GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends June 2000 Volume 6, Issue 4 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report April 2000 Data Volume 6, Issue 4 June 2000 Cover art: Old Harbor Light, Savannah - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 JAN 58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 FEB 59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 MAR 59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 APR 60.0 63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.2 MAY 60.3 64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 JUN 60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 JUL 61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 AUG 61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 SEP 61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 OCT 61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 NOV 61.9 67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 DEC 62.1 67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 AVG 60.6 65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 CPI RATE 6.7% 9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1 percent during April The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI) was up 0.1 percent from March to April, meeting the expectations of concensus economists. The unadjusted index rose 3.0% from April of 1999. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.1 percent for April before seasonal adjustment. The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and engergy, increased 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. This modest increase indicates that non-energy inflation remains at a relatively normal level. The recent surge of higher fuel costs relaxed during April and has thus begun working through the Index. Overall fuel costs were up 0.2 percent during April, with increase in natural gas and household electricity at 0.5 percent. Gasoline prices dropped 4.1 percent from March to April, ahead of the expected seasonal increases of the summer months. The big drop in pump prices helped to offset the 0.4 percent increase in new The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference 4.0 Divided by the previous index 108.5 Equals 0.037 Results multiplied by 100 0.037 x 100 Equals percent change 3.7% and used cars and trucks. Fuel oil prices were down 4.2 percent in April, following a 10.7 percent decline the month before. This resulted in a modest overall increase of 0.2 percent for the Fuels and Utilities index, despite the increase in natural gas prices. BLS reported that food and beverages increased 0.1 percent for a second consecutive month, with the index of food at home unchanged. Meat prices increased 0.6 percent and dairy prices were up 0.9 percent. These increases were offset by declines of 0.4 percent in vegetable prices, 0.7 percent in beverage prices and 1.5 percent in prices for sugar and sweets. Food away from home increased 0.1 percent, slightly lower than the trend set in the previous three months. Housing costs for April were up 0.1 percent. Household operations climbed 0.8 percent and homeowner's insurance increased 0.5 percent. Lodging away from home declined 0.1 percent, coming off a huge increase in March. Residential rent was up 0.1 percent for the month. Apparel prices fell by 0.5 percent, erasing the March increase of 0.3 percent. All four subcategories of the apparel index were down, with infants' and and toddler' apparel showing the biggest decline, down 1.2 percent. Medical care costs increased 0.3 percent, with hospital costs up 0.7 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 175 Leading indicators 164.8 Coincident indicators 154.6 144.4 134.2 124 113.8 103.6 93.4 1987-88 = 100 83.2 73 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Leading Index shows modest gain for April Editor's Note: All indicators have been seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increaced 0.2 percent during April to 161.86 from a revised 161.53. On average, the growth of the index over the last six months has been unchanged, while growth over the past twelve months was 4.3 percent. The Coincident Indicators Index increased 0.3 percent to 163.93 from a revised 163.37 for March. Leading Indicators forecast economic activity three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. Strong growth in nonresidential construction during April kept the Index from a second month of decline, while most of the components were down during the month. Contracts for commercial space pushed the total for nonresidential construction up 31.67 percent from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is the second month in which nonresidential construction grew by more than 20 percent. Unemployment continued to decline as initial claims fell a full 1.0 percent to 26,973 in April. Residential construction eased from 7,767 to 7,614 from March to April, a drop of 1.97 percent. Motor vehicle sales eased by 3.8 percent, however, the year over year sales since April of last year were up 33.4 percent and year-to-date sales have increased 4.5 percent. The number of new corporations in Georgia declined 8.0 percent last month. Contributions to the Coincident Index were mixed - the largest component move was in state revenues, up 0.76 percent over March. The employment figures for April showed growth across the board. Manufacturing employment was up 0.2 percent and nonagricultural employment increased 0.4 percent. Retail employment increased 0.7 percent for the month. Unemployment dropped from 3.4 percent, to 3.1 percent. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary April 2000 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Apr 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 1999 Percent Change Mar 2000 to Apr 2000 Percent Change Apr 1999 to Apr 2000 Nonagricultural Employment 4,010,000 3,993,000 3,864,000 + 0.43 + 3.78 Retail Employment 748,200 743,000 698,600 + 0.70 + 7.10 Manufacturing Employment 607,000 605,600 599,100 + 0.23 + 1.32 Manufacturing Workweek 41.4 41.4 42.0 0.00 - 1.43 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $534.39 $532.85 $522.79 + 0.29 + 2.22 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $312.14 $311.43 $314.55 + 0.23 - 0.77 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 17,648 18,461 16,127 - 4.40 + 9.43 Initial Unemployment Claims 26,973 27,246 31,954 - 1.00 - 15.59 Continued Unemployment Claims 132,002 121,771 140,808 + 8.40 - 6.25 Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.4% 3.7% - - Insured Unemployment Rate 0.87% 0.83% 0.86% - - New Motor Vehicle Sales 52,477 54,558 39,332 - 3.81 + 33.42 Residential Construction (building permits) 7,614 7,767 7,553 - 1.97 + 0.81 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $765,000,000 $581,000,000 $501,200,000 + 31.67 + 52.63 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $586,656,000 $446,580,000 $398,727,000 + 31.37 + 47.13 New Business Corporations 4,182 4,547 4,427 - 8.03 - 5.53 Total State Revenues $1,049,120,000 $1,041,230,000 $1,007,783,000 + 0.76 + 4.10 Deflated Total State Revenues $612,804,000 $608,551,000 $606,368,000 + 0.70 + 1.06 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.12 1998-99 1999-2000 4.02 MILLIONS 3.92 3.81 3.71 3.61 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 3,721,000 3,735,000 3,743,000 3,761,000 3,770,000 3,779,000 3,789,000 3,795,000 3,812,000 3,829,000 3,845,000 3,864,000 1999-2000 3,873,000 3,885,000 3,904,000 3,914,000 3,920,000 3,940,000 3,949,000 3,953,000 3,968,000 3,981,000 3,993,000 4,010,000 Retail Employment 774.5 1998-99 1999-2000 749.6 724.7 THOUSANDS 699.8 674.9 650.0 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 676,500 678,800 678,900 679,900 682,700 685,800 686,600 685,900 688,600 693,100 694,400 698,600 1999-2000 702,500 706,200 710,900 715,400 718,500 722,100 726,100 729,500 734,900 739,400 743,000 748,200 Manufacturing Employment 613 1998-99 1999-2000 608 603 THOUSANDS 597 592 587 M J J A S O N D J F M A 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 592,600 593,700 594,900 596,300 597,600 598,500 599,200 599,400 597,100 597,600 598,200 599,100 1999-2000 598,500 599,100 598,400 599,900 599,400 600,500 601,400 603,100 605,100 607,100 605,600 607,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 42.5 1998-99 1999-2000 42.2 HOURS 41.8 41.5 41.1 40.8 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 42.1 42.0 42.1 41.7 41.8 41.8 41.6 41.6 41.7 41.4 41.8 42.0 1999-2000 42.1 41.9 41.8 41.2 41.8 41.7 42.0 42.1 41.9 41.9 41.4 41.4 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $554 1998-99 1999-2000 $541 DOLLARS $527 $514 $500 $487 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 $506.77 504.97 506.76 502.89 501.19 505.94 502.70 505.29 508.45 506.96 514.04 522.79 1999-2000 $521.63 522.59 519.46 523.96 524.27 527.84 538.26 537.82 538.37 538.42 532.85 534.39 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $326 1998-99 1999-2000 $321 DOLLARS $316 $311 $306 $301 M J J A S O N D J F M A Georgia Department of Labor Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 $311.28 309.80 310.51 307.77 306.35 308.50 306.52 308.29 309.46 308.15 311.54 314.55 1999-2000 $313.86 314.43 311.61 313.56 312.25 313.82 319.82 319.56 319.13 317.28 311.43 312.14 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 21.7 1998-99 1999-2000 19.9 THOUSANDS 18.1 16.3 14.5 12.7 M J J A S O N D J F M A * Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 41.0 1998-99 1999-2000 37.3 THOUSANDS 33.6 29.9 26.2 22.5 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 16,424 16,174 16,505 16,624 16,709 17,319 16,184 16,658 15,384 16,939 17,930 16,127 1999-2000 15,364 14,549 15,590 16,783 16,666 16,641 18,322 19,792 17,826 18,448 18,461 17,648 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 26,641 31,311 29,383 28,631 30,677 30,426 33,463 37,008 33,719 31,366 31,843 31,954 1999-2000 28,147 29,992 29,853 32,336 31,491 28,214 31,943 30,163 26,565 27,702 27,246 26,973 Continued Unemployment Claims 169.5 1998-99 1999-2000 157.4 THOUSANDS 145.3 133.2 121.1 109.0 M J J A S O N D J F M A 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 May 139,236 139,093 Jun 140,319 149,153 Jul 147,945 134,664 Aug 148,494 152,107 Sep 135,452 146,074 Oct 131,796 142,650 Nov 146,754 156,177 Dec 131,000 132,644 Jan 128,001 141,756 Feb 137,003 133,381 Mar 142,178 121,771 Apr 140,808 132,002 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate 4.8 1998-99 1999-2000 4.4 PERCENTAGES 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.6 J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 3.7% 1999-2000 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% Insured Unemployment Rate 0.99 1998-99 1999-2000 0.94 PERCENTAGES 0.89 0.85 0.80 0.75 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 0.91% 0.89% 0.89% 0.87% 0.88% 0.86% 0.86% 0.87% 0.93% 0.88% 0.88% 0.86% 1999-2000 0.89% 0.91% 0.90% 0.93% 0.90% 0.90% 0.89% 0.87% 0.82% 0.81% 0.83% 0.87% New Motor Vehicle Sales 63 1998-99 1999-2000 57 THOUSANDS 50 44 37 31 M J J A S O N D J F M A Georgia Department of Labor Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 46,109 37,234 44,270 41,175 42,951 45,014 44,224 46,859 51,703 48,750 46,653 39,332 1999-2000 41,498 48,605 40,573 46,109 43,425 45,191 48,719 50,242 51,639 56,007 54,558 52,477 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 8,900 1998-99 1999-2000 8,373 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 7,847 7,320 6,794 6,267 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 7,131 6,939 7,219 7,464 7,545 8,136 8,183 8,209 7,090 7,469 7,265 7,553 1999-2000 7,272 7,243 6,990 7,230 7,297 7,422 7,653 7,668 8,236 8,037 7,767 7,614 Nonresidential Construction $910 1998-99 1999-2000 $775 $640 MILLIONS $505 $370 $235 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 486,200,000 436,900,000 422,500,000 529,200,000 534,200,000 422,900,000 511,500,000 478,400,000 544,200,000 509,200,000 513,400,000 501,200,000 1999-2000 410,800,000 595,100,000 520,300,000 502,400,000 484,900,000 374,500,000 402,300,000 483,500,000 472,400,000 466,100,000 581,000,000 765,000,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $700 1998-99 1999-2000 $596 $492 MILLIONS $388 $284 $180 M J J A S O N D J F M A 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 401,155,000 358,703,000 348,885,000 432,000,000 435,016,000 342,985,000 413,167,000 384,875,000 436,758,000 408,668,000 409,737,000 398,727,000 1999-2000 325,515,000 468,952,000 408,399,000 394,039,000 379,124,000 291,894,000 312,831,000 374,806,000 364,225,000 358,263,000 446,580,000 586,656,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,250 1998-99 1999-2000 4,850 CHARTERS 4,450 4,050 3,650 3,250 M J J A S O N D J F M A * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,111 $1,058 MILLIONS $1,005 $952 $899 M J J A S O N D J F M A Monthly Data Sonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 3,667 3,937 3,717 3,720 3,693 3,740 3,769 3,855 3,651 3,991 4,153 4,427 1999-2000 4,021 4,342 4,224 4,360 4,536 4,267 4,679 4,761 4,606 4,497 4,547 4,182 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1998-99 1999-2000 $989,997,000 $1,041,678,000 1,001,175,000 1,009,495,000 1,028,255,000 1,044,552,000 1,017,378,000 1,058,287,000 976,884,000 1,069,970,000 955,223,000 1,102,612,000 994,788,000 1,091,789,000 1,006,672,000 1,046,986,000 1,047,382,000 1,061,024,000 996,915,000 1,046,004,000 1,007,222,000 1,041,230,000 1,007,783,000 1,049,120,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $690 $662 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Averages Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 MILLIONS $634 $606 $578 $550 M J J A S O N D J F M A May $608,106,000 $626,762,000 Jun 614,218,000 607,398,000 Jul 630,058,000 626,606,000 Aug 622,630,000 633,326,000 Sep 597,117,000 637,266,000 Oct 582,453,000 655,536,000 Nov 606,578,000 648,716,000 Dec 614,199,000 622,095,000 Jan 637,481,000 628,941,000 Feb 606,027,000 616,384,000 Mar 610,438,000 608,551,000 Apr 606,368,000 612,804,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / June 2000 11 To receive a free subscription, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to stephen.matta@dol.state.ga.us Stephen Matta Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 International Boulevard N.E. 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