slide dur- ing the 1920s is clearly shown by the personal incom~. data. Total wages, farm income, dIvIdends, and all other types of income received by Georgians in 1929 were about one-sixth less than in 1919, while in the same period U.S. income payments had risen by almost one-fourth. Our level of per capita income declined to only one-half the national average. Nationally farm income dropped about two-fifths during this 10year span, but in Georgia farm income was down almost three-fifths because of sharp declines in both the price and output of raw cotton. Factory payrolls in Georgia between 1919 and 1929 rose 15 percent, but even here we did not keep full pace with the national gain of 20 percent. Although the Georgia economic pic- ture on the whole in 1929 was rather bleak, there were beginning to be some faint glimmerings of a better and more balanced economic structure ahead. By 1929 Georgia's income from farming was $1.33 for each dollar of factory payrolls, far less than 10 years earlier. In 1929 COttOIl and cottonseed accounted for 59 percent of the state's total cash receipts from farm marketings, still an extremely high proportion but at least some improvement over the 62 percent proportion of 1924; mean- while tobacco, hogs, and dairy products were beginning to loom larger in the state's total farm income. In the industrial field Georgia was increasing sharp- ly its share of the national output of cotton textiles. But Georgia's share of total U.S. personal income in 1929, at 1.18 percent, was a far cry from the 1.75 percent of 1919. The ravages of the Great Depression were severe in Georgia as elsewhere. With the price of cotton down to six cents and with industrial employment and wages off sharply, conditions were dismal. Georgia was an integral part of what was then described as "the nation's number one economic problem." Despite its unhappy condition, however, Georgia suffered slightly smaller declines from 1929 to 1933 than was true of the nation as a whole. Georgia's share of total U.S. income advanced by 1933 to 1.28 percent and its per capita income climbed to 54 percent of the national average. Agriculture still predominated in 1933, with $1.05 of agricultural income for each $1 of factory payrolls as compared with a national figure of 38 cents for each $1. Happily Georgia's economic progress since the mid 1930s has been truly remarkable. Aided by federal assistance of various types the state's personal income by 1940 exceeded the 1929 level by 3 percent although for the nation as a whole personal income in 1940 was 9 percent short of the 1929 level. Georgia's share of U.S. personal income in 1940 was up to 1.34 percent. In 1940 44 percent of Georgia's population lived on farms and 34 percent was classified as urban, as compared with ratios of 58 percent and 25 percent, respectively, 20 years earlier. In 1940 Georgia's farm income was 92 cents for each dollar of factory payrolls and per capita income was 57 percent of the national average. The 1940s brought further substantial relative gains to Georgia. During World War II we received the stimulus of military payrolls in our extensive training camps and-much more important for the long run-tens of thousands of our workers received industrial training in our shipyards, bomber plant and munitions and component part fac- 11 tories. These experiences gave us and managements of many national concerns better appreciation of our large reservoir of educable workers-workers who had become or were becoming surplus to their normal agricultural pursuits. Whatever the primary causes of our new economic life, the fact is that we gained a self-confidence in our ability to surge forward. At the same time we won the respect and confidence of those in other sections who are constantly seeking profitable ways-and places-to employ capital. The year 1950 is a convenient date for appraising Georgia's relative economic progress during the decade that included the war and early post-war years. Between 1940 and 1950 Georgia's personal income rose 241 percent as compared with a U.S. gain of 190 percent. Our share of the U.S. total increased to 1.58 percent (from 1.34 percent in 1940). In this decade our factory payrolls quadrupled, while nationally they trebled. In 1950 we had only 50 cents of agricultural income for each $1 of factory payrolls. During the 1940s our farm population dropped sharply and in 1950 was only 28 percent of the state's total population. The 1950s was a period of consolidating gains rather than of further significant relative growth. In 1960 Georgia's share of U.S. personal income was 1.63 percent, only slightly above the ratio in 1950. The trend away from the farm continued, however. In 1960 farm popufation (defined more narrowly than in earlier census years) was down to about 10 percent of the state total and farm income was only 25 cents for each $1 of factory payrolls. Georgia's relative growth has accelerated in the 1960s. From 1960 to 1968 personal income increased 96 percent in Georgia and 71 percent in the U.S., and Georgia's share of the national total rose to 1.86 percent (vs. 1.63 percent in 1960). During this eight-year period Georgia bettered national gains in both factory payrolls and agricultural in- come. Currently Georgia's 16 cents ol~ farm income for each dollar of factory payrolls demonstrates further shift frOIli dependence on agriculture and is nO! significantly different from the U.& ratio of 12 cents of farm income fll each dollar of factory payrolls. The truly amazing changes in the broad character of Georgia's econ011lj over the past half-century, described it the foregoing text, are summarized it Table 1, Three central points emerge from tht kaleidoscopic picture of the past 5~ y<:ars presented in the preceding discu~ sion and in Table 1. Georgia's economy has drastic all) lessened its dependence on agricul. ture. Georgia's economy had little reo semblance to that of the U.S. as, whole in 1919 or 1929 or even a\ recently as 1940, but since 194~ Georgia's economy has tended tu look more and more like that 01 the entire nation. Except for the 1920s, when Geor. gia suffered relatively from its abnormal dependence on agriculture, Georgia's economy has consistent ly grown at a faster rate than the economy of the U.S. as a whole. Superior growth rates were espe cially marked during the 1940s and again in the 1960s. A Closer Look at Recent Developments Charts 1 and 2 are helpful in examinin1 broad economic changes over the pas' 30 years. In this analysis we use employ ment data for the years 1939 and 1967 Chart I compares the distribution 0 employment for the U.S. and Georgi for each of these years. The top portio of the chart makes the comparison fc 1939 when there was a marked lack c similarity. Note especially the diffel ences in farm and in manufacturing an mining (mostly manufacturing). I 1939 farmers made up 49 percent ( 12 Geo~;;.fo'snatlotraaltiowoorfk2e7rsp, earclmenots.t double In 1939 the facto n.e Percent and for s and mines accounted for 19 of total almost 2e7mppeIorcyemnet n1.t0 . Itnh G e neaotri.got.na as a whole. . As shown in t.he ?ottom two Circles b . 1967 the distnbutlOn of employment . } broad in4ustrial groups in Georgia ~as quite similar to that in the nation as a whole. The share of total employ- ment accounted for by agriculture was d wn to seven percent for the U.S. and ~hoveenshaanrde a half percent for Georgia. for factories and mines had hanged only slightly for the U.S. and :as 28 percent in 1967; but for Georgia this group had jumped significantly to almost 30 percent of the total. The other broad groups were quite close in 1967 except that service industries were only 101/i percent in Georgia against 14 per- cent for the U.S. Chart 2 compares the percentage changes in employment from 1939 to 1967 of nine broad industrial categories that were combined into five groups in Chart I. For total employment the comparison is unfavorable for Georgia. Our gain for the entire period of 44 percent was well under the national gain of 69 percent. But the reason for this poor showing is made clear by the next pair of bars showing changes in farm employment. The U.S. suffered a drop of 56 percent while Georgia had the amazing decrease of 78 percent. This had an especially adverse effect on Georgia's total because farming was so important to the state back in 1939. In total non-farm employment the picture is entirely different, with Georgia substantially outperforming the nation. Georgia also widely outperformed the nation in six of the eight components of non-farm, was about even on one component (construction), and lagged the national gain only in scrvice industries. Developments within Manufacturing In Table 2 we make possible a closer look at the compositIon of Georgia's manufacturing mix and the relative performance trends over a recent 10-year period, 1957 to 1967. Employment data are again used as the best available source of statistical material for such an analysis. Each of the first four manufacturing industries listed (textile mill products, apparel, lumber, and pulp and paper) accounts for a significantly larger share of total factory employment in Georgia than in the nation. Combined, the four in 1967 made up 52 percent of the Georgia total and only 19 percent of the U.S. total. (It is of interest to note that two of these industries-textiles and lumber-declined in relative importance in Georgia's total factory employment from 55 percent in both 1939 and 1947 to 40 percent in 1957 and to 31 112 percent in 1967.) The four industries combined outperformed U.S. gains 20 percent to six percent in the 10-year period, and all but lumber significantly beat the U .S. performance~ The second group consists of four industries which have about the same relative importance in Georgia as in the nation-food, transportation equipment (mostly autos and aircraft), stone, clay, and glass products, and furniture and fixtures. In the aggregate these four industries make up roughly one-fourth of total factory employment in both Georgia and the U.S. Gains from 1957 to 1967 were again substantially greater in Georgia in total (33 percent vs. three percent) and in all industries but one. The final group is industries which are substantially less important in Georgia than nationally-machinery, metals, printing and publishing, chemicals, and all other. In 1967 this grouping made up 21 percent of the Georgia total and almost 57 percent of the U.S. total. Tenyear gains were much larger in Georgia for the entire group (71 percent vs. 2 I percent) and for each industry within the group. In the 10 years ending in 1967 Georgia's employment gains outstripped the 13 nation's in 11 of the 13 manufacturing groups and in total factory employment Georgia beat the U ,S, gain 32 percent to 13 percent. This was accomplished despite Georgia's above average dependence on industries which nationally have experienced below average growth in recent years, This is demonstrated in the bottom section of Table 2 where we classify industries as between slow growers and fast growers. The national slow growers in 1967 made up 61 percent of Georgia's total and only 44 percent of the US, total. It is possible mathematically to put a cost-tag on this phase of Georgia's adverse product mix, Thus, if all 13 manufacturing industries shown in Table 2 in 1957 had had the same relative share of total in Georgia as in the U.S, and if each Georgia industry had still experienced the same percentage change from 1957 to 1967 as was actually experienced, Georgia would have had a total 10-year gain in manufacturing employment of 57 percent instead of 32 percent Instead of an absolute gain of 106,000 workers the gain would have been 188,000 workers, An extra 82,000 factory workers, with appropriate allowance for secondary effects in trade, service, and other industries other than manufacturing, would likely have meant an increment of about $1 billion in personal income for Georgians in 1967, some nine percent more than the personal income reported for that year. Georgia's product mix in manufacturing is also adverse in other respects. We refer especially to its above average concentration in industries which are below average in pay rates and in value added per employee, In 1967 Georgia's value added by manufacture per employee was $1 1,873, some II percent less than the national average of $13,367, In the same year Georgia's average pay per employee (in manufacturing) was $5,139, some 24 percent less than the national average of $6,798, In 1967 industries accounting for about half of Georgia's total factory employment had. national value addt' per employee ratios equal to or hig~ than the national average for all malll facturing; this represents moderate il provement from 10 years earlier J191% ~mmJ1[111W1WII 'lf1111r1111111flmlll II1II11III11111I11111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111 +274% FINANCE & REAL ESTATE I +120% m11~llllllrllllrllll ,1111111111111111[1111111 1IIIIIIIIlllllllllllllllll!III!llllllllllllllllill 11111I11111111111I1111111 1IIIIlllllllllllllllllir94\ 40 critique: Economy of Georgia By James L. Green, Professor of Economics, College of Business Administration, University of Georgia ECONOMISTS generally assign a priority position to national, regional, and urban development patterns when appraising economic growth processes. Heyman and Minter assign such priority in a quite meticulous demonstration of historical developmental trends. In real terms Georgia's economic growth is pictured as growth in the output of the state's economy. Such growth is measured in terms of output on a total and a per capita or a per worker basis. Heyman and Minter consider past changes that have taken place in the economic and social structure of the state as measured by changes in the composition of the population, the changing product mix, and the dramatic shift of the labor force from agricultural to non-agricultural and industrial employments. The authors focus on Georgia's past performance as compared with the national economy. The authors demonstrate that Georgia has in recent decades been gaining in its economic efficiency and output relative to the national average. This relative gain is demonstrated by data illustrating and comparing total personal income, per capita income, retail trade, bank deposits, and personal savings among other economic indices. These data are used to analyze and reflect shifts that have taken place in the economy of Georgia, e.g., the reversal in rural-urban population ratios, the reversal in agricultural-industrial employment concentrations, the higher levels of earned income (the regional product measure) resulting from gains in economic efficiency, improved productivity, and rising value added per worker, a changing product mix, and, in general, an economic environment more conducive to economic development. Reflecting these changes Georgia has become more economically diversified and less vulnerable to recession in anyone economic sector as occurred when the boll weevil devastated the state's prime source of earned income during the decade of 41 the twenties. Georgia's water, forests, and climate, its varied recreational opportunities and facilities, its central geographic location as a transportation hub, and other advantages including education, which make Georgia a good place in which to work and live, are combining to make Georgia increasingly attractive to entrepreneurs seeking economic opportunities for business development and expansion. Heyman and Minter "confidently expect Georgia's economy to continue to grow faster than the national economy." This is, in effect, the substance of their forecast. They expect that change, in general, will continue and in setting forth quite specific educational and training type goals support the thesis that education provides the prime means to facilitate adjustment to a changing economic environment and to maintain that flexibility necessary to sustain economic growth. On the less optimistic side, the authors note a concentration of employment in low wage, low productivity industries in Georgia comprising 61 percent of its total employment in manufacturing compared with 44 percent for the nation. The relatively less favorable industrial mix poses quite serious prob- lems for Georgia. Even though gains in the regional economy outstrip those of the nation, Georgia is gaining in economic endeavors which are losing in relative efficiency, earning potential, and importance in the national economy. New England, for example, which lost much of its textile industry during the post-war period, is making little or no effort to induce return of the industry. Instead, the region has turned successfully to more dynamic, spaceage industries in which economic productivity, value added, and income earning potential far exceed what was lost when textiles migrated south. As regards income generation in Georgia, Heyman and Minter adopt a straight line arithmetic projection assuming an annual gain of 0.015 percentage point. This assumption is ac- ceptable if the regional-national pat. terns and economic relationships reo main substantially the same. If the $2,500 billion G.N.P. and $2,000 bil. lion personal income projections for the nation are correct, then the pro. jections for the economy of Georgia are within acceptable limits. As a mat. ter of computational comparison, the Joint Economic Committee of the U. S. Congress, using a 4.0 and 4.5 percent annual growth rate for real G.N.P. and a 1.5 percent annual price increase factor, 1966-1975, projects a $1,205 billion (low) to $1,310 bil. lion (high) G.N.P. for 1975. Estimates made by the authors of $2,500 billion for G.N.P. in 1985 w a u I d double the C.E.A. projection in 10 years. Heyman and Minter project that 80 percent of Georgia's economic gains to 1985 will spill over from the performance of the national economy and 20 percent from superior economic efficiency and performance in the economy of Georgia. Based on past trends this seems a sound conclusion. However, the industrial mix implications show Georgia gaining in slow growth, low pay segments of the economy. If this concentration is not diverted, Georgia will tend to fall behind even as the state economy becomes relatively more efficient in less vital economic pursuits. The authors of this paper are to be commended for their analyses of Georgia's development. The "look ahead," however, needs a more precise pinpointing if it is to provide a reliable and helpful guide in formulating a broad set of educational goals. The critical necessity that Georgians discuss the interrelationships of long term goals in this instance, goals for the regional economy and education, stem from two prime factors, the accelerating interdependencies of the national, regional and state economies, and the rapid development of a changing technology which dominates change in work and life styles. These two 42 oints are basic to an economic analy- SPl'sn~ and to consideration of detect the broad them allows outlines of ~hat may be expected to take place in the years ahead to 1985. We can be sure that Georgians will aspire to a better, fuller, richer, more comfortable, and satisfying way of life. We can also be sure that technology will affect work and life styles at an ever accelerating pace. We can predict with confidence that Georgia's eco- nomic environment will be shaped, as in the past, by human aspirations in- teracting with technology. By tying aspirations to economic achievement the discipline of economics is tied to the behavioral sciences. There is no simple economic future but rather, there is a FUTURE in which economic affairs and performance are a part. In my experience it has be- come clear that economic develop- ment cannot be separated in modern political economies from the achieve- ment of specific social objectives. This is as true for the region as It is for the nation and applies to economically advanced as well as to undeveloped regions and nations. Aspirations are reflected in the demands for quality education. Economic development provides ma- terial means for achieving social goals such as raising educational levels; so- cial objectives, in turn, define the need for economic development. In this spectrum of social aspiration, Geor- gians are looking ahead to improved standards and achievements in educa- tion, health, housing, recreational fa- cilities, transportation, and community provided amenities. Expectations in- clude also a lessening of environmental pollution caused by "external dis-econ- omies" of our political economy and income, vocational training assistance to maintain high standards of eco- nomic citizenship, and high levels of participation in economic income gen- erating activities. Beyond social aspira- tions reflected in economic develop- ment are the rights Georgians expect, the right to opportunity, the right to privacy, the right to participate in augmented economic flows, all of which are prone to be elusive if we do not attain and sustain a viable regional economy and a quality education for all. There is general recognition among economists of the crucial role played by technological innovation in economic development. There is a growing disposition to consider organized research and development as an investment in new knowledge. Dissemination of this knowledge through the many facets of the education process is truly an investment in human capital development equivalent in a broad sense to capital investment in physical technology. Many economists equate technical progress to physical innovative technology and to education and system technology. The aspirations of men are apparent in each. Implicit in this paper is recognition that the nature of the economy of Georgia is a reflection of the goods and services Georgia produces and sells to the rest of the world. Export demands generate jobs and income directly and constitute primary income generating activities. Income earned is then spent and respent with a multiplying effect so as to create secondary pro duction and service jobs which create additional income and serve the needs of households and businesses in the region. Critically important in this regard is the capability of the state of Georgia to develop and use its resources, particularly its labor force, effectively to create superior income earning opportunities. In all its nuances this is the complex nerve center of the economic potential of Georgia's economy of 1985. In an environment of uncertainty and accelerating technological change encompassing broad facets of work and life styles as they relate to industrial, product, and social mixes, forecasting and defining specific goals is hazardous. Not only because they may 43 be wrong but also because they may lead us along faulty paths. We tend to endeavor to make happen what we expect to happen. This is a paradox of forecasting. The specific educational goals stated by the authors seem to me to be better considered as a by-product of widespread participation by the educational system in the broader community. Rather than set specific training type goals, it seems that flexibility and efficiency are better assured by a continuing interaction of the educational and economic (business and government) communities. Goals for education broadly defined may be reflected in the manner in which the University System of Georgia is tending in its organization structure. Instruction, research, and service are its primary organizational and functional components. Goals defined in these broad terms would provide flexibility to meet economic educational needs as they arise, assure the maximum return on investment in human capital, provide an established means and media for dissemination of knowledge to all seg. ments of the Georgia society and econ. omy, and provide the back-up support necessary for technological innovation and its implementation through invest. ment flows in economic facilities and endeavors. Interaction of the economic-educa. tion communities seems the most di. rect, if not the only, means by which Georgia can overcome its potentially adverse economic mix and become at. tractive for space age economic de. velopment. Underlying the technologi. cal economic foundation of any viable society is an educational system that emphasizes quality in instruction, in research, and in service. 44 critique: Economy of Georgia By Harold L. Johnson, Professor of Economics, Emory University T HE PAPER on the economy of Geor- gia is a commendable effort, effective in its survey of the past and offering a "best guess" statement of the future by knowledgable observers. To turn this criticism to first things first, the analysis properly links the future development of Georgia to massive investment in educational resources for its black citizens. The writers are correct in stating that the "persistent difference between whites and blacks in education and economic opportunity and attainment" has signiflcantly affected the state's economic development. This conclusion should be underscored by additional information. It has been estimated, for example, by the nation's Council of Economic Advisors that if non-whites possessed the same education as their white fellow citizens and if their talents were fully put to use, the country's GNP would be 3.2 percent above present levels.! This would amount to an increase of approximately 30 billion dollars in finished goods and services for the nation's citizens at today's level of production. In Georgia, where the proportion of blacks is about 28 percent in comparison with the national average of 11 percent, the impact of full equality in education and economic opportunity would be even more relatively significant. Furthermore, it has been estimated by the National Advisory Commission on Civil Disorders that if Negro males worked in the same spectrum of jobs as do their fellow white citizens, an additional 4.8 billion dollars a year would be available to the nation's economy.2 The investment nature of equal educational opportunity is apparent in the calculation of the present value of such a stream of additional earnings. With a seven percent interest rate and a term of 25 years, as an illustration, the present value of 4.8 billion dollars annually would be 55.9 billion dollars. Again, in the case of Georgia where the black proportion of the labor force is larger than that of the nation, the payoffs to 45 the state's economy in additional resources devoted to the education of the disadvantaged would be more significant. The investment nature of these expenditures should be emphasized, for as the writers of the paper note, advances in educational and employment opportunities of the state's black citizens are instrumental to the future economic development of Georgia. It can be argued, in addition, that because of discrimination in education and employment, poor whites tend to be the least able whites. Poor Negroes. on the other hand, include along with many least able, many of average to superior ability. The implications for effective resource development of this likely characteristic of low income blacks is obvious. DoIlars expended in education to help put the Negro poor to work can be expected to have higher payoffs in terms of output to the state's economy than similar flows earmarked for the white poverty-stricken. More detailed information is available which offers additional insight into the prospective economic benefits of adult training and employment programs with low income workers. According to a Department of Health, Education and Welfare study of 12,700 Manpower Development and Training trainees, each doIlar spent in training returned $2.24 per year in gross earnings. The trainees repaid in fuIl the cost of training through federal income taxes in five years.3 Another study of MDTA programs found a benefit-cost ratio for the average trainee between three and six and of at least 11 for the government .through reduced outlays on such items as unemployment insurance and welfare payments.4 An investigation of an On-the-Job Training project with 650 trainees discloses an average net federal benefit cost ratio of 3.28.5 There are, consequently, at least partial and scattered data which indicate that the education, training, and hiring of low income workers, transforming them from tax burdens to tax payers, would be of marked doIlars and cents benefit to the state. Perhaps some brief comment should be made at this point about the need for additional workers. Some commentators though clearly not the writers of th~ paper on the economy of Georgia, ques. tion the strategy of making all citizens ready for employment and contribution to the economic weIlbeing of feIlow citizens. Visions of 20 hour work weeks and of massive unemployment under the joint onslaught of automation and computer science make such job in. creases unlikely, in the judgment of some observers. A quick survey of the agenda of state and national needs, however, in the areas of housing, education, mental health, prisons, recreation, and the arts, not to mention the massive overhauling that confronts many rural and urban areas, indicates a shortage rather than a glut of workers. For an accelerated advance in the economic performance of Georgia, we sorely require the fuIl employment of all of the state's adult citizens who desire to participate in meaningful work. Turning now to another important matter, the writers present an essentiaIly optimistic view of the future for the Georgia economy. Some problems are discussed, but the favorable "demand" side of the future is used as a basis for optimism. The potential for growth as development in the paper rests on the real desires of people to purchase the goods and services produced in the state. The "demand" capability to achieve the targets they set out is surely part of the picture. The likelihood of a severe depression between now and 1985 is smaIl, for example. But, additional "supply" or environmental elements also should be introduced into the analysis. As has already been noted, their discussion implies the necessity of massive thrusts of resources to make the black labor force a fuIl and equal partner in both the production and consuI1)ption of a growing output. The state in order to achieve its potential wiII have to apply massive amounts of resources to the generation of human capital in 46 the Negro commu~it~. ,!,his. inves~ fIlent in resources IS ImplIed III theIr paper but ~oes not directly enter into their analysIs. They do not raise any questions, however, about the likely environmental pollution problems which should accelerate in seriousness between now and 1985. Their optimism about the future is not tempered by a confrontation with the rising social costs that will accompany the increasing industrialization of the state expected by 1985. With a growing demand by the state's citizenry for a cleaner environment and with a stiffening of federal regulations concerning pollution, it is most likely that a rollback from existing levels of atmospheric and water pollution will take place during the coming decades. Business firms and municipalities in the past admittedly have not taken into account the full repercussion on others of their economic activity. But today we can expect improvements in the present levels of pollution, and will require future increases in production to reduce the social costs of pollution. Thus growing proportions of our resources will be directed in this manner -to mecting some "supply" or environmental aspects of the future. It is impossible to say whether Georgia will be more or less environment-minded than the rest of the nation. The safe conclusion thus is to expect that Georgia and the rest of the nation will move in an essential tandem to meet this growing problem. This means that some resources which might have been devoted to production-to the production of pollution, so to speak, will in the future be devoted to its elimination. The social costs of urban agglomeration. a most likely element aecompanying industrialization, also, are not introduced into their forecast of the future. As metropolitan areas eontinue to grow, the congestion of people will require the use of more resources simply to over- come the resistances of urban life. The whole spectrum of urban services can be expected to accelerate into a significant element in resource allocation. The forecast of Georgia's future thus must take into explicit account expanding expenditures for the diminution of environmental pollution and for the continuing urbanization of society. As an education implication of these developments, it seems clear that the social science curriculums at all levels, but particularly high school, should acquaint students with the contemporary and future issues of environmental pollution and urbanization. The remainder of this critic's remarks now relate to relatively unimportant suggestions. The calculations presented on page 10 will not be completely clear to the lay reader, for the numbers of a 60 percent increase in cash income, an increase in price of 175 percent and of production of 155 percent between 1940-1967 do not clearly fall together. It would be better to state that farm cash income in 1967 was 700 percent, or seven times that of 1940. By 1967 the price index was 275, with 1940 as a base of 100. Thus, physical volume of production in 1967 can be estimated to have risen to 255 percent of the 1940 level. The interested reader thus will be able to see that 2.55 2.75 = 7.00 with total farm cash income. The idea of increases of 600 percent, 155 percent, 175 percent is not sufficiently clear with the wording of this paragraph, and more importantly the lay reader will not know how to handle the numbers in this form. Neither adding nor multiplying will give the stated result, while with the procedure outlined above, the situation will be more clear. The preferred procedure, next, is for the use of bar charts rather than pie charts as with Chart 1. The reader will be able to make a more clear distinction between the distributions with bar charts. For a final minor suggestion, the "likely changes" in population, labor force, working hours, and productivity 47 referred to perhaps should be briefly discussed, so that the reader can see how the writers explicitly weighed them to come to a 44.5 percent average annual real growth rate in GNP. Footnotes 1. "Economic Costs of Racial Discrimination in Employment," Council of Economic Advisors, (The Price We Pay), p. 40. 2. Report of the National Advisory Commission on Civil Disorders. 1968, p. 125. 3. "Education and Training-Third Annual Report on Training Activities, Department of Health, Educa_ tion and Welfare, 1965. 4. Borus, Michael E., "The Economic Effectiveness of Retraining the Unemployed," Yale Economic Essays, 1964. 5. Cost Effectiveness Analysis of On-the-Job and Institutional Training Courses," A Report of the Office on Manpower Policy, Evaluation and Research, Department of Labor by Planning Research Corpora- tion, Washington, D. c., 1967. 48 By Ross W. Hammond, Ph.D. I NDUSTRIAL development may be defined in many ways. For the purposes of this paper, industrial development is defined as those activities which relate to manufacturing in Georgia and the activities of organizations to attract new industries and develop new enterprises. Industrial development is important to Georgia because it is a wealth-producing element in the economy. When manufacturing is associated with other wealth-producing activities (e.g., agriculture and mining) and with wealthcirculating enterprises (services, commerce and tourism), a balanced and diversified economy results. Industrial Development Trends and Forecasts Major factors which have a bearing on industrial development potentials in Georgia include market potentials, the labor force available, the transportation complex, and in certain areas, raw material availability. Many other secondary factors may have a bearing on any particular industrial plant location. The manufacturing makeup of industry in Georgia has been strongly influenced by the early establishment of the textile industry. This segment, with the apparel, food, and wood products manufacturers, now employs about 60 percent of the manufacuring labor force in the state. Manufacturing wages in Georgia lag behind the U.S. averages appreciably for almost all industrial segments. High-technology industries are relatively few in Georgia, although the largest single empioyer, Lockheed-Georgia, faUs in this category. In recent years a great many organizations have come into being in Georgia with a total or partial mission 49 of encouraging industrial development. Various state agencies, as well as utilities, banks, railroads, chambers of commerce, and multi-county regional and federal agencies, are joined in this effort. Their activities include promotion, research, development, and technical assistance to existing industry. If present trends continue, the industrial mix in Georgia will not change greatly by 1985. The domination of textiles, apparel, and food products industries will continue. The transportation and paper industries will expand as well. The lumber and wood products and the gum naval stores industries will decline in employment. Per capita income in Georgia will continue to trail the national average by $600 to $700. Basic interrelated problems impeding future manufacturing development relate to the present per capita picture, the need to attract high-technology industries, and the need to develop a better educated and trained labor force. From the viewpoint of organization, there is considerable overlap and duplication of effort on the part of development agencies. The industrial development financing piCtur~ is only average. To overcome these problems, the following observations are made.. (1) A concentrated effort to attract hightechnology industry is essential. (2) Existing and "home-grown" industry must receive support. (3) The cultural and recreational environment must be improved. (4) Georgia's competitive position must be enhanced. In education, the following recommendations are made. (1) Introduce limited vocational training in all high schools. (2) Expand basic education programs for uneducated adults. (3) Survey present and future industrial manpower needs. (4) Expand cooperative programs at secondary school levels. (5) Provide pre-employment training for the unemployed. (6) Establish an experimental education center. ,.' '. .-'" ,.... GEORGIA is one of the more heav. ily industrialized states in the South. east. It has potential for faster than average growth in the years ahead This potential probably will not b~ realized, however, unless the way Georgia is going about industrial de. velopment is modified. What Is Industrial Development? Since words or terms tend to mean dif. ferent things to different people, it is sometimes desirable to define them in the context of their meaning in a particular discussion. Industrial development is one such term which has different meanings to different people. To some, industrial development means the growth of manufacturing. To others, industrial development covers the entire span of business and industrial activity, including such things as commercial activities, banking, finance, agribusiness, mineral production, recreation and tourism, and other income-producing activities. Arbitrarily, but for the purposes of this paper, industrial development will be defined as those activities which relate to manufacturing in Georgia, recognizing that this is a narrower interpretation than is generally used. Industrial development will also be considered to cover the efforts of individuals and organizations to attract new industries to the area and to develop new enterprises of a manufacturing nature. The Rationale for Industrial Development Most of man's activities in the world can be categorized as wealth-producing or as wealth-circulating. Wealth-producing activities are those which take a raw material, process or finish it in some way, and produce a product 50 which has greater value. Agriculture is . ~iuocnh. a process, as is mineral Manufacturing, too, is a producprimary wealth producer. The growing and processing of cotton is an excellent example of this process. Cotton increases in value during the growing and harvesting period. When sold by the farmer as a bale, it may be worth $150, and when manufactured into 500 cotton dress shirts, it may have a mill value of $1,500. Both the agricultural and manufacturing processes have added value to the original raw material. The subsequent steps of wholesaling and retailing the dress shirts affect the final price of the product, but they do not alter or change the product in any way and, hence, do not create wealth. Many activities such as service industries, trade, commerce, and tourism are sources of income, but they are not wealth producers. They tend to circulate money already in the economic system, and in doing so, they redistribute wealth. Generally, if an economy is to be sound, both types of activities are needed and wealth-producing activities must be present. However, there are unusual situations where the economy is dependent upon wealth-circulating activities without a corresponding development of wealth-producing activities. For example, an area established by fiat (Brasilia in Brazil) may exist without the traditional wealth-producing activities-agriculture, mining, or manufacturing. If government support were to be withdrawn, such a community might wither away from lack of an economic base. Another community, because of special historical or locational circumstances, may rely almost entirely on tourism as a sourCe of income for the inhabitants. In such an unbalanced situation, even a shortterm failure of the tourist trade could wreak havoc with the economy. Because it is a wealth producer, manufacturing is much sought after in the Southeast and in Georgia. It can contribute to the economy of an area in terms of new jobs, new income, more retail sales, more bank deposits, additional residents, new homes, and all of the other benefits characteristically associated with industrial expansion. Manufacturing jobs, in turn, support other service, trade, and governmental jobs in the area. The multiplying effect is an important by-product of industrial activity. What Factors Are Important in Industrial Development? A great many factors have a bearing on industrial development in Georgia. Those which are generally considered the most important are markets, labor, transportation, and raw materials. MARKETS. Possibly the single most important factor in the attraction of new industry or the expansion of existing industry is the market potential. For some industries, the demands of people, the ultimate consumers, constitute the yardstick; others are dependent upon the volume of the market for their products among the other industries in their area. If one considers markets in terms of people, then Georgia is well located to serve the growing consumer population in the Southeast, and Atlanta certainly is the focal point of the regional market. Obviously, the market area of interest to different manufacturers varies greatly with the product and its value A heavy, low-value product, SllCll as cement, cannot be tran~p"rted great distances econorni"ally because of freight cost~. lIenee its market area is restri"led in geographical size. Products such as electronic components, on the other hand, can be transported great distances at little cost relative to their intrinsic value, which is high. Industries which are not restricted to location in any specific areas because their products are high in value and low in weight are generally called "footloose industries." 51 LABOR. An increasingly important factor in industrial development is the labor force in the area from which manufacturers have to draw. A characteristic of the economy of the past decade has been a constant demand for additional employees in manufacturing-and in most other aspects of the Georgia economy as well. As a result, severe shortages have developed in various areas of the state. The unemployment rate has fallen to less than two percent on occasion in the Atlanta area. When one considers that the two percent includes those who are virtually unemployable and persons who are "between jobs," this level constitutes virtually full employment. The result in the Atlanta area has been a continuing shortage of workers and a drying up of the traditional labor force of domestics and yard men, those activities which call for little in the way of education and training. Most of those who formerly served in these capacities have now been retrained for other jobs, have found better-paying positions, or have moved out of the area entirely. This shortage is not confined to the Atlanta area alone. Other areas of Georgia have experienced shortages of unskilled, semiskilled, and skilled workers. One interesting aspect of this situation is what has occurred to the traditional pattern of out-migration in Georgia. Since the turn of the century al,d until very recently, although Georgia's PlJp~llation grew numerically, a net out-migration p.xisted. That is, when the natural increase (births minus deaths) was considered, tOr 60 years the state experienced a net logs of people to other areas, even though its population increased. In the period from 1960 to 1965, however, this long-standing pattern changed-a net in-migration of 81,000 persons was registered. This came about because for the first time in this century jobs were available not only for Georgia's increasing population, but also enough jobs were available to pull in new resi. dents from elsewhere. If this trend continues, it presages significant changes for the state in population above and beyond the fore. casts which have been made based On the traditional out-migration trend. The saving grace in this labor-short. age period is that, with few excep_ tions, the demand for workers has been primarily for the unskilled and semi. skilled, rather than the highly skilled. The existing popUlace, plus the in. migration, has been able to produce these types of workers in sufficient quantity to respond to the needs of industry as well as other segments of the economy. In contrast to the overall shortage of labor in the state are the pockets of high unemployment to be found, usually in the urban ghetto areas. Here the problem lies mostly in the fact that the ghetto inhabitants are uneducated and untrained for the available jobs. In a survey of the Model Neighborhood area in Atlanta, it was found that 500 manufacturing jobs were unfilled while unemployment in the area was over 6 percent. There was simply no match between the labor skills available and the job requirements. Unionization is continuing to gain ground in the state as industrialization increases. At present many small Georgia communities refuse to seek industries which are unionized, although others, particularly the larger communities, are less restrictive in this regard. Wage rates in Georgia are considerably below the U.S. average in all but a few manufacturing categories. In 1967. the per capita income for the state was $2,513 compared to a U.S. average of $3,137. This situation has not changed appreciably in the past decades. In 1947, the gap between the U.S. and Georgia per capita income figures was $646 and in 1967 it was $624. 52 r It should be pointed out that the 'wage gap between Georgia and the average and above-average states of the union provides some incentive for industries located in those states to consider a Georgia location. They can expect, in general, lower wage costs in Georgia which can be translated into potential for greater profits. TRANSPORTATION. A third important element in industrial development is the transportation network which exists in Georgia. In this category is included the highway system, the railroad network, the commercial and private air service, and the waterborne transportation system. These are the means by which raw materials and products are brought into and shipped out of the state. They also provide the transportation infra-structure for movements of goods from point to point inside the state. Obviously, the condition and availability of a distribution network is important to any manufacturer concerned with transporting his products to the market. Larger manufacturing plants normally require access to both rail and motor freight services. Some depend entirely on motor truck haulage. This is especially true where the pr0ducts are low in weight and high in value. Air transportation is important to provide both executive travel convenience and air freight where this mode of transport is desirable. Atlanta is the transportation hub of Georgia and of the Southeast. However, it lacks water transportation. Although navigation may develop on the Chattahoochee River, this possibility is many years away. On the other hand, Savannah and Brunswick are important because they are seaports and centers of waterborne commerce. To a lesser extent, bus transportation of small products is important, especially in certain types of replacement parts for machinery and similar items. On a local basis, city bus lines may be important to manufacturers from the viewpoint of providing public transportation for their workers. RAW MATERIALS. Various types of raw materials, such as timber, minerals, and various agricultural products and by-products, may be major factors in the location of industry. It is vital to some industries that plants be near sources of raw materials-such industries are good for the nearby communities since employment is provided for both the production of the raw materials and the processing of the materials in the plants themselves. It should be recognized that Georgia is not one of the "have" states when it comes to minerals. A great variety of minerals is present in the state, and some of these are mined, such as talc, kaolin, and phosphates. But compared to some of the leading states, Georgia's total mineral production is not large. Notwithstanding, where local commercial deposits are available, manufacturing opportunities are present. OTHER FACTORS. There are, of course, many other factors to be considered in industrial development. These are generally deemed secondary in importance to the four mentioned above. However, when a specific plant location is being evaluated and several communities may be under consideration, these secondary factors assume greater weight and may even be critical in the final location decision. These factors include, among others, the following- Availability of industrial sites Availability of existing industrial buildings Infrastructure-power, fuels, gas, water, sewerage, streets Communications Fire and police protection Medical, hospital, and public health facilities Educational and training facilities Hotels, motels, and restaurants 53 Recreational facilities Government and taxes Housing Trade Cultural and religious facilities Business climate Community appearance These factors will not be discussed in detail here, but they are of sufficient importance that information on them should be readily available for response to inquiries from interested industrialists. A Quick Glance Backward F or the first 160 years in the life of our country, manufacturing capacity was largely concentrated in the socalled "Connecticut-Chicago axis," a broad belt running from the New England and mid-Atlantic states through Pennsylvania and Ohio to Illinois. This is where the early centers of population were, the sources of financing, and many of the outlets to foreign markets. The Southeast was largely agrarian in nature, and many of the products grown in Georgia found their way to the North and the East to be processed and finished. The Civil War shattered most of the manufacturing capability which had been developed in the Southeast, and the Reconstruction period was not conducive to revitalizing southern manufacturing. At the end of this period, however, industrial enterprise began to reappear. By the late 19th century, the textile industry was strongly re-established in many parts of Georgia. Railroads had expanded and covered the Southeast in a comprehensive way, making transportation, distribution, and communication a great deal easier. The iron and steel industry was well advanced, notably in Alabama. Food processing was established, and the timber resources were being utilized in various ways. The present-day economic base was being laid. By the early decades of the 20th century, a pronounced tendency to move to the South from the North had occurred in certain industrial segments particularly in the textile industries of New England, which were encOunter. ing difficulties with wage increases profit reductions, and foreign competi~ tion. Industrial growth all over the country suffered during the depression of the 1930's. The induS'trial demands of World War II further stimulated manufacturing growth of the South. east, and the relatively broad base of industry in Georgia was further extended to include the production of wartime aircraft and other military products. The post-World War II period has been one of unprecedented industrial expansion in Georgia in the traditional major manufacturing fields, such as textiles, apparel, wood products, and food processing. In addition, new industries have developed, such as trans. portation equipment, metalworking, and the carpet industry; these have had a measurable impact on the economy and the manufacturing base. Industrial Development in Georgia in the 1960's The present makeup of the manufac- turing industry in Georgia is well known and documented. It is the largo est single employment category in the state, as is shown in Chart 1. The trend of manufacturing employment since 1965, the last year shown on the chart, has consistently been upward. In most other indicators, as well as numbers of workers, manufacturing is the largest industrial segment in Georgia. It is likely to continue so for some time, despite a noticeable slowing down in manufacturing employment growth in the United States and a tendency for this part of the work force to become smaller percentagewise as other seg ments, notably service industries and government, increase. 54 CHART 1 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN GEORGIA BY SELECTED MAJOR INDUSTRIES, 1940-1965 ...,.......,......,..""""T--..,r-,...-.,.......... THOUSANDS 400 _....-...... '"T""..,........,..""""T--..,-r--....-...,....'"T""...,........,..""""T--..,-~ 3001----I---\-+-------t--A------+---------.,f-------l Sources: U. S. Deportment of Labor, Bureau of Lohor Statistics U. 5. Deportment of Agriculture Agricultural data designated by (el from U. S. Census of Population (see text), 55 When one looks at the industries which make up the manufacturing segment of Georgia's economy, some insight can be gained into the problems and opportunities which confront the state. Textiles, apparel, food industries, and wood products together employ almost 60 percent of the manufacturing workers of the state. In 1965, the textile industry accounted for 25.7 percent of the total manufacturing employment, the apparel industry for 15.8 percent, the food industry for 11.6 percent, and wood products for 6.7 percent. These four industries are the traditional mainstays of manufacturing in Georgia. Workers in three of these industries are increasing numerically. The exception is the lumber and wood industry (6.7 percent of total manufacturing employment), where the long-term trend seems to be downward. These industries have been extremely important in the development of Georgia to date and will continue to be important in the foreseeable future. Another important activity is the manufacture of transportation equipment, primarily the production of aircraft and the assembly of automobiles. Paper manufacturing is next in employment size, followed by stone, clay, and glass, fabricated metals, chemicals, printing and publishin,g, machinery, and furniture. In 1965 these industries represented 33 percent of the state's employment. In summary, in 1965, 75 percent of the manufacturing employment in Georgia was concentrated in just six industries: textiles, apparel, food, transportation equipment, lumber and wood, and paper. Manufacturing Wages Chart 2 shows the average wages in the manufacturing industries of Georgia. Four of the first six manufacturing segments in Georgia had average weekly production workers wages which were less than the Georgia average for all manufacturing in 1965. These four - textiles, apparel, food and lumber and wood-accounted fo; 59.8 percent of the total manufactur_ ing employment in the state. The other two elements - transportation equip. ment and paper-had weekly wages higher than both the Georgia and the U.S. average, but they represented less than 16 percent of the total manufac_ turing employment. The high proportion of persons in Georgia working in low-wage industries is very clear and significant to the overall picture. The only industry where Georgia wages were higher than the U.S. average for the industry was in the production of paper. All others fall below the average for U.S. industries. In 1965 this combination of factors resulted in an average weekly wage for manufacturing employees about $25 less than that for the U.S. as a whole. When this is translated into an annual wage differential ($1,300), it becomes obvious why the Georgia per capita income consistently lags behind the U.S. average by an appreciable amount. Level of Sophistication of Georgia Industry In general, relatively few Georgia concerns may be said to fall in the sophisticated, high-technology category. Georgia's largest single company, Lockheed-Georgia, is in this group. The paper mills of Georgia must be placed in this category, and they are among the best-paying manufacturers in the state. In addition, there are a number of smaller companies specializing in sophisticated products or in research and development. On the other hand, the older, more traditional industries in the state such as the textile industry have been making great strides in recent years in modernization and automation. The tufted carpet industry is among the homegrown industries which have developed their own equipment and automated machinery, and this has helped it to secure a large part of the U.S. carpet 56 D D CHART 2 MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES FOR SElECTED INDUSTRIES, GEORGIA AND THE U. S., 1965 , - - - 11.1.'...'1 ~ 1 10'" .-- \!H,:' r- \11\)" lUI r- Il',' .---- \1"':' 1.5-'- ~ f-=- VI -..I ~ ,1-1;\- ~ ~ T~AE~'~:g:1~~'ON LU"'BE~ ~ WOOD \TONE,nAY ~ CLA\\ I ,A8R:(AHD I M~ 1ALI PRINTN(; ~ oBlIltlINC. 1~~:J~::~~~l 1.\', I)V 0" " PROPOR110NO, market (63 percent) in just two decades. This willingness to change long. standing ways of operation manifested by Georgia industry is significant. In fact, recent research into the mobile home industry in Georgia and the wood furniture industry in North Carolina indicates that there is little difference in receptivity to new information and technology in these industries. The premise that an emerging industry like the mobile homes manufacturers would be more receptive to innovation than an established industry like wood furniture has been proven false, at least in this particular instance. Industrial Development Climate What is the industrial development climate in Georgia? How is the effort organized and what is the support for the effort? What types of activities are pursued? Industrial development has long been a recognized activity in the state, but as an organized activity of a great many organizations, it is a comparatively recent one. The years after World War II saw only a few organizations in Georgia mounting a strong effort to attract industry to the state and virtually none interested in developing the home-grown type of industry which is often so beneficial to the economy. By the mid-1950's a few organizations, mainly railroads, utilities, and chambers of commerce, were pursuing vigorous promotional programs. At that time the state effort was relatively weak, and while a number of local groups were organized, they were uneven in their performance, relied mainly on volunteer labor, and few of them had systematically organized programs. Only lip service was paid to the ideas of helping existing industry in the state expand and diversify. In the period between the mid-1950's and the present, a rather remarkable transformation in the industrial development field has occurred in Georgia. It has been marked by a prolifera- tion of agencies dedicated to this ac. tivity, the development of strong and aggressive programs, strong financial support at the state and local levels, and a general upgrading of the levels of sophistication of the industrial de. velopment effort. The state government of Georgia has assumed a much more active role through the activities of the Depart_ ment of Industry and Trade and elements of the University System as well as the demonstration of interest on the part of other state agencies, notably the education and labor de. partments. The Georgia Department of Education has been most helpful in the industrial development efforts, while the Labor Department has provided much information on the manpower resources of the state. In addition to state government activity, a number of private organizations are pursuing industrial development over all or much of the state. This includes the utility companies, notably the Georgia Power Company and the Atlanta Gas Light Company. The Citizens and Southern National Bank and the First National Bank are very active in industrial development, and a number of other banks are interested in the field. Southern Railway System and the Seaboard Coast Line Railroad Company are extremely active over large areas of the state and other railroads have individuals responsible for this activity as well. The Georgia State Chamber of Commerce has an extensive program of industrial development. At the multi-county level, the state is almost completely covered by 18 multi-county area planning and development agencies which include industrial development research activities within their scope of operations. At the community level, there are approximately 50 staffed chambers of commerce which are interested in industrial development. Many communities have established industrial development corporations devoted to at- 58 tracting industry and, in some cases, helping existing industry expand. The office of Economic Opportunity has ongoing programs which involve industrial development, and a number of other federal programs relate in some way to this activity. County and municipal governments are interested and in a few cases have staffed industrial development positions. The Coastal Plains Regional Commission and the Appalachian Regional Commission, both of which operate in Georgia, also have industrial development objectives. The result is that a remarkable network of organization with industrial development activity as part or all of their missions has been developed in the state of Georgia. It is not remarkable, however, that sometimes an overlap of functions and activities occurs as a result of all of this activity. Financial Support The degree of financial support given to these activities in the state is probably in the order of five to seven million dollars per year from both private and public sources. The organizations involved have much greater expenditures in total, but not all of these are directly attributable to industrial development activities. Also, this figure is merely the amount for staff and program support and does not include the large volume of financial support provided through such means as loans and industrial bonds. The types of activities which these agencies pursue are several. For the sake of this discussion, these activities will be classified as promotional, research, developmental, and technical assistance. Promotional Activities Certain organizations focus primarily on dealing with representatives of industries which may have an interest in locating a manufacturing facility in the state. These organizations may also do research, industrial develop- ment advertising, and provide other services in the area of industrial development. They are distinguished from other organizations also performing these activities mainly by their emphasis on the promotional selling of locations in Georgia. Organizations of this type include the Georgia Department of Industry and Trade, the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, various banks, railroads and utilities, and local chambers of commerce and industrial development corporations of various sorts. Research Activities Certain organizations are more heavily oriented to the research end of industrial development. Activities here include the identification of manufacturing opportunities, basic economic studies, resource stUdies, identification of community strengths and weaknesses, identification of industrial sites, and other allied matters which relate more to the environment in which industrial development is operating. The findings of these organizations are obviously of great value to the organizations which concentrate on promotional activities. Organizations of this type include the Industrial Development Division of Georgia Tech, the Coastal Plains Regional Commission, and the various area planning and development commissions. Generally speaking, these agencies are not involved in the promotional selling of Georgia to industry. Management and Technical Assistance A much smaller group of organizations, drawn almost entirely from the higher education institutions of the state, provides management and technical assistance to existing industry. These services might range from new product evaluation and testing and market studies to down-to-earth assistance on operating, expansion, and diversification problems. Organizations of this sort are found in the Engineering Experiment Station 59 at Georgia Tech, the Agricultural Extension Service of the University of Georgia (mainly related to agribusiness), and some of the other institutions around the state. Georgia Industrial Development in 1985 If industrial development proceeds in the future along the same development lines as it has in the past, the industrial mix, dominated by the textile, apparel, and food products industries, is not liable to change much in relation to the total of industrial activity. Under such conditions, the pronounced trend of heavy industralization in the northern half of Georgia will continue. Manufacturing in the southern half of the sate can be expected to grow moderately as it has in the past decade. What is the likelihood that recent industry trends will continue in the future? The increasing pace of technological change indicates that certain changes will occur, new industries will develop, new products will be manufactured and marketed. However, because of the magnitude of existing industry in Georgia and the predominance of six industrial segments, the changes in technology and product mix would have to be of substantial nature to greatly change the existing pattern. Some external force would be needed to alter the pattern. Some new industries would have to come into being and expand rapidly in the years ahead in order to make any appreciable impact on the existing industrial structure. How many new industries are there which can grow to billion-dollar size in the space of a few years, as the tufted carpet industry has done? Very few, if any, in all probability. One can only conclude that, unless some significant changes are made in the manner in which Georgia is going about industrialization, the industrial future of the state looks only moderately rosy and Georgia will lose ground relative to a number of other states which it now surpasses. If the present trends persist, the following situation can be expected to exist in 1985, insofar as the economy is concerned. Per Capita Income If current trends continue, the per cap. ita income of the Georgia resident will increase along the same trend line it has been following since 1930. This would indicate that the per capita income in 1985 will be on the order of $3,250 compared to about $2,500 in 1967. However, recent projections by the staff of the Joint Economic Committee indicate that a greater than usual increase in per capita income can be expected in the years ahead for the nation. Since Georgia lags the U.S. average consistently, it would be expected that the above figures would be conservative and Georgia's per capita income is more likely to be of the magnitude of $4,500 by 1985. This would still trail the U.S. average by $600 to $700, about the same amount as it does at present. Georgia will still be, in effect, a poor state. Industry Composition And Employment The industrial scene will be dominated by the textile, apparel, and food industries because these industries will still find in the state a "wage haven," making operation in Georgia more economical than in many other states. The future of the transportation equipment segment of Georgia industry, fourth in size in 1965, is less clear. It is presumed that the automobile production in the state will increase in proportion to the population or slightly faster, depending on the state of the economy in future years. The aircraft industry, which currently is tied largely to defense contracts, will probably be operating at the same level of production; although many factors can affect this large component of the transportation equipment industry, it is prob- 60 'able that the level may not exceed what it is today. Employment in the transportation equipment industry as a whole may total 70,000 compared with 45,000 at present. This currently is the highest paying industry in Georgia, and it is likely to remain so. The decline in employment for the lumber and wood products industry, which has been in progress for decades, is likely to continue but perhaps at a lesser rate. This industry, which only 18 years ago employed 50,000 people, now employs one-half that number. By 1985, it may well employ only 15,000 people. The activity level may remain high, out automation and changing processes will greatly reduce labor requirements. As a result, this industry will slip from its position of fifth in employment in the state. Unless research into new uses is conducted successfully, such industries as the gum naval stores industry, which earlier employed 30,000 persons and now employs less than 10,000, will disappear altogether by 1985. They will be victims of new and competitive products, failure to seek new markets, and inability to compete in an increasingly difficult labor situation. The paper industry will continue to automate and expand its labor needs as well. A large variety of new paper products can be expected, and employment in this industry may reach 40,000 by 1985. This increase is significant because the paper industry is next fo the highest paying in Georgia, with weekly wages well above the U.S. average for the industry and a great deal higher than the Georgia average weekly manufacturing wage. Fabricated metals, primary metals, chemicals, machinery, and electrical equipment are industries which are present in Georgia but which make up a smaller proportion of the state's manufacturing employment than is true nationwide for each of the industries. All of these industries pay higher weekly wages to employees than the average for all manufacturers in the state. From this viewpoint, they are extremely desirable. These industries offer a number of opportunities which, if taken, can lead to a substantial improvement in the industrial picture in the state. For example, almost half the steel used in the seven southeastern states is produced outside the region, either in other parts of the nation or in foreign countries. The need for more producers of steel in the area is apparent. The best solution appears to be the so-called ministeel plants, which utilize scrap metal in electric furnaces, thus freeing themselves of the old requirements for ore or pig iron and coal. In the fabricated metal fields, at least 28 products have been identified as having sufficient market in the Southeast to justify thte establishment of plants to manufacture these products. Undeveloped Resources Georgia offers a number of relatively undeveloped resources as well as some industry opportunities. To the extent that Georgians take advantage of and exploit these advantages, these actions will affect the industrial picture by 1985. In the area of mineral resources, the phosphates which exist in many locations in south Georgia may have commercial potentials. The possibility of utilizing kaolins for the production of aluminum is very real, and this process depends only on the economics of the competitive situation. The brown ores of south Georgia (and Alabama) may serve as the basis of an iron and steel industry. The greatest potential for mineral production lies in the ocean itself. The increasing marine research efforts now evident in Georgia with the installations at Skidaway and Sapelo Islands and the activity of the Ocean Science Center of the Atlantic offer a real possibility of a technological and industrial breakthrough in this field. The other traditional areas of marine re- 61 sources, which treat the ocean as a source of food, fresh water, or as a transportation element, and the ecology of the coast may well support sizeable activities in the foreseeable future. Allocation of national effort to develop the potentials of the ocean can be expected to grow. On the other hand, it is not now likely that Georgia will play a large role in such sophisticated fields as atomic energy or the space ventures. The labor force of Georgia is one of the main underdeveloped resources of the state. Here is a body of people with, on the average, less schooling than is true in the U. S. and with relatively little industrial training. As a result, the labor force is largely unskilled in nature. In general, it appears to be conscientious, willing to learn, and willing to work hard. The continued industrialization of Georgia depends in a large measure on what the state of Georgia does with its labor force's education and training. Basic Problems Confronting Industrial Development In Georgia There are a number of symptoms of problems and problems themselves which should be recognized when one considers the industrial development of the state of Georgia. While many of these appear to be independent, for the most part they are interrelated. Probably the most evident symptom of the industrial development problem is the per capita income picture. It relates to the traditional types of industries which have developed in Georgia and which are, for the most part, expanding in this environment. It relates to the overall educational picture as well, for there is little hope of attracting a significant segment of highly sophisticated industry to Georgia unless the educational level of the populace changes and improves greatly. It is necessary to look at these symptoms and problems more closely to fully Understand their interrelationships. Per Capita Income The projections for per capita income in 1985 have been previously discussed. These are based on the assumption that certain rates of U. S. development will occur and that Georgia's position reo lative to the U. S. development will not substantially change. That is to say, the magnitude of increase in Georgia will closely parallel the magnitude of change in the national figures by 1985. Such a trend, with the U. S. figures continually leading the Georgia figures by $600 to $700 per person, is based on the continuation of the type of development Georgia has experienced in the past on into the foreseeable future. Is that good enough? Should Georgia be content to be a "have not" state, relatively speaking? Most Georgians will say a resounding "No" to these questions. Attraction of High-technology Industries The most easily identifiable solution to this dilemma is to organize, plan, and implement a program aimed at the attraction of high-technology industries, those which are also high-paying industries, so that the maximum impact will be produced on the per capita income picture. A massive effort will be required to do this and there are many obstacles. It would require a large number of successes in attracting such industries or developing home-grown, perhaps spin-off, industries to have any real effect. There are examples of such developments throughout the country. The complex at Boston, Massachusetts, is based on the educational institutions and the research and development capabilities in the area. Palo Alto, California, also has a successful development of high-technology industries. One of the interesting phenomena attendant to such developments is that a "critical mass" is reached after a cer- 62 tain stage of growth. When a suffiicient number of high-technology industries congregate, employing large numbers of people in the production of technological items, there comes a point at which this grouping starts to produce other organizations, such as spin-otIs, neW product enterprises, etc. At this point the scientific complex becomes regenerative and self-supporting. The need for attracting high-technology industries has long been apparent. No less than three major reports of the Industrial Development Division of Georgia Tech have been devoted to pointing out the need for this etIort. "Blueprint for Progress" (1959), "Industrial Devel.opment in Georgia Since 1947" (1961), and "Industrial Development in Georgia, 1958-1965" (1967) all point to the need of deliberately seeking to build up a structure of highly sophisticated and technically oriented industries in the state. More recently, Battelle Memorial Institute did a study of that portion of south Georgia which falls within the borders of the three-state Coastal Plains Regional Commission. This report was made as a result of the Commission's recognition that high-wage and highgrowth industry is needed if the income gap which exists between the commission area and most parts of the country is to be closed. All of these reports stress the type of industry which needs to be sought. Electrical and nonelectrical machinery and primary and fabricated metals are examples of industries which are poorly represented in the Georgia economy; they are also the types of high-wage industries which should be pursued. Chemicals and transportation equipment are two other industries which also are strong elements in many of the states which have high per capita income. The potential for much greater development of these industries in Georgia exists if the state is willing to make the commitment to attract them and to provide an industrial develop- ment climate which is conducive to their continued growth. It is one thing to say, "Let's try to attract high-technology industries to Georgia." It is quite another thing to do it. The demands of such industries from the environment in which they locate are quite ditIerent from the needs of the industries now existing in Georgia. One of the critical requirements of such industries is the right kind of labor. They require larger proportions of highly educated professional people, of highly trained skilled personnel, and of semiskilled persons. The need for the unskilled is very limited. From the viewpoint of Georgia labor, such an addition to the industrial scene would be largely complementary to the existing industry, which hires a larger proportion of the unskilled and usually teaches them whatever skills are required. High technology, to a greater extent, would seek the better educated and skilled. Unfortunately this class of worker is already in short supply in the state and no great etIorts are being made to produce such a labor force. For example, the largest scientific and engineering institution in the state, Georgia Tech, has an enrollment which is increasing very slowly and many of its graduates are from out of state and leave Georgia on graduation. The demands of present industry for properly trained individuals are so great that it is not unheard of for one company to hire all the graduates of certain training courses in the system of state vocational-technical training schools. It may be argued that high-technology industry will never come to Georgia in any magnitude until the properly trained cadres of labor which it seeks are present in the Georgia economy. It is unreasonable to expect a highly sophisticated industry to locate a plant in the area and bring all of its labor with it. This is too expensive an operation, and. there are many areas of the country where such a mass movement of workers would not be 63 necessary, by virtue of existing available and properly trained workers in those areas. On the other side of the argument, can the state afford to mount a massive educational and training effort, far greater than that being made at present, on the assumption that certain sought after and highly desirable industries will indeed choose Georgia as a location for facilities? The problem is not unlike the chicken or egg question. Which comes first, the hightechnology industry or the skilled labor it needs ... ? The answer is probably neither. There is, in the Atlanta area, a group of companies which fall in the hightechnology category. For the most part they have been attracted to that part of the state by the urban complex which has developed and the particular manpower and technological resources of that area. Some natural growth of this type of industry can be anticipated in Atlanta even if no concerted effort is made to fully develop this potential. If such a campaign is mounted, the potential for a mushrooming scientific complex of industries is great, although it wiII require an effort of considerable magnitude to bring it to fruition. Elsewhere in the state, the potential for the development of high-technology industries is not quite so bright. The paper industry, which falls in this cate gory, tends to locate where fiber reo sources and sufficient water exist, and some expansion of this industry may be expected. The chemical industry is likt>ly to develop along the rivers of the state and at the seaports of Savannah and Brunswick. Petrochemicals may have a future in Georgia, if the oil im port restrictions are lifted and certain free trade zones are permitted by the federal government. But these are complex locational situations tied to specific area resources or actions of governmental agencies, which at best are unpredictable and all too often subject to change. Overall, the prospects of attracting highly sophisticated manufac- turing enterprises are not good, espec. ially in the absence of any state commitment to this end. Even if such a commitment were to be made and the effort implemented successfully the secondary conse. quences of attracting high-paying industry should be recgonized. These are mainly economic in nature. If a large segment of high-wage manufacturing were introduced into the state's economy, inevitably it would affect the existing manufacturing struc. ture. Competition for the better-quali_ fied personnel would be accentuated, putting considerable pressure on the lower-wage segment of industry to be. come involved in an even greater salary and wage spiral than now exists. In migration of people into the state would be accelerated, putting additional strains on services and governmental units, on housing and transportation facilities, and possibly heightening the social and racial pressures which are at work in the environment today. The general upgrading of income levels would increase the demands for consumer goods and services. More sophisticated industrial services would have to be developed to supply the needs of high.technology industries, (e.g., instrument repair and maintenance, specialized metal treating operations, tool and die establishments in greater numbers). The alternative to mounting such a concerted effort to develop high-technology industries is to accept the prem- ise that Georgia is destined to have a second-rate economy in comparison with national standards, that consequently educational levels will remain low, and that future development of the state will merely match or fall be hind that of the nation. Other Problems Relating to Industrial Development In addition to this basic problem of per capita income and the need to attract high-technology industries, there are some organizational and environmental 64 problems in Georgia which are deterrents to accelerated growth of the manufacturing segment. The industrial development agencies of Georgia exhibit some overlapping of effort, and there is a duplication of some research activities. There is no concerted attempt to concentrate on the quality types of industry which are needed for Georgia. This is natural enough in view of the fact that most of these agencies act in response to inquiries from industry and most of those industries which are considering a location in Georgia are not from the high-technology segm.ent of manufac- turing. OVERLAP DUE TO MULTIPLIC- ITY OF AGENCIES. Agencies tend to rely upon the research results of others, expanding and amplifying on them in published form. Little new information is contributed by such efforts, but these activities require a considerable expenditure of manpower and money. With research needed desperately in so many areas where little work has been done, the time and labor required by these duplicative research efforts would be much better applied to innovative research in new fields where a sizeable contribution can be made. FINANCING. The financial picture in Georgia is neither good nor bad, as far as industrial development financing is concerned. The state has at its disposal an average array of financial tools. However, there is nothing daring or innovative which one could expect in a state which realizes that it has a long way to go to catch up with the U. S. indices for industrial development. The conventional sources of financing exist in every state-banks, insurance companies, private investors, etc. Under recent Congressional legislation, all of the states face the same restrictions in revenue bond financing-a $1million tax-exempt maximum or, in certain instances, a $5-million limit over a six-year period. Many states have statewide legislation allowing any community or county to issue such bonds, but not until November 1968 was the Georgia Constitution amended to permit the General Assembly to authorize creation of industrial revenue bond authorities by any county or city. However, 134 such authorities had been created previously by individual local amendments in 121 of the state's 159 counties. Enabling legislation would be required to establish authorities in the remaining 38 counties. Georgia also is not among the 40 states with statewide agencies assisting in industrial plant financing. A least 16 states have established and funded industrial finance authorities. Some of them can make direct loans for industrial development purposes, generally at some percentage of the total project cost and at low interest rates. Other state authorities guarantee mortgages as a primary activity. Some states permit loans to nonprofit local development corporations rather than to the industry directly. As long as Georgia does not have an active statewide development authority, its industrial development tool kit is not complete. Another variation is the statewide business development corporation, which performs the same function as the authority mentioned above. The major difference is in the funding, which comes from financial institutions, such as banks, insurance companies, savings and loan associations, and related private organizations, rather than from state sources. Georgia does not at present utilize this type of financing vehicle, although at least 38 states do. When a state takes steps to provide financial incentives to attract industry, it must decide how far it wishes to go. In the final analysis, it becomes a more basic question-How badly does Georgia want new industry? If the answer is "very badly," then it behooves the state to develop as many financial sources for industrial expansion as it can muster. 65 If Georgia is to be truly competitive in the financial end of industrial development, it must seek to find additional sources of money for industrial development purposes. In any event, it should establish and implement the same types of financing arrangements as its neighboring states with whom it is in direct competition. SUPPORT OF THE STATE AND THE PUBLIC. To do a good job of industrial development in a state reo quires a marshalling of the strengths of all agencies involved in the field. More than this, it requires the support of the state government and the people of the state. The support of the state government is needed to bolster badly needed activities in the field, such as the promotional efforts of the Department of Industry and Trade, the research efforts of the University System units concerned with industrial development, and the broad programs of education and training of the Georgia Department of Education. The Department of Labor needs additional support to enable it to develop better manpower information systems, including the types of labor and skills that are needed as well as those that are available. The support of the people is needed to assist in the passage of legislation helpful to the full economic development of the state's resources, including the manufacturing segment of the economy. Most often this support can be made manifest at election time when amendments to the Georgia Constitution are voted on by the public. The multiplicity of the amendments which appear on the ballot, as well as the diverse subjects covered, makes it almost impossible for the average individual to evaluate the merits of each proposal, unless he is willing to study them. Most of us are not inclined to do so, and frequently worthwhile amendments applicable to the industrial development efforts in the state have been voted down by the electorate because the public was relatively uninformed about the subject. Georgia can ill afford to have its industrial development efforts fail for lack of public support. Nor can those who are promoting such activities do a half-hearted job of informing the public of the importance of striving to increase the quality and quantity of manufacturing in the state. There needs to be a continuing public education program emphasizing the importance of manufacturing as the p rim a r y wealth-producing activity in the state. EDUCAnON AND TRAINING. The one factor which is of overwhelm_ ing importance to the attraction of high-technology industries in the future is an improved and expanded educational and training program. There are many other considerations, but this one fact remains: if Georgia is ever to develop a large segment of sophisticated industry it must somehow provide the trained people that such an activity demands. The basic problem in this area is well-known and documented. Battelle Memorial Institute reports that only 44 percent of the adult population of the Coastal Plains Region had eight or more years of schooling. In many counties in Georgia, the majority of the adult population at the time of the last census had never even entered, much less finished, high school. The dropout problem continues and is in a large measure responsible for the low average years of schooling of the Georgian. It is beyond the capabilities of the individual school or teacher to do anything about this problem except in isolated, individual instances. The solution of this problem has to be massive and effective, and it transcends school district boundaries. To date, this massive effort has not been forthcoming, and it appears problematical that it will materialize. Instead, a number of ameliorating solutions are being tried which tend to help in some minor ways the overall problem without really resolving it. 66 Insofar as industrial development of the state is concerned, the needs are quite defined when it comes to education. There is a great need for adult education, there is a need for training in various skills for high school graduates, and there is a need to anticipate the type of training needed by industry of the sophisticated variety and to produce a body of individuals with these types of training. How much advance training of this sort the state can or is willing to do is a matter of conjecture, but some level of this training must be achieved if only as a token of intent to attract the high-technology industries. Study and analysis can identify the subject areas which probably will be needed in the future. Just the very fact of the existence of such training would probably stimulate the demand for the trainees, but the biggest impact might be the psychological impact such advance training might have on the potential high-technology industries for the area. Summary of Problems and Recommendations Many things can be done to improve the industrial development picture in Georgia. Upgrading of the Quality of Industry Is Vital If one accepts the premise that improvement of the per capita income in Georgia is a prime objective, the corollary also follows-this can best be done by a conscious and coordinated effort to attract highly sophisticated and, hence, high-wage industries. This premise has been advanced many times in the past decade and appears to have a general acceptance in many quarters; it has been consistently advocated by the Industrial Development Division of Georgia Tech over the years. The Coastal Plains Regional Commission recognizes it as a primary objective. Industrial development organizations endorse the concept. The remarks that follow are based on this premise. I. A CONCENTRATED EFFORT TO ATTRACT HIGH-TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY IS ESSENTIAL. A plan to attract sophisticated industry must be devised and implemented. This implies a willingness on the part of all agencies interested in industrial development to assign a first priority to working with high-technology industries without, of course, ignoring other manufacturing opportunities. The differences between this approach and present operations relate mainly to philosophy and the allocation of effort. Rather than responding to inquiries almost entirely, industrial development agencies would have to consciously direct their energies to certain types of industry. 2. POTENTIAL HIGH-TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIES FOR GEORGIA MUST BE IDENTIFIED. Competent agencies must assign part of their resources to the identification of the types of high-technology industries and companies which may have a potential interest in location in the state. This information must be developed and given to promotional industrial development organizations for their use. It must be effectively used or this effort will be wasted. 3. THE CAMPAIGN TO ATTRACT HIGH-TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY MUST BE A LONG-TERM CONTINUING ONE, BUILDING ON THE BASE OF EXISTING INDUSTRY OF THIS TYPE IN GEORGIA. The campaign must include advertising in suitable media, calls on potential manufacturers for Georgia, and efforts to provide a more attractive environment for the type of industry in question. 4. PRESENT INDUSTRY MUST RECEIVE SUPPORT. The development of "home-grown" industry should be encouraged wherever possible, whether it be a new enterprise or the expansion of an. existing high-technol- 67 ogy concern. Spin-offs from. tecbnically oriented operations, industnal or educational, should be encour~ged through the creation of an envIronment or business climate favorable to such development. 5. THE ENVIRONMENT PIC- TURE MUST CHANGE. Everything that can possibly be done should be done. The personnel of high-pay companies generally have a greater than average interest in the cultural, recreational, and educational features of an area. These features obviously must be encouraged to grow with community support. 6. GEORGIA'S COMPETITIVE POSITION MUST BE ENHANCED. It behooves Georgia to have every possible tool in its industrial development tool kit honed to a fine edge. Vehicles such as statewide industrial development authorities or development corporations should be developed to provide additional sources of financing. Tax disadvantages in the treatment of industry which -may exist relative to the treatment accorded to industry by surrounding states should be reviewed and changed to make Georgia more com petitive. The development of research and science oriented industrial parks in certain metropolitan areas should be encouraged. This would act as a lure for scientific and technologically oriented industry. In fact, all changes which might make Georgia more attractive to outside industry should be considered on their merits and, where justified, these changes should be instituted. Improvement of the Education Picture Is a Must Georgia has made tremendous progress in education in recent years, and the situation which exists with regard to average levels of education is undeniably much improved over former years. The advent of the statewide system of vocational-technical training schools has also resulted in great advances in training. Howev"er, as previously mentioned the demands of high-technology indus: try for highly educated and trained. persons require that additional efforts in these areas be made if success is to amount to more than specific and iso. lated location of such concerns. I. THE POSSIBILITY OF INTRO_ DUCING OCCUPATIONAL ORIENTATION AND TRAINING IN ALL HIGH SCHOOLS OF THE STATE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED This was suggested by Dr. Grant Ven~ of the U. S. Office of Health, Educa. tion and Welfare in a position paper for a symposium on automation held this past year in Athens. The level of this training need not be intense, and the vocational-technical schools would still be needed for the more sophiscated training needs. 2. PROGRAMS OF READING, WRITING, AND ARITHMETIC NEED TO BE PROVIDED IN GREATER NUMBERS FOR THAT PROPORTION OF THE ADULT POPULATION WHICH IS BASICALLY UNEDUCATED. The individuals with this training would not fit into the high-technology picture, but they could replace other individuals who might by superior education and training move up to higher-paying jobs. 3. INTENSIFIED SURVEYS OF THE PRESENT AND FUTURE MANPOWER NEEDS OF INDUSTRY SHOULD BE FUNDED AND CARRIED OUT. This needs to be done in terms of numbers of workers needed and the skills required. These surveys currently are being done on a scattered basis in some areas of the ( state, but plans should be made to conduct them on a methodical, comprehensive basis all over Georgia. 4. COOPERATIVE EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS AT THE HIGH SCHOOL AND UNIVERSITY LEVEL SHOULD BE DEVELOPED ~ AND EXPANDED. This combination of education and employment provides the participant with a real insight into 68 the importance of productive work nd puts the participant at ease when ~e begins working full time in the industrial environment after his school ing is completed. 5. PREEMPLOYMENT COURSES FOR THE UNEMPLOYED SHOULD BE EXPANDED. These would be aimed at providing the previously unemployed with some understanding of industrial operations, what is expected from employees of such concerns, how to conduct himself in job interviews, etC. Such courses have been pioneered in Georgia in recent years. One notable example was a course conducted in Carrollton by the Georgia Chamber of Commerce. 6. ESTABLISHMENT OF AN EXPERIMENTAL EDUCATION CENTER SHOULD BE CONSIDERED. A willingness to innovate in education and training might be fostered by establishing a center expressly for the purpose of demonstrating new techniques or equipment or developing new curricula which relate to preparing people for the new industries and jobs of the future. All of the above activities would, of course, require an allocation of presently scarce resources. In addition, aside from the need for education and training with relevance to industrial development, there are many other demands and aspects of the economy which require education and training above and beyond that presently available. These, too, impose their sets of demands on the resources available to the state for education. Compounding the situation are the continually escalating numbers of students who are entitled to their education and training opportunities. The allocation of resources is one of the most difficult decisions for education administrators. Industrial development is the greatest single wealth producer in Georgia, however, and to safeguard this economic essential, a large part of the state's educational and training resources must be directed to- ward this end. Ross W. Hammond is chief of the Industrial Development Division, Engineering Experiment Station, Georgia Institute of Technology. Before moving into this position in 1965, Mr. Hammond was a research engineer for Georgia Tech and prior to that, industrial manager of the Lubbock, Texas, Chamber of Commerce. He received his M.S.I.E. from the University of Texas. Mr. Hammond served. as Executive Director of the American Institute of Industrial Engineers for 17 months and as national president in 1966-67. His present responsibilities include administration of the overall program of the Industrial Development Division. He is currently involved in all phases of area development activity including industrial, community, and agricultural development, industrial engineering, management engineering, and economic research. 69 critique: Industrial Development Trends and Forecasts By H. Hearn Lumpkin, Assistant Manager, Industrial Development Division, Georgia Power Company F ROM my experiences in the field of industrial development, I would agree with the basic conclusions of the writer and congratulate him on a thought provoking and honestly evaluated treatise. It is a real contribution to the field of industrial development. However, there are a few points which could be em. phasized and enlarged. Reasons Why Industry Locates All factors enumerated by Mr. Hammond are valid. It could be stressed that, basically, industry locates where it can make the most money. Markets, availability of raw materials, and distribution figure prominently in the profit picture. To this must be added wage rates, availability of labor, productivity, and attitude toward organization. Perhaps of greater significance than can usually be attributed are governmental image, laws not unfavorable to industry, and stable officials who are industry oriented. Industry also locates because of service industries in the area, or because it may render service to existing industry. This is illustrated in Georgia by the carpet industry in the Dalton area. Education From my 25 years experience in industrial development and ten years in school administration, I believe the following general plan of technical education is worth consideration. Industrial arts in all junior high schools as an exploratory experience in the several facets of the trades A guidance program by counselors with a background in both industry and education - The fallacy of the present setup is that the counselor is strongly academically oriented and places too much emphasis on college attendance for all those with high scholastic records A cooperative program during the junior and senior years with the area vocational and technical 70 schools to give trammg to those pupilS best adapted to a particular skill A sales program in the high schools to make vocational training more appealing and to give greater status to trades - Attending college has been overemphasized by academically trained teachers and administrators. The old "lint-head" image of the factory worker needs to be replaced with the knowledge that satisfaction comes from using each individual talent to the maximum. Labor Shortage This is, perhaps, irrelevant in Mr. Hammond's paper as this is a temporary problem and can change from area to area and from time to time. Raw Materials Perhaps it is well to add to the list of raw materials the large deposits of silica in Georgia. For the manufacture of high quality glass, Georgia silica is high in iron content. In the future, economc measures may be developed to separate this iron content. Movement of Textiles from New England There may be a lesson to be learned from the movement of textiles from the New England states in order that we may avoid the same mistakes. Over the years, I have talked with manufacturers from New England, and these are the reasons given for leaving that area. Industry was under one family's control too long. The members of the family ran out of the original talent. Industry was taken for granted. The community lacked awareness of the problems. Plants did not modernize. The burden of taxation was too great. Mills and equipment were obso lete. The local citizens were apathetic. Low wage rates in the South en- ticed industry. Unions become over-demanding. Wood Products Although employment is decreasing in the wood products field because of automation, there is a great deal of progress in development of new products. There is a surge of interest now in plants for new wood products. Mobile Homes Today there are more than seventy mobile home and related plants in Georgia. These employ some 6,000 people-principally men-and will produce more than 25,000 homes in 1969. Modular homes is the next most promising and logical step in this field. Industrial Promotional Orga nizations There is need for a greater cooperative effort among the many private and public agencies in the state. A professional organization, the Georgia Industrial Developers Association, is striving toward this goal. There is too much overlapping of activities - particularly by the universities, and by state, federal, and other governmental agencies. Something should be done to study and remedy this situation. Other states with more coordination are whipping us to death on competitive prospects. Research Center A definite need exists for an intelligently planneq research center such as the North Carolina Research Triangle. An embryonic attempt has been started by Athens Area Chamber of Commerce in cooperation with the extension division. This should be developed more fully and on a systematic plan by and for all Georgia. 71 Industry for South Georgia This is the last frontier for industry. The area should develop much more rapidly. There are many advantages to be accrued by industry's locating in this section of Georgia. Water, so important to industry, abounds below the fall line. Labor is available; sites are topographically desirable; and there exists less labor activity and a cooperative citizenry. Years ago, there were health and climate problems below the fall line. These have been eliminated by air conditioning and public health programs. Setting a Goal It is important and should be re-em_ phasized that developers should approach industrial growth scientifically and analytically. For too long we have chased every rumor and every kind of prospect. Wt< should determine what we have to offer, where we can meet a need or solve a problem. Then all groups should pursue the kind of industry Georgia could advantageously support. This means research and training of professional industrial develop_ ers. 72 10" critique: Industrial Development Trends and Forecasts By John E. Mock, Director, Georgia Science and Technology Commission MR. HAMMOND'S article entitled "Industrial Development Trends and Forecasts" presents a reasonable and sobering evaluation of industrial development in Georgia. His analysis is most reasonable from the point of view that he has extrapolated current trends into the 1980's without attempting to introduce any alternate "future" based on probable (but unpredictable) technological and social changes which will have a major impact on our industrial system. For example, some economists believe that ours is an incipient "postindustrial" society [Rostow's "beyond high mass-consumption society"] in which our industrial system will soon become so productive that all reasonable wants (necessities plus luxuries) will be produced by a limited portion of the potential labor force. These economists regard the problem of the future almost entirely as questions of what to do with leisure time and excess production capacity and how to provide a feeling of satisfaotion and self-realization in the individual now supplied by his daily work. However, to most of us who are barely post-Keynesian in our economic thinking, it is difficult to see the arrival of any such utopia during the next quarter of a century, much less within the timespan of the 1980's. Therefore, Hammond has charted what I consider to be a prudent course for the future. Hammond's article is quite sobering in its prediction that unless drastic action is taken Georgia's per capita income will not only continue to lag be- hind the national average, but may fall even further behind. Based on the fact that the differential between state and national per capita income has remained at approximately $650 over the past two decades, there is certainly no obvious reason to suspect that we will break out of this pattern during the next 15 years. The picture is even bleaker for some geographical areas; e.g., whereas the income gap for the coastal plains regions was $618 in 73 1950, by 1965 it had deteriorated to $977. Hammond makes the point crystal clear that only a determined and major program will help Georgia catch up with the national average-which I think any Georgian would consider to be at least a minimal aspiration. Hammond stresses the fact that improvements will not come easily and cheaply and must be paid for not only in time, money, and labor, but in societal and industrial dislocations and diseconomies occasioned by a rapidly changing situa tion. Assuming that a consensus can be formed in Georgia that the end objective is well worth the effort, then Hammond's blueprint for action offers concrete recommendations as to how the situation can be remedied. One of Hammond's recommendations pertains to the attraction of high technology industry in order to build up Georgia's wage structure. Along this line it is interesting to note that since its inception in 1964, the Georgia Science and Technology Commission has recognized the need to strengthen Georgia's scientific and technical base in order to help attract high technology industry. Thus the Commission created the Ocean Science Center of the Atlantic to bring oceanography to Geor gia, and is currently studying in depth the possibility of establishing a mechanism for bringing biotechnology or some other segment of the rapidly-growing health science industry to Georgia. As Hammond points out so cogently: "The most easily identifiable solution to this [low per capita income] dilemma is to organize, plan, and implement a program aimed at the attraction of high-technology industries, those which are also high-paying industries, so that the maximum impact will be produced on the per capita income picture." This agrees with the position taken by the Commission in initiating an internal study several months ago (a) to identify those factors having an important role in creating or attracting hightechnology industry, and (b) to determine in what way the state could best use its limited resources to promote desirable activities. To date, the Commission has identified the follow_ ing factors as being significant. The technical knowledge which makes new technology possible A community climate which is receptive to innovation, change, and growth A political and governmental struc_ ture which encourages new tech- nology Availability of necessary labor and management skills A sufficient supply of risk-taking entrepreneurs Availability of venture capital Effective distribution and marketing systems Good schools, climate, and recreational facilities Adequate low-cost "incubation" facilities Taking one of these factors as an example, viz., financing, it is interesting to note how closely the Commission agrees with Hammond, who states: "The financial picture in Georgia is neither good nor bad, as far as industrial development financing is concerned. The state has at its disposal an average array of financial tools. However, there is nothing daring or innovating which one could expect in a state which real'zes that it has a long way to go to catch up with the U. S. indices for industrial development." The Commission, in its July report of the High Technology Industry Committee, also stressed the need for more innovative ways of financing the crea tion of new high-technology industries. In follow-up action, it hopes to make an impact in this area. Important as the growth of high technology industry may be-and we must face up to the fact that it is defi- nitely a long-term endeavor-it should not be overlooked that a more immediate solution to many of the ills (unemployment and underemployment) suf. fered by many small towns and rural communities in Georgia may lie in 74 ttraction of relatively low-paying, :abor intensive industries. Nevertheless, ~'nf the the long run if Georgia is low-income trap in to get which out the entire South finds itself, it must look to better-paying high-technology industry as a partial solution. To implement the programs dis- cussed above and described in greater detail in Hammond's article, a definite increase in the level of education in Georgia will be required. High-tech- nology industry will require more scientists and engineers, more techni- cians, and more skilled labor. This need will prove a continuing challenge to our educational system to provide moti- vation and ever higher levels of educa- tion to students from preschool grades through college level, to and including continuing adult education and vocational courses. The education problem will not be solved easily nor cheaply; nevertheless it must be done, for Georgia's future rests heavily on our success in significantly upgrading the education of the next generattion. In summary let me say that Mr. Hammond has written a very competent, thought-provoking article which will be important to anyone interested in the economic development of Georgia. The article is sobering. Mr. Hammond "tells it like it is". But he offers possible solutions to Georgia's industrial development problems-solutions which pose a challenge to each of us. The economic future of Georgia de pends upon our reaction to this challenge. 75 76 By Fred W. Greer, M.A. AGRICULTURE is a broad subject. This giant has made change faster than any industry I know. Change will continue to be the keyword because technology is increasing at a rapid rate. I foresee somewhat limited expansion in Georgia's agronimic crop resources. Our greatest expansion areas are in livestock and poultry. Good possibilities lie ahead for beef and swine. But operation and management of these systems in 1985 will be quite different from today's operation and management systems. Broilers and commercial layers will continue to be leaders of farm income in Georgia. Expansion in these areas will continue. The outlook for vegetable production is good. The Southeast is one of the fastest growing areas in the country. Also, we have the advantages of location, land availability, and water. Our need is for more food processors. Georgia's forest industry is a great industry. However, it is in real danger due to severe taxation problems. Ad- Agriculture in Georgia justments must be made to prevent crippling this tremendous industry. The need for forest products is increasing. The opportunity to fill this need is Georgia's if we handle the tax situation properly. The greatest potential for agriculture lies in the agribusiness sector. This includes such things as processing, marketing, and distribution. This is the area that multiplies dollars. Agribusiness is the area that means employment. Our energies must be behind the development of these industries. They support and utilize Georgia's farm and forest products. The number of farms will continue to show some decline. But farm units will become larger and more highly capitalized. They will need more technical assistance. More of these units will become incorporated to take ad- 77 vantages of the benefits inherent in this type of agricultural structure. There is a continuing need to keep the general public infor.med of ~gricul ture's importance. It IS essentIal for the public to understand the interrelationship of agriculture and industry. From farms and agribusinesses there will continue to be a great demand for technological innovations, for research, for development both from experiment stations and from the private sector. Services rendered by the Cooperative Extension Service will become increasingly important. There will be no less demand for vocational training at the high school and adult level. Increased emphasis should be placed on youth programs such as 4-H and FFA. Our greatest resource is people. Our investment in youth brings the greatest return. Four-H and FFA are the two programs that apply directly to agribusiness. But these programs have a more far-reaching effect; they also extend to urban youth. Programs that will assure a financially sound climate for agriculture and agribusiness will be very important in the future. In addition to a program of agricultural policy, there will be a stepped up need for agribusiness training, research (both private and from colleges and universities), and Extension Services. + AGRICULTURE has been one of the fastest-moving, technologically ad vanced segments of our entire society. Change will continue to be the key. This is because of many forces, from many directions. They include the ef forts of research, technological innovations, efficiencies, labor.saving de vices, sophisticated uses of capital, and the necessity to survive in a competitive field. There is an urgency about adjusting present methods to meet changes of the future. Changes in the past have been in all phases of production, harvest. ing, processing, and distribution. But these changes will be dwarfed by those we will see by 1985. Technology and its application is increasing at a faster rate. The time lapse between discovery or innovation and commercial applica. tion is decreasing. Our people must understand that agriculture is a fundamental industry. It provides our basic needs. It creates new production and new wealth each year. In short, it is the foundation of our survival. Therefore, we must attempt to recog. nize the changes that are coming and guide them in such a way that this agricultural giant will best serve our needs. A Review I feel it is important to review briefly where we have come from. This will help us realize the speed with which we have reached where we are today. There have been more technological advancements in agriculture within most of our lifetimes than there were in all the history before we were born. It is eye opening to see what has taken place in agriculture during this century. At the beginning of the 1900's the average farmworker in the United States produced enough food and fiber for himself and six other persons. In 1968 he produced enough for himself and 43 others, including five persons living abroad. Table I Gains in farm productivity have been particularly significant in recent decades. From 1900 to 1940 the number of persons supplied by one farmworker gained only 54 percent. The next twenty-year span (1940-1960) saw this percentage more than double. And a 64 percent increase has already occurred during the first seven years of this decade. Helping farmers achieve these im pressive gains are the many workers in 78 the farm input or marketing industries. Every farmworker is now backed up by more than two nonfarm employees located at both ends of the food, fiber and forest products pipeline. The idea of one mule per man and 40 acres is fast disappearing. Subsist. ence agriculture is a thing of the past. Of necessity farms today are on a commercial and very businesslike basis. Agriculture in Georgia has undergone impressive c han g e s, especiaJly over the past 15 to 20 years. Cash farm receipts have fluctuated during this period but have consistently increased. In 1950 total receipts were $375,152,000 compared to $1,118,918,000 in 1968. 1 The 1968 figure was $14,000,000 more than 1967. Expenses have also risen, however. This, along with other factors to be brought out later, has contributed to a decrease in the number of farms and the farm population. Farm population has dropped from 320,000 in 1950 to 139,000 in 1965. This is a decrease of 181,00Q--almost 57 percent. Figures for 1968 would reveal an even smaJler farm population. At the same time the number of farms has faJlen from 198,191 to 83,366. This is a drop of 114,825, or 58 percent. Of course, the number of farms and farmworkers is by no means the standard by which agriculture and its significance should be measured. Today's commercial farmer is operating a much larger unit with a much greater amount of capital. Comparing total cash farm receipts in Georgia with the number of farms aDd farm population, census information reveals some interesting figures. In 1950 the per capita cash receipts were $1,172; in 1965 they were $5,992. In 1950 the average cash receipts per farm were $1,894; in 1965 they were $9,955. These figures reveal some of the growth pattern in Georgia's agriculture. Likewise, there have been important changes in the principal sources of farm income-some steady and some drastic. Crop farm receipts increasd from $233,384,000 in 1950, to $367,423,000 in 1965 to $414,970,000 in 1968. This is a substantial increase, but nothing to compare with the increase in livestock and livestock products. These jumped from $119,928,000 in 1950 to $457,928,000 in 1965 to $623,761,000 in 1968. (Livestock and livestock products presently make up about 60 percent of Georgia's cash farm receipts, compared to about 40 percent for crops). The most sig- nificant change occurred in poultry and poultry products. About 1956, or 13 years ago, poultry replaced cotton as the largest single source of farm in- come in Georgia. In 1950 poultry receipts amounted to $45,022,000, while in 1968 they amounted to $374,174,000. This is an increase of over 83 percent. So the enterprise structure of Georgia's agriculture has undergone a vast shift. Twenty-five years ago more than 75 percent of the state's farm income came from the sale of crops. This compares to less than 40 percent today. Currently, better than 60 percent of the income comes from livestock and livestock products, induding poultry. Investments in farm machinery and equipment have grown rapidly. In addition to greater numbers of machines of all types, there are larger machines, with more power and more specialized equipment. Machinery, equipment and capital have become substitutes for labor. Chemical agriculture is also growing at an accelerated rate. New insecticides, fungicides and herbicides to control crop and livestock pests are becoming not only more important, but more necessary, each day. Custom services are becoming a common part of the Georgia agricultural scene. 79 What Is This Thing "Agriculture" in Georgia? Today's agriculture is the foundation of the most complex economy known to man. Georgia's role is a big one. Agricultural products produced here are enough to rank the state fourteenth in the nation, based on prices received. Agriculture is important because it supplies abundant food to satisfy our exploding population. Equally important, it provides the raw products which keep a huge part of our industrial machine humming. The typical farmer is quite different from his popular image. Today's successful farmer is a good businessman. He is knowledgeable in plant and animal science, economics and engineering. Of necessity, he must be a specialist of many fields. His capital resources are large. And his number is declining. Fewer and fewer of these men are producing more and more, on larger farms. Increased production to meet the needs of the people rests more heavily on fewer people, people who can compete in this day of keen competition, the cost-price squeeze, and advanced technology. Georgians are operating approximately 78,000 individual farms which occupy more than half of the state's land area. It takes an estimated threequarters of a billion dollars invested in farm machinery to operate these farms. Included are more than 90,000 tractors and an increasing amount of accessory equipment and other specialized machinery. Georgia has approximately 2,800 mechanical cotton harvesters. These harvesters cost up to $26,000 each and are another example of high capital requirements. Average figures do not tell a clear story at times, but the average gross income per farm in 1968 in Georgia was $13,152. Our state ranks first in the U.S. in production of broilers, peanuts, naval stores, pulpwood and pecans of improved varieties. It ranks second only to California in egg production. Almost one-fifth of the nation's naval stores and one-fourth of its pecans are pro. duced here. Whether they know it or not, all consumers have a close relationship to the man on the land. For example, reo cently milk deliveries in Chicago were interrupted for just two days, and the supply of milk was nearly exhausted in that city. In some instances milk was sold only to those with a doctor's prescription. But the relationship goes much further than food supplies. Our efficient agriculture relieves manpower and other resources to produce non-food consumer goods and services. Much of modern medicine, science and education is possible because almost 95 percent of our population is released from direct farming activity and is thus available for work in other fields. Interrelationship of Agriculture and Industry This thing called agriculture in Geor gia cannot be isolated and operated seperately from other segments of our state's economy. The interrelationship of agriculture and industry is very necessary, for one greatly depends upon the other. This all comes together into a complex known as agribusiness. Only about one out of 10 Georgians works on a farm. However, agriculture contribution to employment is much greater. The agribusiness complex supplies the farmer and processes his products. In fact, more than 70 percent of the state's industrial jobs depend on farm and forest products. Two-thirds of the typical commercial farm's production costs are for pur. chased items bought from a host of sources away from the farm. Farm families are regular customers for food, clothing, medical care, furniture, appliances, automobiles and the thousands of other consumer goods and services. There is a vital bond between agriculture and industry. Agricultural products must have a place to go after 80 they are produced. Industry utilizes these products and also supplies the needs for farm production. It is not difficult to visualize the complete circle formed in this chain of events linking agriculture and industry. Each depends upon the other. "Agribusiness" is a coined word that covers a big subject. It includes the sum total of all operations involved in the manufacturing and distribution of farm supplies and equipment; the storage, processing and distribution of farm commodities and items made from them, as well as the actual onfarm production operation. Another similar concept of agribusiness is all those steps necessary in servicing, marketing, processing and distributing a product from the time the product is produced on the farm until it reaches the consumer. .At one time, farm production alone was the concept we interpreted as agriculture. This is no longer true. In many cases farmers are following their product and are involved with it at various levels of integration along its route to the consumer. Agribusiness is a reality . . . a giant from which agriculture cannot be segregated. Productivity - A Current Look And a View for 1985 Up to this point I have attempted to prepare an introduction, review the past and to identify or define agriculture. Now let us begin to look at the status of agriculture today and the directions in which it may be moving in 1985. livestock and Poultry Livestock and poultry have become more important income producers to Georgia farmers than have crops. About 1956 or 1957, livestock and poultry for the first time exceeded crops as an income source. A current release by the Georgia Crop Reporting Service indicates that approxi- mately 60 percent of Georgia's cash farm receipts from marketings in 1968 came from livestock and live: stock products, including poultry. This amounted to $623,761,000. Georgia has many natural advantages for livestock and poultry production. The state is the hub of a very rapidly growing area. Its people have pioneered in utilizing the latest technology, especially in the production of poultry and eggs. Georgia also has good natural resources for production of forage for livestock. Much of the land that had been used for crops, and was actually ill suited for that purpose, has been more efficiently converted to livestock production. Of course, capital, labor, controls and many other limiting factors related to crop production have contributed to the expansion of livestock. Let us take a closer look at some of the major livestock and poultry enterprises. Beef Georgia has experienced a definite and strong upturn in cattle numbers in recent years. The climate, providing a long growing season for grasses, is good for beef production. Through research and application of modern beef methods, Georgians have encouraged growth of the cattle industry. We are a leading state in the nation in the beef cattle improvement program. This program is processing data and providing production records on over 10,000 beef cattle at the present time and the number is increasing rapidly. We have jumped from a total of 1,396,000 cattle and calves on farms in 1959 to a total of 1,870,000 as of January 1, 1969. During this same time cash receipts from sales of these animals have risen from $62,099,000 to $92,661,000. The 1968 figure represents 8.9 percent of the total cash farm receipts in Georgia. Of the 10 states with the largest gains in numbers of beef cattle over the past five years, Georgia ranks seventh, with a 27 percent increase. 81 Still, Georgia remains a deficit beef producing area. Its potential for production is limited not so much by physical factors as economic factors. A commercial cow-calf operation returns a low net profit on investment. Investment and land cost, at present prices, are high. Good brood cattle are expensive and other capital investment expenditures are large. Only top mana gers of commercial cow-calf operations can make a reasonable profit. Management is a key factor. I am convinced that feeder calves can be held and fed for additional profit in Georgia. Grain can be shipped into the state at less cost than we can ship feeder calves out of Georgia to other states, have them fed there, slaughtered, and their carcasses shipped back to Georgia. Many good managers in Georgia have been able to make good profits feeding steers and heifers in this state. As in any business, management seems to be the limiting factor. Most Georgians have not had the years of experience in cattle management that some cattlemen in the midwest and far west have had. However, we are learning. The number of cattle in Georgia will continue to increase. Even though it is an enterprise with Ii low profit margin-particularly in beef cow-calf operations-we still have large areas in the Coastal Plains which could be converted to pastures and other forage producing units. In addition, our experiment stations and other research units are continuing to develop efficiencies of production related to breed. ing, better forages, antibiotics, growth stimulants and better performance testing for animals. I foresee three definite situations, any of which could greatly hinder beef cattle operations in Georgia, particular cow-calf units. The first pertains to increased land cost which necessitate a higher return per acre to justify its use for beef cattle production. Secondly, continued increases in ad valorem taxes provide additional problems, and third_ ly, foreign beef imports into this coun_ try. Other areas in the world which are presently increasing cattle numbers are in South America, New Zealand and Australia. With low cost land and labor, these countries are producing beef at a much lower cost than the U.S. If we allow imports of beef into this country without restriction, then there is a possibility that we could not economically afford to produce beef under our present costs. This factor, of course, relates directly to import. export policy of this country. Regardless of these policy situations, I believe land costs will continue to increase. Therefore, our producers will be seeking more efficient, better gaining livstock and increased profit per acre. I believe the cost trend will be such by 1985 that one cow per two acres of land will not be economically feasible. The result is that we will find more confinement and drylot feeding of beef. The acres of land will be used on an intensive basis for production of forages which in turn will be fed to the cattle for more efficient utilization and a higher output of beef on a per acre basis. We will continue to need research to find better ways for this efficient utilization and to develop animals with a high gaining capacity. Our beef cattle numbers will be larger in Georgia by 1985. The number of units will be fewer but larger. And they will be more efficient than those we see today. Georgians will be feeding more steers and heifers for the fed slaughter market than they are feeding today. One of the next major steps will be increased integration in beef cattle industry. We probably will see a significant turn in this direction. Dairying Production and consumption of Grade A milk in Georgia is gradually on an increase, with the increase in population. However, the number of 82 milk producers in Georgia has been decreasing. The remaining dairymen in the state are growing larger and more efficient. Dairying is indeed a specialty field. Not only has herd size increased, but average production per cow has increased as well. The state's 1,200 dairy farmers rep resent an investment of at least $160,- 000,000. In 1959 dairymen in Georgia re- ceived $49,734,000 in cash receipts from dairy prdoucts compared to $64,544,000 in 1968. Agribusiness generated by dairying greatly increases this. Processing ;.md distributing milk and its products provides 15,000 jobs and an annual payroll of $35,000,000 in the state. I am convinced that we will continue to see a decline in the number of dairy farms. However, there will be much larger units than we have ever known before. I foresee large scale operations that will milk in shifts around the clock by 1985. Some of these units will contain from 500 to 1,000 animals in the milking herd. Though we will continue to see milk substitutes take a larger portion of the market, milk will continue to be vital and in demand. Investment capital needed for dairying, already higher than for any other type of farming enterprise, will continue to rise. The dairy industry in recent years has been built on a foundation of production records, probably more so than any other area of agriculture. Selective breeding and production testing have made for efficient production by the dairy animals. By 1985 I expect no more than half the number of dairymen we have today. The capital investment in these businesses will easily double or triple what it is today. Dairying will take this trend because of the high degree of specialty required in animal breeding, management and nutrition. In addition, the industry requires constant supervision and skill. In many cases, alternative uses of the capital are more attractive. I see somewhat of a stabilization within the dairy industry in the not too distant future. Swine Pork production in Georgia is a growing business. Historically, Georgia has not produced top quality hogs. However, this picture is changing rapidly. We have changed from an area where hogs were primarily used as crop gleaners to first class pig parlors and farrowing operations. Efficient management and an adequate supply of grain are essential. Good markets are available in most areas of the state. The competitive position of hog production is naturally of interest. As acreages of allotted crops in Georgia have been reduced, many farmers have sought other enterprises to utilize their labor and land. Swine production is one adjustment opportunity available to farmers in the state. Thus we have seen this industry grow rapidly. Georgia is stilI a deficit pork producing area. Large quantities of pork consumed here are produced in the Midwest and shipped into the state to be slaughtered. The number of hogs decreased slightly from the late 1950's to the middle 1960's but now have begun to increase again. The number of hogs in Georgia in 1959 was 1,728,000. Cash receipts from hogs that year totaled $52,876,000. Numbers in 1968 amounted to over 1,300,000, yet the income of $73,552,000 was much larger. We seem to be in a real era of swine production opportunity in the state. Georgia farmers are studying this husi. ness carefully and are applying the best management skills. Heretofore, much of Georgia's swine production has been secondary to other farming activities. In my opinion, one of the most rapidly changing agricultural businesses in Georgia is swine production. 83 We are seeing quite a number of units being installed across the state and being operated very efficiently. ~ look for hog production to become hIghly specialized. It will also become somewhat of an integrated industry, similar to the level of poultry, by 1985. This does not mean the swine industry will be as large as the poultry industry in income. I do not believe swine will increase to that extent. However, I feel that the swine industry in Georgia will become closely associated with feed and slaughter companies which will assist with financing and management of each operation-from farrowing to slaughter to distributing to retailers. We will see very sophisticated production units. We have already witnessed some of the most advanced research on swine breeding, feeding and management in recent years. This is only the beginning. In summary, the swine industry in Georgia will grow quite rapidly on a very highly specilized, and eventually highly integrated, basis. This should be a growth industry that affords good opportunity for Georgia farmers. It will be highly automated, and, unlike the dairy industry, will afford farmers the opportunity to handle other enterprises and activities related to agri culture. Broilers The story of Georgia's broilers industry is a phenomenon itself. Most of us are aware of the fact that Georgia ranks first in the nation in production of broilers. In fact, Georgia produces almost one-fifth of the nation's supply. The 437,000,000 broilers produced in the state in 1968 would provide every man, woman and child in the United States with more than two broilers each. Broiler production in 1968 was 815 times that of 1935. In terms of income, this industry sold $200,249,000 worth of live birds in 1968. The level of broiler sales has hovered near this point since 1965. The high was $224,_ 903,000 in 1966. The broiler industry provides many jobs through the feed industry, pro. duction of birds, processing, marketing and distribution. The Georgia poultry industry utilizes more than double all the corn production in Georgia-represented by 1,455,000 acres and 58,200,000 bushels produced here in 1968. The broiler industry is highly inte. grated with feed companies and processors handling in most instances the entire production, processing and marketing of these birds. The production of broilers is indeed the most highly integrated agricultural industry in Georgia. Georgia has been a leader in poultry research and development. I see no reason why it should not continue to be in he forefront. I believe the poultry interests in Georgia will become much larger than at present. Disease problems, along with ventilation problems for housing, will be solved so that we will have a half million to one million bird broiler operations in a concentrated area. (These operations will produce from one-half to one million birds per week.) The centers for processing, handling, freezing, shipping, etc., will very likely become a part of some of these larger units. There will be a larger increase in the number of broilers, but at a more even rate than we have seen in the past. The technological advancement and efficiencies of production, such as housing and processing, will probably continue at a rate faster than other agricultural enterprises. This is due to the research that has already been done, plus the many biological advantages that poultry offers for experimental purposes. Difficult as it may seem, I foresee by 1985 advancements and changes in the broiler industry comparable to those we have seen in the past 15 years. There will be significant advancement in the utilization or end product use of 84 the broiler itself, particularly in the form of food products for human con- sumption. Commercial Layers Georgia's commercial egg industry is a relatively new one, but it has grown by leaps and bounds. In this situation, there have been many problems, particularly in areas of marketing. Georgia started in this industry with the latest in technology and equipment. Other areas of the county had obsolete housing and equipment and outmoded production practices. Georgia changed quickly from an importer of salable eggs to one of the major exporters in the country. Our state now ranks second in production in the U.S. Commercial egg production in 1968 accounted for $174,000,000 in cash farm receipts. Georgia's egg farms are increasing in size, efficiency and grade of specialization. An increasing number of these farms exceeds 50,000 hens each. Georgia is geared for production of eggs. It has done much to develop a system of marketing here and has linked with a national system. There is no reason to look for anything other than a continued increase in egg production. However, the rate of increase will be less than we have experienced recently. Operations will become larger and more highly specialized. By 1985 Georgia's egg industry will have increased substantially from what it is today. We will find it a very competi. tive industry with quite a bit more in. tegration-similar to what we find in broilers today. But we will still see a number of independent growers marketing top quality eggs quite competi. tively. The industry will continue to see its ups and downs as far as prices are concerned. However, with larger units coming into being and a sound egg marketing structure existing and growing in its effectiveness, we are likely to see more steadiness or leveling of prices. The commercial egg industry is here to stay. In Georgia it is a growing industry-one which we will not recognize in 1985 in comparison with today. Crops Georgia's crop resources have been a source of livelihood for farmers since the first settlement of this state. And historically, until 1957, crops held the reign of being the main provider of agricultural income. At that point livestock and poultry took the lead. There are many reasons for this. Georgia had many small farms that were inefficient and not suited or adapted for economical production of certain crops. In recent years there have been rapid technological advances in the form of better seeds, agricultural chem- icals, mechanization and larger operating units. These factors all combined to have a definite impact on Georgia's crop economy. In the future, some of Georgia's crops are going to play a lesser role than in the past while others will become more im portant. There is one other important factor which I feel has contributed to crop diversification, and also to an increase in livestock. That is, with certain high fixed costs of land, buildings and equipment, yet with limited restric tions imposed by various crop allotments, our farmers have been forced to find other means and methods on the farm to produce income. This also hase contributed to the increased number of larger farm units. Now let us review the major crop enterprises. Peanuts Commercial peanut production is concentrated in the Southwest Coastal Plains area of Georgia. Production of peanuts has become rapidly mechanized. Harvesting methods have been streamlined. Most peanuts are sold in bulk at harvest time. Under the pea nut acreage program, the total acreage planted in the nation is rigidly con- 85 trolled. Farms have individual allotments based on history of peanut production on that particular farm. Peanuts are considered by farmers to be one of their favorite crops. It is one of their higher income producers. Georgia leads the nation in peanut production, with onethird of the U.S. supply. For several years peanuts have led Georgia's other crops in providing the highest cash receipts. We have seen peanuts more than double in the cash value sold from 1959 to 1968, yet on a smaller acreage. Some 490,000 acres of peanuts in Georgia produced cash to farmers in 1959 of $47,024,000. In 1968 an acreage of somewhat less than 480,000 produced an income of $111,464,000. Georgia has experienced one of the most rapid gains in production, practically doubling the yield per acre in less than 10 years. There are rigid acreage and price control restrictions on peanuts. These are necessary to prevent a surplus, for our potential to produce these nuts is tremendous. I can only see continued tight controls, unless for some reason there is a substantial increase in consumption or usage requiring the need for increased production. I actually foresee more restrictions or reduced allotments for this com modity, simply because production is outstripping the use and consumption of these nuts. In addition, soybeans are having their impact, along with other substitutes, in competition for peanuts. Also, other areas of the country have great potential for production of peanuts. Georgia will probably continue to be a major producer, but with limits as to how far it can go in the future. By 1985 I foresee that Georgia will be very much in the production of peanuts, but with a smaller acreage and yields double what they are today. There will be fewer commercial shellers of peanuts, but it is my hope that more firms that process nuts will be brought into Georgia and the South near the source of supply. The peanut has made many contri butions to mankind in many ways other than as a food product. Through research I hope that more uses can be found for this commodity and that its market potential will be expanded. In summary, I foresee limited expansion in the peanut industry of Georgia by 1985. Tobacco Tobacco has long been known to Georgia farmers in the tobacco belt as being the most important cash crop to be found. Everything else was dropped when tobacco needed tending. For several years it has consistently been a top money crop, second only to cotton at one time and now second only to peanuts. The 1960 value of the Georgia tobacco crop was $77,335,000 compared to the 1968 value of $77,. 372,000. The value of this crop has varied only slightly over the years. Georgia produces a very high quality flue cured tobacco that is much in demand. However, its potential for fu ture expansion is somewhat limited. I foresee no drastic changes for the tobacco situation in Georgia for 1985, except that we will probably have a smaller acreage. This is particularly true if government restrictions are still in effect. We seem to find that tobacco farms, like others, are becoming larger units of operation. The smaller allotment farms are ceasing production due to labor shortage and other restrictions. Cotton So many things could be said about this crop. It has so affected the economy of this state that a short statement here would not adequately cover its true significance. Cotton, Georgia's leading crash crop for many years, has taken a lesser position in recent years. As most of us know, at one time Georgia's well-being practically depended on the cotton economy. There have been many factors to change this picture-mostly for the good. As a result of cotton's decline, we have seen a 86 great diversification in Georgia agriculture and a more healthy agricultural economy. By the same token, the decline of cotton has created other problems, including labor migration and other effects on small rural communities and also on larger cities. We have seen cotton slide in rank to generally fourth and fifth positions as a major cash crop to Georgia farmers. The year 1967 represented the lowest acreage and lowest cash income ($31,833,000) of any time in Georgia's history. As a comparison the decline trended down from 655,000 acres in 1959 valued at $85,907,000 to 395,000 acres valued at $31,833,000 in 1967. In 1968 the figures were slightly higher. Much of the Georgia agricul- tural sector has been "geared out" of cotton production for alternatives such as livestock, poultry, soybeans and corn. These crops have been readily applicable to mechanization. Cotton has been a problem crop to many producers. A breakthrough for efficient cotton producers came when allotments could be transferred from one county to another in the state. This allows for consolidation of allotments and for a farmer to secure an allotment large enough for the high mechanization needed for this crop. In addition, research has made varieties available to Georgia producers that are comparable in fiber qualities to those grown in the western United States. As a result, we have seen tremendous progress in the quality of cotton grown here in Georgia. Heretofore, much of our allotment was in very small acreage scattered over many small farms that were inefficient and uneconomical units. Today many of Georgia's farmers are geared for large acreage and high quality production. They are producing a quality cotton meeting the demands of textile manufacturers. I do not see a major comeback for cotton in Georgia, but I sincerely believe that the top 15 percent of producers in this state will continue pro- duction on an economical basis. Unless legislative measures build larger problems for Georgia cotton producers, I believe that we will still have some top units by 1985. Nevertheless, I believe the number of farms producing cotton will be less than half the number today. Acreage planted will be comparable. This may be a maximum forecast as far as acreage planted is concerned. I cannot foresee bright opportunities, as several other areas of the world are presently outstripping us in cotton prodiiCtion, particularly costwise. In my opinion, the greatest bearing of all will be the response or effect of world supply and export-import balances. I do not believe that legislative measures are going to protect cotton in this country to the extent that it has in the past, and to this extent and degree Georgia cotton producers will be affected. Prices of cotton have opened the door for man-made fibers to fill the need at lower cost. In 1968, cotton had to forfeit its crown as it was removed from its top spot in relation to manmade fibers. Man-made fibers took 52 percent of the total fiber consumption in 1968, with cotton being 43 percent.2 Cotton must very definitely reckon in some manner with man-made fibers in the years ahead if it is to survive. Soybeans Soybeans have been called Georgia's "Cinderella crop" and rightly so. Soybeans have made a storybook stride into the agricultural economy of Georgia in recent years. As late as 1963 Georgia harvested only 106,000 acres of beans representing sales of $4,127,000 to farmers. The year 1968 saw Georgia harvest over 600,000 acres of soybeans returning $21,520,000 to growers. Soybeans have provided a cash crop and alternative for farmers seeking new ways to increase their income. At present there are no acreage restrictions on beans, and expansion has been quite rapid. It has taken up the 87 slack felt by so many from cotton. Much of the credit to this expansion in Georgia should be given to the edu. cational efforts and assistance by county agents and agronomists of the University of Georgia Cooperative Ex tension Service. In addition, our experiment stations have made great strides in developing varieties to meet the particular needs of the areas in which they are grown. Soybeans are very sensitive to soil and light condi tions and varieties must be adapted that will more closely fit the demands of the area in which they are grown. I do not think we can expect expansion to continue as rapidly as it has in Georgia over the last three or four years. We have seen a rapid ex pansion of beans in many other areas throughout the country and have for the first time reached a supply to meet the demand for this commodity. Nevertheless, research has discovered many synthetics and products for which soybeans are used. They can be grown economically and return great yields of protein on a per acre basis. We seem to be on a threshold of additional breakthroughs for their use in synthetics, foods and many other products that will be beneficial to mankind. Unless we have rigid restrictions placed on soybean production, I fore see Georgia making a continued expansion in bean production. Varieties have been adapted that will meet Georgia's needs, and our producers are becom ing educated rapidly as to the specifics required for high yield production. In addition, the market is here. Georgia's need for additional soybean meal for poultry feed alone is enorm ous and will continue to grow. The most modern soybean facility in the world has just been completed in Val dosta and will serve as a marketing facility for handling all soybeans produced in South Georgia and surround ing states. The future looks good and I foresee a very significant expansion in soybean potentials by 1985. Corn Corn has made great progress in Georgia. It has come from a secondary crop position, or one just to provide feed on individual farms, to a major cash crop. Our farmers have approach. ed corn production on a very business. like basis and our better producers are returning per acre yields comparable to those grown in the midwestern states. Farm income from corn sales in Georgia in 1968 amounted to $38,883,000. This was down considerably from the all time high of $52,223,000 in 1967-the best year in Georgia corn history. However, 1968 was a poor year due to drought conditions in many areas of Georgia. Corn yields climbed from an aver age of 27 bushels per acre in 1959 to the aU time high of 52 bushels per acre on a statewide basis in 1967. Over half of Georgia's corn production is used on farms where it is grown. Adding the value on corn used on the farms to that for cash sales places the total value of corn grown in Georgia in excess of $80,000,000 annually.3 Though we have made great strides here, about twoand-ahalf times the total of volume of corn production in Georgia is used in this state annually for poultry feeds alone. In other words, we are a corn deficit producing state. I cannot foresee Georgia in the next 15 years meeting its grain needs. And I cannot believe that we should make an allout effort to do this, as the midwestern area foreseeably will be able to economically produce much more corn than it is presently producing. How ever, our progress is significant here with new varieties, chemicals, mechanization, and irrigation. I can foresee Georgia having the potential to double its corn yields by 1985. We are seeing a great influx of irrigation. In addition, plant breeders are continuing their efforts to develop a corn plant with the potential of producing from 300 to 500 bushels per acre. 88 We have seen quite an increase of farm grain storage units related to corn drying and storing. We will continue to see this for sometime. The cash crop aspect of corn is going to continue upward here in the state. Forages Forage production may seem to be an insignificant aspect of Georgia's fu ture agricultural economy. However, I feel I should point out this segment of farm productivity because it will become significantly more important than it is today. Forages include hay, silage, haylage, green chop and all other roughages that are normally fed to cattle in this state. Georgia is naturally blessed with climate and resources for abundant production of grass and for. age. We have already made great strides in grasses, an example of which is Coastal Bermuda. This grass alone has contributed much to the pasture quality and production in Georgia and also to the hay segment which has allowed for the expansion of the Coastal Bermuda pellet industry. In addition, due to labor shortages and a need for higher returns and more efficiency per acre, silage and haylage have been on the increase. Silo construction has been on a rapid rise in Georgia, and I feel this trend will continue. A review will show that the midwestern area of our country is quite well established in silos and is even continuing this expansion. In comparison, the Southeast and Georgia have really just begun to move in this area. The livestock industry expansion in Georgia is requiring this increase. Dairymen have found that consolidation of units, increasing herd size and the need for more production per cow, high quality silage and haylage have helped to meet these needs. In addition, we are going to see the same trends in beef feeding. Presently, the most economical and profitable way to feed cattle in Georgia (steers and heifers for slaughter) has been silage. Our potential for livestock expansion lies in this area. The contributing factor from increased forage production in Georgia is not going to be direct dollar income from these products but instead as marketed through milk and beef. In my opinion forage production is going to be a major key in continued livestock expansion and the means by which livestock production will be a profitable enterprise for Georgia's economy. Vegetables and Truck Crops Surprisingly to many people, Georgia's truck crop income is quite sub stantial. The 1967 and 1968 crops brought receipts to Georgia farmers of $43,585,000 and $40,224,000 respectively. Many things are in our favor for moving forward in this field. We have in Georgia some of the finest farmers' markets to be found anywhere. In addition, due to location and natural resources, I believe that Georgia will be able to attract major food companies into its southern region. These will provide an increased market for farmers. We have made some gains in contract farming of vegetables, but most is still done on a small unit, individual basis. Peas, beans and turnip greens have made significant increases in recent years. These items are mechanically handled throughout the production process. To a great extent, vegetable produc. tion in Georgia is an untapped enter prise that can become a better income producer for Georgia farmers in the future. Georgia should make every effort to attract food processors. Vegetable production would be handled by contractual arrangements between com panies and growers. I feel this is the best approach to take. If we can make some breakthroughs with companies, a tremendous potential for our agricul. tural economy lies in the area of vegetable production. A change comparable to that which has taken place with soy- 89 beans could be made with vegetables in this state by 1985. Forest Resources In reviewing the nineteen areas of study which the Commission on Educational Goals will review, I noticed that forestry was not included as a separate economic area. Forestry is of such extreme importance to the state's present and future economy that I am includ ing it as a major topic. Its significance is greater than most Georgians begin to realize. It has an important bearing in that commercial farm acreages usua Iy contain a portion of timberland and is the lifeblood of production income to many private individual owners as well as corporations. A recent report of the Georgia Forestry Commission showed approximately 66,000 jobs in Georgia's timber industry. These workers earned wages and salaries totaling almost $300 million. There are more than 900 forest industries in the state, and the economic value generated by the timber crop and its processing and utilization functions amounts to well over one billion dollars annually. During 1967 (latest figure available) Georgia forest landowners sold almost 1.2 billion board feet of sawtimber and approximately 5112 million cords of pulpwood. In addition, there were other valuable forest crops harvested such as pine gum, crossties, posts and stumpwood. This is the raw material that provides 66,000 jobs, and these are the raw materials upon which an industry worth more than one billion dollars a year to Georgia's economy is based. Tax Dangers Unreasonable taxes can kill the state's second largest industry. Georgia is seeking new industry on the one hand while greatly hindering, if not destroying, her second largest industry. The timber industry now adds more to the economy of the state each year than any other industry except that of tex. tile manufacturing. Yet the resource which supports this industry, growing trees, is in grave danger of becoming depleted through unreasonable ad valorem taxes. Let us not be misled--Georgia is headed for a one-crop timber economy unless the trends in ad valorem taxation on timber and timberland are changed. That one crop is, of course, pulpwood. The Georgia law states that standing timber shall be taxed separate from, and in addition to, the land upon which it grows. As the timber increases in size, the tax rate is increased. Under this system of taxation, growth which occurs the first year of the timber's life is taxed 29 times if the stand is har- vested at 30 years of age. Growth put on the second year is taxed 28 times and so on through the rotation. All other agricultural crops are exempt from ad valorem taxes. Why not treat timber as an agricultural crop? It is the one crop that has to be kept and nurtured for many years before any income can be realized. The sawtimber industry is doomed unless some more equitable system of taxation can be worked out for timber and timberland. The promising new southern pine plywood industry will never reach its great potential in Georgia's economy as long as we have unreasonable tax rates on growing timber. The management program on Georgia's timberland is toward shorter and shorter rotations, meaning smaller and smaller trees-and in the end the onecrop timber economy-pulpwood. A determined effort was made in the 1966 General Assembly of Georgia to get a more equitable system of taxing timber and timberland. Senate Resolution 15 was soundly defeated in the House of Representatives. Briefly, the substance of this bill provided for the taxing of timberland according to its productive capacity. Good land would be taxed at a higher rate than poor land. Surely the bill, had it passed, 90 , would have stabilized the tax situation on timber and timberland and thus would have been helpful to the timber grower as well as to the county governments. Land Ownership Pattern Georgia has a good land ownership pattern. There are almost 200,000 owners. This means that timber is available in all sections of the state and can be used to attract new wood using industries. A reasonable tax program will help maintain a large number of owners and help maintain a varied and thriving timber economy. Time Is Money The growing of a timber crop takes time. Interest on the timber growing investments is often quite burdensome. Many Georgia counties are already taxing timberland at more than one dollar per acre annually. A landowner who pays $1.00 per acre per year for a 30-year crop of timber will pay the local government $30. However, if this cost is compounded annually for the 30-year period at 6 percent, the cost to the farmer is not $30 but $79.06. If an acre of land is taxed at $1.00 an acre for 40 years and compounded at 6 percent the tax costs amount to $154.80 per acre. With pulpwood valued at $7.00 per cord, more than 22 cords of wood per acre must be written off for the payment of ad valorem taxes alone. Value to Urban as Well as Rural When a Georgia farmer or other timberland owner sells one dollar's worth of standing timber, $12.10 is added to the community and area through the harvesting, processing and utilization functions. Much of this value shows up in our cities in the form of jobs for urban residents. In Savannah, for instance, there are almost 7,000 people working in forest industries. The payroll is almost $45 million. This wood is not grown on Bay, East Broad, West Broad, Barnard or Broughton. Most of it is grown on some farm in a rural county. In Rome there are more than 1,700 workers in forest industry jobs. Almost 600,000 cords of wood are needed for the city's workers, but it is not grown in Rome. In Augusta timber products generate an industry valued at $23 million annually. The wood is supplied by their rural neighbors. The timber industry is a matter of teamwork between rural and urban forces. It should be quite evident that trees are much more important as an economic resource than as a tax raising source. Georgia, according to the reports of the U.S. Forest Service, is now growing more timber each year than any state in the country except the State of Washington. Such a record was not easy to attain. It required much time, effort and expense on the part of thou sands upon thousands of Georgia landowners. If this timber resource is wisely managed, wisely harvested and wisely taxed, Georgia's annual billion dollar timber industry can grow to a two billion dollar industry. After Production - Agribusiness, The Important link Earlier I mentioned the term agribusiness and made slight reference to its meaning and significance. At this point I will attempt to go a little deeper into this subject. Agribusiness represents a phase of business primarily concerned with taking the raw product or commodity through its route of processing, distribution, marketing, etc. There are forty-three different types of agricultural industries in Georgia representing over five thousand different firms. It is this area that commands the largest work force related to the agricultural segment of our economy. It is also the area which requires great sources of capital. It is truly the dollar multiplier for agricultural products. Producing over 4.4 billion dollars in 91 goods and services each year, Georgia's agribusiness complex accounts for almost two-thirds of the state's economic income. 4 The backbone of this giant operation is Georgia's more than 1.1 billion dollars worth of farm products. To produce this output farmers spend more than 700 million dollars on farm supplies and other production expenses. This makes them very good customers of industry. Farm Service and Suppliers The Georgia farm supply industry benefits tremendously by furnishing the goods and services necessary in today's modern agriculture. In 1967 Georgia farmers spent $252,000,000 for feed. This was their largest single expense. Seed and livestock purchases accounted for another $63,000,000 and fertilizer and lime sales added up to over $82,000,000. Repairs and operation of capital items amounted to $96.5 million. In addition, $73,000,000 was spent on miscellaneous operating supplies. Even more importantly, cash outlays for capital items exceeded $119,000,000, thus providing important sales for many small town trading centers as well as urban distribution outlets.5 Farm services and supplies are going to playa more important role in the years ahead through custom services, technical know-how, etc. Agricultural Processing and Marketing Many functions relating to the grading, processing, packaging, and selling of farm products have gradually moved from the farm to town. Many produc. tion operations which the farmer once did for himself, such as fertilizer spreading and crop harvesting and drying, are now being performed by alert agribusiness firms on a custom basis. These services benefit both town and country. They provide employment for the people who live in the cities and towns. They make servites available to an individual farmer who could not af- ford the necessary capital investment requirements needed. There has been quite a shift in this direction in very recent years. We are going to see a strong trend in this direction over the next fifteen-year period. The processing of agricultural prod. ucts has for a long time been one of Georgia's greatest needs. We are great producers of raw materials but in many instances we ship them out of state to be processed. Then the finished prod. uct is shipped back here. Thanks to many sources and agencies, this trend is being turned around. We are bring. ing in more industry for processing these products here in our state. Still, we are deficit in this respect. A future challenge and opportunity for the state lies in this area. If I can make one point clear, it is this great need for processing and marketing Georgia's agricultural products. The fifteen-year period just ahead offers many challenges and opportunities for attracting such industry to the state. Our farmers can supply companies' needs with the products and commodities. We must give our attention in this direction. Imports-Exports I want to point out here the significant impact which imports and exports will have an Georgia agriculture. Our favorable agricultural trade balance-the excess of the value of our exports over imports-is one of the bright spots in today's U.S. balance of international payments account. Even after this balance is adjusted for exports for which no dollars were earned, it amounts to hundreds of millions of dollars annually. It helps considerably to offset some of the dollars drained from this country by such outlays as defense expenditures, U.S. investment abroad and tourist spending. We export more agricultural products than any other country-one.fifth of the world's total. These farm exports also make up one-fifth of all U.S. merchandise exports. Recently, agricultural exports 92 set many record highs. From fiscal year 1960 to fiscal year 1967, their value rose over one-half, from 4.5 bil. lion to 6.8 billion, then dropped to 6.3 billion in 1968. 7 During the past tWO years, one out of every four acres of cropland has been used to produce products for export. Coming closer to Georgia, we are great exporters of poultry and poultry products, particularly domestically, and quite a bit foreign also. Total agricultural exports from Georgia amounted to $120,000,000 in 1966. Much has been said about the population explosion, particularly abroad, but little has been said about the pro- duction explosion, here or in other countries. The term "explosion" may not be the proper one to use concerning other countries, but we must reckon with the fact that world agricultural production is in a strong comeback trend. Our technical assistance pro. grams are being designed to help countries learn how to produce for them selves more efficiently. Many of our efforts are beginning to payoff in this respect. Of course, increased production in foreign countries means greater competition in world markets. To compete, we will have to price our products at world market prices. It appears likely that world feed and fiber requirements for the next decade, and possibly beyond, will be met through the combined effect of more substitutes and increased production abroad. From a domestic standpoint, most agricultural economists feel that the needs here can be met with fewer crop acres than are currently being farmed. These trends will certainly bring pressure to hold farm prices down. To have a profitable agriculture in such a competitive environment will require new and better ways to produce even more efficiently than is currently being done. Prices must be maintained at levels that will enable U.S. farm commodities to compete success- fully in world markets. We cannot continue for any length of time on restrictions, protections, etc. In this instance, our national policy and situation necessarily will dictate Georgia's role in this phase in 1985. However, some experts feel that the U.S. will continue to play a greater role in sup plying the world with food. If this situation develops, particularly if population outstrips technology and produc. tion ability in other countries, U.S. and Georgia farmers will stand in a better position than at present. I feel that we should lean very heavily toward expanding our agricultural mar k e t s abroad in the next 15 years for the welfare of our agriculture and econ omy. Agribusiness Shopping Centers I feel it is important to mention here a development which will probably be taking place in Georgia sooner than some people may realize. The concept of agribusiness shopping centers is already being put into effect in some areas of the country. They are somewhat on the idea of shopping centers as we know them now, except their purpose and I 0 cat ion are different. These centers necessarily have to be located in areas of high agricultural concentration. These would be agricultural centers with various stores and businesses that furnish all farm related items used in repair and maintenance of equipment, petroleum supplies, feed, seed, and insecticides, herbicides, etc., animal health facilities, financial institutions, possibly livestock markets and various allied agribusinesses. Future One of Georgia's opportunities lies in the expansion of existing agribusiness industries, the creation of new firms and the bringing in of operations to further process and market the state's farm and forest products. Georgia ranks first in the production of peanuts, with over a third of the U.S. 93 acreage of this crop. J:l0wever, only. a portion of the crop IS processed m Georgia. Producing all the beef and pork needed to meet Georgia's present demand would increase farm income from cattle and hogs by approximately $90,000,000 to $100,000,000 annually. This would provide opportunities for the future plant expansion and added industrial payrolls. As the demand for food, fiber and forest products accelerates in the future, Georgia has an unexcelled opportunity to capitalize on its natural advantages, technological know-how and leadership in the years ahead. Agricultural Products Basically, we have made great progress in areas of production of the raw product or commodity. I feel that we will make even greater strides along these lines. Technological inn 0 vat ion s through research and development have made much of this possible. But this is only one step, for capital requirements and other issues also have a bearing on success and progress. Still there are great needs for breakthroughs on technology. We need new answers to show how we can further utilize some of our more important crop and forest resources. Continued efforts must be made in the area of peanut research, development and marketing expansion. Other states are doing much in the name of soybeans. But Georgia has or should have the primary responsibility for peanuts, as we are the major producers. Our forest resources are the greatest in the southeast. Forest products research should be continued and stepped up to more fully utilizethe entire tree. We have already made good progress in the areas of yields, harvesting and production techniques. But peanuts, soybeans and forest products h a v e great potential in the fields of food, medicine, synthetics and many end products that can be utilized for the benefit of consumers. Georgia is particularly fortunate to have recently established in Athens the largest of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Regional Utilization Research Centers which will house 145 different laboratories and a research staff numbering 460 people. This lab will seck new and improved uses of agricultural commodities in the South east. Georgia, of course, will be directly affected. This lab can provide a breakthrough for agribusiness and farming in Georgia and throughout the country. Synthetics and Implications I think most of us are aware that many products we use in our daily lives have changed considerably in one way or another in recent years. Probably one of the major products "jumping the barrier" was the famous case of margarine vs. butter. We are all familiar with the answer there; margarine has practically taken the market. We are also familiar with the situation with fibers in which manmade synthetics account for over 50 percent of the market, with cotton getting "the bounce." Plastics have found their way into today's market and are filling many needs. In terms of tonnage, meat substitutes are not a big thing, perhaps less than one percent of the total meat tonnage consumed in this country. But when production of these products on a per acre basis and on a cost basis is considered, the meatless products show quite an economical advantage. The meat industry is in an excellent position to take advantage of the natural preference for its products. However, there are limits to the price differential that can exist. There are many other areas in which synthetic products have made inroads into the traditional f 0 0 d products. There does exist a real threat to the traditional concept of production of 94 certain types of food and fiber. If prices of commodities are r a i sed through restricted production, or various types of collective bargaining activities without jus t compensation through quality or other factors, then synthetic products are bound to capture an increasing share of the traditional food and fiber markets. Loyalty to taste and tradition is quite strong in the food industry. However, if farm products are considerably higher priced than substitutes, these substitutes will eventually capture a great portion of the market. How does this affect the Georgia product picture by 1985? It is going to be up to technological and practical innovations of using agricultural products to feed and clothe at a reasonable cost to the consumer. Efficiencies of production and utilization will help in providing a low cost "middle step" (processing. marketing, etc.) t hat could enable the farmer to receive a fair price and the consumer to make the purchase at a reasonable cost. We must remember that, to prepare substitutes, basic raw materials and farm commodities are used. I predict there will be such an advancement in further utilization of agricultural products by 1985 that we will barely recognize them as we do today. We have broken through in a new frontier of fast food items, ready-to-cook or ready-to-eat products, all of which provide services for the housewife in her cooking chores. All of this offers even greater opportunity for expansion in the agribusiness segment. Irrigation In recent years, irrigation in Georgia has been fairly negligible and still is relatively small in relation to the total. The exception is where high-cash crops such as tobacco and vegetables are involved. Most of the tobacco in Georgia is being irrigated. Large scale commercial agriculture has thousands of dollars of capital outlay in land, ma- chinery and equipment, with everything hinging on the weather. Our people recognize the fact that a great risk of capital rests on the one factor of water. Additional investments are being made for irrigation units to assure having water to meet moisture needs when rainfall is not adequate to do the job. Conditions in Georgia in the past couple of years have set the stage for widespread expansion of irrigation. I can foresee by 1985 a very significant increase of irrigation units on commercial farms in the Coastal Plain area of our state. A leading Georgia agriculturist recently expressed the thought that the agricultural future of Georgia would likely swim or sink on the basis of learning to use the underground water supply in South Georgia. The Coastal Plain region from Augusta, Macon and Columbus southward contains billions of gallons of water. This has been termed as the largest underground water supply in this country. It is a very valuable water resource which I feel is definitely going to have an important effect on the future of agricultural production. I can foresee that the present infancy of irrigation in Georgia will grow manyfold by 1985. Its greatest impact will be in the area of vegetable and forage production. Agricultural Occupations Shifts in the labor force and occupational requirements in all fields have changed drastically in recent years. The shift in agricultural occupations and needs have been no exception. These needs are becoming more specific as we move toward more specialized and highly technical work in agriculture and agribusiness. There is a definite need for strong support to assure an adequate supply of properly trained people to meet future needs. Human Resource Development The only way our economy and civili- 95 zation can make advances is through its people. We must be sure that our human resources receive proper training and education to fill the needs of agriculture and industry in the years ahead. In the age of great technology and advancement, there is no place for human manpower that is unskilled or unproductive. If we allow such a condition to exist, chaos could result. Uneducated and untrained people cannot operate businesses or technical equipment or machinery. Extension A great responsibility for carrying adequate knowledge and assistance to the people of our state, particularly those in agriculture and agribusiness, rests with the Cooperative Extension Service of the University of Georgia College of Agriculture. I have seen the work conducted by this organization. In my opinion, it is the single most important facet supplying farmers and agribusiness people with the I ate s t know-how needed to push forward in this field today. Georgia is fortunate in having one of the very top Extension Services in the United States. There has been a great need for our people to seek and put to use experimental data coming from our universities. Extension has carried out its task in a magnificant manner. However, the responsibility of this job is going to be greater and more important in the years ahead. With the many changes taking place in agriculture, it has been necessary for agencies and institutions serving agriculture to reassess their leadership responsibilities. This has been particularly true of an educational org'wization such as the Cooperative Extension Service. They have a responsibility for providing farm people and others with information on which to make sound decisions for today and for the future. Education is the key to successful agriculture. Recommendations developed by the Extension Service from the best research data available have aided farmers in achiev. ing fields and incomes that just a few years ago were considered impossible. The dollar contribution coming frorn agriculture in this state, made possible by the Extension Service, w 0 u I d amount to several millions of dollars and would be many times more than the cost involved in conducting the program. In moving through the years to 1985 we are going to have more so. phisticated farmers, larger agribusiness firms and a larger volume of produc. tion. All this will necessitate Georgia's having the best available people, in sufficient numbers, on its Extension staff to continue the present record and advance beyond it. The businessman. farmer and agribusiness people are going to demand it. Their needs are going to be great, and they will rely on the latest research and techniques to help them keep pace and stay ahead. Today's Extension Service continues to recognize its primary obligation to commercial agriculture, but it is work ing on many new and challenging tasks. It is working with area and com munity development organizations to increase farm income and make com munities more desirable places in which to live. It is working with many agribusiness firms and with industries related to agricultural productivity. It is working with more urban and suburban families, with more low income groups, and it is promoting recrea tional development as another source of farm income. Education is its mission. Agriculture and agribusiness must rely more heavily on this or ganization in the years ahead. The competent Extension staff of county personnel is supported by a staff of highly trained specialists. Being a part of the faculty of the University, Extension draws upon the resources of the University as well as those of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It is an organization that continually 96 re.evaluates and redesigns its educational program. The Extension program is carried out in four major areas-agriculture, home economics, youth development and community resource development. The demands of the giant agribusiness sector of our economy, plus its highly commercialized farms, are going to be greater. The next fifteen years are going to place greater demands upon the resources of the Cooperative Extension Service of this state. We wi11 be failing to meet the needs and will slow our growth and development if this or ganization is not provided with sufficient personnel and funds to continue and expand its program. Vocational Education in Agriculture Vocational education in agriculture programs are necessary. We are going to need these programs more than ever in the next decade and beyond. This does not necessarily mean we will need greater numbers in this program. To the contrary, we will likely have fewer, and therefore will need a strong program. The writer has had the opportunity to see both sides of today's rural and urban society, agriculture and in dustry, education and business. Fewer people are living on farms. The trend in Georgia will probably continue downward slightly, but the needs in agriculturally related industries are growing. These needs wi11 be even greater by 1985. It is a must that we offer every opportunity to boys interested in agriculture. We must present them with proper training as part of their high school program. Most of these bovs have an agricultural back ground. This is a great asset when applied in the agricultural fields and businesses. This background and training can be broadened through proper ag training. Because fewer of these boys will have the opportunity to practice commercial agriculture on the farm does not lessen the need for formal education in this field. All areas of sales, processing and marketing of agricultural products need young men with this training and background. The cha11enge to vocational education in agriculture will be to see into the future far enough to make needed changes in curriculum and educational programs in order to present teaching which is not outdated and which will prepare these young men to meet the changes ahead. We must strengthen our vocational education in agriculture in high schools. Youth Programs No look into agriculture could possibly be made without special attention to the youth programs which are agriculturally related. I refer to the 4-F and FFA programs in this state. I feel I am adequately qualified to speak concerning the s e organizations, the need for them and the importance they play both in agriculture and in citizenship and leadership development. Our most important resource is people and the foundation should be started with our young people. The 4-H program in this state is under the direction and supervision of the Cooperative Extension Service. The Future Farmers of America organization (FFA) is closely related to the program of vocational education in agriculture of the State Board of Edu cation. These youth programs are not related to agricultural youth only. They are made up of rural, rural non-farm, urban and suburban members. Enough good things cannot be said about the 4-H program. It is undoubtedly one of the finest things going in this country. Georgia should be especially proud, as the birth of 4-H some sixty-four years ago took place in Newton County. Today Georgia is the leader, with nearly 155,000 boys and girls enrolled. This program should be come even more urbanized while continuing to meet the needs of rural farm and rural non-farm boys and girls. 97 Four-H members have an opportunity to enter many varied pro j e c t s which fit their particular needs. The demands on the 4-H program are going to be considerably greater by 1985. This will be due to the increase in the number of youth eligible for this program. However, eligibility is not the main concern. Need is the greaest concern I can see ahead. I recommend and encourage all effort behind this fine program. The Future Farmers of America (FFA) has a small enrollment and is designed with similar goals. However, it is designed to meet a different situation in many cases. This organization is national in scope. The Georgia Association of Future Farmers of America stands near the top in mem- bership and quality of program. FFA enables boys to handle projects in close relationship to their study of vocational education in agriculture in high school. Through FFA they receive practical experience with their various agricultural projects. It also provides leadership experiences which prepare high school boys for any walk of life. That there are fewer opportunities for young men to practice commercial farming as a full time career by no means reduces the need for FFA or vocational agriculture training in high school. These boys need a practical background and foundation for their careers in agribusiness. In summary, I believe that our greatest return on investment is coming from our work with youth. I would encourage investing more resources in this area (4-H and FFA). This is one way to assure for the future leaders and citizens with the preparation to meet the needs of farming and agribusiness in the years ahead. Occupational Opportunities The great change we have seen in agricultural technology has greatly affected our labor requirements. The need for unskilled share croppers and "sweat and muscle" is not as great as it has been. However, there is still a shortage of working labor on mast Georgia farms. Due to the cost-Price squeeze and a general low return On many of our farms, farm laborers can. not be offered the wages they can reo ceive in other work. There is a scarcity of tractor drivers truck drivers, farm machinery and equipment operators, etc. This type of labor will probably become even more scarce by 1985. With mechanization and increased technology, we are going to need fewer farmers by 1985 than we have now. Probably only 10 to 15 percent of boys on the farm today will remain there or go back after their college train. ing. But with the great expansion in agribusiness, the occupational oppor. tunities for them in this field are great. In fact, there is already a need for more agricultural graduates than Our College of Agriculture at the Univer. sity of Georgia is now turning out. There is a very bright outlook for agri. cultural graduates. The d e man d is strong and I foresee a continuation of this in the years ahead. I think we can visualize that agri. culture has a need also for top scientists who are not necessarily trained with an agricultural career in mind. There are many agribusiness firms and organizations that are hiring microbiologists, pathologists, mathematicians, etc. They also need efficiency experts, , industrial engineers and other techni cians. I believe there should be a change in the type of education that we are providing our agricultural students. We probably tend to specialize too much. These students would probably be more flexible and able to adapt to rapid changes in agricultm:e if they have a broader scientific base. More business courses should be included in the curriculum. 98 Managers There is a serious shortage of quali- fied managers to meet the needs of our owner-operators in Georgia today. We are in great need of a training center to prepare men who are unqualified or do not wish to attend college. However, they could be trained for management positions at the farm level. There is a serious shortage in this area today. With the high degree of specialized equipment on today's farms, there is a need for people who are trained to operate these tractors, combines and various harvesters. Business Training Whatever agricultural education is offered, a high degree of business training should be a part of it. Specifically, I am thinking in terms of accounting, bookkeeping, economics, record keeping, etc. Farmers of the future will have to be good business men. Farming is big business now; it will be bigger in the future. We must not have men trained as good producers of crops and livestock who do not know how to keep or evaluate records or how to read and understand a profit-loss statement. This not only will handicap the farmer in his day-to-day operations, but it will put him at a disadvantage in obtaining the capital he will need. A farmer cannot expect to walk into a bank and request large amounts of credit without being able to present the banker with the information he needs in order to make a knowledgeable and fair decision regarding the request. Agricultural Industry Training In addition to the job faced by our educational institutions, the r e is a growing need for corporations within an industry to train and develop their people to do their particular jobs. The college or university can prepare a per. SOn in general terms. However, when this individual goes to the agribusi- ness field, he must be further trained to meet the needs of that particular company. Farm finance institutions train their men, agricultural equipment manufacturers teach theirs, food processors and, marketers further prepare their people, service institutions further develop their men and women. This need will continue. But there must be more coordination. We need to improve communications between businessmen and educators. Too often businessmen hold conferences but fail to invite educators. Also, educators hold meetings and seminars but do not invite businessmen. In the future we must take positive action to establish communication channels between educators and businessmen. This is presently going on between Extension Service and farmers and agribusiness groups. In fact, Extension is probably the leader in this area. Agricultural Structure- Methods of Operation We have seen definite patterns beginning to emerge in size and scale of farming. There seems to be some defi nite trend toward the future. The writer would like to discuss the type of farm ing structure which will produce our commodities and products in the years ahead. The Individual Family Farm The family farm has been the backbone of America's agriculture. The many changes we have discussed thus far illustrate, of course, that things have not remained the same. This has certainly been true with family farms. Thousands of these farms chose not to change and therefore had to cease their operation. With the technological advancements made in agriculture, all of them could not have existed even if they had chosen to do so. The family farm as we knew it, and even as we know today, will not exist a few decades from now. There will be family farms, however, and these will be busi- 99 nesses in the truest sense. And they will be big businesses. Family farms that cannot grow to a profitable size and those with ~oor management will be absorbed mto larger units or be turned into part- time or retirement enterprises. Gross annual sales of $10,000 have been used in the past by economists as the dividing line between adequate and inadequate family farms. This $10.000 figure is probably out of date now, or should be anyway. with today's costs and investments. In fact. it may take gross sales of $40,000 or more to yield earnings needed to hold talented farm family members and labor. It takes superior management to op erate a farm. Family members must be wise in the ways of financial planning and capital utilization. It means forsaking the once major goal of full ownership of all resources and relying more on borrowed capital, rented land and other resources. Operators of fam ily farms must gear up for quality control. They must know market requirements and find efficient ways of producing, timing, sorting, assembling and transporting products. The family farm of tomorrow will be larger than the family farm of today. These farms will become more specialized. even in areas of wide agricultural diversification. I believe that contracting to larger firms or to corporation farms or agribusiness firms will come on the scene very strongly. The family farm will play an important role in our state's agricultural future, as it has in the past. But by 1985 we will not recognize them as we do today. Corporation Farms When we speak of corporation farms. what do we mean? Most people inter. pret corporation farming as a large conglomerate, stockholder owned and operating several thousand acres. This may be one form of corporate farm ing, but it is not the predominant form. Kinds of Corporations The most common type of corporation found in farming is an incorporated type of family farm business. This larger than average family farm usually has evolved either from a family part. nership or large individual operation that has reached a certain size in terms of assets. Inheritance taxes and transfer of assets from one generation to another have made conditions desir. able for formation of a corporation. Thus many farms that appear to be one man operations to local people may in fact be family corporations. When we s pea k of corporation farms, most people think of the out. side corporation, publicly owned. Some of these have existed in farming for many years. Others have more recently expanded, going into farm production to compliment their agribusiness in terest. Also, some have gone into farm ing because they see business opportu. nities in producing farm products. It is also well to keep in mind that there are a few special income tax ad vantages to a corporation that are not available to an individual. It should be pointed out that cor porate farms comprise only about one percent of all the commercial farms in the country. Presently these firms op erate about seven percent of the land in farms. but they account for a some what higher proportion of sales of farm products. Corporations 0 the I' than the family type represent only about two-tenths percent of all com mercial farms and about two percent of gross farm sales. Production of corporate farms tends to be concentrated to a great extent in beef cattle, feedlots, poultry and fruits and vel!etables. Public farm cor porations are frequently involved in manufacturing and selling farm in puts or in processing and marketing the commodities they produce. More than two-thirds of all farming cor porations are family businesses. And 100 not all corporations are large. Nearly two-fifths had sales of less than $40.000 in 1967. A recent USDA survey of corpora- tions having agricultural operations in GeorQ:ia showed there are a total of 220 farming corporations in the state. Of these. 29 are individual corporations, 146 are family corporations, 38 are other types, and seven were unclassified. These 220 corporation farms accounted for only 0.56 of one percent of all commercial farms in this state. They were somewhat larger in average size, accounting for 2.98 percent of alI land in commercial farms in Georgia. These corporate farms average 1,710 acres. compared to 333 acres for alI cemmercial farms in this state. There is an increasing trend to the incorporation of farms in Georgia. Farming is becoming more and more of a business and is being handled as such. These large scale operations are protecting themselves in the event of a husine,;s failure. For example, the owners of a corporation may be liable for a smaller personal loss than other owners would be. Their losses are limited to the amount invested by them in the corporation. Farming by corporation is not a new development in agriculture. USDA indicates that. while the number of corporations has increased in recent vears. almost onehalf of the corporate farm,; today were started before 1960. The structural form of business organization holds an important key to meeting agriculture's capital needs. Farm managers must give more capital consideration to the potential advantages of the corporate organization. Family corporations seem to h a v e many advantages. I am not yet con vinced that large conglomer~te corporations have merit. Their success or failure in agriculture is yet to be determined. Reports of some operations indicate disappointment in their farming activities. While they stand to reap certain benefits from large scale operation. they also pay a penalty in the lack of personal interest and financial involvement on the part of managers. looking Ahead Specialization is a key word in agricul. ture's future. However, I believe that the agricultural management revolution is pointing toward different forms of specialization. In the past, speciali. zation tended to move in the direction of individual, highly specialized farms. with only one or two products to market. Such farms tend to be quite vulnerable to wide variations in their limited market. In the future we wilI probably see more farms which are more diversified in their total structures but highly specialized in each unit of the structure. For example, there wiII be more farm businesses that win hring together under a single management control several highly specialized divisions. There win be a hog division, a beef division, a corn division, etc. Each division wll be manned by a highly skilled staff of specialists, all under one overalI management organization. Businesses organized in this manner retain the advantages of diver sification. yet the large volume produced by each division win justify a very high degree of specialization in each. Now, I am not suggesting that corporate farming should, or necessarily win, become the predominant form of business in American agriculture. But I am suggesting the need for careful, open-minded appraisal of its possible advantages. The ultimate objective must be to find for agriculture the most effective ways of raising and managing capital while maintaining the independence and flexibility that agricultural managers desire and need. What about the type of farming structure in Georgia by 1985? Individual private family farms will continue to predominate. They will be more highly specialized and business. 101 like in their operations. They will be large commercial units. Family farms that are incorporated will be similar to, but larger than, the average private family farm. There will be an increase in the family corporations because of the advantages of larger size farm units and the benefits of incorporating. In addition, we will probably see more agribusiness firms expanding their operations to the farm level. All in all, it spells a greater need for human resource development, training and research to meet the needs these changes in structure of farming in Georgia. Agricultural Technology And Research Research and technology have prob. ably been more advanced and affected more people than any other single in dustry. The advance in agriculture has been faster than in any other industry. But agricultural research has bene fited everyone. We are the best. fed people on earth-a result of teamwork of research scientists, educators, farmers, processors and manufacturers. Other great contributions concerning human health and welfare have been in vitamins, trace elements, wonder drugs such as penicillin and strepto mycin, medicines for heart patients and capsule foods for astronauts in space. Agriculture has teamed with medical science in studies of cancer, goiter, radiation from atomic fallout, tooth decay, arthritis, undulant fever and tuberculosis. Four agricultural scien. tists have received Nobel Prizes in medicine. Development of recreation areas, insect control, lawn management and ornamental landscaping all stem from agricultural research. Experiment Stations Research is the life blood of America's economy, a vital tool of progress. The agricultural experiment s tat ion s in Georgia are recognized as among the best in the nation. They have made many contributions to the state. With out the work of college experiment sta. tions the nation's agriculture would be at least 30 years behind where it is today. Georgia's stations, strategically located throughout the state, are find. ing answers to meet the needs and con. ditions of our state's climate, soil and people. Their research embraces all crops and livestocks, soils, pest con. troIs, engineering, conservation of nat. ural resources, economics, timber utilization and marketing. They are also working with today's newest sciences including those dealing with electron: ics, computers, radiation, solar energy, radioactive isotopes, food for outer space and genetics. Research work needed by 1985 is going to be even greater. We must give our full support to the continued work of our experiment stations. Ind ustry Development With the need so great, we cannot rely entirely upon public research and de velopment through our educational institutions alone. Agribusiness firms and industries that deal, sell and service agriculture must also increase their ef forts in this field. Much of our chemicals, seeds, machinery, techniques, etc., have been discovered and developed by private agribusiness industry. This must continue. The entire burden cannot be handled by the experiment stations of our colleges and universities. Labor, Bargaining, Farm Organization Farmers have not had an effective farm organization to fulfill their every need. There have been several major farm organizations in this country with varied purposes and, sometimes, considerable friction between them. In addition, diversity of opinion and goals within an organization have caused internal problems. As we are aware, farm numbers have declined to the lowest level in history. Within the next few years we will probably have only about one million farmers attempting 102 to meet the needs of our entire coun try, plus additiona~ re.quir~ment~ from abroad. So organIzatIOn IS gomg to become more effective than we have seen in the past. Many individual com modity groups have been effectively or ganized. Some of these have obtained considerable bargaining power in the market place. Farm labor will need to become more skilled than ever before. The de mand for skilled labor to operate tech nical equipment is needed in many areas. Agricultural operations m u s t compete with the market to find quali. fied people. Wage rates in agriculture in 1985 probably will be comparable to those paid similar labor in any other area. Unskilled labor in agriculture will also be in line with unskilled labor in any other industry. Unless present trends change, we will have labor unions in agriculture by 1985. With the long range expansion and growth potential of our country, it is unlikely that we will have surplus labor. In a growth situation labor is quite mobile and tends to seek its best opportunity and highest wages. Agribusiness opportunities and needs in the labor field are large. The demand will be greater in the future. However, this need primarily will be for skilled or semiskilled labor. And this ca1ls for training facilities to be made available to meet this need. Agricultural Finance Requirements Capital requirements for agriculture are growing. primarily because of the size of the farms and the degree of mechanization. As the average farm size continues to increase, so will in vestment in land, buildings and equip. ment. The transition of agriculture from sole reliance upon capital gen erated by the enterprise and bank credit to the introduction of equity capital from outside agriculture could be as dramatic as any development thus far in this century. The challenge for agriculture is to decide how fast to move toward a completely commercial agriculture. one that can produce, pro cess and market at the lowest possible cost. Capital costs today in agriculture are nearly twice as large as labor costs, on an average. They will continue to grow more rapidly in the future. Thus the efficient acquisition and management of capital is becoming more and more important in the successful farm operation. Capital is highly mobile. Farmers must comoete for available new capital with all other businesses. including large corporations such as U.S. Steel and IBM. They must also compete with the federal government and with other farms. Agricultural credit is now one of the major factors in agriculture and will become more so by 1985. The reason is obvious. With larger operations, large amounts of machinery, large amounts of chemicals, spiraling land costs, etc., capital requirements are increased. As of January 1, 1968, mort- gage debt in Georgia (from financial institutions) amounted to $464,002,000. Nonreal estate debt (from financial institutions) amounted to $201,- 300,000. This is a total of $665,005,000. And this does not include the tremendous volume of trade debt or merchant credit from equipment and machinery dealers, fertilizer and ag chemical companies, etc. The total is somewhere in excess of 1.3 billion dollars. Borrowings from these institu- tional sources (banks, Farmers Home Administration, Production Credit Association, Federal Land Bank, life insurance companies, etc.) is expected to more than double in the next ten years. The demand for more capital is going to be greater than ever before. It must be available. 103 Land Usage The use of land in this country is definitely going to have its effect on farming activities. Our increasing popula. tion and spreading suburbia have al ready made an impact. Population growths, the need for housing, community development and expansion will use more and more of our land. As land values rise and taxes increase, many farmers can no longer afford to use their land for agricultural purposes. In many instances they are forced to sell and move their operation to other areas. We have also reached a critical sit uation in Georgia where much agricul. tural property is unfairly taxed. Many farm properties are taxed on their mar ketable base rather than for purpose. Some farmers have been forced to sell because of increasing ad valorem taxes based upon the market price of their property rather than upon its use. This can be a very dangerous situation in the years ahead. I strongly recommend that farm land be taxed according to its use and productivity, not on its market value. In the future, particularly in some of our richer farm areas, I believe agri. cultural zoning must come into effect. The most arable, level and highly pro ductive land is heing used for cammer cial and residential purposes, if it happens to he in the right place. I see the need for zoning in order to insure that good farm land is available for future productivity. Marginal. more sloping and nonproductive land should he used for housing and business. We mmt look far enough ahead to pre serve our hest land. Figures indicate that conversion to commercial or in dustrial use each year requires some 500.000 acres of farm and ranch land in the United States. There will he a continuing need for land for recreational purposes. We will have more leisure time and a larger population to use it. Some of our mar ginal land will he put to recreational uses, thus giving further opportunity to part.time farmers or marginal farm lands. Agricultural Policy Everything that has been stated in this paper can be completely changed by legislative policy at the state or na. tional level. Legislative attitude toward domestic problems and also toward foreign trade can have the most significant bearing on the future. Can. gressional action on restrictions and controls versus freedom and no Control would change the agricultural situation entirely. A delicate balance must be maintained between price and income benefits that can be derived from collective bargaining. Otherwise, the potential loss of markets that might result from lower priced food and fiber substitutes is great. Prices must be maintained at levels which will enable U.S. farm commodities to com pete successfully in world markets. The declining political influence of agriculture will make it increasingly difficult to maintain support for gov ernment price support programs. Some of these programs may be hindering rather than helping to increase the demand for farm products. At any rate, legislative measures pertaining to agricultural programs and poiicies are going to determine to a great extent the future of farming and agribusiness. Those in legislative positions must be made aware of the importance of agriculture to our entire future. They must realize that, if this farm machine is allowed to run down, it cannot be cranked up overnight and put into full production again. It is not like turning a faucet on and off. The flow of agricultural products must be steady and orderly. Our future depends on it. Fred W. Greer, Jr. received his Master's Degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Georgia in 1963. In July 1964 he was employed by Citizens & Southern National Bank to work in the Agricultural 104 Department. He was promoted to agricultural offic~r in 1966 and to assistant vic.e president In October 1968. Mr. Greer IS currently serving on the state 4-H Advisory Board and the st~te ;'\dvis~ry Board f,?r vocational EducatIOn In Agnculture. He IS director of the Georgia Agribusiness Coun- cil and committee chairman of the Georgia Plant Food Educational Society. Mr. Greer is a member of the Board of Control, Agribusiness Club of the Atlanta Chamber of Commerce, and vice president of the University of Georgia Agricultural Alumni Society. He was named Most Outstanding Senior in the College of Agriculture at the University in 1962. TABLE I PERSONS SUPPLIED BY ONE FARMWORKER* Year 1900 1920 1940 Persons supplied in U.S. 5 7 11 Persons supplied abroad 2 1 o 1960 22 4 1968 38 5 '50urce: Table compiled from information obtained in The Form Index, July 1969 Total 7 8 11 26 43 AGRICULTURE .. .. " .. .. .. 1. Georgia Crop Reporting Service, Georllia Farm Report, (Aug. 12, 1969). 2. U. S. Department of Agriculture, The Farm Index, (ERS, July 1969, Vol. III, No.7) p. 20. 3. Georgia Crop Reporting Service, Georllia AliriClIltllral Facts, (Athens, Ga., 1959-1966), p. 9. 4. Georgia Progress, "Agribusiness-Georgia's Fast Growing Giant," (Feb. 1969), p. 22. 5. Ibid. 6. Fife, LaVon S., "Maintaining the Competitive Position of Agriculture," (Farm and Industrial Equipment Institute), p. 6, 7. U. S. Department of Agriculture, Our Foreign Agricultural Trade," (ERS, Bulletin No. 312), p. 5 105 critique: Agriculture in Georgia By Stephen J. Brannen, Chairman, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, University of Georgia MOD ERN agriculture transcends the traditional concept of rural fann. ing. Though still rural and natural reo . source based, farming is now made up of large-scale, ~pecialized,. capital-using and raw-matenals-generatmg business firms. Such farms must respond di. rectly to market forces and engage in an ever increasing volume of trade with non-farm businesses. Similarly non-farm businesses depend on farms for either markets for goods and serv_ ices or for supplies of raw materials. This inter-locking of business interests produces a rural-urban, agricultural_ industrial complex that vitally affects the economy of Georgia and particularly our welfare as consumers. In this context, the complex and dynamic character of agriculture requires a broad conceptual framework as weU as substantial analysis and insight in order to assess and project its status. Mr. Greer ably responds to the challenge. The agribusiness concept which Mr. Greer advocates and adopts for his paper is crucial for a comprehensive view of agriculture. It clearly reveals the fallacy of using farm numbers and farm employment as criteria for asses sing the economic status and import. ance of farming in our economy. Rather the concept focuses on the expanding base for economic growth that technological change, increasing productivity and the resulting structure of farming afford. It is, therefore, appro priate to emphasize the growing economic interchange hetween farms and non-farm business which Mr. Greer documents and to assert that there is a need for greater understanding of the character of agriculture. This is particularly important for the quantity, form, and content of educational activo ities to be tailored to agriculture's needs in 1985. Mr. Greer's perception and enthusiasm lead him through comprehensive coverage of the subject of his paper. To his credit he is unequivocal in stating his opinions. He is excessively gen- 106 eerdouucsatioI'nn praJSJng the research and establish~ent. and disa.rms the critic by insertIng hIs conclusIOns regarding the .future . thlroughlout the paper along. WIt? tOPICa ana yses 0 f the curent SItuatIOn. . Irrespective of the analytlc~l ap- proach chosen, however, one IS led inevitably to the same general conclu- sions about the status and future of a~e~qeruicicurhelatunrgmei.nogrIetrsapccaihdpaliyrtaa. cl,Fteerlweasesnr dflaasrntmrdusctwaunirldel labor and generate a much larger vol- ume of output. Educational levels in agriculture will ~av~ to. be h.igher. Managerial and Information sCiences must attain equivalent importance with the biological and physical sciences in agricultural education for the future. The primary focus of Mr. Greer's paper is on comme~cial ~gricult~re with eXtraordinary consideratIOn of ItS pro- duce structure. In general his assess- ment of major changes is consistent with my own expectations for com- mercial agriculture. I believe the gen- eral changes in agriculture's resource requirements, its general role in the economy, and the policy environment in which it must operate are more im- portant for educational consideration than whether forage is harvested by machines or animals. Further emphasis on these points should sharpen the focus of the position paper. Inclusion of forestry is certainly a logical extension of the scope of the paper. Farming and forestry control four-fifths of our natural resources and together represent the source of space and relatively pure environment to meet the future demands of society for natural resource services. In this sense the position paper is deficient in its assessment of the future product-mix of agriculture and forestry. Changing consumer preferences accompanied by growth in population and incomes sug- gest that recreational services, expan- s!on of aquaculture and the produc- bon of ornamentals or other floricul- tural products are likely to claim pri- ority over trees and grass in the output for 1985. Even with expansion of the output along these lines, agriculture and forestry can meet future market requirements with less acreage because of increasing productivity. Consequently, the role of agriculture as the conservator and supplier of natural resources for future non-traditional demands of society should be recognized in assessing agriculture's educational and policy requirements. Subsidization of conservation and of education regarding natural resources is compatible with the longer-run nature of society's goals and time perspective. I agree with Mr. Greer's initial premise that technological change characterized agricultural developments of recent decades and will continue to foster unprecedented adjustments within the agricultural industry. It should be emphasized that technological change is itself a product of research and education that is funded as a matter of public policy. Consequently, concluding the position paper on policy issues appears to be an afterthought when the conditioning influence of policy is a part of the analytical framework for both the present and fu ture status of agriculture. In agriculture, public policies of three basic types have been influential. One is the developmental type which supports research and education activities that have resulted in development of capital using technology. I would argue for the continuation of these policies but suggest that there are opportunities to modify the substance of the activities so that the results of technological change cause less painful adjustments for rural people and institutions. The second type of policy is compensatory in nature. These policies attempt to redress the disparities that develop between individuals or groups in our society. Price support payments fall in this category. They affect economic adjustments by attracting larger output and delaying out-migration. New 107 approaches are needed in this type of policy. The third type of policy is regulatory or restrictive in nature. Sanitation requirements, supp!y c~mtrols, zoning, taxation, etc. are In thIS category. I anticipate heavier impact of these kinds of policies on agriculture. Mr. Greer ably presents the issue of farm and forest property tax levels. Research and education about the relative effects of such policies on the ability of agriculture in this state to remain competitive will have to be strengthened. The relative influence of these types of policies between now and 1985 is unknown. Public policy as a function of the political process can be modified through an informed citizenry. Herein lies an increasingly important role of education. Effects of Farm Technological Change on Rural People And Institutions In earlier times agriculture employed our natural resources, a large proportion of the labor force, limited amounts of capital and generated a surplus as its contribution to .economic progress. It sustained the local community and fostered its growth. The commercial character of agriculture today is a product of market forces and public policies consistent with the goal of economic development. This goal and those forces are too powerful to roll back. They force us to larger farms, to substitute capital for labor (and land) and toward a smaller farm population. Rural communities and institutions decline if farming is their sole economic base and no compensatory increase in other types of employment is developed. Growth in farm output and lower real costs of food are implicit elements of national policy which keeps supply of farm products so abundant that farm prices remain relatively low. Unfortunately, neither public policy nor research and education has devoted enough resources to provide the knowl- edge required to make the institutional and human adjustments dictated by changes in the structure and resource mix of agriculture. The present status of agriculture begs for increased em. phasis in education on the socio-eco_ nomic implications of technology. In 1964 less than one-fourth of the farms in Georgia-20,473-accounted for 82 percent of the products sold. The remaining three-fourths of the farms represent human and natural resources that cannot escape the power of technological and economic forces in rural areas. The majority of these resources must either move into larger farm operations or out of farming. Fortunately, however, I believe that agriculture in Georgia has already experienced the most drastic and painful structural adjustments, particularly in terms of human resources. Sharecropping and hand labor have been virtually eliminated. The number of farms in the economic classes capable of adjusting in size and output to remain competitive has increased. In addition, the number of full time farm workers on Georgia farms has increased each census period since 1954. Because of the high average age of persons in the farm work force, the majority of them will need to be replaced by 1985. These factors point to the likelihood that more than 10-15 percent of the farm youth could find employment opportunities in agriculture. Farm Population and Rural Institutions More Stable by 1985 The emerging structure of agriculture in Georgia promises much more moderate reductions in farm numbers, farm employment and farm population by 1985 than those that have occurred since 1955. Consequently, the role of farming as a supplier of human resources to other sectors of the economy will be diminished. In fact, farming may become a strong competitor for the work force in rural communities. The farm work force I envision, 108 however, will be at least semi-skilled operatives. Part of the challenge we face is that of according farm employment the higher status that is consistent with its developing character. This view does not alter the basic premises or conclusions of the position paper with respect to the accelerated pace of technological change, unprecedented increases in capital requirements and growth in farm output with attendant increases in the potential for agribusiness development. It does suggest caution in projecting substantial reductions in the clientele for educational programs at all levels in rural counties. There has emerged a family income dualism in communities where nonfarm opportunities are available within commuting distances. This dualism involves a combination of extensive type farming (grass and trees for example) and non-farm employment by either the farm operator or members of his family. The positive effects of this dualism are reflected in higher family incomes, stable or growing rural communities and institutions. Fewer rural counties are now experiencing net declines in total population. Implications for Education Relating education to agriculture's future needs will require modifications so that it parallels the agribusiness character of the industry. Technical education will be essential for a skilled farm work force. College degrees, already becoming common among farm operators, will be more generally essential for success. In this respect I support the emphases on research and education outlined in the position paper. In addition, I believe that established youth and adult education programs should include more "knowwhy" content along with the "knowhow." Education for effective citizenship and leadership in agriculture must include social sciences and business curricula. With appropriate emphases, education can contribute not only to agricultural efficiency but also to less painful and more orderly interchange of resources and products between agriculture and other sectors of Georgia's economy, as economic growth takes place. The educational' challenges of agriculture will be undiminished in 1985. 109 critique: Agricu Iture in Georgia As THE AUTHOR of this position paper indicates, agriculture is indeed a broad field with many facets embrac_ ing a wide range of disciplines. Because of the complexity of our social and economic structure, there is no such thing as a portion of our social or economic framework living and being apart from the rest of society. There is a thread of interdependency woven throughout our socio-economic existence. Because of this interdependency and accepting the concept that a sound and aggressive agriculture is basic to all other social and economic growth, I felt that substantial changes in agriculture must and will occur. I am. in general agreement with the author of the position paper as to the identification of agriculture, including agri-business and forestry. He has adequately and factually described the current agricultural complex in terms of product productivity and economic contributions in the business area. I see no need to reflect further on these particulars. The thrust of this critique will be to point out and further emphasize some topics which, in my judgment, will be highly significant to further growth and orderly development of agriculture in Georgia. The two keys which will unlock the treasures of the future for all people are EDUCAnON and RESEARCH. By Thomas T. Irvin, Com missioner of Agriculture, Georgia Department of Agriculture Education Agricultural education must not be limited to those actually engaged in agribusiness or farming. The entire student body at the high school level should be exposed to the history and impact of American agriculture. These courses should be a part of the academic curriculum and not restricted to vocational agricultural and home economics classes. This need is outstandingly significant in view of the probability that approximately 98 percent of the high school population in 1985 will have no 'farm 110 background or experience. It seems to me that some ~nowledge ~nd un.de:standing of agnculture, basIc as It IS to our economy and survival, must be taught all students along with math, art, literature, history, and the sciences. Leaders in education must move boldly forward in new fields of training for men in the field of agri-business and for the on-the-farm worker. Leaders with imagination must look to the future and delineate the problems and opportunities of the next decade. When this is done, a new curriculum will result which will allow for creative thinking and learning by the teacher and the student. Surely agriculture would fail to reach its potential unless this is done. But, more importantly, the living standards of all people in this country would slowly sink. I do not propose to offer here a blueprint for agricultural education, but I do want to offer some valid points which I think are of importance to the future. District or regional training programs should be established which would offer specialized instruction in every phase of agribusiness, farming, and forestry. These programs should require full-time attendance and extend over a two to three month period. The curriculum should be broader than just how to do a job, that is, driving a truck or tractor. It should involve all of the ramifications of why, what, how. supportive maintenance, safety, etc. Beyond this, and of equal importance, the faculty and curriculum must be oriented to instill in the student an understanding of his relationship to those about him and a desire to achieve. Adequate motivation and proper attitudes would be key words for the faculty and the school-most people already know how to do a better job than they are doing. This school should be initially restricted to students who already have a job and where their employers are willing to grant them academic leave. Such leave could carry reduced pay by the employer with a contract that the student would return to his former em- ployment upon completion of the course. Counseling with operators and management of agribusiness would be an integral part of such a program. Research It has been said that an unwritten goal of agriculture has been to reduce the hours of physical labor required to produce a bale of cotton, a bushel of corn, a ton of peanuts, a gallon of milk. This goal has been accomplished. But to continue to progress down the road toward eliminating or still further reducing physical labor in farm commodity production will take more emphasis on research. We have been using up our basic research knowledge at an alarming rate while concentrating on applied or short-term problems in agriculture. More emphasis on biological research-the fuller understanding of the life processes-will be needed to achieve even greater productivity and efficiency in agriculture. If we fail to expand our basic research programs in agriculture, the eventual result could be a shortage of information vital to applied research as it affects the farmer and the crops, livestock, and timber products which he markets. One further point should be noted in relation to the potential in the future for feed grains and certain forage crops in Georgia. The Coastal Plains area of the state has one of the greatest known underground water reservoirs, the artesian strata. now largely untapped. Georgia's huge poultry industry offers a great market for feed grains, which now largely come from the Midwest. As new varieties are developed in the future and as yields per acre continue to climb from increased production knowhow, it appears possible that Georgia could experience a great surge in feed grain production. Since the state is deficient in the production of both cattle and hogs, this increase in grain and forage production could lead to increased emphasis on both of these 111 types of farm enterprises. In addition, pasture acreages of improved grasses such as Coastal Bermuda should continue to increase providing additional quantities of forages available for use as sHag and hay crops, in addition to grazing. This development could result in Georgia becoming a much more important state in the production of beef and pork, just as it has already become in broilers and eggs, ranking first nation_ ally in broiler production and second in eggs. In summary, substantial changes in present educational patterns affecting agriculture will be necessary in the years ahead to keep pace with the dynamic changes which will occur in the state's agriculture during the next .15 years. 112 A UTOMAnON presents a challenge to all of us! In the 19th century the poet Robert Burns penned the following lines. But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane In proving foresight may be vain: The best laid schemes 0' mice an' men Gang aft agley ... By Ellis L. Scott, Ph.D. Still thou art blest, compar'd wi' me! The present only touchest thee: But, Och! I backward cast my e'e On prospects drear! An' forward, tho' I canna see, I guess an' fear! Automation in Georgia As we approach the advent of the 21st century, the trepidations about planning and forecasting expressed by the poet in the 1800's still command our attention. But plan we must-if we are to fulfill our responsibilities for the continuity and growth of our society. Therefore, we strive to improve our capabilities to lay schemes and anticipate the consequences of our decisions. In this spirit this paper is submitted. To begin this analysis we shall postulate several fundamental propositions concerning automation. Automation is a technology. For the purposes of this report it is important to distinguish between science and technology. Science is one form of knowledge, acquired in a manner we refer to as the scientific method. Technology, on the other hand, is knowledge applied, presumably to serve some human purpose or need. This distinction is relevant if we are to avoid certain confusion in discussing the educational and other social implications of automation as a technology. Vice-Admiral Hyman G. Rickover in a recent speech at the University of Georgia made these comments. Not everything hailed as progress contributes to happiness. It troubles me that 113 we are so easily pressured by purveyors of technology into pennitting so-called "progress" to alter our lives, without attempting to control it-as if technology were an irrepressible force of nature to which we must meekly submit. The difficulty, Admiral Rickover suggests, may lie in a confusion between science and technology. Science has to do with discovering the true facts and relationships of observable phenomena in nature . . . technology is tools, techniques, procedures . . . Science, being pure thought, harms no one . . . but technology is action and often potentially dangerous. In this distinction, so aptly phrased by Admiral Rickover, lies the challenge of automation, the way to better understand and apply the wealth of technology that is available and the necessity to apply It in the interest of society as a whole; the need to make the educational system more flexible in meeting a technological society's requirements; the challenge to plan in depth for the impact that increasing automation will have on business organization and the economic structure; the challenge to be imaginative in visualizing social changes that lie ahead and creating new social organizations and practices in harmony with these changes. Our concern with technology must consider elements of technology other than hardware. There is a tendency to think of automation and other technologies primarily in terms of machinery. The sophistication reflected in the design of computers and process control machinery tends to reinforce this preoccupation with hardware. This preoccupation ignores much that is critical to the understanding of the technology and its social implications. The non-hardware elements of a technology include personnel, organization structure, policies and procedures, training plans, and the like. In computer-based technology this software includes the computer programs designed and written to enable the system to function. The lack of concern with software elements and failure to consider carefully their implications for total performance have constituted one of the major prob. lems in the application of new technolo. gies. One response to this need to see the larger requirements in the effective ap. plication of a technology has been the development of a methodology called system engineering. The systems ap. proach stresses functional interrelation. ships of all component elements, includ. ing non-hardware elements; the manner whereby the totality functions to achieve explicit objectives; the nature of inputoutput relationships, and the whole system's relationships to the environment in which the system is embedded. It is therefore unwise to think of automation simply as a technology in which man is engineered out of the system and, thus, need not be considered as a critical element in the system. In automation, regardless of the changing role of man or his remoteness from operations, the concept of man-machine relationships remains a significant aspect of the technology. Many technologies exist side by side. Many technologies to serve diverse human purposes exist in this world. Some of these technologies are not commonly recognized as such. We are only now beginning to think in terms of educational, social, and economic technologies. The explicit recognition of these technologies will be necessary for effec- tive control of man's environment. We tend also to think only of advanced science-based technologies. But these are only part of the story. Not so many years ago our own agricultural technology was largely tradition-based rather than resting on a substructure of scientific knowledge. This non-science based agricultural technology is still common th;oughout the world. One of the major issues today is the reconciliation of these various technologies. Automation now challenges older methods! Automation takes many forms and has many definitions. It includes industrial process control, materials handling, services automation, paperwork automation, 114 and information-decision systems. Yet, our knowledge of how to successfully apply these varieties of automation may be hampered by prescientific conceptions of their essence and utility. There are strong emotional connotations associated with such terms as robot and mechanical brain. We lack relevant facts about automation. Our planning is inadequate, and new means for social control may be required. One result of the inadequacy of the planning is the gap between the existence of the technology and its application. This lag seems to be characteristic of any new technology, and its effects may include the loss of available benefits. The world has been thrilled by man's landing on the moon. Yet, rocket technology lay fallow for many years. The late Dr. Willy Ley pointed out that all essential components for the solid-fuel, V-2 type rocket existed in 1910, although the V-2 did not fly until 1944. Dr. Ley said that a somewhat simplified V-2 rocket could have been built in 1910 if somebody had the right idea to put existing ingredients into the right order. The conclusion drawn by Dr. Ley was: We now know at least 100 times as much as the engineers of the year 1910; we probably have all kinds of ingredients lying around - we now need the man who has the idea of putting these ingredients together in such a way that they make a superior spacecraft. Maybe the ingredients are in existence right now. The idea is not! At the sametime that the body of knowledge possessed by man has increased many fold-the foreseeable future has shrunk. Dr. Ley said that two decades ago the foreseeable future was 15 or 20 years; today it is five or six. One reason is that what happens in automation, for example, is not simply a function of the state-of-the-art but depends on social, economic, and educational phenomena and the "fall-out" from other technologies. The transistor developed in the electronics field proved invaluable to space scientists. Automation must deal not only with questions of technical feasibility, but with questions of economics and of poli- tics and with psychological considera- tions. Applications to large systems are limited by the present state of systems theory. Applications are limited by costs and requirements to justify new invest- ments. In many cases application is limited by a lack of understanding of the process that is to be controlled or auto- mated. It is limited by the rate of social change-acceptance of ideas, acceptance of different ways of doing things. New technology raises many issues, and it may take other technologies to re- solve them. With the emergence and de- velopment of new technologies, problems and issues arise, many of them unanti- cipated, which stimulate the development of other technologies to cope with these problems and issues. Dr. Frederick L. Bates has stated: Technology consists of a system of strategies and tactics for producing desired end products through the use of human action augmented by tools and machines. Givel1 this definition, it is apparent that all areas of life involve technologies. There are, therefore, educational technologies, religious technologies, recreational technologies, technologies for family life as well as those normally thought of in the area of economic production, consumption and distribution. Automation must be viewed as part of this larger system of technology. Therefore, automation as a process must be viewed as being imbedded in a larger process of technological change.... The automation process, which consists in the changeover in technology from the use of man-operated to self-operated or computer machine systems is a part of the larger social change process which has been going on in human society since its very inception. This social change process is a natural phenomenon which results from the operation of systems of interrelated causes or influences. The following sections describe the nature of automation, survey its current and projected status, and attempt to draw out some of the implications of automa- tion for society-with special reference to education. 115 T HIGH INCO AC P ............ 0\ .j :SS I PROCESS COMPUTERS Computers Data Logging Digital Recording Dato Acquisition Core Memory Data Reduction Analog to Digital Conversion Digital to Analog Conversion MATERIAL ACCOUNTING -Industrial Scoles Retail Scoles Automatic Prepackaging Checkweighing Botching Data Processing PROCESS INSTRUMENTA TION Sensors Transducers Tachometers ~ Moisture Control Position Control Density Control Vibration Control Flow Control Nuclear Absorption Lazers INCOMING RAW MATERIALS OUTGOING FINISHED PRODUCTS , HIGH VOL TAGE AND D1STRI BUTION CONTROL Circuit Breakers Transformers Starters ~ Relays Protection Devices Emergency power Suppl ies ~ Disconnect Devices PROCESS DRI VE CONTROL Rectifiers Inverters Digital Drive Control Operator's Controls Control Panel s ELECTRICAL COMPONENTS Resi stors Capocitors Potentiometers Push Buttons Semi -Conductors Integrated Circuits I I ~ PRIME MOVERS A-C Motors (fractional & integral H.P.) D-C Motors (fractional & integral H.P.) Gearmotors Mechanical ADJ. Speed Dri ves Electrical ADJ. Speed Drives Servo Motors t SPECIAL PURPOSE PRIME MOVERS Linear Motors Stepping Motors Sub-Fractionol Motors for Battery Operotion High Frequency Motors MECHANICAL POWER TRANSMISSION Couplings Chains & Sprockets V-Belts & Sheaves ~ Reducers Mounted Bearings Transmissions t MECHANICAL POWER TRANSMISSION COMPONENTS Unmounted Bearings Chains Brakes Couplings Clutches ... Process Courtesy: Reliance Electric Company L---- j What Is Automation? "The new thing which automation brings is that for some interval machines can fun~,tion without direct human control. -Theodore A. Smith, RCA There are many forms of automation and the term has many definitions. As with many areas of inquiry these days, the study of automation requires a high toler- ance for ambiguity. Although the ante- cedents of automation go back many centuries and as with nearly everything else it can be traced to biblical times, the term as now conceptualized is relatively new. In 1947 the Ford Motor Company announced the organization of an "Auto- mation" department in the manufac- turing engineering division. D. S. Harder, than vice president for manufacturing, had coined the term to describe the link- ing of successive machines by automatic work transfer and positioning devices. This process has since become known as Detroit-type automation. George Terborgh of the Machinery and Allied Products Institute says that the term caught on and the result was a confusion of tongues rivaling the Tower of Babel. In his book, The Automation Hysteria, Terbough reports: "Searching for the meaning of automation is like nailing jelly to a wall." A good source of definitions is Bright's compilation from testimony at the 1955 Congressional hearings. In a general way, the tenn automation represents technological change which is surely nothing new. Automation is not essential1y different from the process of improving methods of production which has been going on throughout human history. Automation may be defined as relegation to a machine of operations previously performed manual1y. Automation is not a revolutionary technique but a continuation of our progress in mechanization. We define automation as the automatic handling of parts between progressive production processes. For practical purposes . . . we define automation as continuous automatic production, largely in the sense of linking together already highly mechanized individual operations. It is a way of work based on the concept of continuous flow, rather than processing by intermittant batches of work. We are beginning to look at our industrial processes as complete, integrated systems from the introduction of the raw material until the completion of the final product. ... One way of defining automation is to say that it is a means of organizing or control1ing production processes. Automation can be said to be any continuous and integrated operation of a rationalized production system which uses electronic or other equipment to regulate and coordinate the quality and quantity of production. When I speak of automation I am referring to the use of mechanical and electronic devices to regulate and control the operation of machines. It represents something radical1y different from the mere extension of mechanization. It is a new technology, arising from electronics and electrical engineering. The essential feature of this new step in mechanization (automation) is the application of electronics to the control of mechanical and chemical processes. The mechanical brain or electronic computer is the central feature of this development. One could elaborate on the above list, but resolution of the definition problem is not one of the objectives of this paper. Nevertheless, key terms stand out in the definitions examined, improved methods, mechanization of manual operations, progressive process, continuous flow, in- tegrated systems, organization and con- trol, rationalized production, regulation and coordination" electronics, mechani- cal and electronic brains. John Diebold, whose name is also assO- ciated with the coinage of the term auto- mation, has made this observation. As it has developed in the United States, automation takes many forms and can be classified in several ways. One such classification is as follows Computers automatic handling of information by use of electronic systems "Detroit" Automation integration of machines linking together, by means of automatic transfer devices of the machines of production Process Control Systems computer and integrated control systems for operation of process (oil, chemical, atomic) plants Numerical Control the use of tape and 117 other automatic control devices to direct operation of machines and machine sys- tems. Why do firms automate? Diebold states a number of reasons. Our experience has shown that the mo- tivations for automating have been very diverse. Apart from the fact many con- sidered it a band wagon on which they should climb, the overriding factors dic- tating a de~ision to automate usually were, and stIll are, (1) to cut production costs; (2) (3) to do to reduce labor existing things fraesqtueirre(m4e)ntts~' do things not possible before; (5) to in- crease productivity: (6) to aid in deci- sion-making by providing fuller and faster information. One representation of the automation process is shown in Figure 1, at the end of this section. The diagram exposes the contents of the automation "black box" as conceived by a firm specialiing in automation. It is informative also to take note of specific techniques and methods now em- ployed in automation applications. C. English Evanson, President of TAB En- gineers in Chicago, has identified a rep- resentative number of these which have cropped up in the past 20 years or so. The magnetic wire of World War II has become today's magnetic tape with many applications. Both analog and digital computers have been applied extensively to the con- trol of processes and machinery. Some- times these are linked together as hy- brids. The era of solid state circuitry is fully with us, so that computers can be larger in function and smaller in size with little problem of heat. Lasers are used for machining. to balance rotors. measure distances, and accurately guide tunneling machines underground. Computerized microwave and mod- ulated light surveying equipment had begun to replace the standard transit on our highway program, only to be replaced by the Laser Transit. The science of holography has been founded. Now we have three dimension- al printing, and three-dimensional televi- sion may be next. Small and versatile television carn. eras have extensive applications in corn. ?inati~n ,:ith remote controls. Television IS an IndIspensable part of control sys_ tems in many plants. . Proxi~ity switches have markedly Improved In speed of response and ac. cu~acy. Also added is the capacitive sWItch, the inducive switch and the infra_ red detector. These can detect the presence or position of an object from .001 inch to several inches away. Fluidics has circumvented some of the problems of electronic circuits FI~idics now allows equivalent logic cir~ CUltS to be placed in magnetic and electric fields or in explosive areas impractical for electronic circuitry. Feedback circuits are much more sophisticated, producing a running record of the system's performance. Raw materials have changed, an explosion of plastics with manifold properties. These materials have been a boon to automation designers. Papers todRY have qualities undreamed of a generation ago. The same can be said for glass and ceramics. In the metals field new alloys. new combinations. new shapes, powdered metals. are now at the designer's command. Lubricants are made for everv temperature, condition, and expected life of equipment. Plug-in components and subassemblies have enhanced equipment maintenance. Freeing of fresh and cooked foods has founded a whole new industry. Another boost will corne with the introduct!on of cryogenics to industry. ConventIOnal freezing is too slow for the fishing industr~ and pulpy food items ~uch as tomatoes. Faster cryogenic freezIng opens up new applications. Micro-wave energy is an outgrowth of radar of World War II. It will have ~n impact .on industry where quick drymg or heatmg is required. In the metals field, electrical discharge machining, electric chemical 118 machining and electron beam machining have emerged. Laser welding of small parts, ultrasonic cleaning, welding, and inspection and Electro-magnetic forming are new processes. In the machine shop the greatest change has been N/C, numerical control of machining. Transport means, available 20 years ago, have been integrated with equipment as a system these days. This integration with equipment, the increase in standard units, and the development of controlled conveying systems are the most marked advancements in the materials handling field. Materials handling outside the plant includes new uses for pipelines, such as slurries, to move granular materials. Overland conveyors can move excavated material, construction material, coal, and fill over long distances. Vibratory bowls have been developed for storage, cleaning, and feeding units. Magnetic belts have been developed to separate ferrous items, to convey and to also carry magnetic instructions along with the loads. Floor carts have become radio controlled or magnetically controlIed by lines on the floor. A whole new line of loaders, stockers, and line storage equipment has been developed. Air glide has been developed to allow a man to move about a pallet load of a ton easily. The above developments noted by Evanson represent some of the items now available to the automation designer. His field has become even more stimulating and exciting. Evanson has been led to conclude: The staggering impact of these examples is really how short the lead-time has become for a theory to emerge from a laboratory and be installed in practical use. Before the advent of automation, it usually required about twenty years for a theory to be put to productive work in industry. This length of time is fast decreasing to about two years. The scary implication of this is that if one has a three year program under development it could be partly or completely obsolete by the time the project is installed. However, a more realistic reaction is to recognize that change is with us and to constantly maintain review points both during the project and also after it is installed. There may be other scary implications of Evanson's statement about the re- duced lead-time in technology. What does it mean in terms of the discrepancy between the high-technology and low technology nations of the world? What wilI be the effect of this change on our social institutions? Bates has reminded us of the elonga- tion of technology. At this point in time, technology could be described as extremely elongated. By elongated, we mean that at one extreme are technologies based on the operation of the human organism as a thinking and acting mechanism unaided at times by even simple tools. At the other extreme, we have in existence systems of production which combine sophisticated computers with intricate systems of machines. Even in the most advanced society, this statement holds true. When we view the large picture of the entire world of man, technology becomes even more elongated stretching from the most primitive to the most modern. . .. In most of the world, family life, religion, education, agricultural production, government, and recreation, and for the most part, the production of goods and services are carried on with a pre-mechanized or pre-machine technology. We must recognize, therefore, that by viewing man from a world perspective there exist side by side the most primitive and the most sophisticated technological schemes. One of the questions that needs to be answered is whether there shall ever be a stage reached at which this elongation of technology will be reduced, and most or all of human productive activities will be carried on through the utilization of self-operated machinery. Current Status of Automation Considering the current state-of-the-art, one is amazed that our society is not more automated than it is. Experts seem to agree that technology can automate any manufacturing process an industrial- ist desires. The capabilities in agriculture and agri-business, forestry, and transpor- 119 tation are likewise impressive. The capabilities of computer hardware have always kept well ahead of our abili~ies to exploit them. But, then, automatIOn as an explicit concept is only about t~o decades old; and, until recently, thIS was about par for the introduction of a new techno!ogy. The gap between the availability of a technology and its application seems to be narrowing. Indeed, the gap itself is becoming an object of intensive study. The lag appears to be related to factors such as the resistance to change by both labor and management, failure to assemble components and equipment into systems, and cost considerations. On the other hand, as one looks around in Georgia one cannot help but be impressed by the extent to which automation is already applied. Every type of enterprise has been affected to a significant degree. Furthermore, some of the applications in Georgia can be ranked among the most sophisticated to be found anywhere. In the textile industry Jefferson Mills at Jefferson, Ga., is an outstanding example. This firm's president, Morris Bryan, Jr., has been personally responsible for this outstanding example of automation in Georgia. Jefferson Mills did more than simply install new machinesthe firm rationalized the complete production process, eliminating or consolidating many of the steps involved. The process of innovation and improvement is only part of the story. The design extends to the physical plant, organization structure, and management practices. From a designer's point of view it may be described as a classic systems effort of great elegance and beauty. Jefferson Mills' Southworth Division is a 5 million dollar plant which has been called the world's most modern textile plant. The production process in the push-button mill reduces the steps in producfon from 17 to six, according to published reports. Six new types of machines were developed for the plant. According to Business Week, the Georgia Mill uses 50 employees in an operation usually requiring 150 to 200 workers. In agriculture and agri-business the ap. plications have been manifold, reflecting a dramatic reduction in the production labor force but also stimulating mUch new industry in Georgia. The develop_ ment of improved plant varieties has stimulated increased efforts in mechani_ zation and automation. Changes in culti. vation practices and harvesting have also made feasible increased mechanization. One automated device for grading and sorting tomatoes operates on a hydraulic principle utilizing the differences in specific-gravity of ripe, green and intermedi. ate degrees of maturity of this vegetable. Automated feeding of chickens and livestock has made possible large-scale enterprises in Georgia. Almost everyone in the state is aware of these developments. In short, the adaptation of mechanization and automation to agricultral. practices has been phenomenal. Everything seems to be done for the convenience of the machine. Those who remember how things were done a few years ago may have very few recollections of adaptations made for the convenience of man. Forestry and forest product industries represent another major area for automation applications in Georgia. Telfair Timber Company can be cited as an example in pulpwood. Telfair built a slasher in 1965 for its yard in Milan. A tree is cut and hauled in three lengths to the slasher. The slasher cuts the trees into 5.3 inch lengths for loading on rail cars. Two slashers do the work of eight men in the woods. In 1968 four crews produced the same amount of wood that 10 crews did in 1962. Forestry operations, like agriculture, are becoming highly rationalized, scientific operations so that automation systems can be effectively employed. Brick making is another example. Merry Brothers Brick and Tile Company in Augusta is engaged in a multi-million dollar expansion of its brick producing facilities. A new fully-automated unit is said to have a capacity of 200,000 bricks a day. 120 printing and publishing is another Georgia industry in which automation has made significant inroads. The Athens Banner-Herald is produced through one of the nation's most technologicallyadvanced newspaper production operations. When a Banner-Herald reporter sits down at the typewriter to hunt-andpeck, the typewriter produces a punched paper tape. This tape is input into the computer which justifies the lines, hyphenates the words at the end of a line and outputs another tape. This second tape is fed into a photon machine which produces columns of type on photographic paper at very high speeds. These are passed into page formats, made into plates, and run off on high-speed offset presses. Not a linotype machine or stick of type in the place! By the time this article is published new applications will no doubt be planned if not already im- plemented. The banking and financial community has a major stake in automation, a fact of which most bankers seem aware. The credit card is fast moving us into the checklist society, some say. Tellers in Atlanta banks talk to computers with keyboard devices. And the computers talk back in spoken English, providing information on customer accounts! Customers at Peabody and Co., to cite another example, can punch a few buttons and instantly obtain about 12 items of information on any stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The recent paperwork fiasco on Wall Street is also evidence of the push toward automation in the world of finance. The communications industry is also becoming highly automated. Southern Bell shares in the Bell System's huge computerized communication's network. This network not only provides switching capabilities but can accommodate message queues, so that if the line is busy the message can be stored and transmitted later. Transportation is another major area where automation is having its impact. Delta Air Lines' Deltamatic system for airline reservations is representative of these applications. The computerized information system of the Southern Railway System, located in Atlanta, has made the operation of that complex of railroads a mQdel for the nation. Detailed and updated information on all shipments and cars is available at all times. Southern's customers, the shippers, have direct access to the system and can interrogate it about the status of their shipments. One of Southern's most intriguing applications is the system of sensing devices which detect hot boxes on rail cars. When a train with a hot box passes one of these devices a message is generated and transmitted through the system so that it is received very soon by the engineer of the train by telephone. The message tells him that he has a hot box on his train, third car back, rear wheel, right-hand side! For the highway traveler, Holidex and similar computerized reservation systems assure him of overnight accommodations. The paper making process is highly automated today with extremely sensitive controls over a host of conditions in the manufacturing process. Petroleum refining, pipeline transportation is frequently regarded as one of the most highly automated industries. Lockheed's lnterloc management information system does many things, including the automatic preparation of manuals which accompany Lockheed products shipped to customers. Public systems, such as police and law enforcement agencies, have information systems in operation or under development in Georgia. There are also interesting new applications in the medical and public health fields. Patient's data in hospitals may be acquired from automated sensing systems and processed through computers and displayed to doctors, nurses, and other hospital personnel. One of the prominent automation success stories in Georgia is that of the Southwire Company at Carrollton and its president, Roy Richards. According to the New York Times, Mr. Richards 121 has built Southwire into the largest private producer of aluminum and copper rod, wire, and cable in the United States. And Southwire has lead some of the giants of the industry in automating the production of aluminum and copper rod. Southwire's lead in automation won the attention of the Western Electric Company, which joined with the Georgia Company to adapt its continuous aluminum method to copper. In 1963 Western Electric and Southwire had developed such a machine. Southwire now designs, installs, and starts operations of these continuous systems for other manufacturers. The construction industry is beginning to experience the influence of automation. The success of mobile housing is attributed by some observers to constraints on technological progress in conventional housing. The above illustrations are intended to convey a sense of the status of automation in Georgia today-its nature and scope across many areas of business, commerce, industry, and government. Unfortunately, we do not have an "automation barometer" to provide in statistical format a profile of automation in Georgia. The Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of Georgia hopes to develop one. It should be clear from the preceding examples that automation is a well-established phenomenon in Georgia today. The Next Fifteen Years To use Ley's terminology, the year 1985 is beyond the foreseeable future as that term was used 20 years ago when Ley coined it. Conventional extrapolation methods for forecasting technological developments are useful for short periods -say five years. Beyond that span of time we need new methods for technological forecasting, and these, in fact, are being developed as the obvious need for long-range planning becomes more apparent in business, industry, and government. Perhaps one of the things we can hope for by 1985 will be effective sys- tems for long-range technological, eco. nomic, and social forecasting. One way of looking to the future is to look back for a comparable period of time and trace the developments in the intervening years. In 1955, for example very few electronic computers were in: stalled outside government and educa. tional Rand D centers. Today there are more than 60,000 computers installed in the United States and half again that many more on order. In 1955 there were few persons who programmed computers or served as systems analysts. In 1970 these are flourishing occupational fields and persons so trained are in great de. mand. Another way to seek out the future is to seek out incipient developments in today's society and to forecast that these now uncommon practices will be wide. spread in 15 years or so. Automation at Jefferson Mills and elsewhere in the tex tile industry can be expected to be typical of the textile industry in 1985. Automation as a concept of 20 years' duration seems to be emerging from its em bryonic stage to full development. Automation may be said to be an idea whose time has come. Ideas tend to mature sooner these days, and the basis for technological growth doubles every 20 years. Automation in our era has come of age along with two powerful allies, systems theory and systems engineering. Exploration of our underwater resources will be far advanced by 1985. It is an activity in which Georgia has a great interest. Our oceanographic research is now proving out methods of staying under water at considerable depths, two or three miles; and mining and drilling far out to sea will be underway in 1985. Electrofishing may then be a popular method of harvesting fish very inexpensively. The fish catch will, of course, be processed automatically. The Japanese and the Russians are already well along on this. Inland water resources will be similarly exploited. Substantial industrial and governmental research and development facilities will be located in the area to support these activities. 122 In the production of 1985 machine parts, a number of new machining concepts will be employed. One method will be to use small computers to operate a single machine. Another approach will be to control batteries of individual machines from a single remote computer. A third approach will be computer control of transfer lines between maehines. Another method will be bateh machining _groupS of machines linked by a conveyor and controlled by a computer. The methods represent a form of automation with a high degree of versatility. Basic elements of this versatility include these assets, the systems will accept families of parts in odd lots and random mix; the machines will be linked by automated material handling equipment; the computer will keep track of incoming parts and direct them to the approrpriate work stations. The computer will set schedules, control production cycles, select tools, and monitor main- tenance. These batch manufacturing systems of 1985 will then be conventional systems. Even newer plants will have automatic assembly, automatic material handling, and automatie packaging. Test and inspection will be automated, of course. Total plant output will be at the command of the computer in the automated factory. It was two years ago, in 1967, that computers ran only 400 processing plants from refineries to paper rr;ills to steel rolling plants. The computer got its first blue-collar job back in 1959 at Texaco's Port Arthur refinery. By 1967 there were also 13,000 numerically controlled machine tools used by industrial maehine makers and aircraft companies in the U.S. The integration of computers and numerically-controlled tools in the 1970's will be highlight of what has been called the second industrial revolutionintroduction of the computer-controlled factory. Electronics and aircraft manufacturers will probably lead the waytwo of the leaders being Boeing and IBM. To achieve full electronic control of metal cutting from engineer's idea to inspection of the finished product requires overcoming one major obstacle. A way has to be found to modify the computer's set of rigid instructions to account for expansion of metal during the cutting. To do this, adaptive control is being developed with sensing tools and other devices. Cincinnati Milling Machine Company began development of adaptive control in the 1960s. By 1985 it will become truly the thinking machine and will have many applications. Most automobiles in 1985 will have adaptive control in their brake systems. Aircraft flight control systems in 1985 must be adaptive, as human reaction time is simply too slow for projected aircraft and traffic patterns. Adaptive control, and that is a key phrase, will also be extensively used in optical devices. Earth-orbiting telescopes will use them. These telescopes will be 20 feet in diameter and will operate in a zero-gravity environment with added thermal strains from sun and shadow. Adaptive logic controls will be rather commonplace in 1985-not only in production but in many other fields of application. A number of adaptive control concepts will be employed. The major varieties will be on-line feedback, pre- determined logic, on-line optimization, and self-organizing systems. Some of these systems may be bionic systems modeled from control systems of living creatures. They will include feed-forward as well as feedback features. They will be on-line and real-time. Pattern recognition capabilities will be well established. Self-organizing controllers will not suffer the handicaps of the old-fashioned, pre-programmed computers. By 1985 these should provide an elementary form of artificial intelligence, wherein nonliving matter acquires some of the responses and qualities of living intellect. Artificial intelligence has been a subject of intensive scientific study through the 1960's. Functional elements of these adaptive control systems will have many charac- 123 teristics. Sensors now constitute the largest segment of the current process control market. In 1985 sensors will be able to provide measurement of properties of materials being processed, optical properties, dimensions, surface finish, metallurgical characteristics, chemical composition, and molecular structure. Sensors will provide flow measurement, noncontact measurements of moving materials, and increased reliability in measure of temperature, pressure and flow. The use of control valves and actuators will be extensive in remote operation and automatic sequencing. Recorders and indicators will have changed so that many variables can be read from a single indicator. This will demand from operators more sophisticated monitoring techniques than visual observation. Other forms data acquisition than instrumentation will be widely utilized in 1985. Many of these devices will be linked to digital computers for accounting and purposes other than on-line control; a major use will be in management decision-making and planning. The optimizing methods of process control will have been also enlarged and extended to management. Data networks of various kinds should be quite common in Georgia in 1985, serving industry, education, government, and public agencies of many kinds. These networks, similar to today's telephone system, will carry digital data transmitted to and from computers and between computers. Television networks will link school systems. Libraries will utilize facsimile transmission facilities. It will be difficult to overestimate the magnitude of the impact of the computer on all phases of life in Georgia in 1985. As the computer-utility concept comes into fruition the computer wiII be as easily available to all as a telephone is today. EDP applications will apply to every kind of enterprise, public and private. The professions including medicine and the law, will also be profoundly af- fected by the computer. The year 1985 will see the coming of age of management information systems utilizing large-scale and very fast compu. ters. Today's computers operate in nano. seconds, billionths of a second. In 1985 we may well be in the pico-second era with our computers performing arith. metic functions in trillionths of a second. Managers and administrators of 1985 will all be deeply involved in the use of computers. By 1985 computers will be well adapted to the natural languages of man. Terminals connected to the computer will be on every manager's desk. These will accommodate graphic and audio inputs and outputs. Every home that has a touch-tone phone will have a computer input device, and the housewife of 1985 will use it as such. Her inputs to the supermarket will originate from the food preparation center in her home a unit once known as the kitchen). Every business operation, large and small, wilI be utilizing the computer in some fashion. The computer will have such an effect on business that we will not be doing business as we are today. These computer systems will be used to support day-today operations and the flow of information for management control purposes and for management decision-making and long-range planning. In fact, by 1985 much of the decision-making may be programmed and automated. The computer-based information system of 1985 will provide many kinds of environmental feedback on how the total business is operating, including information on customers' behavior. It will operate in a closed-loop fashion and will take corrective action to adjust the business to environmental conditions. The system will tie in all the persons in the organization-on-line! It will provide updating of profiles on the information needs of all persons in the organization. This type of system as envisioned by Earl C. Joseph of UNIVAC will . . . allow the user to question the system by asking, 'what happens if I do this?' The 'what if' requires a powerful programming system to back it up. The computer needs to run a simulation of the total operation of the company, in- 124 eluding the customers. To illustrate how these systems work, I would like to set up a hypothetical example. Suppose I am the manager and put into the computer my PERT updating information, (PERT is a planning tool that allows the computer to determine whether I will meet my schedule. The information I put in is my best guess of where I am and how long it will take me to do certain items.) If I put in my current input this week and the computer runs the analysis program and determines I am going to have 13 weeks negative slack, I am going to miss my schedule by almost three months! If I am working on a six-month project, three months late is pretty bad -what does the computer do? It calls me up on the telephone and makes me painfully aware of this fact. Next week . . . instead of calling me up and telling me that I am going to be late, the computer also calls my boss. You can see how the computer is starting to control its environment! The management information systems of 1985 will have very large-scale ran- dom access memory devices. These sys- tems will require file protection and security, many levels of electronic locks and keys. Input-output devices will be very esoteric by today's standards; the terminal of 1985 will be an intelligent terminal and will do many of the things that computers now do. New communications systems of 1985 may truly get us out of the Gutenberg rut, as Marshall McLuhan might like to view it. By 1985 some observers say we will have gone to paperless books. Books will be edited by computers and revised electronically. The computer will correct spelling, take out redundant material, point out omissions and inconsistencies, and suggest fresh ideas. The book will go to a publisher who will distribute it electronically. The abstract of the book will be displayed on the console on the reader's desk-perhaps by picture-phone. Mr. Joseph of UNIVAC also has this to say Those of us working in the computerized management information system field are predicting that such systems will evolve and come into mass use by executives. We further predict that those managers, companies, politicians, and governments who do not use such systems by 1975 or 1980 will simply not be able to compete in a society which does. In 1985 we can expect that automation technology will be nearly double what it is today. Analysts generally say that the rate of growth of technology is exponential, doubling about every 20 years. The benefits and ill effects of technology also seem to grow at an exponential rate. One important fact of 1985 is that technology will be predominantly of the new technology variety. Charles B. Fisher, president of Canada's Redio Engi- neering Products draws a sharp distinction between the old technology and the new. The older is folk-technology, based on manual skills, long experience, trained judgement, and painstaking learning. This is what we mean when we talk of craftsmanship today. It is rapidly and properly disappearing in industrialized societies, and will soon survive in these societies only as rather conscious handicraft, art, recreation, and sports. Modern technology. Fisher says, depends on an entirely different approach-the application of scientific knowledge and logical analysis to each problem. Thus the electronics expert feels free to offer solutions to steel-making problems, the analysts of weapons systems are sought to resolve problems of urban renewal and mass transportation. The younger generation of engineers and scientists have never learned the folktechnology of their elders, nor do they need to. We are now in a period of transition between the two technologies. By 1985, the newer science-based technology will be in full flower with automation as one of its signal achievements. The technology gap in Georgia, between the old and the new, will have narrowed-the elongation of technology in our state will have shortened. Some of us may in 1985 look back occasionally with nostalgia to the tranquility of the 1960s. Implications Given the state of our present knowledge about how technology affects society, the 125 best we can do is to forecast probable developments and anticipate some of the many issues that seem likely to accompany them. This section reflects the views and opinions concerning the educational implications of automation expressed by participants at the 1969 Georgia-Reliance Symposium on Automation and Society held at the University of Georgia. The participants were experienced and knowledgeable persons from all parts of the nation, representing education, government, industry, and the scientific community. A major concern of the Symposium was education and its relationships to automation. The stage for the panel discussions on automation and education was set by Dr. Grant Venn of the U.S. Office of Education. Dr. Venn's emphasis was placed on how a nation must change its educational system to prepare individuals to control and live more effectively in a technological society. A secondary interest in automation was its application to help individuals learn more effectively. Education as a process viewed from the viewpoint of the school as its dominant mechanism was seen to face the critical question of change. Can the school at all levels of instruction adapt effectively to serve the needs of a rapidly changing technology in a relatively stable society? How can the educational establishment monitor changes in the environment, assess the implications of these changes, and modify the educational structure to cope with them? Is the school simply an adaptive mechanism, or is its role more dynamic? Noting s'Jme things which have happened in our society since the educational system was established, Dr. Venn enumerated these points. The nation's work force can no longer ,absorb large numbers of uneducated. Education has become the bridge between the individual and a role in society. Large segments of our people find themselves locked out of our culture because of youth, illiteracy, or old age. The myth that educational quality is the ability to select students "out" is no longer believed. The total education gained in the "sYStem" is inadequate for an adult role because things are changing so rapidly. The educational disparity between SOme people and some parts of the country is so great as to cause permanent inequality. It is generally recognized that all learning does not take place in the education_ al system. Our present educational system does not serve the poor, the inner city or minority groups, and those who need education most. Dr. Venn concluded that in an auto- mated society education is a necessity for everyone, a fact which simply wasn't true three decades ago. From these theses and this conclusion, the four panels con- secutively addressed the issues and questions of education as it relates to automation. A large segment of the general public has historically viewed education as a selecting out process-those who survived the course were rewarded with wealth and the benefits of non-material cultural values. The system had established credibility. It was a channel to affluence and the good life. The general publi~ stilI perceives education as doing a baSIcally good job-but questions are being asked. With the new technology, the new society, what kind of role or function must the school play? What should it be asked to do and expected to do? What wasn't necessary, or profitable to do, a few decades ago may now be necessary. The question must be resolved as to the responsibilities of schools in the total educational process. Will the technical school serve the needs of an auto- ma!ed society adequately if the larger society does not serve the educational role it once provided for technical training? There are things that people don't learn in schools. If this training is not provided now outside the school, what must the school's response be? One of the present aims of the schools is how to teach the so-called disadvantaged. Fifty years ago kids were dropping out of school all along the line from the 126 first grade to go to work. Unskilled labor was available and didn't require schooling; now these kids can't get work. Very feW jobs are available today which do not require some degree of literacy. There is a serious lack in the educational system, in contrast for example, to industry where there are motivational and incentive guidelines for profitability and efficiency of operation for expansion of the enterprise. The changing character of the labor force places much greater emphasis upon intellectual skills and social skills and less upon physical strength and manual dexterity. One consequence has been new opportunities for women in the labor force. In the decade of the '50s, half the new jobs were taken by women! Part of the problem then from the point of view of boys from working class families is that their image of the male occupation as something involving physical strength and manual dexterity is on the way out; it is being taken over by the machines. Their image of female work is intellectual and social. For children of middle-class families this is not a handicap. They see their fathers who are in intellectual occupations, sales, or areas using social skills. So again we have the problem of shifting from one generation to another. How much do we really know about the nature of the shift-and the value of skills, attiudes, and behavior that produce a skill? We are now at the point for the first time in the history of man that every man must have the basic skills of learning. This means communication skills, verbal skills, and the capability to enable every man to continue to learn and relearn throughout life. This is a different kind of thing than in the past. The school establishment is at least giving lip service to the concept. Learning how to learn has become an important objective in education. In material production we lean heavily upon individual choices and the free market; now we are able to produce and distribute goods so that at last estimate in 1967 we used only 40 percent of our labor force to produce and distribute material goods and 60 percent for nonmaterial things such as education, health services, recreation, social services, engineering and science, accounting and management. If this kind of change takes place, isn't it reasonable to expect that the nature of human individual choice will largely determine the direction enterprises will go? If so, we must ask what kinds of things people will want from an affluent society-now that they can afford to pay for things other than material goods. Right now it seems they want more health services, more education services, more recreation. If this trend continues, what kinds of people will be required to provide these services and what sort of education should they get? The kinds of analyses being made by scientists in the think-tanks suggest more and more consideration be given to cooperative education - between schools and industry - coordinating the work between them to facilitate the entry of people into the work force. Another view is to hold the place of the drop-out in case he wishes to return and to facilitate his re-entry into the school. Also considered is the notion of pacing and spacing in the educational program to better serve individual needs and interests. We have a tendency in our society to place the lowest social value on the things that are most essential. For example, a food service worker has little social status-yet we all have to eat. One company took one of its food service workers, sent him to a culinary institute in New York to go through one of their summer training programs. He came back a completely revitalized person. He wears his chef's hat at a little more rakish angle than ever before. This nation has not dealt with the fact that many skills which are vitally needed in our society are not looked upon as proper skills for which people should aspire, we've been snobbish about it and we turned our backs on the whole problem. Automa- 127 tion in the kitchen and the automation of the pre-preparation of food may be one solution, but automation in the serving of food may not be. Why should education in our society be restricted to a single point on the occupational spectrum-whether it is the low end or the high end? If automation does indeed mean more free time for individuals, then why can't we develop additional skills? Perhaps the intellectual can do manual work as well if he enjoys tinkering with a motor. Individuals might be trained for a dual role. They could then work six months each year in one occupational role and the other six months in some totally different activity. There is a fallacy that because the hours of manufacturing are lessening the total working force hours are lessening. As people move into nursing and teaching and so on, their work hours do not decrease. Studies show that in typical communities the number of hours worked per week by the labor force hasn't changed in 20 years. Although working hours may be lessening in manufacturing industries, the shift to services has offset this trend in the society at large. Even in areas where the work week does decrease, there is a point at which workers start moonlighting. Nevertheless, increased automation will bring about increased leisure in some fashion. Increased leisure must necessarily have educational implications. These implications are a concern of adult education. Ironically, the majority of the states in the country right now, through statutes or constitutional provisions, prohibit the expenditure of funds for the education of persons over 21 years of age. In these states, adult programs must be self-supporting. Those persons who need the education most have to overcome an economic barrier which makes it more difficult for them than for others. Perhaps education can be applied to professionalize low status occupations in the production and service industries. In agriculture, for example, we have an industry that has had an enormous pro- ductivity increase through the mechani. zation and rationalization of its proce. dures, with a tremendous reduction in. the labor force. Yet much of that labor force which remains as hired workers is poorly trained and has the problem of low status. Still, the hired farm worker is a member of one of the vital occupa_ tions; he is one whose services are in great demand. It is possible to train farm workers, to professionalize their occupa. tion so that it becomes more attractive to the worker and more dependable to the employer. Some of the stigmas associated with these occupations are governmentally imposed; for example, these workers do not qualify for collective bar. gaining, do not qualify for workman's compensation, were not protected by minimum wages until recently. Perhaps we are talking about a new type of farm worker. The facilities to train this man and the public willingness to train him are often not there. There are many cultural barriers to this type of training, race relations being one of the major impediments. There is the fear that large scale training of farm workers will lead them to demand more pay and lead them off the farm into other occupations. Two kinds of questions are raised. One has to do with what technology generates or demands from education for people who have to work with it. The other question is associated with occupational roles. We have millions of persons in this society who lack education, and the gap between these people and their ability to become involved and to participate in the on-going work of society as functioning individuals is becoming greater and greater. It appears that more and more money will have to be spent for remedial and corrective measures at a very severe level of difficulty. The society has not yet been willing to invest enough money in terms of a transitional kind of preventive program. We must fit together the educational facilities and programs with the consumer of the educational product-business and 128 Jt,noerdnbuse.sgTtm.rhyI.S-toinmgaaeyt cooperative arrangement to some of these probbe the pattern a decade from now. In the meantime in the schools, we have many of our young people who cannot see the school program as re- levant to what they want. The schools in this present condition arc not seen as viable vehicles for these people to be- come effective individuals. Why can't we build into our schools more variety right now? This is necessary to provide the re- quired options. One recent study indicated that the children of colIege-educated parents knew less about the occupational options. open to them than did the children of parents who had not been to colIege. The general objective of the children of the colIege-educated is to get to colIege. But, in terms of career concepts and the adult role, these children arc narrow and uninformed. Pressures are evolving from many groups to change the patterns in our schools. We stilI have the normal curve. Those institutions listed as great educa- tional institutions are those which have the highest degree of selecivity in the students they admit. Quality is often in- terpreted more in the selectivity of the institution than in how well it does whatever its objectives may be. Educa- tors tend to be sensitive about the educa- tional achievements of particular sys- tems, yet these data wiII be necessary if we are to systematicalIy assess the ef- fectiveness of educational enterprises. When it was first proposed years ago that there be information about public health, the doctors were all up in arms. It was said to be a reflectiDn on the community if a high incidence of vene- real disease was found-either a dirty community or bad doctors. However, when it was found that there was hook- worm in the South, that information helped to initiate a program for its era- dication. Today we need more informa- tion on the kinds of schools we have. One proposal offered was that schools be responsible for their dropouts-too many, and they lose accreditation. Another, that the schools be responsible for the student's entering directly into the work force, responsible for getting him a job in the same way they feel responsible for getting a student into college. Doing different things in the schools will create new methodologies. There will be various kinds of teaching games, programmed instruction, and closely paced methods of conditioned learning. Business and industry can lend significant support to the development of these methodologies. Schools may be expected to contract directly with industry for their development. The companies through their organizational ability have learned to be able to do things effectively where the education system docs not have tbe ability to move in quickly. There are such contracts with the Youth Corps, the Job Corps programs, and in some of the aircraft programs; perhaps Boeing's on-the-job training in the Tacoma-Seattle Complex has been the largest. There have been contracts with the steel worker's union and the steel companies on the new fast train run from Washington, D. C., to New York. However, there has been little contract work with children below the age of sixteen and this is an area of concern for companies like General Learning and IBM. The Scandinavian countries are taking a look at children's learning while receiving wages for so doing. The brightest kids may even be interested in medical training and even at that early age of twelve may work 10calIy with the physician. The fact today is that many of our children are economic liabilities. There is a need for them to become involved in real on-going things, such as participating in a training program at Reliance Electric Company or working with a local carpenter or the doctor. A skill can be a motivation, can develop self dignity and can open up perspectives on the occupational options available. Although automation may be inereas- 129 ing productivity in the manufacturing area, this is not so apparent with services. Services begin to price themselves up in the market, and skilled trades in the service sector become virtually unknown. In small towns if you want something done these days you may find that you have to do it yourself. So, while we are talking about training people for the service sector, must we not face up to the fact that there are occupations and services which are rapidly disappearing? This is true for the youngsters, and it is true for the older people. There are many service occupations into which retired persons might go-ticket takers, movie operators, jobs of this kind. Technology has either eliminated these jobs or else the workers have priced themselves out of jobs. How will the education apparatus we are seeking to design face up to this fact? There is an increase in the number of paraprofessionals in many areas, but in nursing there is a tremendous shortage of paraprofessionals. Certain services have been priced out of the market so society is training paraprofessionals for temporary service jobs. Because these paraprofessionals do not remain on the job, society is confronted with the never ending task of trying to recruit and train new paraprofessionals. It is doubtful that these entry jobs will ever lead to professional careers. One solution then to the problem of low level occupations is to make them entry positions in a career development pattern. We can establish another option pattern if we make paraprofessional work a training period which will lead upward in a career pattern rather than requiring four years of college for all professional level jobs. Some persons will be attracted to these paraprofessional positions which do offer mobility, and they will stay in these positions because they are able to realize their aspirations and dzvelop their skills. There are currently reputed to be somewhere between three and four mil- lion jobs unfilled because the skills are not available. More and more young people appear to have the desire to mOve into two-year and four-year college programs which do not meet the needs of society, even though these needs are projected 20 years in advance. How do we plan to fill these important positions which even automation will not eliminate, such positions for example, as the physician? What kinds of changes can we introduce into our schools to help meet these needs? Before much C2n be done there are certain institutional arrangements and legal restraints which must be faced up to. We are going to have to do something about the compulsory education laws; we are going to have to do something about the minimum wage laws; we are going to have to do something about the child labor laws! Our educational units-towns and counties-are archaic. We are just now by accident developing social, cultural, economic, and educational units that need to be defined in a different way. For example, New York City has more in common with Bergen County, New Jersey, and Bucks County, Pennsylvania, than it does with Buffalo. There are also ticklish questions of federal-state relationships. The state must share in problems with the federal government. There is the issue of the allocation of financial support for the schools and the issue of the allocation of controls. As a percentage of gross national product, we are spending no more on education today than we did during the depression. We now spend about 51 billion dollars for education, about 35 billion for the public schools and about 15 billion for higher education. The federal contribution for public schools is a little over eight percent. Automation as change requires new patterns and creates problems. But lack of change would also create problems. Industry tends to bear the blame for problems attributed to automation. Industry, therefore, needs to recognize the problems, real or mythical, which are 130 attributed to this technology. Industry ~eeds to define what these problems are nd to make the effort to solve them. ! Any changes in society as far reach'ng as those in the post-industrial revolu- ~on are changes made possible by the ability of people to change and to behave differently. As they behave differently, they can do jobs differently and they can perceive the world differently. All these changes that have to take place are concerns of education. The issue is how do we bring about the situation in which persons can learn what they need to know so they can have productive, significant lives in a society that is quite different from that society their parents knew? Industry would really like to help, but businessmen always want to see something concrete before they start anything new. Business is already playing an important role, the Symposium on Automation and Society sponsored by the University of Georgia with Reliance Electric Company being one manifestation of this effort on the part of industry. There are many problems in the process of change not caused by automation. Automation results from, rather than causes, many changes. Every time the status of a person is raised without his increasing his contribution in an amount equal to the amount his compensation has increased, automation is invited. In industry as wages were increased, those tasks which were not economically viable were automated. Automation was the result rather than the cause. Automation is also a response to the scarcity of labor and facilitates an expanding economy which might otherwise be constrained by deficiencies quantitative or qualitative, in the labor force. The important emphasis is not to place blame but to consolidate forces to come to grips with the problems of a rapidly changing technology-of which automation is a significant segment. The important thing is to recognize the existence of the problem and try to do something about it. A central problem in automation and education is fitting our people to work in the highly technological society that we are coming into. Education may be the answer. Looking to the past, we see that labor unions had a big role in education with the apprenticeship system, which provided the skilled people of the past-the bricklayers, the carpenters, and so on. Today this apprenticeship system is missing. The unions today are living like 19th Century craft guilds, and they are very much dominated by the depression psychology of a limited number of jobs. The challenge to unions is ~o participate in the educational process III terms of the needs of the times and !n the catalytic process of getting people Jobs. In the 1930s there was a cleavage between the craft unions and the industrial unions. In general, there is reluctance on the part of an industrial union to perpetuate a craft system. Industrial unions tend to resist specialized craft training because they want to maintain equality among their workers and not set up separate groups. There are now some reverberations about this among skilled workers in industrial unions among people who have gone through three- or four-year apprenticeship programs. Apprentice-trained workers as a part of the total labor force have been declining percentage-wise for some time. If not apprenticeship, then what training should be used to prepare workers for entry into the labor force? Industry frequently does not want men without experience, and without a job the worker cannot get the experience. The problem then is how to provide the potential worker with this experience. Vocational training programs are one answer. Some unions have recognized this need and have supported vocational training programs. How much of the responsibility for the training problem should rest with the union? Union responsibility lies largely in the training or retraining of their own people, not in training people who have not yet entered the work force. The preparation of young people for 131 initial entry into the work force is another aspect of the problem. In programs across the country which involve federal money, there are some eight million persons involved in vocational training. Over three million of these eight million are adults. Two parts of these programs arc the apprenticeship program and the returning-upgrading program which raises the levels from low skills to the more complex skills required by today's technology. Unions have probably received more than their fair share of the blame for deficiencies in the apprenticeship programs. Apprenticeship has never really been picked up by industry, and we can't just blame the unions. It is a partnership! Job mobility is another aspect of the training problem from the point of view of the individual employer. Industries can invest large amounts in training only to lose the service of these employees to other firms. It takes about S50,000 to train a computer programmer-his pay for two and one half years, computer time, training time for instructors, supervision and so on. The average computer programmer and analyst has changed jobs several times before he is thirty years of age. This is one of the very serious problems in training in industry. Society has not lost his services, but the particular industry which provided his training has. In Japan, the largest industries have the best vocational-technial schools built right into their industries. There is not much in the way of public expenditure. Industry is losing these people and is questioning whether it can afford to continue putting money into these school. Is this then an area in which the public dollar must be invested for the benefit of the total general economy of the country? From the point of view of economic development, a rigid labor force would not be desirable. This is an international problem; responsibility doesn't stop here. Training in industry by industry may be the best form of vocational training. The ttnereacwihnninitocgalAopmf eeponep. oclepalnhe a. svionectIeecrtooyma; teimonoaaunltylyoofifsGeOnrou~t many and other parts of Europe in the last century or so Training in an industrial setting tend to be effective because of that settingS Students punch time clocks, work i~ shifts, and arc exposed to many instruc. tors rather than one. Some of the young people who are the poorest performers in school do well in training in an in. dustrial environment. What works for the urban person poses special problems for those from rural areas. The latter don't have the industries in their corn. munities to provide the training. Lack of job opportunities in their home corn. munities forces them to migrate. A weakness of the Smith-Hughes agricul. tural program was that it trained young men to be farmers when there were no farm jobs available. How do we provide rural youngsters opportunities for developing skills required for employment I elsewhere? One problem is the lack of training of teachers themselves in the new technologies and their implications. We an~ just now turning out our first generation of teachers with automation backgrounds. Teachers appear reluctant to be retrained themselves; they are not going to the trouble, the effort, the time to learn. What we lack in our educational sys- r tern is long-range planning. We need to identify the occupations that are needed in the next five to ten years. We need to plan the education system to provide not only the facilities but also the teachers. This is an investment problem and it is an input-output problem. Nobody seems to be doing these things. We do not have a complete planning process with education and industry and government. We must plan for the next few years to create the skills we want from the people who are available. The gap between people and jobs can be resolved if education assumes the responsibility for placing its graduates in responsible jobs. If we marry the placement system with 132 the educational system, the gap can be closed. Today schools are training for some unknown set of requirements! In the past the work force itself was working essentially as an educational system. Work was simple enough and non-technical enough that one could get a job and work up and get an education. With the closing of that educational system we haven't substituted another route for entry. The person who phases out of education phases into the market place at some level, even jf it is the welfare market. The trauma of the transition now faces people of all ages as old occupations phase out. The high school or college graduate faces a transition, after vears of schooling, to the market place ~here a different set of values is found. The transition may be easier for the dropout than for the graduate. There are several kinds of problems in education which have evolved from the rapid shifts in the nature of occupations due to automation. There is one group which doesn't get educated at all and is not able, for a variety of reasons, to start first grade. There is another group of students who are able, can make good grades, but have gotten sick of school and are in some stage of revolt. There is another group that is showing some mobility. They are the disadvantaged who do get into college and survive. The college has to deal with many kinds of students. How can the nation change its educational system to prepare individuals to live more effectively in a technological environment? Should the system train the individual for a job? To what extent are we concerned with how individuals can live as individuals and as people? Shall we educate the whole man? Shall we educate people for the leisure we are told automation will bring? In the next few decades the pressure on the educational establishment is going to come from American industry. Up to now the establishment has been pretty much an inner-directed entity. It has also been a closely knit political sys- tern. The middle class parents III the past have controlled the system and wanted their youngsters to go on to college were the ones found on the school boards. Now in the cities the lower class families have suddenly discovered education and want to get in on the act. The educational establishment is now becoming otherdirected. and who the other is becomes very important. There will be many bids to take over. There is a new dynamics of pressure groups, including business and industry. There will be a balance in which each group will have to consider the interests of all others-that's the way American politics operate. One change is already taking place. School boards in this country have been dominated by other than busy industrialists or scientists or technologicallyoriented persons. The old type didn't know much about ten-year planning or cost-effectiveness analysis. All of a sudden school boards are becoming stocked with these people who ask the superintendent about his plan for a year from now. This change in the make-up of school boards is causing quite a pulsation in the educational establishment. The government must take a big part in this new managerial approach because a great deal of money spent on education is government money. The following is Dr. Ralph Tyler's summary of the discussions at the Georgia Reliance Symposium. Automation has an impact on education in two ways. It has developed technologies and devices that aid the learning process, and it has been a powerful factor in setting new tasks for our schools and colleges. The major time in these discussions was devoted to the latter subject. Automation and the applications of science and technology to agriculture, industry, national defense, and the health services have sharply shifted the composition of the U.S. labor force. Last year only five percent of those employed were in unskilled occupations, while the increasing demand was in technical, managerial, and service occupations in the health services, education services, rec- 133 reation services, social services, and science, engineerin.lt, accountin.lt, and administration. Thus, very few people, who have little or no education or training, are able to find jobs while the strong demand is for people with more than high school education. When this situation is compared with the past and present, great educational changes are clearly necessary. Heretofore, about 20 percent of our children have not attained the level of education required for employment above the unskilled level, 40 percent have not attained the equivalent of high school graduation, and less than 15 percent have reached the level of college graduation. The new requirements of our complex technological society thus set three new tasks for our educational institutions. To enable all, or almost all, children to gain a functional elementary education To enable three-fourths of our youth to gain a functional high school education To enable at least one-half of our youth to gain effective post-high school education In addition, the change taking place in occupations requires the reeducation of an increasing number of people whose jobs have become obsolete so that they may be able to gain employment in new jobs that are becoming available. The discussion highlighted some of the obstacles that would need to be overcome in order to accomplish these new tasks. Many of the children who have not been reached by our schools came from pre-industrial backgrounds where the ways of life are greatly different from the conditions they now face. For example, the families of tenant farmers in the Mississippi Delta have had little contact with printed material and reading. They have used little, if any mathema. tics. They have lived a subsistence econ- omy - not one in which money was basic. When working, they were performing unskilled tasks, but the need for labor was sporadic so that regularity, punctuality, saving for the future, efficiency in operations were largely unknown. With the applications of modern agriculture to the Delta, these families are no longer needed there, and they are moving to the cities where they are suddenly im- mersed in an urban, industrial SOciety The children come to school without th~ kinds of background experiences On which the curriculum and teaching have heretofore been based. They are not able to succeed in the educational tasks which have been set for them. To reach these children, our educational efforts must reo late to their whole way of life. This means sharp changes in curricula and in learning and teaching activities, beginning in the early childhood years. Similar problems are faced as new grOUps enter high schools and colleges. The discussions commented on the dif. ficulty of effecting changes within established institutions like our schools and colleges. Proposals were made that we develop competing educational institutions to stimulate new and improved practices. The need for cooperation between industry and education was em- phasized so that the transitions and entry points from school to work could be made more flexible. Also, the important potential of cooperative education, the planned alternation of work and study, could be more widely adopted. More imaginative use of new technologies to aid student learning was also seen as a means for meeting the new educational tasks. Furthermore, the groups identified the important help in education furnished by the interaction of students themselves. Children and youth do teach each other, and systematic efforts to develop arrangements for older children to tutor younger olles, and for teams of children of the same age to work together on some of the learning activities could enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of education. In general, the discussions took an optimistic view about the possibility of our accomplishing the new educational tasks. A thorough-going review of American education in terms of a system analysis of learning and teaching should reveal promising ways of stimulating, guiding, and facilitating learning that, although new to schools and colleges, offer promise of marked improvement in our national efforts in education. Dr. Ellis L. Scott is professor of management in the College of Business Administration at the University of Georgia and is also director of Automation and 134 Society Studies. ~rior to joi~ing the University of Georgia faculty III 1964, Dr. Scott was associated with System Development Corporations, the RAND Corpora- tion, the Unive:sity. of New Mexico .and Ohio State Umverslty. He has received post-doctoral fellowships from the Nation- al Foundation for Economic Education and the Social Science Research Council. He is co-editor of two recently published books, A utomation and Society and EDP Systems for Public Management. His current teaching and research interests include automation in society, systems analysis, and management information systems. Dr. Scott received his Ph.D. in sociology and anthropology from Ohio State University. References 1. Vice-Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, "A Humanistic Technology," (Addres'S at the University of Georgia, Feb. 16, 1969). 2. Dr. Willy Ley, "The Next 30 Years in Space," (Lecture at the University of Georgia, Feb. 17, 1969). 3. Bates, Dr. Frederick L., "The Impact of Automation on the Organization of Society," (Position Paper, Georgia-Reliance Symposium on Automation and Society, 1969). 4. Smith, Theodore A., Keynote Address, (Georgia-Reliance Symposium on Automation and Society; See Georgia Business, March 1969). 5. Terborgh, George. The Automation Hysteria, (New York, Norton, 1965). 6. Diebold, John, quoted in Terborgh, op. cit. 7. Evanson, C. English, Position Paper on Technology, (Georgia-Reliance Symposium on Automation and Society, 1969). 8. Joseph, Earl C., "The Coming Age of Management Information Systems," (Financial Executil'e, Aug. 1969). 9. Charles B. Fisher. quoted in "TeChnology: The Agony and the Ecstasy," (News Frollt. June/July 1969), 10, Amber, George E. and Amber, Paul A., Anatomy of Auromation, (Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1962) , 11. American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations, Labor Looks at Automation, (Washington: AFL-CIO, Revised 1969). 12. American Management Association, Keeping Pace with Automation, (New York: 1956). 13. Bolz, Roger W" Understandillg Automatioll. (Cleveland: The Penton Publishing Co" 1966), 181 pp. 14. DunlOp, John T, (Ed), Automation and Technological Chan!:e, (Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, 1962). 15. Faunce, William A., Problems of An Industrial Society, (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1968). 16. Friedman, George, The Anatomy oj Work, (Clencoe: Free Press, 1961). 17. Philipson, Morris, Automation: Implications for the Future, (New York: Vintage Books, 1962). 18. Rosenberg, Jerry M" Automation, Manpower, and Education. (New York: Random House, 1966), 19. Shils, Edward B" Automation and Industrial RelatiOns, (New York: HOlt, Rinehart and Winston, 1966). 20. Simon, Herbert A" The Shape of Automation jor Men and Management, (New York: Harper and Row, 1965). 21. Silberman, Charles E. and the Editors of Fortune, What Managers Shollid Know About Automation, (New York: Harper & Row, 1966). 22, Smigel, Erwin 0, (Ed), Work and Lei,lItre. (New Haven: College and University Press, 1963), 23. Somers, Gerald G. et al. Adjustin!: to Technolo!:lcal Chan!:e, (New York: Harper & Row. 1963). 24. United States Department of Labor, Bulletin l'o, 1287, Impact of Automation, (Washington: Depart- ment of Labor, 1960). 25. Walker. Charles R., Modern Technolog)' and Cililization, (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1962), 135 critique: Automation in Georgia READING Dr. Scott's paper leaves very little doubt that the phenomena of automation is not only present in Georgia but well advanced and here to stay. He also implies that the surface has barely been scratched in the appli_ cation of the concepts of automation in ways which affect our daily activities and indicates that the pace of such application will greatly accelerate in the next decade and one-half. I can only agree. In general, the benefits of automation have not yet been experienced by the general public in any degree approaching that of the business community. This is because automation requires money and change. It is difficult to determine which of these is the most obstinate problem but in any event the business environment, with its varying degrees of militaristic lines of authority, is better able to coordinate its efforts in marshalling the necessary resources and obtaining the desired benefits. The general public, on the other hand, has such a diversity of interests and so many different goals that in our democratic environment it is very difficult even to determine what advances will best serve public and national interests much less achieve them. Nonetheless, as Dr. Scott correctly indicates, application of automation techniques will advance and resulting benefits and conveniences will be made available to or forced on the public. Since these benefits and conveniences must in some way be paid for, the question then becomes whether or not the average individual will be capable to pick and choose between them so as to maximize his return and minimize his cost and stress. In fact, the individual without this capability may not even be able to effectively structure his day to day environment with the result that he may not be able to control the course of events in his life. We already see this effect with some people in their unwise use of easy credit. The slowing effects of capital out- 136 laY requirements, technological optimism, labor union resistance, slow public acceptance of change, lack of understanding of the problem by our technologist, cause me to be somewhat less optomistic than Dr. Scott as to the stage we will be at in 1985. There is little question, however, that at least in concept, the types of things presented by Dr. Scott will indeed come to pass before the turn of the century. Given the slowness of changes in our educational system along with the fact that we have not yet defined (much less refined) what needs to be taught at the elementary and high school levels to equip the average individual to survive with reasonable peace of mind in this environment, one cannot disagree that it is already time to begin evolving an educational approach and program. The schools must concentrate on basic understanding of principles in a problem solving environment-not rote memorization. Dr. Scott suggests that industry should take an increased responsibility for job training since industry seems to be more successful in this type of activity. This is bound to be true since industry knows more precisely which jobs must be filled and what the training requirements are. The schools must provide input to these training programs in the form of students who at any given level of achievement are equipped with the general attitudes and basic understandings that make them viable trainees for an appropriate skill level. Now certainly it is neither possible nor desirable that every individual should be trained in computer programming or systems engineering, and we should not attempt this even though it is the computer that will bring to pass the dramatic changes envisioned. Dr. Scott's well taken point on the emergence of "service" jobs as a major segment of the employment picture emphasizes the importance of the psychological aspects of the new educational approach he advocates. It would seem that he is correct in saying that only through close academic-industrial planning and cooperation can there be any hope of "respectablizing" many categories of service jobs. Since these will be the bulk of the jobs (and certainly the vast majority of the jobs available to average individuals), we must somehow through the academic process, confirmed and expanded in industrial practice, begin to nurture in the minds of our youngest children the thought that it is respectable to serve others and one is not a failure if he doesn't become a "boss." When one realizes that in order to begin this process the service job of teacher itself must achieve status in the eyes of the pupils and this "status" largely results from family attitudes, the immensity of the task becomes evident. As indicated by Dr. Scott, automation itself must be applied to this problem. Somehow we must engineer systems of teaching which on one hand allow each student the opportunity of progressing step by step to the level which he is able (or willing) to achieve and yet leave him prepared to enter some appropriate level of industrial training at any step of the way. This does not seem possible without the further development of programmed learning techniques which have the so aptly called "adaptive control" and which in essence allows individually tailored instructions to each student. In fact, I believe that only through such techniques will the job of teacher regain status simply because very few teachers can successfully (in the eyes of parents particularly) customize the six or eight increasingly complex subjects-they teach to the individual needs of 25 to 35 children. Therefore, the teacher must be relieved of some of the burden of routine instruction and be more available to serve the psychological and emotional needs of the students. In other words the teacher must become a trouble-shooter and problem solver for non-routine instructional needs of the students. 137 This too emphasizes the great need for joint study and development of an {)verall strategy by bringing together the combined know-how and talents of the educational and industrial worlds leading to a cooperative and coordinated education program. All that's at stake is the future of our descendants, our state, and our nation. In summary, I generally agree with Dr. Scott's observations and concIu- sions. While he modestly eschews any pretense of IS year foresight, his extrapolation of the trend of events certainly is accurate as to practical concept without regard to timing. Timing of such events is itself dependent upon the educational process. His analysis of the interdependence of the educational and industrial aspects of this problem is certainly incisive. It is time to begin. 138 By Richard M. Forbes, M.A. TRANSPORTATION in Georgia is a collection of various devices and systems, most of which operate independently. Most transportation facilities are regulated, operated, financed, and built by a wide variety of public and private organizations, with a wide variety of interests and objectives. Little coordination exists between elements of the transportation system. In reality, the widely varying elements and objectives may create a transportation "anti-system." Transportation in Georgia suffers from a basic comprehensive policy vacuum and financial disparities, both in terms of investments and operations. The transportation network also is compromised by lack of coordination and a lag between certain of the facilities and terminal and interchange services, as well as tendency of some equipment Transportation in Georgia manufacturers to produce equipment that is not suitable for the facilities currently available for that equipment. Public attitudes about transportation and related public issues emphasize the automobile and negate some of its direct effects such as air pollution and urbani suburban sprawl and its costs. Relatively few changes in the transportation network can be visualized in the period between 1969 and 1985 because of a general attitude in the society which seems to prefer no changes or at best gradual changes. This attitude apparently is shared by most designers, manufacturers, and operators. Thus new devices representing significant technological changes will not be offered or adopted. Changes will be of a minor and gradual nature, made in the name of efficiency and to prevent disaster from problems such as air pollution. Little will be done in the name of improving environment. Transportation facilities will continue to be made to serve obvious needs as they exist, rather than be used as a posi- 139 tive force to create change and enhance development potential because of the lack of overall comprehensive policy and an adequate expression of goals and objectives for (and by) the state. This problem will be complicated further by the fact that the managers of the elements of the system tend to serve only what seem to be their best interests rather than those of society in general. Education in Georgia will not be af- fected to any significant degree by the transportation network. The forces that will affect education are already in motion and those are associated with urbanization. (~~s,, \....;..:.;_A~~F/] T HIS paper is not a technical analysis of transportation or any of its elements. An attempt was made to investigate specifics of transportation within the state, especially in state planning context, but little comprehensive information was available on transportation. One report published by the State Planning Board does present information on the facts of transportation, mode by mode, as it exists in the present, but no projections, interrelationships, or goals are expressed. Consequently one must conclude that changes in transportation will occur, but it is highly probably that the changes will be very gradual and will reflect the continuing trend to urbanize and suburbanize the state, especially the northern portions. Guidance and firm policy emanating from Georgia does not seem likely in the near future. Neither does it seem reasonable to expect truly coordinated federal policy. Further, translating policy into firm regulation is complicated by the fact that transportation facilities are both public and private, and are regulated by a group of public agencies, many of them federal, with substantially different policies, attitudes, responsibilities, financial resources, and motivations. In addition capital for construction of transportation comes from a wide variety of sources, both public and private, with the federal government playing a signifi_ cant role. "Transportation" is not a system. Because of its many elements, many managers, many funders, and many users, it is more of a vast "anti-system." A great deal of information is available on individual modes of transporta_ tion within the state. However, little has been assembled on the interrelations of the transportation network. Virtually nothing has been collected on the volume or coverage of the various origins and destinations of the many kinds of trips made by people and products around and through the state. In a search for information on the transportation network in Georgia, not one map was found which presented information on where all of the major pathways of the various networks exist. Nor was there comprehensive data on volume of trafficwhether people or tons or cubic feet or gallons. No symbolic maps or presentations of any kind seem to be available which present the role of the various cities in the state as terminals or exchange points-or the volume and importance of the exchange and interchange movements. Transportation data are not analyzed on a "cascading" or cumulative basis. Certain types of data are not even available because movement of certain types of goods, in interstate commerce for example, are regulated, and therefore statistics are maintained by federal agencies which do not require dissemination on a state-by-state basis. Many companies do not make available specific information beyond the requirements of state or federal law or regulation, for the reason that competitive disadvantages may result. This introductory statement is neither an excuse nor an apology for the "state of the transportation art." Rather it might be considered an announcement to the reader that an analysis of "Transportation" in any general dimension with a geographic or political boundary is likely to be highly generalized and based upon an amazing lack of data-unless 140 the study is to be an enormously complicated and expensive undertaking. This should be done, probably by the state. In the absence of a comprehensive analysis, my comments must be conside~ed more in the nature of an essay which will attempt to convey a set of impressions about transportation and what it may be in the year 1985. Present Transportation Circumstances in Georgia The Georgia of today is a collection of transportation corridors which focus on a few points within and at the edge of the state. One major focal point, Atlanta, dominates the origins, destinations, interchange, and terminal movements of the entire state transportation network. In general it seems safe to observe that the more urban an area the more likely it is to contain a great concentration of all types of transportation-facilities which will be more extensive on a per capita (or density) basis than can be expected in less urban or less extensive circumstances. The Atlanta circumstance is further enhanced because of its beginnings as, literally, Terminus which collected and dispersed materials for the entire Southeast. The continuance of that role has helped increase the availability of transportation in Atlanta, and therefore, in Georgia. Georgia in some respects is a "one hundred percent location." This "hot," commercial aspect of the state, especially with regard to all of the southeast, was created by the early venture into the railroad business by the state and the happy accident of geography which made Atlanta the place to pass through to go east or west for all southerners and those who wanted to serve southern markets. The development of the Atlanta Airport, coupled with airplane capacities (distance and load), existing markets, interchange potential, and the subtle effect of a cummulative pressure for service, further enhanced the cen- trality of Atlanta and, thus, Georgia. The construction of Interstate Highways with their focus on Atlanta and the rise of the motor truck magnified even more the Atlanta area as a transportation center. The other urban centers of the state do not enjoy the same level of transportation activity experienced in Atlanta because of the lack of either people to serve or industrial activities to service. Transportation activity apparently drops off rapidly as urban areas diminish in size throughout the state. Transportation Issues Vacuum in Policy It is almost unnecessary to discuss the problem of urban congestion caused by the heavy demands for space in the transportation network. Most people, however, think of the congestion caused by the automobile and, specifically, the problems of rush hour traffic. The universality of the problem frequently obscures other urban transportation problems. The lack of coordinated policies with regard to transportation facilities and terminals breeds excessive transfer movements which generate unique forms of congestion and traffic volume. Motor trucks and streets are used for many of the transfer movements from random origin points to dispersed delivery points as a substitute for potentially more efficient systems such as long haul conveyors or tunnels. The lack of interrelated, coordinated policy at all levels is a most important issue. It matters not whether the policy should deal with one city's transportation problems as they relate to all modes and devices, or comprehensive policy at the state or federal level. Fragmented bits of policy can be found which are comprehensive to some degree for railroads, or airports, or motor trucks, but not to all three, because the regulations themselves deal only with the one mode. 141 Financial Disparities - Capital Investment Units of the transportation network variously enjoy or suffer from vastly different policies with regard to the facilities they use for their respective operations. Many pleadings can be discovered by (or thrust upon) observers of the transportation scene which tell of the sufferings of one or another facility. The railroads once benefitted from great and wonderous subsidies of land. Today the trucking industry enjoys the subsidy of operating upon publicly constructed facilities (especially the freeways) in circumstances which many experts say is unfair subsidy. Truck operators on the other hand think they pay their share or more of the taxes. The railroads at the same time are losing business to trucks because of rate structures created in some respects by the "free" roadbed enjoyed by truckers. Waterways constructed by the Corps of Engineers open routes which offer competition for railroad cargo. Public funds used for construction of airport facilities to meet demands placed upon them by ever larger aircraft raises the issue of freight as a significant competitor for cargo now carried by truck and railroad in much the same fashion that the railroads lost passenger business to the automobile and the airlines. Many other inequities can be found. Virtually all modes of transportation at one time or another have benefitted from subsidy. The problem is that in some cases the subsidies remain, while in others they have been eliminated. Certain kinds of subsidy are oriented to geography or political units, such as choice to build rural roads in the face of rapidly multiplying demands for urban roads. In some cases this is caused by a parsimonious or impecunious legislature trying to extend funds too far, or simply exercising a bias, or as a manifestation of ignorance. Fina ncia I Dispa rities-Opera tions The creation of public policies which make it necessary to regulate activities and rates, or to subsidize the operatiot18 of a transportation mode, have al crea. ted inequities in rates between cotnSo. petmg transportation modes and med'ia. Some observers feel strongly that taxes o~ motor trucks are far too low, which gIves them a great advantage over rail. roads as they compete for cargo. The regulation a.lso ?een of an isrsauielrooafdcofrnesiigdhetrabralteesnehgaa~ tlve Import.ance to the south in times past, .and m some circumstances it is conceIvable the same issues could be raised again. Public operation of certain type facilities such as urban mass transit can skew the cost of transportation for 0; the urbanite under some circumstances Taxes imposed upon vehicles, fares, fuel can also distort operating costs to the extent that a transportation facility can become non-competitive or priced out of the market. The tax on fuel con- sumed by the Atlanta Transit Company buses combined with the three percent sales tax on all fares is an example of an inequity that imposes mainly upon disadvantal!"ed oersons who have no transportation alternative. Large numbers of people other than the poor must have some form of transportation available to them. Young people and old people are two relatively large groups who cannot qualify for drivers licenses, for example. In addition, the need to relieve traffic congestion should produce policy which would encourage the use of transit vehi- cles of all types. Tax policy should not increase the cost. Reality would seem to dictate the use of a subsidy of some sort. Technology and Product Availability One part of the transportation problem must be associated with the devices that are used to perform the transportation job. These include not only the vehicles such as the airplanes, trucks and automobiles, but also the roadbeds, the airports, freight stations, and transfer points. To the extent that these facilities and the devices they serve meet needs and serve society, Georgia has a transporta- 142 tion network. On the other hand, as the devices fail to change, or change more rapidly than other elements of the transportation network facilities, services may be out of balance, compromised or inflicted with special burdens. Consider the problem faced by major airports. In Georgia only Atlanta meets the criteria for a major hub. Airframe manufacturers and airline operators have a vested interest in operating efficiently. As efficiency in many respects is equated with size, air craft have doubled and redoubled in capacity. The impact of this is that planes carrying 300 persons will soon be landing in Atlanta. The immediate future will see aircraft passenger capacity reach 500. Few, if any, changes will be needed to develop aircraft capable of transporting 1,000 passengers. But what of the airports? Usually federal and local funds are used to build new facilities. These funds are limited and there is a good possibility that aircraft will be flying long in advance of the development of adequate terminal facilities. The dilemna seems unreal. Why not regulate the aircraft size in order to conserve public funds? Or, why not require airlines and airframe manufacturers to furnish the complete terminal facilities? Many alternatives present themselves as answers to the problems of keeping pace with the manufacturers' products and technological innovations, yet our society fails to use any of them. The responsibility belongs to the federal government, yet a high percentage of the cost of a new terminal may have to be borne by local government. Modernization of railroads is an interesting case. Only recently-within the last ten years really-have the railroads begun to change attitudes about ways to haul freight. New box cars and cargo devices were put into service which permitted significant changes in freight rates. Other steps were taken to modernize operations. However, little or nothing seems to have been done to speed shipments by increasing operating speeds, or switching speeds, or cutting transfer time (except for the use of piggyback vehicles) . Automobile manufacturers successfully build in one kind of obsolescence, stylishness, and yet resist technological change even if it is in the interest of the lives and safety of the auto buying public. Relatively few changes have been made in the internal combustion engine to limit the emission of hydrocarbonsthe poisonous major creator of smog. Little work has been done on alternate power sources. Virtually no changes have been made by manufacturers to improve the safety characteristics of cars and trucks themselves. The only changes that have been installed have been reluctant responses to commands by the federal government. Many, many more need to be made, in the opinion of safety experts. Urban rapid transit represents another set of attitudes which tend to limit product design and development. A very high percentage of the mass transit market exists in the older major cities of the United States. Since those systems were developed, in the main at the beginning of the Twentieth Century, the vehicles that serve them must be designed with relatively minor changes that can be made to fit into the old tunnels, station spacing, and roadbed alignments. Since the manufacturers seem to feel that the older cities will represent a very major share of the mass transit market "forever" they plan very few changes for vehicles, or propulsion equipment. Technical improvements are being made to control systems, ticket taking devices and similar "exterior" components of the mass transit systems. Cars themselves are neater, lighter weight, and quieter, but they operate at about the same speeds with about the same capacities on the same old lines. When extensions are made to existing systems, the old design standards dominate because equipment must operate on both old and new sections. Likewise when engineers design a new system in a new city, they tend to make proposals which reflect existing 143 mass transit technology (which in reality is of late Nineteenth Century origin), because manufacturers have that type of equipment or design skill or production ability immediately available. No new tooling or development activity is required. The steel wheelan the steel rail is still the "way to go." Gauges, capacities, speeds, and in some cases alignments have been modified and improved, but today's rapid transit and mass transit technology is based on improvements to ideas which were not considered revolutionary, outlandish, or impractical three quarters of a century ago. Public Attitudes The love affair of the American with his car is the best single example of the existence of an attitude which creates problems for the transportation "industry." The willingness of the suburbanite to fight traffic at speeds frequently averaging less than ten miles per hour on his trip to work and then back home indicates a fierce identification with the family or individual automobile. In spite of hazards (including poisoned air) , high capital costs, high storage costs, and enormous time delays because of congestion, the average American seems to be remarkably content with his automobile's place in the "infinite urban scheme of things." Granted the alternatives to an automobile are sometimes grim: high density living in a dirty city, riding like sardines in a pokey transit vehicle, exposure to weather while changing from one mode to another, walking on part of the trip, limitations of trip frequency because of schedules and demands, plus limited geographical service. The liberation of urban and suburban man and his family brought about by the automobile is one of the most profound phenomena of the Twentieth Century. It is not a complete liberation, however, and the price of the liberation has been high. In exchange for "freedom" of movement and location, society is now subject to pollution, death and maiming, delay and inefficiency. Yet the "love affair" continues. It has changed the landscape, both urban and rural, the economic system, politics (especially in the suburbs), life styles, and attitudes . The passive acceptance of the impact of the car and all other rubber tired vehicles operating freely will probably not be easily changed. Certain other public attitudes might also be mentioned. There seems to be a tendency for the public to be suspicious of many of the changes that are OCCUr. ring in the national society. The propensity seems to be to resist changes that can be easily perceived. Yet many of the changes are taking place gradually-and thus are not seen because they are somewhat evolutionary and are not subject to scrutiny or protest. Air pollution is an example of a change that in most places has been gradual; yet, once it arrives it seems to be accepted, or at least is not fought vigorously. The citizens' public attitude toward taxes seems to be growing more and more definite each year. This is a universal phenomenon yet it seems to be extremely active on the local governmental level-probably because people feel that heavy protests can be manifest and implemented in a local government circumstance. The reluctance of citizens to be subject to an ever-increasing tax burden has been and will continue to be a negative factor in changing public policy and responsibilities. Georgia, with its rapid change from rural farm circumstances to rural non-farm, urban, and suburban life styles and the increased cost of providing urban type services, tax agonies will be a dominant feature of public policy debates. Services to a low-density, spread out suburban or rural non-farm area are more expensive than in an urban area or in a central city because of the enormous numbers of people who bring about an admixture of problems, making the entire environment more expensive to serve adequately. The Future of Transportation Most likely, the state of Georgia IS 144 years from now will not look or feel too much different than it does today. Changes will have taken place, and these changes will be obvious to politicians, public managers, and merchants. Citizens, however, may not recognize the differences because the changes most likely will take place in a gradual fashion. More people than ever before will be living in the cities and in nearby suburbs. The countryside will likely accommodate more people than before, but many of these residents will not be oriented to farming. The rural numbers will be greater, yet they will represent a smaller percentage of the state's population. It is highly probable that many more people in terms of absolute numbers and proportions will be living in the northern parts of the state. The second type of "managed" gradual change will be that type which is oriented to providing a little more efficiency. Falling into this class are those changes that would make it possible to get into the city a little faster-a new freeway, for example, might do that or a bus that would carry more people for about the same operating costs. Certain changes of this type have been built into both existing and proposed rapid transit systems around the nation. Transit cars are made out of aluminum, more efficient motors are used, automatic devices eliminate personnel and costs are thus lowered. These tactics avoid the problems associated with the heavy efforts and sometimes large expense associated with the development of new systems that may be more effective and less expensive in the long run. The most efficient way to solve urban transportation problems may be to develop a completely new vehicle for use in the urban area, with its own right of way, at a different scale both in terms of time and of distance, yet no activity can be seen except for some computer model studies of various alternatives. A possible third type of "managed" change may come into being. This would be a change oriented to the comfort and pleasure of users. Changes of this nature might be the development of a transit bus that sat fewer people in more comfort, or the rearrangement of transportation corridors in the city and in the county so that a trip would become aesthetically pleasant-a delight rather than a "drag." This kind of change would increase capital costs of transportation facilities, but they might make touring once again a pleasure, if safety was also built into the transportation corridors. Safety, however, may be one of the by-products of an aesthetic roadway. Transportation-Its Role The transportation network is an ambivalent phenomenon. On one hand it reflects the physical arrangements of the society it serves. On the other, it can shape and mold the physical circumstances in which the society exists. Man's early history and development was conditioned mightily by transportation circumstances. Urbanization did not arrive until minimum transportation facilities were available-at least for farm to market movement of goods. The sweep of urbanization in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries was made possible by a variety of transportation devices such as the steam engine and the electric motor, then the internal combustion engine. The development of the nation was a function of the availability of transportation. The very existence of Atlanta is a result of transportation and its importance to the entire southeast. One must concede that transportation is a better "creator" than it is a "server." Part of the ambivalence associated with transportation as it is analyzed by specialists of all sorts is that the roles of transportation are often not fully appreciated. For example, the installation of a transportation facility in a corridor can generate a response in the form of substantial investment on adjoining land and thus create a new environmental circumstance. This role mayor may not be appreciated by the managers of trans- 145 portation investments or transportation operators. On the other hand, a preoccupation with giving "service" sometimes causes the managers to "bend" the transportation corridor (or investment) to the extent that negative effects result and growth is directed into places not wishing growth, or into circumstances not able to meet the special needs brought about by the transportation engendered growth. The "watchword" today in virtually all quarters, public and private, is service. Transportation must serve everything and everybody. And this is true. Transportation must serve the commuter, the manufacturer, the farmer, the poor man, the vacationer, the car builder, the merchant, the school child, the retired person, in short all elements of the society rich or poor, organized or not. Almost without exception personnel involved directly or indirectly in transportation operation, manufacturing of transportation gear, development of transportation facilities, or the regulation of transportation tends to think of his role as being one of providing service. Service to the public, or the many publics dominates the thinking of the "vendors." Highway departments build highways and freeways so that people can drive where they want to go. They also serve the truckers and the busses. The varieties of service and levels of demand may, however, be vastly different, yet all of the facilities are open to every user and potential user. Which of them is served best? Which is poorly served? Are there inequities in levels of service or costs because of the compromise effected in a universal design? Recently in Atlanta discussions were held about the creation of "busways" for the exclusive use of mass transit vehicles. When will the discussion turn to "truckways"? The point is that compromises do affect users, and the concept that the service is the "be all" and "end all" may not be completely appropriate. Separate state and federal agencies regulate, at different levels of interest, different transportation devices. The regulation is required under various laws and in the case of some states' constitutional provisions, regulations therefore must be in the public interest. Again service seems to be a good description of the attitude. However, the differential pattern of regulation imposed by different agencies may, or may not provide for a maximization of relative efficiencies between different modes. Serving public needs through the manufacturing and marketing of many automobiles is one of the avowed purposes of the industry. Profit is also a motive-as it is with many other manufacturers and operators. The production of an overwhelming number of cars may not be completely in the public's interest, or meet true public needs-especially if the vehicles a~e less than safe and also poisonous. Likewise the highway departments that build roads for multiple use may not build the safest roads, or build roads in the best locations. The real issue for transportation planning and development is whether any (or every) transportation facility should only serve, or whether the facility should be used to guide or influence growth, development, or the maintenance of those places and people it serves. Should a transportation facility be placed so that it meets an existing demand, or should it be located so that the service is offered in a location where growth is desirable which is equipped to handle the growth and development usually brought about by the installation of a facility? In an urban or suburban context, should the freeway be built where people now live which may experience growing problems or should it be placed in a location with all the necessary elements to take the forecast growth, with comfort? Should a transit line or freeway be located in a place just because there are potential customers or users rather than in a location with fewer people, but with an infinitely better potential for growth, development, and environmental satisfaction? 146 Obviously the questions cannot be answered out of hand. Simple suggestions do not suffice, but it seems fair to observe that much of the activity in the transportation arena over the last several decades has been oriented to meeting the immediate needs, to serving in a passive fashion. The option of installing a transportation facility so that it generates a response and thus guides growth in a positive way has seemed to be beyond the interest of the management of all types of transportation activities. This discussion does not mean to imply that a creative location of a transportation way is not service-oriented; merely, that a creative outlook about capital investment may serve better and broader objectives than an investment which is narrowly oriented to a simple meeting of existing demand-and a forecast demand based upon the old ground rules and conditions. Transportation Objectives And the Future Even at a creative peak, the investment of funds for a transportation facility must be oriented to serving a social goal and a community need. There are many existing options for implementing social goals, but transportation in one form or another is likely to be a party to most of the options. Transportation facilities can be used effectively if, but only if, the social, economic and political goals are spel1ed out, and if the responsible investor (public or private) responds to the expression of the goals. One of the greatest weaknesses of the many societies of the United States and al1 of its subordinate constituent bodies is the inability to clearly express goals for the nation, the state, the city, and in many cases, even for the individual. Lack of an expressed goal deprives the transportation investment of any significant impact on "goal reaching." Investments are thus plowed into the ground willy nilly, resulting in the expansion of the ambivalent nature of society and of the transportation device itself. The basic disorganization of the elements of the transportation network reflect the pluralism and the disrupted changing society that has been dominant recently. Until articulate goals are expressed and acknowledged by the elements of our society, the best that can be expected of the transportation network is more of the same disorganization. The strongest and most popular managers will prevail and the units they manage will "contribute" and extend their modes-quite probably at the expense of other options. This wil1 happen in spite of the economies that might be effected through the use of other modes. Quite probably the heavy investments will be made under the limitations of conventional technology with gradualism as the major modifying force. Most likely investments will be made with relatively little concern for interconnection with other transportation modes. The odds would seem to favor little or no concern for true economic insight regarding values of competing modes, ultimate service, growth impact, or the creative use of large investment to accomplish basic objectives. This paper must conclude that transportation in Georgia will be little different 10 or 15 years from now. Since little change is visualized in facilities, options available to individuals or in the attitudes towards transportation, little impact can be seen on the educational system of the state. There is no doubt that sweeping changes in transportation technology are possible. Personalized, exterior powered, automated, high speed vehicles on a guideway can be developed and installed on a test basis within five years and can be used to solve urban and suburban--even rUt ai-commuting problems. Very high speed (300 miles per hour) vehIcles can be used in tunnels, or at grade within special rights-of-way to minimize air space congestion around airports, leaving planes for transcontinental and intercontinental travel. Commuting radius can be extended to 50, 100, even 200 miles from central cities 147 using technology and hardware that can be produced in relatively short periods of time-five to 10 years. The arrangements of our cities and the state can be very substantially modified if the present policy of gradualism is avoided. But reform and change do not seem to be characteristic of this society at this time. Bravery and a willingness to experiment are lacking at the basic level of our society-the individual. Because of this, the society's leaders have not manifested goals or objectives which would lead to an attitude conducive to reform. The Role of Education worthwhile for all people. Educators and their institutions must present students and the rest of this society, with courag~ and daring and imagination to live with the new technology, whatever it may be. The chaos that exists today will be compounded beyond belief because of the dominance of the "anti-change, gradualism, passive" attitudes unless they are wiped out. Leadership in education can do the wiping. If it does, when a similar paper is written in 1985 on TRANSPORTATION the author's response will be vastly different. There is no reason for optimism today. The society as it exists today is a manifestation of the conditioning it has received. Obviously our people have not been conditioned to accept change as rapidly as it occurs. Neither have our citizens been able to adapt and adjust to the urban phenomena wh ic h dommates life today. The educational institutions must condition students, and all people, to the circumstances beyond the immedi- ate issues of an education. Our people must learn to enjoy change. Our people must be able to respond favorably and actively to the suspense and adventure that changes create. Our people must learn to use change as a positive force that can make life better and more Richard M. Forbes, associate professor of real estate and urban affairs at Georgia State University, is a former chief planner for the City of Atlanta and former Director of Planning for Fulton County. Mr. Forbes has held many planning consultant positions for business, industry, government, and research organizations. He has held other planning positions at the Atlanta Region Metropolitan Planning Commission, the University of Arkansas, and North Little Rock, Ark. He is a member of the American Institute of Planners, the American Society of Planning Officials, the Board of Trustees for the Arts Festival of Atlanta, Inc., and past president of the Atlanta Chapter of the American National Theatre and Academy. Mr. Forbes received his Master of Regional Planning degree from the University of North Caro!ina at Chapel Hill. References Appel, Fredric c., "The Coming Revolution in Transportation," (National Geographic, cxxxvr, Sept. 1969), p. 301. Boulding, Kenneth E., The Meaning of the 20th Century, (New York: Harper and Row, 1965). Chintz, Benjamin, City and Suburb, (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: 1964). Eldredge, H. Wentworth, Taming Megalopolis, (New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1967). Georgia State Planning Bureau, Status of Transportation in Georgia, (Atlanta, Ga.: circa July, 1968). Hamilton, William F., II and Nance, Dana K., "Systems Analysis of Urban Transportation," (Scientific American, CCXXI, 1969), pp. 19-27. Martin, Roscoe c., The Cities and the Federal Systems, (New York: Atherton Press, 1965). Meyer-Kain-Wohl, The Urban Transportation Problem. (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1965). Owens, Wilfred, The Metropolitan Tra11sportation Prohlem, (Washington, D.C., 1966). Schmandt, Henry J. and Bloomberg, Warner, Jr., The Quality of Urban Life, Vol. III, (Beverly Hills, Calif.' Sage Publications, Inc., 1969). Smerk, Gevrge M., Readings in Urhan Transportation, (Indiana: University Press, 1968). Smith, Wilbur, & A