GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends .A>HK=HO Volume 7, Issue 12 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report December 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 12 February 2002 Cover art: Lumpkin County Courthouse, Dahlonega, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / February 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 JAN 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 FEB 106 109.3 111.6 116 121.6 128 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 MAR 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160 162.2 165 171.1 176.2 APR 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 176.9 MAY 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 177.7 JUN 107.6 109.5 113.5 118 124.1 129.9 136 140.2 144.4 148 152.5 156.7 160.3 163 166.2 172.3 178 JUL 107 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 AUG 108 109.7 114.4 119 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 SEP 108.3 110.2 115 119.8 125 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 OCT 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164 168.2 174 177.7 Chart is not seasonally adjusted CPI RATE NOV DEC AVG 109 109.3 107.6 3.8% 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164 163.9 163 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 174 172.125 3.4% 177.4 176.7 177.1 1.6% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Inflation Stays Low in 2001 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.4 percent in December, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 176.7 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ending in December, the CPI-U increased 1.6 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.5 percent in December, prior to seasonal adjustment. The December level of 172.9 was 1.3 percent higher than the index in December 2000. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U, which was unchanged in December, declined 0.2 percent in December. The energy index, which declined sharply for the third month, down 3.2 percent in December. The index for petroleum-based energy declined 6.1 percent, and the index for energy services fell 0.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent, following an increase of 0.4 percent in November. Smaller increases in the indexes for medical care and for new vehicles, accounted for the deceleration in December. Consumer prices declined at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter. This followed increases in the first three quarters at rates of 4.0, 3.7, and 0.7 percent, respectively. For the 12-moth period ended in December, the CPI-U rose 1.6 percent. This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for 2000 and was the smallest annual advance since a 1.6 percent rise in 1998. Excluding food and energy, the CPIU advanced at a 2.6 percent SAAR in the fourth quarter, following increases at rates of 3.5, 2.6, and 2.4 percent, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2001. The 2.7 percent rise in 2001 compares with a 2.6 percent rise in 2000. The index for housing rose 0.2 percent in December, following a 0.4 percent increase in November. Shelter costs advanced 0.4 percent in December, the same as in November. The index for fuels and utilities decreased 0.9 percent in December and 2.1 percent in 2001. The index for natural gas declined 2.1 percent in December and 15.1 percent during the past 12 months after increasing 36.7 percent in 2000. In December, the index for fuel oil declined 7.1 percent. Fuel oil prices, which increased 30.9 percent in 1999 and 40.5 percent in 2000, fell 26.7 percent in 2001. The transportation component declined 0.8 percent in December, reflecting a 6.0 percent decrease in the index for gasoline. Gasoline prices have fallen 34.7 percent in the seven-month period following the peak level reached in May 2001. Airline fares decreased 0.4 percent in December, bringing their decline in the last four months of 2001 to 6.3 percent. During 2001, airline fares fell 3.9 percent after increasing 5.9 percent in 2000. Medical care costs rose 0.1 percent in December. The index for medical care commodities increased 0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.1 percent in December. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related services increased 0.2 and 5.0 percent, respectively. In the 12 months ended in December 2001, the index for medical care rose 4.7 percent after increasing 4.2 percent in 2000. The acceleration in 2001 reflects larger increases in the indexes for prescription drugs and hospital and related services, up 6.0 and 7.1 percent, respectively following increases of 3.6 and 6.2 percent in 2000. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Georgia's Leading Economic Indicator Increases 0.3 Percent Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.3 percent in December to 169.1 from a revised 168.5, after seasonal adjustment. The Leading Economic Indicator has increased 0.9 percent since January 2001. The LEI managed to move upward despite the mixed results in December. The value of nonresidential construction dropped down to 312 million (seasonally adjusted) in the month of December, which equates to a decrease of 49.0 percent from the previous month. Sales of new motor vehicles contracted 25.1 percent in December as zero percent special financing deals evaporated. The largest contributor to the slight increase in the LEI was the decrease Recent 12 Months 176.0 Leading Coincident 171.1 166.2 161.4 156.5 151.6 1987-88 =100 J F M AM J J A S O N D The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. in jobless claim, down 30.5 percent in December. The index of Coincident Indicators declined 0.3 percent in December to 156.7 from a revised 157.9 in November. After the index decreased 1.2 percent in November, the dust has seamed to have settled. Most of the sectors fluctuated in the low single digits, no dramatic data swings in the Coincident Indicators this month, which is good news. Non-farm employment dipped slightly 0.4 percent and retail employment increased 0.1 percent in December. The unemployment rate for the state of Georgia increased one-tenth of a percent in the month of December. Hopefully, next month's indicators will display signs of the start of an economic recovery. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary December 2001 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Dec 2001 Nov 2001 Dec 2000 Percent Change Nov 2001 to Dec 2001 Percent Change Dec 2000 to Dec 2001 Nonagricultural Employment 3,936,271 3,951,169 4,024,427 -0.38 -2.19 Retail Employment 725,138 724,458 735,734 0.09 -1.44 Manufacturing Employment 556,381 556,462 582,143 -0.01 -4.43 Manufacturing Workweek 40.3 40.2 40.8 0.10 -1.23 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $530.00 $527.43 $535.92 0.49 -1.10 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $299.94 $297.31 $308.00 0.89 -2.62 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 6,839 7,341 11,507 -6.84 -40.56 Initial Unemployment Claims 46,739 67,227 43,776 -30.48 6.77 Continued Unemployment Claims 366,720 320,187 167,498 14.53 118.94 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.2% 4.1% 3.0% Insured Unemployment Rate 2.09% 2.04% 1.21% New Motor Vehicle Sales 36,511 48,732 36,195 -25.08 0.87 Residential Construction (building permits) 6,615 6,837 6,920 -3.25 -4.42 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $312,009,000 $609,613,000 $469,039,000 -48.82 -33.48 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $259,359,100 $507,587,800 $401,231,000 -48.90 -35.36 New Business Corporations 2,869 2,906 4,381 -1.25 -34.51 Total State Revenues $1,039,829,000 $1,099,578,000 $1,107,590,000 -5.43 -6.12 Deflated Total State Revenues $588,471,400 $619,829,800 $636,546,000 -5.06 -7.55 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.10 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.06 MILLIONS 4.02 3.97 3.93 3.89 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 3,993,871 4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019 4,020,945 4,030,439 4,024,427 2000-2001 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,048,042 4,040,782 4,027,874 4,009,907 3,992,972 3,978,364 3,951,169 3,936,271 Retail Employment 753.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 741.6 729.7 THOUSANDS 717.8 705.9 694.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 721,421 723,043 721,309 718,769 726,337 733,610 735,734 2000-2001 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 739,086 739,249 738,695 733,350 729,506 729,396 724,458 725,138 Manufacturing Employment 607 1999-2000 2000-2001 593 580 THOUSANDS 566 553 539 J F M A M J J A S O N D 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 587,924 589,020 585,594 585,806 585,901 581,835 582,143 2000-2001 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,023 567,924 569,034 564,976 563,222 561,402 556,462 556,381 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 43.4 1999-2000 2000-2001 42.3 41.1 HOURS 40.0 38.8 37.7 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.0 41.3 40.9 40.8 2000-2001 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 40.3 40.3 40.8 40.7 39.8 40.2 40.3 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $561 1999-2000 2000-2001 $547 DOLLARS $534 $521 $507 $494 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 $538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 528.35 535.27 540.94 539.33 542.76 543.47 535.92 2000-2001 $525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 523.71 531.47 527.00 531.54 538.07 524.30 527.43 530.00 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $333 $321 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 DOLLARS $310 $298 $286 $275 J F M A M J J A S O N D Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 306.64 310.12 313.05 310.49 311.93 312.16 308.00 $299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.71 298.58 296.90 299.46 301.78 295.05 297.31 299.94 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 24.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 19.8 THOUSANDS 15.2 10.5 5.9 1.2 J F M A M J J A S O N D * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 96.0 1999-2000 2000-2001 78.0 THOUSANDS 59.9 41.9 23.9 5.9 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 2000-2001 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 7,826 8,612 8,662 7,485 7,733 7,341 6,839 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 30,852 27,421 26,430 25,740 28,821 29,186 31,422 34,375 34,313 38,271 45,620 43,776 2000-2001 50,354 45,517 45,582 52,459 60,285 50,442 59,258 50,742 49,812 75,965 67,227 46,739 Continued Unemployment Claims 486.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 393.2 THOUSANDS 299.9 206.5 113.2 19.9 J F M A M J J A S O N D 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 153,719 134,472 122,763 131,083 148,971 135,417 151,092 152,030 147,905 184,770 164,381 167,498 2000-2001 211,150 195,343 182,949 264,655 239,858 246,537 283,727 268,978 266,143 378,429 320,187 366,720 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.1 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.5 PERCENTAGES 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.4 J F M A M J J A S O N D * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.60 1999-2000 2000-2001 2.15 PERCENTAGES 1.70 1.25 0.81 0.36 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 3.6 % 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 3.0 2000-2001 3.3 % 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.2 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 0.87 % 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 2000-2001 1.18 % 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 1.58 1.75 1.65 1.71 1.94 2.04 2.09 New Motor Vehicle Sales 66 1999-2000 2000-2001 58 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 THOUSANDS 50 43 35 27 J F M A M J J A S O N D Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 42,210 41,964 50,688 49,561 49,229 48,732 36,511 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 9,933 1999-2000 2000-2001 9,077 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,221 7,365 6,509 5,653 J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 2000-2001 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 9,005 8,751 7,498 6,801 7,414 6,837 6,615 Nonresidential Construction $987 1999-2000 2000-2001 $814 $640 MILLIONS $466 $293 $119 J F M A M J J A S O N D Deflated Nonresidential Construction $875 1999-2000 2000-2001 $716 $556 MILLIONS $397 $238 $79 J F M A M J J A S O N D 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 $480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 2000-2001 $559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 495,771,000 554,259,000 454,058,000 544,199,000 489,145,000 609,613,000 312,009,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 $421,557,000 343,551,300 487,899,000 689,786,700 477,932,900 568,813,200 368,260,200 339,383,400 505,888,700 446,500,400 313,807,900 401,231,000 2000-2001 $476,375,600 372,187,800 373,156,100 523,642,400 338,730,200 416,614,300 466,548,000 380,921,100 455,778,100 407,281,400 507,587,800 259,359,100 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 7,055 1999-2000 2000-2001 6,064 CHARTERS 5,073 4,082 3,091 2,100 J F M A M J J A S O N D * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,683 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,482 $1,281 MILLIONS $1,080 $879 $679 D J F M A J J A S O N D Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 2000-2001 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 4,686 4,511 5,903 4,159 4,666 2,906 2,869 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 $1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 2000-2001 $1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000 919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 1,272,264,000 1,068,000,000 1,099,342,000 1,038,457,000 1,139,708,000 1,099,578,000 1,039,829,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $832 $723 $614 $505 $397 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1999-2000 $682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 2000-2001 $775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 714,755,100 601,690,100 619,347,600 582,421,200 641,366,300 619,829,800 588,471,400 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / .ebruary 2002 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to bill.webb@dol.state.ga.us Bill Webb Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E. 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