GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends September 2001 Volume 7, Issue 7 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report July 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 7 September 2001 Cover art: Springfield Baptist Church, Birthplace of Morehouse College, Augusta, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 JAN 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 FEB 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 MAR 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 APR MAY 63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 JUN 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 JUL 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 AUG 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 SEP 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 OCT 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 DEC 67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 AVG 65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 CPI RATE 9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS The Consumer Price Index falls 0.3 percent The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) fell 0.3 percent in July, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.5 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12month period ended in July, the CPI-U increased 2.7 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) declined 0.5 percent in July, prior to seasonal adjustment. The July level of 173.8 was 2.6 percent higher than the index in July 2000. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U fell 0.3 percent in July, its first monthly decline since April 1986. The index for petroleum-based energy declined 10.3 percent and the index for energy services fell 1.0 percent. Downturns in the indexes for lodging away from home and for airline fares more than offset a sharp increase in the index for tobacco and smoking products. During the first seven months of 2001, the CPI-U rose at a 2.8 percent Georgia Department of Labor The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference 4.0 Divided by the previous index 108.5 Equals 0.037 Results multiplied by 100 0.037 x 100 Equals percent change 3.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. The index for energy, which registered double-digit increases in both 1999 and 2000, declined at a 0.7 percent SAAR during the first seven months of 2001. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U has advanced at a 2.9 percent SAAR thus far in 2001, compared with a 2.6 percent rise for all of 2000. The housing index was unchanged in July, following increases of 0.4 percent in each of the preceding two months. Each of the three major housing groups contributed to the deceleration. Shelter costs, which rose 0.5 in June, increased 0.1 percent in July. The index for fuels and utilities fell 0.9 percent, following a 0.4 percent rise in June. The indexes for fuel oil and for natural gas were down 2.8 and 4.1 percent, respectively. The transportation component declined for the second consecutive month, falling 2.3 percent in July, largely as a result of a sharp decline in gasoline prices. The index for gasoline fell 11.0 percent in July, its sharpest drop since an 11.2 percent decline in April 1986. Medical care costs rose 0.1 percent in July to a level 4.5 percent higher than a year ago. In July, the index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.1 percent in July. Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Georgia's Leading Economic Indicator Continues to Strengthen Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.18 percent in July to 168.4 from a revised 168.2, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 2.9 percent since July 2000. Georgia's Leading Index continues to move higher after posting consecutive increases over the past two months. The largest contributor to the index's rise was an 11.8 percent increase in the dollar value of nonresidential construction. Sales of new motor vehicles were down 0.6 percent in July. Building permits for residential construction decreased 2.8 percent during the month of July, after increasing 8.4 percent in June. Recent 12 Months 171.4 Leading Coincident 168.7 166.1 163.5 160.8 158.2 1987-88 =100 AS O N D J F M AM J J The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 Initial unemployment claims continue to increase as corporations continue to reorganize. New business charters filed with the Secretary of State decreased 3.7 percent during the current reporting period. The Index of Coincident Indicators fell for the second consecutive month, declining by 0.5 percent during the month of July. A revised June index of 163.0 declined to 162.2 in July. Retail employment also declined 0.12 percent in July, erasing June's gain. Georgia's preliminary unemployment rate for July decreased to 4.0 percent, which remains well below the nation's unemployment rate of 4.7 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary July 2001 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted July 2001 June 2001 July 2000 Percent Percent Change Change June 2001 July 2000 to to July 2001 July 2001 Nonagricultural Employment 4,027,874 4,040,782 4,005,404 Retail Employment 738,394 739,249 723,043 Manufacturing Employment 570,339 567,924 589,020 Manufacturing Workweek 40.7 40.3 41.2 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $536.76 $531.47 $535.27 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $302.40 $298.58 $310.12 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 8,612 7,826 16,354 Initial Unemployment Claims 59,258 50,442 31,422 Continued Unemployment Claims 283,727 246,537 151,092 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.75% 1.58% 0.92% New Motor Vehicle Sales 41,964 42,210 43,177 Residential Construction (building permits) 8,751 9,005 7,965 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $554,259,000 $495,771,000 $426,077,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $464,203,500 $414,871,100 $368,260,200 New Business Corporations 4,511 4,686 4,203 Total State Revenues $1,068,000,000 $1,272,264,000 $1,133,065,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $601,690,100 $714,755,100 $656,468,700 -0.32 -0.12 0.43 0.95 1.00 1.28 10.05 17.48 15.09 -0.58 -2.83 11.80 11.89 -3.74 -16.06 -15.82 0.56 2.12 -3.17 -1.21 0.28 -2.49 -47.34 88.59 87.78 -2.81 9.87 30.08 26.05 7.32 -5.74 -8.34 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.13 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.07 MILLIONS 4.01 3.94 3.88 3.82 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July 1999-2000 3,895,893 3,911,070 3,921,579 3,925,393 3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 3,993,871 4,005,404 2000-2001 4,007,558 4,009,019 4,020,945 4,030,439 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,048,042 4,040,782 4,027,874 Retail Employment 753.4 1999-2000 2000-2001 741.1 728.7 THOUSANDS 716.3 703.9 691.5 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July 1999-2000 707,831 706,692 709,943 715,004 722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 721,421 723,043 2000-2001 721,309 718,769 726,337 733,610 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 739,086 739,249 738,394 Manufacturing Employment 610 1999-2000 2000-2001 599 588 THOUSANDS 577 566 555 A S O N D J F M A M J J 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1999-2000 596,282 596,144 594,288 593,718 595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 587,924 589,020 2000-2001 585,594 585,806 585,901 581,835 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,023 567,924 570,339 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 43.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 42.6 41.4 HOURS 40.1 38.9 37.7 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1999-2000 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.2 42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 41.0 41.2 2000-2001 41.4 41.0 41.3 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 40.3 40.7 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $561 1999-2000 2000-2001 $547 DOLLARS $534 $521 $507 $494 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1999-2000 $514.84 524.94 529.19 542.12 544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 528.35 535.27 2000-2001 $540.94 539.33 542.76 543.47 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 523.71 531.47 536.76 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $338 $325 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 DOLLARS $313 $300 $287 $275 A S O N D J F M A M J J Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July $308.10 312.65 314.62 322.11 323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 306.64 310.12 $313.05 310.49 311.93 312.16 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.71 298.58 302.40 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 24.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 20.2 THOUSANDS 15.9 11.6 7.3 3.0 A S O N D J F M A M J J * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 74.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 62.0 THOUSANDS 49.2 36.4 23.6 10.9 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1999-2000 17,257 17,162 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 16,354 2000-2001 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 7,826 8,612 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1999-2000 31,429 29,589 27,653 28,483 32,536 30,852 27,421 26,430 25,740 28,821 29,186 31,422 2000-2001 34,375 34,313 38,271 45,620 43,776 50,354 45,517 45,582 52,459 60,285 50,442 59,258 Continued Unemployment Claims 354.2 1999-2000 2000-2001 294.0 THOUSANDS 233.8 173.6 113.4 53.1 A S O N D J F M A M J J 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1999-2000 162,340 132,319 139,033 154,977 138,052 153,719 134,472 122,763 131,083 148,971 135,417 151,092 2000-2001 152,030 147,905 184,770 164,381 167,498 211,150 195,343 182,949 264,655 239,858 246,537 283,727 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.1 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.5 PERCENTAGES 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.4 A S O N D J F M A M J J * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.17 1999-2000 2000-2001 1.82 PERCENTAGES 1.48 1.13 0.79 0.44 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July 1999-2000 4.1 % 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.1 2000-2001 3.8 % 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July 1999-2000 0.93 % 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.92 2000-2001 0.97 % 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 1.58 1.75 New Motor Vehicle Sales 68 1999-2000 2000-2001 60 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 THOUSANDS 51 43 35 27 A S O N D J F M A M J J Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July 46,239 42,194 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 42,210 41,964 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 9,934 1999-2000 2000-2001 9,157 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,381 7,604 6,828 6,051 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1999-2000 7,489 7,323 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 7,965 2000-2001 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 9,005 8,751 Nonresidential Construction $1004 1999-2000 2000-2001 $833 $663 MILLIONS $493 $323 $152 A S O N D J F M A M J J Deflated Nonresidential Construction $875 1999-2000 2000-2001 $727 $580 MILLIONS $433 $285 $138 A S O N D J F M A M J J 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1999-2000 $539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 2000-2001 $393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 495,771,000 554,259,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July 1999-2000 $486,506,300 428,497,300 328,514,800 386,081,400 646,157,000 421,557,000 343,551,300 487,899,000 689,786,700 477,932,900 568,813,200 368,260,200 2000-2001 $339,383,400 505,888,700 446,500,400 313,807,900 401,231,000 476,375,600 372,187,800 373,156,100 522,317,900 337,591,600 414,871,100 464,203,500 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,679 1999-2000 2000-2001 5,251 CHARTERS 4,822 4,393 3,965 3,536 A S O N D J F M A M J J * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,683 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,482 $1,281 MILLIONS $1,080 $879 $679 J A S O N D J F M A J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay June July 1999-2000 4,316 4,622 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 4,203 2000-2001 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 4,686 4,511 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,152,734,000 956,358,000 1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 $1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000 919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 1,272,264,000 1,068,000,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $832 $723 $614 $505 $397 A S O N D J F M A M J J Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July 1999-2000 $689,846,800 569,599,800 643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 2000-2001 $681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 714,755,100 601,690,100 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2001 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 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