GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends October 2000 Volume 6, Issue 8 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report August 2000 Data Volume 6, Issue 8 October 2000 Cover art: Wilcox County Courthouse, Abbeville - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Correction: The illustration appearing on last month's cover (V6,I7) was The Windsor Hotel, Americus - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 303031751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 JAN 58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 FEB 59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 MAR 59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 APR 60.0 63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 MAY 60.3 64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 JUN 60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 JUL 61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 AUG 61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.7 SEP 61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 OCT 61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 61.9 67.4 75.9 DEC 62.1 67.7 76.7 AVG 60.6 65.2 72.6 CPI RATE 6.7% 9.0% 13.3% 85.5 86.3 93.7 94.0 82.4 90.9 12.5% 8.9% 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 110.4 115.4 120.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 109.6 113.6 118.3 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 125.9 133.8 137.8 126.1 133.8 137.9 124.0 130.7 136.2 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 158.6 161.5 158.6 161.3 156.9 160.5 3.3% 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS CPI reflects 0.1 percent increase in inflation for August The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent from July to August, reaching an unadjusted level of 172.7. The seasonally adjusted index declined 0.1 percent for the month. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.1 percent during August, before seasonal adjustment. The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the fifth month in a row. The compound annual rate of increase for the core index is presently 2.5 percent. The food and beverages index increased 0.2 percent in August. The index for food at home, which rose 0.7 percent in July, increased 0.3 percent in August. Fresh fruits and fresh vegetables rose 0.5 and 2.3 percent, respectively. The indexes for cereal and bakery products and for dairy products each increased 0.3 percent. The other two components of the food The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change 4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7% and beverages index--food away from home and alcoholic beverages--each increased 0.2 percent in August. Housing costs increased 0.2 percent in August, following a 0.4 percent rise in July. The index for fuels and utilities, which rose sharply in both June and July, turned down in August. The index for fuel oil decreased 0.1 percent in August, following a 20.5 percent rise over the past seven months. The index for natural gas, which rose 20.1 percent in the first seven months of 2000, declined 0.7 percent in August. Electricity prices were unchanged in August. The transportation component declined for the second consecutive month, down 1.1 percent in August. The index for gasoline fell 6.0 percent, following a 2.0 percent decrease in July. Despite the recent declines, gasoline prices have advanced 11.2 percent since December. Public transportation costs grew 0.9 percent, largely due to a 1.5 percent increase in airline fares during the month.. The index for apparel rose 0.2 percent in August, its first monthly increase since March. Medical care costs rose 0.4 percent. Drugs and medical supplies rose 0.3 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.4 percent. Professional medical services increased 0.4 percent during August. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.0 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 167.8 138.6 109.4 80.2 1987-88 = 100 51.0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 August Leading Index reports strong 0.6 percent growth Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6 percent in August to 164.72 from a revised 163.70. Some adjustment in the Index model can be attributed to the annual revision of benchmark data. Another, minor revision will occur early next year with the release of January data, as new seasonal factors will be produced at that time. Continued growth is anticipated during the next two to three months as OPEC increases oil production and petroleum prices soften. The Leading Index has grown 1.7 percent during the eight months of 2000, and 4.5 percent since August Recent 12 Months 170.0 Leading Coincident 166.0 162.0 158.0 154.0 1987-88 = 100 150.0 The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. of last year. State revenues increased two percent during August, and payroll employment was up 0.1 percent. The Secretary of State's office reported 4,971 new corporate charters during the month. The Index of Coincident Indicators was unchanged in August, at a level of 163.2. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent, while retail employment grew 0.2 percent. Manufacturing hours were unchanged, suggesting that productivity is continuing at the current pace and demand for goods and services is steady. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary August 2000 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Aug 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 1999 Percent Change Jul 2000 to Aug 2000 Percent Change Aug 1999 to Aug 2000 Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment 4,011,000 749,100 604,600 4,008,000 747,500 605,000 3,913,000 715,500 599,800 Manufacturing Workweek 41.2 41.3 41.4 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $533.15 $534.90 $524.94 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $309.73 $309.00 $314.24 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled Initial Unemployment Claims Continued Unemployment Claims 15,558 34,816 138,939 16,083 30,821 154,331 16,961 31,857 149,337 Unemployment Rate Insured Unemployment Rate 3.8% 0.94% 3.8% 0.90% 3.9% 0.91% New Motor Vehicle Sales 52,154 43,013 44,850 Residential Construction (building permits) 7,203 7,872 7,416 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $389,000,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $371,600,000 $407,600,000 $336,400,000 $518,000,000 $446,800,000 New Business Corporations 4,971 4,312 4,244 Total State Revenues $1,167,024,000 $1,142,529,000 $1,047,793,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $282,130,000 $625,000,000 $948,860,000 0.07 0.21 -0.07 -0.24 -0.33 0.24 -3.26 12.96 -9.97 2.50 4.70 0.80 -0.48 1.56 -1.44 -8.27 9.29 -6.96 21.25 -8.50 -4.56 10.46 15.28 2.14 -54.86 16.29 -2.87 -24.90 -16.83 17.13 11.38 -70.27 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.14 1998-99 1999-2000 4.04 MILLIONS 3.94 3.84 3.74 3.64 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 3,770,000 3,780,000 3,790,000 3,795,000 3,810,000 3,828,000 3,844,000 3,863,000 3,875,000 3,886,000 3,904,000 3,913,000 1999-2000 3,920,000 3,941,000 3,950,000 3,953,000 3,976,000 3,983,000 3,992,000 4,005,000 3,998,000 4,003,000 4,008,000 4,011,000 Retail Employment 782.1 1998-99 1999-2000 756.7 731.3 THOUSANDS 705.9 680.5 655.1 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 682,900 686,000 686,700 686,000 688,300 692,900 694,000 698,700 702,800 707,000 713,300 715,500 1999-2000 719,100 722,400 726,300 729,500 735,200 739,200 742,500 743,600 744,400 743,600 747,500 749,100 Manufacturing Employment 612 1998-99 1999-2000 608 604 THOUSANDS 600 596 592 S O N D J F M A M J J A 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 597,700 598,600 599,300 599,300 596,900 597,500 598,100 598,900 598,600 599,400 598,500 599,800 1999-2000 599,500 600,600 601,400 602,900 604,900 607,000 605,400 606,700 605,900 604,300 605,000 604,600 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 42.5 1998-99 1999-2000 42.2 41.8 HOURS 41.4 41.1 40.7 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 41.3 41.8 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.4 41.7 41.8 42.1 42.0 41.8 41.4 1999-2000 41.7 41.7 42.0 42.0 41.9 41.9 41.4 41.6 41.3 41.1 41.3 41.2 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $554 1998-99 1999-2000 $540 DOLLARS $527 $513 $499 $486 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 $501.67 506.24 502.19 505.01 507.97 506.28 513.11 517.85 525.18 524.95 519.77 524.94 1999-2000 $524.90 528.13 537.48 537.34 537.65 537.45 531.60 538.14 531.12 528.24 534.90 533.15 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings DOLLARS $327 $321 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 $316 $310 $305 $299 S O N D J F M A M J J A Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $306.60 308.65 306.21 308.15 309.22 307.82 311.04 311.76 315.88 315.86 312.08 314.24 $312.56 313.95 319.36 319.33 318.78 316.79 310.79 314.55 309.84 306.56 309.00 309.73 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 21.7 1998-99 1999-2000 19.9 THOUSANDS 18.1 16.3 14.5 12.7 S O N D J F M A M J J A * Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 16,756 17,316 16,145 16,624 15,315 16,955 17,943 17,956 15,439 15,079 15,867 16,961 1999-2000 16,704 16,616 18,240 19,722 17,713 18,448 18,459 17,945 17,612 16,412 16,083 15,588 Initial Unemployment Claims 41.7 1998-99 1999-2000 37.6 THOUSANDS 33.6 29.5 25.4 21.3 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 30,530 30,248 33,217 36,711 33,635 31,446 32,161 32,545 27,797 30,165 30,410 31,857 1999-2000 31,313 28,019 31,660 29,871 26,467 27,757 27,537 27,530 31,971 30,503 30,821 34,816 Continued Unemployment Claims 171.8 1998-99 1999-2000 158.8 THOUSANDS 145.9 132.9 119.9 106.9 S O N D J F M A M J J A 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 135,335 131,682 146,825 130,937 128,268 137,748 142,817 142,618 139,669 151,244 131,037 149,337 1999-2000 146,091 142,670 156,445 132,836 142,232 134,243 122,362 133,885 135,971 130,331 154,331 138,939 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate 4.8 1998-99 1999-2000 4.4 PERCENTAGES 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.6 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 1999-2000 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 3.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% Insured Unemployment Rate 0.99 1998-99 1999-2000 0.95 PERCENTAGES 0.90 0.86 0.81 0.77 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 0.87% 0.86% 0.86% 0.87% 0.93% 0.88% 0.89% 0.87% 0.90% 0.91% 0.91% 0.91% 1999-2000 0.89% 0.89% 0.89% 0.87% 0.82% 0.82% 0.84% 0.88% 0.88% 0.91% 0.90% 0.94% New Motor Vehicle Sales THOUSANDS 66 1998-99 1999-2000 59 51 43 36 28 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 41,962 44,250 46,873 46,592 50,651 48,474 46,020 36,899 40,899 53,392 41,786 44,850 1999-2000 41,769 43,879 48,767 49,852 50,512 56,285 53,945 48,497 50,717 46,017 43,013 52,154 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 8,803 1998-99 1999-2000 8,337 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 7,871 7,405 6,939 6,473 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 7,595 8,153 8,166 8,209 7,083 7,440 7,234 7,502 7,264 7,266 7,015 7,416 1999-2000 7,364 7,432 7,680 7,657 8,215 7,991 7,729 7,553 7,884 7,842 7,872 7,203 Nonresidential Construction $700 1998-99 1999-2000 $611 $523 MILLIONS $434 $345 $256 S O N D J F M A M J J A Deflated Nonresidential Construction $613 1998-99 1999-2000 $539 $466 MILLIONS $392 $319 $245 S O N D J F M A M J J A 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 $532,800,000 422,100,000 509,700,000 476,200,000 532,600,000 498,900,000 506,600,000 528,300,000 448,000,000 482,900,000 545,700,000 518,000,000 1999-2000 $482,300,000 372,900,000 400,600,000 473,800,000 481,400,000 455,700,000 560,800,000 492,200,000 508,300,000 582,700,000 407,600,000 389,000,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 $501,300,000 395,600,000 475,100,000 442,300,000 490,900,000 460,200,000 467,400,000 486,700,000 413,800,000 447,100,000 497,800,000 446,800,000 1999-2000 $436,200,000 335,800,000 358,600,000 419,900,000 427,100,000 404,000,000 498,600,000 447,100,000 453,200,000 523,300,000 336,400,000 371,600,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,663 1998-99 1999-2000 5,153 CHARTERS 4,642 4,132 3,621 3,111 S O N D J F M A M J J A * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,259 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,180 $1,101 MILLIONS $1,022 $943 $863 S O N D J F M A M J J A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep O ct Nov D ec J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 3,695 3,731 3,767 3,850 3,670 4,009 4,179 4,534 3,835 4,319 4,375 4,244 1999-2000 4,549 4,258 4,679 4,783 4,637 4,523 4,585 4,283 5,071 4,644 4,312 4,971 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Sep O ct Nov D ec J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 $1,002,054,000 950,333,000 991,237,000 1,005,616,000 1,048,803,000 1,001,236,000 1,014,644,000 1,018,053,000 1,050,280,000 993,750,000 1,033,527,000 1,047,793,000 1999-2000 $1,059,529,000 1,095,392,000 1,086,553,000 1,045,805,000 1,063,404,000 1,053,395,000 1,055,272,000 1,071,156,000 1,100,204,000 1,052,065,000 1,142,529,000 1,167,024,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $708 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Averages Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $676 $643 $611 $578 $546 S O N D J F M A M J J A Month Sep O ct Nov D ec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug 1998-99 $571,000,000 995,090,000 644,000,000 246,010,000 639,000,000 233,720,000 609,000,000 260,180,000 615,000,000 765,450,000 613,000,000 948,860,000 1999-2000 $637,000,000 472,320,000 595,000,000 282,790,000 630,000,000 496,740,000 620,000,000 394,810,000 616,000,000 341,910,000 625,000,000 282,130,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / October 2000 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to stephen.matta@dol.state.ga.us Stephen Matta Workforce 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