GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends May 2002 Volume 8, Issue 3 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report March 2002 Data Volume 8, Issue 3 May 2002 Cover art: The Page House, Dublin, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 JAN 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 177.1 FEB 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 177.8 MAR 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 178.8 APR MAY 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 JUN 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 JUL AUG 109.5 109.7 113.8 114.4 118.5 119.0 124.4 124.6 130.4 131.6 136.2 136.6 140.5 140.9 144.4 144.8 148.4 149.0 152.5 152.9 157.0 157.3 160.5 160.8 163.2 163.4 166.7 167.1 172.6 172.8 177.5 177.5 SEP 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 OCT 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV DEC AVG CPI RATE 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS The CPI Picks up Pace in March The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 178.8 (1982-84=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ending in March, the CPI-U increased 1.5 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.6 percent in March, prior to seasonal adjustment. The March level of 174.7 was 1.2 percent higher than the index in March 2001. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.3 percent in March, following increases of 0.2 percent in each of the first two months of 2002. The energy index, which declined 0.8 percent in February, advanced 3.8 percent in March. The index for petroleumbased energy increased 8.0 percent, and the index for energy services rose 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in March after increasing 0.3 percent in February. For the first three months of 2002, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.0 percent. This compares with an increase of 1.6 percent in all of 2001. The index for energy, which had declined sharply in the second half of 2001, turned up the first quarter of 2002, advancing at a 16.5 percent SAAR. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 49.9 percent annual rate, while charges for energy services declined at a 5.8 percent annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.1 percent SAAR in the first quarter, following a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001. The index for housing rose 0.1 percent in March. Shelter costs, which advanced 0.5 percent in February, rose 0.1 percent in March. The index for fuels and utilities increased 0.4 percent in March. The index for fuel oil rose 2.2 percent in March. The index for natural gas increased 0.8 percent while the index for electricity remained unchanged. The transportation index, which declined 0.2 percent in February, rose 1.2 percent in March, reflecting an 8.0 percent increase in the index for gasoline. Airline fares increased for the third consecutive month up 0.5 percent in March following declines in each of the last six months. Medical care costs rose 0.4 percent in March. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.1 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent in March. Charges for professional and hospital related services increased 0.1 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Georgia's Economic Indicators Remain Mixed Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) accelerated 1.5 percent in March to 177.5 from a upwardly revised 174.9 in February, after seasonal adjustment. In March an array of mixed signals delayed both economic indicators from moving upward sequentially. When the leading and coincident economic indicators move upward simultaneously over a period of time ( 3 months or more) the economy is usually in expansion mode. The leading economic indicator moved towards higher ground in March, after taking a breather in February. New filings for corporate charters increased 10.4, a possible sign that more dislocated workers are venturing into entrepreneurship. Recent 12 Months 184.7 Leading Coincident 177.8 170.9 164.0 157.1 1987-88 =100 150.2 MAMJ J ASOND J FM Sales of new motor vehicles were up 7.7 percent in March. Jobless claims contracted 1.0 percent. Building permits for residential construction increased 5.4 percent during the reporting period as the value of commercial construction dropped 49.6 percent. The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) decreased slightly, 0.1 percent to 157.5, from a revised 158.8 in February, after seasonal adjustment. Nonagricultural employment slipped in March, down 0.1 percent, after increasing 0.2 percent in February. Retail employment contracted 0.3 percent in March, adding to February's 0.6 percent decline. Unemployment in March increased one-tenth of a percent to 4.6 percent. State revenue dropped 26.5 percent in March adding to February's 9.8 percent decline. On the positive side, manufacturing average weekly earnings and weekly hours were up slightly in March. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary March 2002 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Mar 2002 Feb 2002 Mar 2001 Percent Change Feb 2002 to Mar 2002 Percent Change Mar 2001 to Mar 2002 Nonagricultural Employment 3,873,452 3,880,687 3,983,939 -0.19 -2.77 Retail Employment 700,432 702,564 719,611 -0.30 -2.67 Manufacturing Employment 535,800 539,768 563,555 -0.74 -4.93 Manufacturing Workweek 42.9 41.8 40.5 2.60 5.98 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $564.83 $558.71 $529.46 1.09 6.68 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $315.90 $314.24 $300.49 0.53 5.13 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 10,088 9,031 11,033 11.70 -8.57 Initial Unemployment Claims 42,701 43,148 47,300 -1.04 -9.72 Continued Unemployment Claims 299,206 326,290 185,827 -8.30 61.01 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.6% 4.5% 3.7% Insured Unemployment Rate 2.05% 2.04% 1.29% New Motor Vehicle Sales 44,279 41,086 47,370 7.77 -6.53 Residential Construction (building permits) 8,118 7,698 7,192 5.46 12.88 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $265,245,000 $525,956,000 $431,267,000 -49.57 -38.50 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $219,392,100 $436,116,100 $363,938,400 -49.69 -39.72 New Business Corporations 5,617 5,085 5,039 10.46 11.48 Total State Revenues $829,956,000 $1,129,201,000 $926,149,000 -26.50 -10.39 Deflated Total State Revenues $464,181,200 $635,096,200 $525,623,700 -26.91 -11.69 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.03 2000-2001 2001-2002 3.99 3.95 3.90 3.86 3.82 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 2000-2001 3,931,442 3,951,406 3,955,191 3,956,277 3,968,522 3,970,521 3,971,120 3,973,532 3,979,488 3,969,680 3,977,192 3,983,939 2001-2002 3,982,787 3,974,909 3,971,332 3,960,068 3,945,137 3,935,987 3,942,193 3,906,082 3,892,867 3,872,285 3,880,687 3,873,452 MILLIONS Retail Employment 729.8 2000-2001 2001-2002 722.5 715.2 THOUSANDS 707.8 700.5 693.2 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 2000-2001 712,080 713,348 713,479 714,963 716,620 716,140 716,184 719,345 721,436 718,082 717,582 719,611 2001-2002 720,263 720,417 718,372 713,422 713,207 711,789 717,621 712,091 711,426 706,291 702,564 700,432 Manufacturing Employment 605 2000-2001 2001-2002 590 575 THOUSANDS 560 545 530 515 A M J J A S O N D J F M 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2000-2001 589,055 588,489 587,948 582,865 582,507 579,493 576,410 574,233 572,476 568,517 565,865 563,555 2001-2002 556,407 551,136 547,482 547,243 543,104 541,888 541,929 533,672 538,342 537,895 539,768 535,800 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 44.4 2000-2001 2001-2002 43.1 41.7 HOURS 40.4 39.0 37.7 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2000-2001 42.1 41.0 41.2 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.4 40.5 2001-2002 39.2 40.2 40.5 40.6 41.3 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.3 42.8 41.8 42.9 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $584 2000-2001 2001-2002 $566 DOLLARS $548 $530 $512 $494 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2000-2001 $544.76 523.51 529.04 534.27 538.17 538.92 545.68 547.03 538.96 533.25 530.49 529.46 2001-2002 $513.66 524.54 532.20 531.66 536.72 537.84 526.74 523.65 526.39 555.99 558.71 564.83 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings DOLLARS $333 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted $322 Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 $311 $299 $288 $277 A M J J A S O N D J F M Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar $318.20 305.61 307.05 309.54 311.44 310.26 313.61 314.20 309.75 304.54 301.76 300.49 $290.37 295.18 298.99 299.53 302.38 301.65 296.42 295.18 297.90 313.94 314.24 315.90 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 23.5 2000-2001 2001-2002 19.1 THOUSANDS 14.6 10.1 5.7 1.2 A M J J A S O N D J F M * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 96.0 2000-2001 2001-2002 78.0 THOUSANDS 59.9 41.9 23.9 5.9 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2000-2001 18,229 17,965 16,512 16,416 16,105 14,415 13,509 12,513 11,504 11,144 11,717 11,033 2001-2002 10,485 9,536 8,113 8,655 8,801 7,642 7,647 7,307 6,863 8,463 9,031 10,088 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2000-2001 25,845 27,835 30,493 31,766 33,237 34,242 36,886 43,958 44,720 50,402 46,055 47,300 2001-2002 52,785 58,261 53,061 59,542 49,355 50,093 73,209 64,401 47,878 55,134 43,148 42,701 Continued Unemployment Claims 486.5 2000-2001 2001-2002 393.2 THOUSANDS 299.9 206.5 113.2 19.9 A M J J A S O N D J F M 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2000-2001 128,323 150,682 137,452 151,158 148,693 151,634 181,147 165,718 164,512 211,730 196,795 185,827 2001-2002 258,887 242,095 251,027 282,298 263,622 272,945 370,414 324,446 360,381 316,501 326,290 299,206 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.1 2000-2001 2001-2002 4.6 PERCENTAGES 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 A M J J A S O N D J F M * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.76 2000-2001 2001-2002 2.26 PERCENTAGES 1.76 1.26 0.76 0.26 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 2000-2001 3.4 % 3.5 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 2001-2002 3.6 % 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 2000-2001 0.86 % 0.83 0.87 0.91 0.97 0.95 0.94 1.03 1.21 1.19 1.23 1.29 2001-2002 1.35 % 1.48 1.56 1.73 1.64 1.72 1.92 2.03 2.09 2.22 2.04 2.05 New Motor Vehicle Sales 62 2000-2001 2001-2002 55 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 2000-2001 2001-2002 THOUSANDS 48 42 35 28 A M J J A S O N D J F M Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 49,925 50,998 46,247 48,402 53,062 45,375 45,510 44,190 37,137 52,597 42,961 47,370 46,979 48,748 43,724 47,397 49,695 49,277 49,573 48,849 37,638 46,262 41,086 44,279 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,106 2000-2001 2001-2002 9,251 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,396 7,541 6,686 5,831 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2000-2001 7,736 8,114 7,862 7,637 7,442 7,590 7,110 7,265 7,293 8,434 7,897 7,192 2001-2002 7,566 8,313 9,129 8,400 7,768 6,920 7,370 6,928 6,997 7,711 7,698 8,118 Nonresidential Construction $953 2000-2001 2001-2002 $774 $596 MILLIONS $417 $239 $61 A M J J A S O N D J F M Deflated Nonresidential Construction $843 2000-2001 2001-2002 $684 $525 MILLIONS $366 $207 $48 A M J J A S O N D J F M 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2000-2001 $736,178,000 589,272,000 629,543,000 384,390,000 405,932,000 567,269,000 544,494,000 372,176,000 485,732,000 565,448,000 461,292,000 431,267,000 2001-2002 $572,387,000 432,484,000 475,670,000 496,336,000 471,396,000 529,509,000 512,544,000 619,902,000 323,839,000 501,561,000 525,956,000 265,245,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 2000-2001 $643,512,200 513,303,100 546,953,100 332,229,900 350,545,800 489,446,900 468,180,600 319,190,400 415,510,700 481,642,200 391,921,800 363,938,400 2001-2002 $483,843,600 364,657,700 399,722,700 417,791,200 395,466,400 443,474,900 426,054,900 514,441,500 268,300,700 415,199,500 436,116,100 219,392,100 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 6,725 2000-2001 2001-2002 5,750 CHARTERS 4,775 3,800 2,825 1,850 A M J J A S O N D J F M * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,683 2000-2001 2001-2002 $1,466 $1,249 MILLIONS $1,032 $815 $598 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 2000-2001 4,096 5,285 4,692 4,128 4,858 4,271 4,654 4,806 4,611 4,859 4,544 5,039 2001-2002 4,513 4,718 4,721 4,442 5,605 4,161 4,742 2,931 3,039 5,348 5,085 5,617 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 2000-2001 $1,078,638,000 1,346,521,000 1,033,355,000 1,125,837,000 1,180,082,000 1,135,949,000 1,181,132,000 1,132,895,000 1,133,560,000 1,342,191,000 1,124,170,000 926,149,000 2001-2002 $989,987,000 1,428,144,000 1,226,480,000 1,062,372,000 1,099,959,000 1,062,069,000 1,092,639,000 1,086,140,000 1,067,092,000 1,253,033,000 1,049,479,000 829,956,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 2000-2001 2001-2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $819 $697 $575 $453 $331 A M J J A S O N D J F M Month Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar 2000-2001 $630,045,600 786,060,100 599,741,700 652,281,000 682,917,800 653,971,800 678,811,500 650,715,100 651,471,300 766,528,300 639,459,600 525,623,700 2001-2002 $559,630,900 803,682,600 689,033,700 598,519,400 619,695,200 595,664,000 614,878,400 612,254,800 603,900,400 707,528,500 590,258,200 464,181,200 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2002 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. 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