GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends )KCKIJ Volume 6, Issue 6 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report June 2000 Data Volume 6, Issue 6 August 2000 Cover art: Tybee Island Lighthouse - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 JAN 58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 FEB 59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 MAR 59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 APR 60.0 63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 MAY 60.3 64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.3 JUN 60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 JUL 61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 AUG 61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 SEP 61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 OCT 61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 61.9 DEC 62.1 AVG 60.6 CPI RATE 6.7% 67.4 67.7 65.2 9.0% 75.9 76.7 72.6 13.3% 85.5 86.3 82.4 12.5% 93.7 94.0 90.9 8.9% 98.0 97.6 96.5 3.8% 101.2 101.3 99.6 3.8% 105.3 105.3 103.9 3.9% 109.0 109.3 107.6 3.8% 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 144.5 2.7% 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 160.5 1.7% 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Inflation pressure builds as June CPI increases 0.6 percent The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI) rose 0.6 percent from May to June, to an unadjusted level of 172.3. The seasonally adjusted index was also up 0.6 percent for the month. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also rose 0.6 percent in June, prior to seasonal adjustment. The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the third month in a row. The compound annual rate of increase for the core index is presently at 2.0 percent. The upswing in consumer prices comes as disappointing news after the modest increases in April and May, signs that the Federal Reserve action might have been effective in slowing growth-related inflation. However, the second quarter GDP data reflected stronger economic growth than expected by concensus economists. On a positive note, June consumption figures indicate that consumer spending The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change 4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7% habits have slowed, which is a key concern for the Federal Reserve board members. Among the heaviest increases in the June CPI was energy. Motor fuel increased 0.8 percent for the month, while household energy prices increased almost 3.0 percent. While some regions of the country experienced declines at the gas pump, other areas such as the Mid-West saw higher prices at the pump than the national average. The food and beverages index advanced 0.1 percent in June. A 0.7 percent decline in bakery products and in the fruits and vegetables category helped to offset the 0.5 percent increase in meats. Meanwhile, the cost for dining out grew by a modest 0.2 percent during June. Along with high energy costs, the cost of rent and mortgage rates pushed overall housing costs up 0.5 percent in June. Household operation costs grew 0.5 percent during the month In addition to higher pump prices, transit riders paid a full 1.0 percent more for public transportation during June, thus raising the overall transportation index by 1.8 percent. Apparel prices continued to show decline, dropping 0.6 percent in June, following a 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent decrease in May and April, respectively. Medical care costs increased 0.4 percent for June. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 175 Leading indicators 164.8 Coincident indicators 154.6 144.4 134.2 124 113.8 103.6 93.4 1987-88 = 100 83.2 73 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Leading Index regains territory - up 0.3% in June Editor's Note: All indicators have been seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3 percent in June to 162.50 from a revised 161.97. While the June figure is a positive sign for the State's economy, growth during the second quarter has been weak. The average growth in the Leading Index for second quarter was a modest 0.2 percent, compared to first quarter's 1.10 percent. The index has increased 1.3 percent since December and 2.7 percent since June of 1999. The Coincident Indicators Index was relatively unchanged during June, at 162.83 from a revised 162.77 for May. Leading Indicators forecast economic activity three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. Among the active indicators that comprise the Leading Index, the number of new corporate charters filed in June was up 18.3 percent. New motor vehicle registrations were up 3.5 percent during the month, indicating a continuing demand for new cars and, with that, a positive signal for manufacturing employment in that sector. Construction was mixed for June, as residential construction showed continued growth, while nonresidential construction declined. The number of new housing units built dur- ing June increased by 4.7 percent. Nonresidential construction slowed, delcining 0.7 percent during the month. Initial claims for unemployment benefits grew 16.2 percent in June. Contributions to the Coincident Index were mixed, with State revenues continuing to show strength for a fourth consecutive month. Total collections of State revenues was up 2.5 percent, after seasonal adjustment. The employment figures for June were mixed. Retail employment erased the May delcines and grew by 1.0 percent in June. Manufacturing employment was off 0.1 percent during June. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary June 2000 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted June 2000 May 2000 Percent Percent Change Change May 2000 June 1999 to to June 1999 June 2000 June 2000 Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Workweek Weekly Manufacturing Earnings Deflated Manufacturing Earnings Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled Initial Unemployment Claims Continued Unemployment Claims 3,997,000 744,000 605,800 41.2 $528.33 $308.42 17,824 32,068 129,625 4,005,000 743,500 606,700 41.7 $530.14 $309.66 18,293 27,587 132,389 3,874,000 702,500 598,500 42.1 $524.24 $315.43 15,595 27,854 139,031 -0.20 0.07 -0.15 -1.20 -0.34 -0.40 -2.56 16.24 -2.09 3.18 5.91 1.22 -2.14 0.78 -2.22 14.29 15.13 -6.77 Unemployment Rate Insured Unemployment Rate New Motor Vehicle Sales Residential Construction (building permits) Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) Deflated Nonresidential Construction New Business Corporations 4.1% 0.87% 51,215 7,952 $524,000,000 $460,000,000 5,109 3.3% 0.88% 49,470 7,598 $527,500,000 $464,000,000 4,317 3.6% 0.90% 41,203 7,273 $460,500,000 $419,000,000 3,859 3.53 4.66 -0.66 -0.86 18.35 24.30 9.34 13.79 9.79 32.39 Total State Revenues Deflated Total State Revenues $1,096,040,000 $1,069,776,000 $1,057,946,000 2.46 3.60 $639,837,000 $624,869,000 $636,550,000 2.40 0.52 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.14 1998-99 1999-2000 4.03 MILLIONS 3.93 3.82 3.72 3.61 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 3,736,000 3,743,000 3,761,000 3,769,000 3,779,000 3,790,000 3,796,000 3,811,000 3,829,000 3,844,000 3,863,000 3,874,000 1999-2000 3,885,000 3,904,000 3,914,000 3,919,000 3,940,000 3,950,000 3,953,000 3,977,000 3,984,000 3,992,000 4,005,000 3,997,000 Retail Employment 777.0 1998-99 1999-2000 751.6 726.2 THOUSANDS 700.8 675.4 650.0 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 678,900 678,900 679,900 682,800 685,800 686,800 685,800 688,300 693,400 694,100 698,500 702,500 1999-2000 706,400 711,000 715,400 718,500 722,400 726,300 729,200 738,800 739,700 742,600 743,500 744,000 Manufacturing Employment 613 1998-99 1999-2000 608 603 THOUSANDS 597 592 587 J A S O N D J F M A M J 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 593,800 594,900 596,300 597,600 598,500 599,200 599,400 597,100 597,600 598,200 598,900 598,500 1999-2000 599,200 598,500 599,900 599,400 600,500 601,400 603,100 605,200 607,100 605,600 606,700 605,800 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 42.5 1998-99 1999-2000 42.2 41.8 HOURS 41.5 41.1 40.8 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 42.0 42.1 41.7 41.3 41.8 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.4 41.7 41.9 42.1 1999-2000 42.1 41.8 41.2 41.2 41.7 42.0 42.0 41.9 41.9 41.4 41.7 41.2 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $554 1998-99 1999-2000 $540 DOLLARS $527 $513 $499 $486 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 $507.07 507.55 503.44 501.76 506.28 502.22 505.03 507.99 506.26 512.99 518.14 524.24 1999-2000 $525.28 520.58 525.43 525.01 528.17 537.51 537.37 537.71 537.49 531.50 530.14 528.33 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings DOLLARS $327 $321 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 $316 $310 $305 $299 J A S O N D J F M A M J Jul $310.28 $316.05 Aug 310.70 312.29 Sep 307.84 314.44 Oct 306.45 312.69 Nov 308.59 314.01 Dec 306.23 319.38 Jan 308.27 319.29 Feb 309.18 318.74 Mar 307.76 316.73 Apr 310.90 310.64 May 311.76 309.66 Jun 315.43 308.42 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 21.7 1998-99 1999-2000 19.9 THOUSANDS 18.1 16.3 14.5 12.7 J A S O N D J F M A M J * Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 41.7 1998-99 1999-2000 37.6 THOUSANDS 33.6 29.5 25.4 21.3 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 16,625 16,617 16,748 16,738 17,300 16,140 16,623 15,358 16,976 17,949 18,024 15,506 1999-2000 15,170 15,702 16,846 16,686 16,602 18,239 19,729 17,782 18,486 18,476 18,027 17,707 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 31,473 29,457 28,683 30,648 30,323 33,243 36,577 33,577 31,476 32,186 32,586 27,854 1999-2000 30,155 29,959 32,406 31,457 28,103 31,692 29,749 26,420 27,798 27,578 27,587 32,068 Continued Unemployment Claims 174.8 1998-99 1999-2000 160.1 THOUSANDS 145.4 130.7 116.0 101.3 J A S O N D J F M A M J 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 140,158 148,028 148,506 135,418 131,714 146,743 130,870 128,006 137,112 142,153 141,209 139,031 1999-2000 148,840 134,763 152,133 146,036 142,546 156,146 132,554 141,730 133,471 121,720 132,389 129,625 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate 4.8 1998-99 1999-2000 4.4 PERCENTAGES 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.6 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 1999-2000 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 3.3% 4.1% Insured Unemployment Rate 0.99 1998-99 1999-2000 0.95 PERCENTAGES 0.90 0.86 0.81 0.77 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 0.88% 0.89% 0.87% 0.88% 0.86% 0.86% 0.88% 0.93% 0.88% 0.88% 0.87% 0.90% 1999-2000 0.90% 0.90% 0.93% 0.90% 0.90% 0.89% 0.87% 0.82% 0.82% 0.84% 0.88% 0.87% New Motor Vehicle Sales THOUSANDS 66 1998-99 1999-2000 59 51 43 36 28 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 40,183 43,712 40,669 41,918 44,150 46,798 46,630 50,754 48,855 46,374 37,502 41,203 1999-2000 43,702 39,528 45,185 41,757 43,818 48,573 49,985 50,724 56,845 54,497 49,470 51,215 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 8,900 1998-99 1999-2000 8,373 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 7,847 7,320 6,794 6,267 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 6,965 7,253 7,466 7,576 8,141 8,172 8,204 7,081 7,450 7,254 7,534 7,273 1999-2000 7,253 7,023 7,230 7,344 7,426 7,656 7,659 8,221 8,011 7,760 7,598 7,952 Nonresidential Construction $700 1998-99 1999-2000 $611 $523 MILLIONS $434 $345 $256 J A S O N D J F M A M J Deflated Nonresidential Construction $596 1998-99 1999-2000 $526 $456 MILLIONS $385 $315 $245 J A S O N D J F M A M J 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 Jul $454,300,000 Aug 421,500,000 Sep 523,600,000 Oct 534,300,000 Nov 423,100,000 Dec 510,100,000 Jan 477,000,000 Feb 533,400,000 Mar 502,500,000 Apr 509,300,000 May 533,900,000 Jun 460,500,000 1999-2000 $503,500,000 518,500,000 495,500,000 484,100,000 374,300,000 401,500,000 471,700,000 483,200,000 459,500,000 571,400,000 527,500,000 524,000,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 Jul $429,000,000 Aug 397,000,000 Sep 492,000,000 Oct 501,000,000 Nov 395,000,000 Dec 475,000,000 Jan 442,000,000 Feb 492,000,000 Mar 463,000,000 Apr 468,000,000 May 488,000,000 Jun 419,000,000 1999-2000 $456,000,000 469,000,000 447,000,000 437,000,000 336,000,000 359,000,000 420,000,000 428,000,000 406,000,000 504,000,000 464,000,000 460,000,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,663 1998-99 1999-2000 5,153 CHARTERS 4,642 4,132 3,621 3,111 J A S O N D J F M A M J * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,173 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,116 $1,059 MILLIONS $1,003 $946 $889 J A S O N D J F M A M J Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 3,933 3,699 3,727 3,677 3,726 3,763 3,842 3,672 4,017 4,189 4,564 3,859 1999-2000 4,339 4,204 4,360 4,517 4,253 4,675 4,780 4,643 4,535 4,601 4,317 5,109 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,059,188,000 1,028,208,000 1,016,518,000 969,468,000 953,170,000 994,018,000 1,008,178,000 1,050,625,000 1,002,546,000 1,016,142,000 1,020,040,000 1,057,946,000 $987,076,000 1,039,995,000 1,048,449,000 1,059,966,000 1,095,779,000 1,087,873,000 1,047,538,000 1,064,202,000 1,053,428,000 1,054,870,000 1,069,776,000 1,096,040,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $687 $660 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Averages Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 MILLIONS $632 $605 $577 $550 J A S O N D J F M A M J Jul $644,246,000 $593,909,000 Aug 630,939,000 623,872,000 Sep 622,985,000 627,438,000 Oct 592,897,000 631,308,000 Nov 581,555,000 651,474,000 Dec 606,351,000 646,389,000 Jan 615,646,000 622,423,000 Feb 639,455,000 630,825,000 Mar 609,450,000 620,759,000 Apr 615,844,000 616,523,000 May 613,742,000 624,869,000 Jun 636,550,000 639,837,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / August 2000 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to stephen.matta@dol.state.ga.us Stephen Matta Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 International Boulevard N.E. 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