GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends December 2001 Volume 7, Issue 10 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report October 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 10 December 2001 Cover art: Crisp County Courthouse, Cordele, Georgia by Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Bill Webb, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 Andrew Young International Boulevard, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, adapted from commentary by Michael Wald New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 JAN 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 FEB 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 175.8 MAR 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 176.2 APR MAY 63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 176.9 177.7 JUN 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 178.0 JUL 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 177.5 AUG 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 SEP 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 OCT 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 DEC 67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 AVG 65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.1 CPI RATE 9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 3.4% The CPI Declines in October U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.3 percent in October, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.7 (198284=100), as recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12month period ending in October, the CPI-U increased 2.1 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.5 percent in October, prior to seasonal adjustment. The October level of 174.0 was 2.0 percent higher than the index in October 2000. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U declined 0.3 percent in October after increasing 0.4 percent in September. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent for the fourth consecutive month. During the first 10 months of 2001, the CPI-U rose at a 2.1 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 3.4 percent for all of 2000. Georgia Department of Labor The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference 4.0 Divided by the previous index 108.5 Equals 0.037 Results multiplied by 100 0.037 x 100 Equals percent change 3.7% The energy index, which increased in double-digit figures in both 1999 and 2000, has declined at a 7.2 percent SAAR thus far in 2001. In the first 10 months of 2001, petroleum-based energy costs decreased at a 13.5 percent SAAR, and charges for energy services fell at a 0.7 percent rate. The housing index declined for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.1 percent in October. The index for fuels and utilities declined for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.1 percent in October. The indexes for natural gas and for electricity fell 6.8 and 0.5 percent, respectively. The index for fuel oil declined 5.2 percent. The transportation component, which increased 1.6 percent in September, turned back down in October, declining 2.2 percent. The index for gasoline, which rose 8.6 percent in September, declined 10.7 percent in October. Gasoline prices have declined 20.8 percent in the fivemonth period following the peak level reached in May 2001. Airline fares declined for the fourth consecutive month following a sharp increase in June, down 2.5 percent in October. Medical care costs rose 0.4 percent in October to a level 4.6 percent higher than a year ago. In October, the index for medical care services rose 0.5 percent. Charges for hospital and related services increased 0.7 percent. Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 The State's Leading and Coincident Indicators Trend Downward Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators decreased 0.1 percent in October to 168.7 from a revised 170.1, after seasonal adjustment. The index has declined for two consecutive months. The index was weighed down by the reduction in value for commercial development. Nonresidential construction dropped 10.1 percent during the month of October, which pushed the value of commercial construction down to $489 million. Residential construction remained strong during the reporting period; housing permits were up 9.0 percent in October . The Index of Coincident Indicators declined for the fifth consecutive month. The index retracted 0.5 percent in October to 159.7 from a revised 160.5 in September. Recent 12 Months 174.3 Leading Coincident 170.5 166.8 163.1 159.3 155.6 1987-88 =100 N D J F MAM J J A S O The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. Nonagricultural employment moved lower during the month, slipping 0.4 percent. Retail employment slipped 0.1 percent in October, adding to September's 0.2 percent decline. Manufacturing employment continued its decent, down 0.3 percent in October. Initial jobless claims increased along with continued unemployment claims. Layoffs in the travel industry continue to mount as the demand for travel weakens. The unemployment rate for the state of Georgia increased to 4.2 percent in October, reflecting the increasing number of unemployed workers not able to find jobs. With the leading and coincident indicators trending downward, the state appears to be headed for an economic slowdown. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary October 2001 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Oct 2001 Sep 2001 Oct 2000 Percent Change Sep 2001 to Oct 2001 Percent Change Oct 2000 to Oct 2001 Nonagricultural Employment 3,975,371 3,992,972 4,020,945 -0.44 -1.13 Retail Employment 728,697 729,506 726,337 -0.11 0.32 Manufacturing Employment 561,502 563,222 585,901 -0.31 -4.16 Manufacturing Workweek 39.8 40.7 41.3 -2.17 -3.62 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $522.71 $538.07 $542.76 -2.85 -3.69 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $294.15 $301.78 $311.93 -2.53 -5.70 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 7,733 7,485 13,640 3.31 -43.31 Initial Unemployment Claims 75,965 49,812 38,271 52.50 98.49 Continued Unemployment Claims 378,429 266,143 184,770 42.19 104.81 Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) 4.2% 4.0% 3.7% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.94% 1.71% 0.95% New Motor Vehicle Sales 49,229 49,561 45,177 -0.67 8.97 Residential Construction (building permits) 7,414 6,801 7,157 9.01 3.59 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $489,145,000 $544,199,000 $519,280,000 -10.12 -5.80 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $407,620,800 $455,015,900 $446,500,400 -10.42 -8.71 New Business Corporations 4,666 4,159 4,566 12.20 2.20 Total State Revenues $1,139,708,000 $1,038,457,000 $1,227,641,000 9.75 -7.16 Deflated Total State Revenues $641,366,300 $582,421,200 $705,540,800 10.12 -9.10 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.12 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.07 MILLIONS 4.02 3.96 3.91 3.86 N D J F M A M J J A S O Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 3,925,393 3,938,858 3,939,391 3,959,134 3,977,154 3,970,172 3,988,045 3,993,871 4,005,404 4,007,558 4,009,019 4,020,945 2000-2001 4,030,439 4,024,427 4,040,180 4,045,042 4,041,867 4,052,785 4,048,042 4,040,782 4,027,874 4,009,907 3,992,972 3,975,371 Retail Employment 753.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 741.6 729.7 THOUSANDS 717.8 705.9 694.0 N D J F M A M J J A S O Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 715,004 722,770 709,013 715,823 719,353 720,379 720,877 721,421 723,043 721,309 718,769 726,337 2000-2001 733,610 735,734 732,765 731,550 734,253 734,736 739,086 739,249 738,695 733,350 729,506 728,697 Manufacturing Employment 610 1999-2000 2000-2001 597 585 THOUSANDS 572 559 547 N D J F M A M J J A S O 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 593,718 595,486 590,229 591,515 590,915 589,013 588,422 587,924 589,020 585,594 585,806 585,901 2000-2001 581,835 582,143 576,177 579,216 574,610 573,204 571,023 567,924 569,034 564,976 563,222 561,502 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 43.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 42.6 41.4 HOURS 40.1 38.9 37.7 N D J F M A M J J A S O Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 42.2 42.4 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.9 40.6 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.0 41.3 2000-2001 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.3 39.1 39.8 40.3 40.3 40.8 40.7 39.8 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $561 1999-2000 2000-2001 $547 DOLLARS $534 $521 $507 $494 N D J F M A M J J A S O Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 $542.12 544.48 538.67 535.01 531.27 542.91 524.37 528.35 535.27 540.94 539.33 542.76 2000-2001 $543.47 535.92 525.05 522.38 526.21 510.55 523.71 531.47 527.00 531.54 538.07 522.71 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $338 $325 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 DOLLARS $313 $300 $287 $275 N D J F M A M J J A S O Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct $322.11 323.52 319.31 315.27 310.50 317.12 306.11 306.64 310.12 313.05 310.49 311.93 $312.16 308.00 299.85 297.14 298.64 288.61 294.71 298.58 296.90 299.46 301.78 294.15 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 24.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 20.0 THOUSANDS 15.5 11.0 6.6 2.1 N D J F M A M J J A S O * Jobs listed with the Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 96.0 1999-2000 2000-2001 78.0 THOUSANDS 59.9 41.9 23.9 5.9 N D J F M A M J J A S O Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 17,741 18,997 16,116 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 2000-2001 12,566 11,507 10,951 11,955 11,596 10,661 9,448 7,826 8,612 8,662 7,485 7,733 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 28,483 32,536 30,852 27,421 26,430 25,740 28,821 29,186 31,422 34,375 34,313 38,271 2000-2001 45,620 43,776 50,354 45,517 45,582 52,459 60,285 50,442 59,258 50,742 49,812 75,965 Continued Unemployment Claims 486.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 393.2 THOUSANDS 299.9 206.5 113.2 19.9 N D J F M A M J J A S O 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 154,977 138,052 153,719 134,472 122,763 131,083 148,971 135,417 151,092 152,030 147,905 184,770 2000-2001 164,381 167,498 211,150 195,343 182,949 264,655 239,858 246,537 283,727 268,978 266,143 378,429 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 5.1 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.5 PERCENTAGES 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.4 N D J F M A M J J A S O * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 2.43 1999-2000 2000-2001 2.01 PERCENTAGES 1.60 1.19 0.77 0.36 N D J F M A M J J A S O Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 3.7 % 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 2000-2001 3.2 % 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 0.88 % 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.95 2000-2001 1.04 % 1.21 1.18 1.18 1.28 1.33 1.51 1.58 1.75 1.65 1.71 1.94 New Motor Vehicle Sales 68 1999-2000 2000-2001 60 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 THOUSANDS 51 43 35 27 N D J F M A M J J A S O Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 44,725 48,624 47,789 50,078 42,210 41,964 50,688 49,561 49,229 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 9,935 1999-2000 2000-2001 9,128 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 8,320 7,512 6,704 5,896 N D J F M A M J J A S O Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 8,622 7,203 8,031 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 2000-2001 7,210 6,920 8,628 8,054 7,287 7,784 8,310 9,005 8,751 7,498 6,801 7,414 Nonresidential Construction $987 1999-2000 2000-2001 $820 $653 MILLIONS $486 $319 $152 N D J F M A M J J A S O Deflated Nonresidential Construction $875 1999-2000 2000-2001 $727 $580 MILLIONS $433 $285 $138 N D J F M A M J J A S O 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 $431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 391,992,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 2000-2001 $365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 438,065,000 442,190,000 619,469,000 401,734,000 495,771,000 554,259,000 454,058,000 544,199,000 489,145,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 $386,081,400 646,157,000 421,557,000 343,551,300 487,899,000 689,786,700 477,932,900 568,813,200 368,260,200 339,383,400 505,888,700 446,500,400 2000-2001 $313,807,900 401,231,000 476,375,600 372,187,800 373,156,100 523,642,400 338,730,200 416,614,300 466,155,600 380,283,100 455,015,900 407,620,800 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 6,675 1999-2000 2000-2001 6,012 CHARTERS 5,349 4,686 4,023 3,360 N D J F M A M J J A S O * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,683 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,482 $1,281 MILLIONS $1,080 $879 $679 O N D J F M A J J A S O Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 4,427 4,762 4,731 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 2000-2001 4,779 4,381 4,880 4,498 5,033 4,745 4,617 4,686 4,511 5,903 4,159 4,666 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 $1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 1,084,760,000 919,280,000 964,287,000 1,446,688,000 1,272,264,000 1,068,000,000 1,099,342,000 1,038,457,000 1,139,708,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $940 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $832 $723 $614 $505 $397 N D J F M A M J J A S O Month Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1999-2000 $656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 2000-2001 $658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 617,042,100 521,725,300 545,102,900 814,118,200 714,755,100 601,690,100 619,347,600 582,421,200 641,366,300 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / December 2001 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your 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