GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends September 2000 Volume 6, Issue 7 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report July 2000 Data Volume 6, Issue 7 September 2000 Cover art: Windsor Hotel, Americus - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 303031751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 JAN 58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 FEB 59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 MAR 59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 APR 60.0 63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 MAY 60.3 64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 JUN 60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 JUL 61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 AUG 61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 SEP 61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 OCT 61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 61.9 DEC 62.1 AVG 60.6 CPI RATE 6.7% 67.4 67.7 65.2 9.0% 75.9 76.7 72.6 13.3% 85.5 86.3 82.4 12.5% 93.7 94.0 90.9 8.9% 98.0 97.6 96.5 3.8% 101.2 101.3 99.6 3.8% 105.3 105.3 103.9 3.9% 109.0 109.3 107.6 3.8% 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Inflation increased a modest 0.2 percent in July CPI The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent from June to July, reaching an unadjusted level of 172.6. The seasonally adjusted index was also up 0.2 percent for the month. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.1 percent during July, before seasonal adjustment. The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the fourth month in a row. The compound annual rate of increase for the core index is presently at 2.2 percent. Among the biggest non-energy increases in the July CPI were education and communications. Telephone services increased 0.8 percent for the month, while education costs increased 0.5 percent. In part, some of this increase can be attributed to higher tuition costs, raised at the beginning of the fiscal year. The food and beverage index also increased significantly in July, jumping The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change 4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7% 0.5 percent for the month. Bakery products were up 1.0 percent, erasing the 0.7 percent decline in the previous report. Fruit and vegetable prices were also up 1.0 percent and meats increased 0.5 percent. As might be expected, energy prices continued to climb during July, with natural gas and electrical utilities up 2.0 percent. Fuel oils increased 1.6 percent during the month. Prices at the gas pump dropped in July, with gasoline showing declines of 2.0 percent and motor fuels overall declining 1.9 percent. Housing costs grew an additional 0.4 percent for July, largely driven by the cost of utilities. Hotel guests paid 0.5 percent less for their accommodations during the month, while residential rent increased 0.4 percent. Apparel prices continued the downward trend, falling 1.0 percent in July, after a 0.6 percent decline in June. The largest contributions to the decline were footwear which dropped 2.3 percent, and infants' and toddlers' apparel which fell 1.8 percent. Apparel prices have declined since April. Medical care costs increased 0.3 percent in July. The cost for professional services increased a modest 0.2 percent, while hospital services cost 0.6 percent more than in June. Since July of 1999, the cost of hospital services has increased 6.3 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 175.0 Leading indicators 164.8 Coincident indicators 154.6 144.4 134.2 124.0 113.8 103.6 93.4 1987-88 = 100 83.2 73.0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Leading Index continues growth of 0.3 percent in July Editor's Note: All indicators have been seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3 percent in July to 163.06 from a revised 162.53. The July index growth is good news, suggesting that the State's economy will continue to be stable and possibly see modest strengthening during the third quarter. The average growth in the Leading Index for second quarter was a modest 0.2 percent, compared to first quarter's 1.10 percent. An analysis of historical trends suggests the Leading Index will grow by 0.5 percent during third quarter. The index has increased 1.7 percent since December and 4.4 percent since July of 1999. The Coincident Indicators Index was relatively unchanged during July, reaching a level of 162.80 from a revised 162.74 for June. Leading Indicators forecast economic activity three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. Among the active indicators that comprise the Leading Index, the number of new corporate charters filed in July declined 6.95 percent, seasonally adjusted. New motor vehicle registrations were also weaker, dropping 4.15 percent during the month. Consumer sentiment suggests a "wait and see" attitude with a hopeful eye toward the new model year cars, available this Fall. Surveys suggest that cars with higher fuel efficiency will be in great demand. Residential construction was up 0.5 percent in July, while nonresidential construction showed significant declines. The value of nonresidential construction fell 31 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Initial claims for unemployment benefits grew 0.6 percent in July. In the Coincident Index, State revenues increased 7.4 percent, while nonagricultural employment was flat. Retail employment grew 0.5 percent in July, and manufacturing employment was off 0.1 percent for the month. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary July 2000 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted July 2000 June 2000 Percent Change June 2000 to July 1999 July 2000 Percent Change July 1999 to July 2000 Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment 3,999,000 747,400 3,999,000 743,600 3,905,000 0.00 2.41 713,000 0.51 4.82 Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Workweek 603,600 41.3 604,000 41.1 598,800 41.8 -0.07 0.49 0.80 -1.20 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings Deflated Manufacturing Earnings Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled Initial Unemployment Claims Continued Unemployment Claims $533.34 $309.00 16,128 30,426 153,820 $528.21 $306.56 16,434 30,244 130,045 $520.24 $312.08 15,904 30,071 130,684 0.97 0.80 -1.86 0.60 18.28 2.52 -0.99 1.41 1.18 17.70 Unemployment Rate 3.8% 4.1% 3.7% Insured Unemployment Rate New Motor Vehicle Sales Residential Construction (building permits) Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) Deflated Nonresidential Construction New Business Corporations 0.89% 42,729 7,978 $411,500,000 $360,300,000 4,295 0.90% 44,579 7,933 $597,100,000 $523,300,000 4,616 0.90% 41,507 7,092 $550,600,000 $497,800,000 4,363 -4.15 0.57 -31.08 -31.15 -6.95 2.94 12.49 -25.26 -27.62 -1.56 Total State Revenues $1,142,968,000 $1,064,690,000 $1,037,833,000 7.35 10.13 Deflated Total State Revenues $662,206,000 $617,928,000 $622,575,000 7.17 6.37 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.14 1998-99 1999-2000 4.04 MILLIONS 3.94 3.84 3.74 3.64 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 3,761,000 3,770,000 3,779,000 3,790,000 3,795,000 3,810,000 3,828,000 3,844,000 3,863,000 3,874,000 3,885,000 3,905,000 1999-2000 3,914,000 3,920,000 3,940,000 3,950,000 3,953,000 3,976,000 3,984,000 3,992,000 4,005,000 3,997,000 3,999,000 3,999,000 Retail Employment 777.0 1998-99 1999-2000 751.6 726.2 THOUSANDS 700.8 675.4 650.0 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 680,000 682,900 685,900 686,700 686,000 688,300 693,200 694,200 698,700 702,800 706,900 713,000 1999-2000 715,600 718,900 722,300 726,200 729,500 738,800 739,500 742,700 743,600 744,300 743,600 747,400 Manufacturing Employment 612 1998-99 1999-2000 608 604 THOUSANDS 600 595 591 A S O N D J F M A M J J 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 596,300 597,600 598,500 599,200 599,300 597,000 597,500 598,200 598,900 598,500 599,200 598,800 1999-2000 599,900 599,400 600,500 601,300 602,900 605,000 607,000 605,500 606,700 605,800 604,000 603,600 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 42.5 1998-99 1999-2000 42.2 41.8 HOURS 41.4 41.1 40.7 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 41.7 41.4 41.8 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.4 41.8 41.8 42.1 42.0 41.8 1999-2000 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.0 42.0 41.9 41.9 41.4 41.6 41.3 41.1 41.3 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $554 1998-99 1999-2000 $540 DOLLARS $527 $513 $499 $486 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 $503.24 501.59 506.19 502.19 505.06 508.05 506.37 513.22 518.14 524.99 524.96 520.24 1999-2000 $525.10 524.78 528.07 537.49 537.44 537.78 537.60 531.76 538.51 530.75 528.21 533.34 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings DOLLARS $327 $321 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 $316 $310 $305 $299 A S O N D J F M A M J J Aug $307.98 $314.24 Sep 306.60 312.56 Oct 308.65 313.95 Nov 306.21 319.36 Dec 308.15 319.33 Jan 309.22 318.78 Feb 307.82 316.79 Mar 311.04 310.79 Apr 311.76 314.55 May 315.88 309.84 Jun 315.86 306.56 Jul 312.08 309.00 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 21.7 1998-99 1999-2000 19.9 THOUSANDS 18.1 16.3 14.5 12.7 A S O N D J F M A M J J * Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 41.7 1998-99 1999-2000 37.6 THOUSANDS 33.6 29.5 25.4 21.3 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 16,759 16,733 17,299 16,146 16,621 15,359 16,991 17,951 17,970 15,453 15,095 15,904 1999-2000 16,836 16,677 16,597 18,240 19,718 17,769 18,496 18,469 17,960 17,631 16,434 16,128 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 28,608 30,575 30,284 33,255 36,731 33,626 31,382 32,108 32,447 28,158 29,939 30,071 1999-2000 32,305 31,368 28,060 31,704 29,891 26,460 27,703 27,494 27,442 32,479 30,244 30,426 Continued Unemployment Claims 174.8 1998-99 1999-2000 160.1 THOUSANDS 145.4 130.7 116.0 101.3 A S O N D J F M A M J J 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 148,505 135,358 131,647 146,623 130,822 128,141 137,539 142,641 142,338 139,366 150,988 130,684 1999-2000 152,173 146,014 142,528 156,091 132,614 141,961 133,909 122,161 133,555 135,082 130,045 153,820 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate 4.8 1998-99 1999-2000 4.4 PERCENTAGES 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.6 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 1999-2000 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 3.3% 4.1% 3.8% Insured Unemployment Rate 0.99 1998-99 1999-2000 0.95 PERCENTAGES 0.90 0.86 0.81 0.77 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 0.87% 0.88% 0.86% 0.86% 0.88% 0.93% 0.88% 0.88% 0.87% 0.89% 0.90% 0.90% 1999-2000 0.93% 0.90% 0.90% 0.89% 0.87% 0.82% 0.82% 0.84% 0.88% 0.87% 0.90% 0.89% New Motor Vehicle Sales THOUSANDS 66 1998-99 1999-2000 59 51 43 36 28 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 40,868 41,852 44,132 46,955 46,827 51,145 48,842 46,277 37,135 40,882 51,899 41,507 1999-2000 45,402 41,644 43,749 49,383 50,136 51,048 56,788 54,325 48,885 50,737 44,579 42,729 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 8,900 1998-99 1999-2000 8,415 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 7,929 7,444 6,959 6,473 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 7,468 7,571 8,140 8,169 8,198 7,072 7,440 7,245 7,531 7,282 7,269 7,092 1999-2000 7,231 7,334 7,422 7,646 7,648 8,202 7,993 7,744 7,591 7,944 7,933 7,978 Nonresidential Construction $700 1998-99 1999-2000 $611 $523 MILLIONS $434 $345 $256 A S O N D J F M A M J J Deflated Nonresidential Construction $613 1998-99 1999-2000 $539 $466 MILLIONS $392 $319 $245 A S O N D J F M A M J J 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 Aug $523,400,000 Sep 534,400,000 Oct 423,300,000 Nov 510,300,000 Dec 477,200,000 Jan 532,600,000 Feb 499,800,000 Mar 509,000,000 Apr 532,000,000 May 454,400,000 Jun 493,600,000 Jul 550,600,000 1999-2000 $495,000,000 483,800,000 374,100,000 401,300,000 471,500,000 481,800,000 456,900,000 564,900,000 508,400,000 516,200,000 597,100,000 411,500,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 Aug $491,900,000 Sep 501,300,000 Oct 395,600,000 Nov 475,100,000 Dec 442,300,000 Jan 490,900,000 Feb 460,200,000 Mar 467,400,000 Apr 486,700,000 May 413,800,000 Jun 447,100,000 Jul 497,800,000 1999-2000 $446,800,000 436,200,000 335,800,000 358,600,000 419,900,000 427,100,000 404,000,000 498,600,000 447,100,000 453,200,000 523,300,000 360,300,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,663 1998-99 1999-2000 5,153 CHARTERS 4,642 4,132 3,621 3,111 A S O N D J F M A M J J * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,223 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,153 $1,084 MILLIONS $1,015 $945 $876 A S O N D J F M A M J J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 3,716 3,689 3,735 3,770 3,852 3,670 4,005 4,171 4,521 3,816 4,298 4,363 1999-2000 4,336 4,535 4,264 4,684 4,787 4,636 4,518 4,574 4,268 5,040 4,616 4,295 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,016,312,000 $1,049,010,000 968,837,000 1,060,373,000 953,234,000 1,095,969,000 993,963,000 1,087,869,000 1,007,950,000 1,047,276,000 1,050,261,000 1,063,648,000 1,002,233,000 1,052,810,000 1,016,013,000 1,054,561,000 1,020,383,000 1,070,483,000 1,059,479,000 1,096,295,000 989,360,000 1,064,690,000 1,037,833,000 1,142,968,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $695 $665 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Averages Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 MILLIONS $635 $606 $576 $546 A S O N D J F M A M J J Aug $621,978,000 $627,774,000 Sep 592,199,000 631,550,000 Oct 581,240,000 651,587,000 Nov 606,075,000 646,387,000 Dec 614,979,000 622,267,000 Jan 639,234,000 630,497,000 Feb 609,260,000 620,395,000 Mar 615,765,000 616,342,000 Apr 613,949,000 625,282,000 May 637,472,000 639,985,000 Jun 595,283,000 617,928,000 Jul 622,575,000 662,206,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / September 2000 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to stephen.matta@dol.state.ga.us Stephen Matta Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 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