GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends March 2001 Volume 7, Issue 1 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report January 2001 Data Volume 7, Issue 1 March 2001 A note to the reader: Beginning with this issue, the methodology for seasonal adjustment has been changed. The X-11 ARIMA method is still used, however additional smoothing for cyclical events will be discontinued. If you require a more detailed explanation, email Stephen.Matta@dol.state.ga.us Cover art: Nicholas-Ware House, Augusta - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 303031751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data that have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 JAN 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 175.1 FEB 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 MAR 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 APR MAY 63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 JUN 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 JUL 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 AUG 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 SEP 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 OCT 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV DEC 67.4 67.7 AVG 65.2 CPI RATE 9.0% 75.9 76.7 72.6 13.3% 85.5 86.3 82.4 12.5% 93.7 94.0 90.9 8.9% 98.0 97.6 96.5 3.8% 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 137.8 137.9 130.7 136.2 6.1% 3.1% 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 174.0 172.1 3.4% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Consumer Prices Increased 0.6 Percent in January The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 175.1, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ending in January, the CPI-U increased 3.7 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.6 percent in January, prior to seasonal adjustment. The January level of 171.1 was 3.7 percent higher than the index in January 2000. The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.3 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent increase in December. A larger increase in shelter costs and an upturn in the price of cigarettes were the principal factors accounting for the acceleration in January. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.6 percent in January, its largest monthly advance The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change 4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7% since a 0.6 percent rise in March 2000. The energy index rose 3.9 percent in January, accounting for over one-half of the overall CPI-U increase. The food and beverages index rose 0.2 percent in January. The index for food at home, which increased 0.7 percent in December, rose 0.2 percent in January. A sharp downturn in the index for fruits and vegetables more than offset larger increases in most other food at home groups. The index for housing rose 1.0 percent in January, following an increase of 0.3 percent in December. The index for fuels and utilities rose 5.9 percent, accounting for over threefourths of the overall housing increase. Shelter costs, which increased 0.2 percent in December, advanced 0.3 percent in January. The transportation component rose 0.3 percent in January after decreasing 0.1 percent in December. Gasoline prices continued to decline, but by less than in December. The index for gasoline decreased 0.1 percent in January. The index for apparel decreased 0.2 percent in January, following a 0.3 percent decline in December. Medical care costs rose 0.6 percent in January to a level 4.5 percent higher than a year ago. In January, the index for medical care commodities-prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and medical supplies--increased 0.5 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.7 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 173.0 148.3 123.7 99.0 1987-88 = 100 74.4 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Leading Index shows stronger than usual January gain Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 1.4 percent in January to 166.7 from a revised 164.3, after seasonal adjustment. The index has grown 2.5 percent from over January of 2000. State revenues were up sharply, 22.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, some of which is explained by tax prepayments for the new year. Employment continued to show stability as total nonagricultural payroll employment grew 0.4 percent after seasonal adjustment. Manufacturing employment declined 1.0 percent for the month. The number of unfilled job openings increased 7.5 percent during January, Recent 12 Months 69.1 Leading Coincident 67.2 65.3 63.3 61.4 1993 = 100 59.5 The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 erasing the December decline of 8.4 percent. The Index of Coincident Indicators also showed strength for the month, increasing to 164.9 from a revised December index of 161.8, or 1.9 percent. The growth of the Coincident Index from January of 2000 was also 1.9 percent. Contributing to the January surge was strong construction spending. Residential construction was up 24.7percent, while nonresidential spending rebounded 19.2 percent. Retail employment declines 0.4 percent in January. The state unemployment rate grew to 3.2 percent, although the insured unemployment rate declined to 1.19 percent for the month. Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary January 2001 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2001 Dec 2000 Jan 2000 Percent Change Dec 2000 to Jan 2001 Percent Change Jan 2000 to Jan 2001 Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment 4,040,180 732,765 4,024,427 735,734 3,965,660 733,876 0.39 -0.40 1.88 -0.15 Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Workweek Weekly Manufacturing Earnings Deflated Manufacturing Earnings Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 576,177 40.7 $525.05 $299.85 12,375 582,143 40.8 $535.92 $308.00 11,507 605,180 41.9 $537.38 $318.54 16,116 -1.02 -0.25 -2.03 -2.65 7.54 -4.79 -2.86 -2.29 -5.87 -23.21 Initial Unemployment Claims 50,354 43,776 30,852 15.03 63.21 Continued Unemployment Claims Unemployment Rate Insured Unemployment Rate 211,150 3.2% 1.19% 167,498 3.0% 1.21% 153,719 3.6% 0.87% 26.06 37.36 New Motor Vehicle Sales 56,975 Residential Construction (building permits) 8,628 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $559,265,000 36,195 6,920 $469,039,000 52,718 8,031 $480,575,000 57.41 24.68 19.24 8.08 7.43 16.37 Deflated Nonresidential Construction New Business Corporations $559,265,000 4,880 $469,039,000 4,381 $480,575,000 4,731 19.24 11.39 16.37 3.15 Total State Revenues Deflated Total State Revenues $1,358,146,000 $1,107,590,000 $1,150,812,000 $775,640,200 $636,546,000 $682,164,800 22.62 21.85 18.02 13.70 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.14 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.06 MILLIONS 3.97 3.89 3.80 3.72 F M A M J J A S O N D J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 3,816,668 3,825,767 3,861,103 3,877,047 3,894,075 3,901,321 3,910,888 3,922,056 3,942,523 3,955,229 3,963,656 3,965,660 2000-2001 3,962,154 3,987,167 4,004,242 4,000,028 3,995,864 4,005,404 4,005,559 4,009,019 4,006,980 4,010,546 4,024,427 4,040,180 Retail Employment 787.7 1999-2000 2000-2001 762.0 736.2 THOUSANDS 710.5 684.7 659.0 F M A M J J A S O N D J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 688,782 691,702 696,718 702,588 707,123 712,012 715,731 715,285 724,116 729,968 740,637 733,876 2000-2001 735,540 740,516 746,262 744,202 743,872 746,516 746,312 745,849 753,997 758,707 735,734 732,765 Manufacturing Employment 622 1999-2000 2000-2001 610 598 THOUSANDS 586 573 561 F M A M J J A S O N D J 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 596,954 597,430 597,419 598,033 599,502 597,951 600,274 599,835 600,686 601,405 601,977 605,180 2000-2001 606,458 604,713 605,222 605,314 604,183 604,587 602,562 602,969 603,601 599,711 582,143 576,177 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 43.2 1999-2000 2000-2001 42.5 HOURS 41.8 41.1 40.4 39.7 F M A M J J A S O N D J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 41.1 41.7 41.9 42.1 42.0 41.7 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.1 42.4 41.9 2000-2001 41.6 41.3 41.7 40.6 41.1 41.3 41.5 40.8 41.5 41.1 40.8 40.7 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $562 1999-2000 2000-2001 $547 DOLLARS $532 $517 $502 $486 F M A M J J A S O N D J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 $503.27 512.21 518.51 526.24 522.68 517.85 514.01 524.12 528.36 539.58 544.48 537.38 2000-2001 $534.59 530.86 539.06 520.69 525.93 533.24 541.00 535.46 544.57 544.07 535.92 525.05 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $334 $325 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 DOLLARS $316 $307 $299 $290 F M A M J J A S O N D J Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan $305.94 310.43 311.98 316.63 314.49 310.65 307.61 312.16 314.12 320.61 323.52 318.54 $315.02 310.26 314.87 303.97 305.24 308.95 313.08 308.27 312.97 312.50 308.00 299.85 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 23.1 1999-2000 2000-2001 20.1 THOUSANDS 17.1 14.1 11.1 8.1 F M A M J J A S O N D J * Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 16,781 18,765 18,487 15,668 14,848 16,182 17,257 17,162 16,894 17,741 18,997 16,116 2000-2001 18,335 19,359 18,446 17,760 15,990 16,354 15,881 14,124 13,640 12,566 11,507 12,375 Initial Unemployment Claims 60.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 51.3 THOUSANDS 42.1 32.8 23.6 14.3 F M A M J J A S O N D J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 31,036 30,761 30,350 25,153 28,799 31,190 31,429 29,589 27,653 28,483 32,536 30,852 2000-2001 27,421 26,430 25,740 28,821 29,186 31,422 34,375 34,313 38,271 45,620 43,776 50,354 Continued Unemployment Claims 244.5 1999-2000 2000-2001 213.5 THOUSANDS 182.4 151.4 120.4 89.4 F M A M J J A S O N D J 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 138,336 143,998 138,920 123,364 156,918 128,964 162,340 132,319 139,033 154,977 138,052 153,719 2000-2001 134,472 122,763 131,083 148,971 135,417 151,092 152,030 147,905 184,770 164,381 167,498 211,150 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate * 4.8 1999-2000 2000-2001 4.3 PERCENTAGES 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 F M A M J J A S O N D J * Not Seasonally Adjusted Insured Unemployment Rate 1.41 1999-2000 2000-2001 1.25 PERCENTAGES 1.10 0.95 0.79 0.64 F M A M J J A S O N D J Monthly Data Not Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 4.1 % 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.6 2000-2001 3.5 % 3.4 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 0.85 % 0.88 0.84 0.87 0.88 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.87 2000-2001 0.83 % 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.95 1.04 1.21 1.19 New Motor Vehicle Sales 70 1999-2000 2000-2001 61 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1999-2000 2000-2001 THOUSANDS 52 44 35 27 F M A M J J A S O N D J Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 46,294 46,936 38,327 41,935 52,760 42,573 46,239 42,194 43,629 58,133 48,037 52,718 54,602 55,190 50,779 52,123 44,609 43,177 54,003 45,653 45,177 44,090 36,195 56,975 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 10,118 1999-2000 2000-2001 9,047 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 7,976 6,905 5,834 4,762 F M A M J J A S O N D J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 7,513 7,717 7,969 6,088 8,793 7,155 7,489 7,323 7,288 8,622 7,203 8,031 2000-2001 8,125 8,262 7,941 8,084 7,732 7,965 7,186 7,441 7,157 7,210 6,920 8,628 Nonresidential Construction $1034 1999-2000 2000-2001 $858 $681 MILLIONS $505 $329 $153 F M A M J J A S O N D J Deflated Nonresidential Construction $890 1999-2000 2000-2001 $740 $589 MILLIONS $439 $289 $139 F M A M J J A S O N D J 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 $394,777,000 781,907,000 500,787,000 487,330,000 545,301,000 572,688,000 539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 2000-2001 $358,535,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 $394,777,000 781,907,000 500,787,000 487,330,000 545,301,000 572,688,000 539,049,000 474,775,000 365,637,000 431,639,000 724,342,000 480,575,000 2000-2001 $358,535,000 555,717,000 789,116,000 548,667,000 654,704,000 426,077,000 393,006,000 586,325,000 519,280,000 365,900,000 469,039,000 559,265,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,765 1999-2000 2000-2001 5,255 CHARTERS 4,744 4,234 3,723 3,213 F M A M J J A S O N D J * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,579 1999-2000 2000-2001 $1,417 $1,254 MILLIONS $1,091 $929 $766 F M A M J J A S O N D J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 4,077 4,270 4,535 3,896 4,318 4,334 4,316 4,622 4,049 4,427 4,762 4,731 2000-2001 4,588 4,696 4,296 5,172 4,652 4,203 5,098 4,274 4,566 4,779 4,381 4,880 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 2000-2001 $985,028,000 974,892,000 1,018,366,000 1,014,950,000 1,020,119,000 1,013,915,000 1,152,734,000 956,358,000 1,082,132,000 1,104,184,000 1,046,748,000 1,150,812,000 $1,025,035,000 1,002,041,000 1,054,124,000 1,364,711,000 1,067,272,000 1,133,065,000 1,177,333,000 1,111,664,000 1,227,641,000 1,146,891,000 1,107,590,000 1,358,146,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $915 1999-2000 2000-2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $821 $727 $633 $539 $445 F M A M J J A S O N D J Month Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 1999-2000 $598,801,200 590,843,600 612,735,300 610,679,900 613,790,000 608,227,400 689,846,800 569,599,800 643,360,300 656,080,800 621,953,700 682,164,800 2000-2001 $604,027,700 585,646,400 615,726,600 796,678,900 619,426,600 656,468,700 681,327,000 639,990,800 705,540,800 658,754,200 636,546,000 775,640,200 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / March 2001 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to stephen.matta@dol.state.ga.us Stephen Matta Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 International Boulevard N.E. 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