GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends May 2000 Volume 6, Issue 3 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner This issue is dedicated to Jim Wynn who retired this month, in appreciation for his years of service to the Georgia Department of Labor, during which he created this publication. Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report March 2000 Data Volume 6, Issue 3 Cover art: Georgia State Capitol Building - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index Chart is not seasonally adjusted YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 JAN 58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 FEB 59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 MAR 59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 APR 60.0 63.9 70.6 81.0 89.1 94.9 98.6 103.1 106.9 108.6 112.7 117.1 123.1 128.9 135.2 139.5 144.0 147.4 151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 MAY 60.3 64.5 71.5 81.8 89.8 95.8 99.2 103.4 107.3 108.9 113.1 117.5 123.8 129.2 135.6 139.7 144.2 147.5 152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 JUN 60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 JUL 61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 AUG 61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 SEP 61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 OCT 61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 NOV 61.9 67.4 75.9 85.5 93.7 98.0 101.2 105.3 109.0 110.4 115.4 120.3 125.9 133.8 137.8 142.0 145.8 149.7 153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 DEC 62.1 67.7 76.7 86.3 94.0 97.6 101.3 105.3 109.3 110.5 115.4 120.5 126.1 133.8 137.9 141.9 145.8 149.7 153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 AVG 60.6 65.2 72.6 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 CPI RATE 6.7% 9.0% 13.3% 12.5% 8.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS U.S. consumer prices outpace concensus expectations The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI) rose 0.7 percent in March, after seasonal adjustment. This increase outpaced the 0.5 percent expected by concensus economists. The unadjusted index was up 3.7 percent for the 12-month period. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.8 percent for March before seasonal adjustment. The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and engergy, increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. This growth signals a steady escalation of non-energy influences in consumer costs, such as housing and labor. The March index shows the largest monthly increase in core inflation since 1991. Higher fuel costs continued to push up energy and transportation prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that energy prices grew 4.9 percent in March. The energy component has grown by 1.0 percent or higher for five of the last seven months. Transportation costs increased 2.5 The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference 4.0 Divided by the previous index 108.5 Equals 0.037 Results multiplied by 100 0.037 x 100 Equals percent change 3.7% percent in March, following a growth of 1.3 percent in February. Pump prices for gasoline were up 11.1 percent. The average temperature of the first three months of 2000 was the warmest in over 100 years. The comfortable weather reduced the demand for heating, thus the costs of household energy was lower. Fuel oil prices were down 10.7 percent and natural gas and electricity prices grew by only 0.5 percent, compared to 1.1 percent in February. Food and beverages increased a modest 0.1 percent for the month, assisted by a sharp 1.1 percent decline in dairy products and a 1.7 percent drop in fruits and vegetables. Meat and poultry prices were up 0.9 percent for the second month in a row. The cost for dining out continued a three-month trend of 0.2 percent growth. Housing costs for March were up 0.4 percent. The largest increase in this category was in lodging away from home, at 3.2 percent for the month. Residential rent maintained a consistent 0.3 percent growth trend. BLS reported that apparel prices grew 0.3 percent, slightly higher than February's 0.2 percent. Footware costs increased a steep 1.7 percent for the month. Medical care costs rose 0.5 percent in March. Professional services were up 0.4 percent, while hospital and related services increased 0.5 percent. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 170 Leading indicators 160 Coincident indicators 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 1987-88 = 100 80 70 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Economic indicators take a breather Editor's Note: All indicators have been seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.4 percent during March to 161.49. On average, the growth of the index over the last six months has been 2.0 percent. The Coincident Indicators Index increased 0.8 percent to 163.60. Leading Indicators forecast economic activity three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. Revisions in employment data, coupled with recent consumer inflation, account for some of the softening of the leading index. Among the index's components, the value of nonresidential construction was up sharply at $546.7 million, an increase of 21 percent in March, after seasonal adjustment. Permits for residential construction were down for a second month, by 3.4 pertcent. Such declines tend to affect retail and durable goods sales activities. Manufacturing employment and earnings were down for the month. Weekly earnings for the period were down 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted. The average number of weekly hours worked dropped 1.0 percent. The employment figures for March showed a 0.2 percent decline in manufacturing, and a 0.6 increase in retail employment. Total nonagriculural employment was up 0.3 percent in March. Initial unemployment claims for March were off by 1.6 percent and continued claims were down 8.7 percent. The total number of nonagricultural job openings unfilled was up 1.7 percent to 18,847. New motor vehicle sales fell 2.6 percent in March, ending a fivemonth growth streak. May sales figures might improve with graduation and summer approaching. State revenue collections fell $6,138,000 or 0.6 percent for March, to $1,038,780,000. The decline is the second this year, following February's decline of 1.36 percent. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary March 2000 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Mar 2000 Feb 2000 Mar 1999 Percent Change Feb 2000 to Mar 2000 Percent Change Mar 1999 to Mar 2000 Nonagricultural Employment 3,994,000 3,982,000 3,843,000 + 0.30 + 3.93 Retail Employment 743,800 739,500 694,200 + 0.58 + 7.14 Manufacturing Employment 605,900 607,100 598,200 - 0.20 + 1.29 Manufacturing Workweek 41.5 41.9 41.8 - 0.95 - 0.72 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $534.01 $539.03 $514.36 - 0.93 + 3.82 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $312.10 $317.64 $311.73 - 1.74 + 0.12 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 18,847 18,527 18,281 + 1.73 + 3.10 Initial Unemployment Claims 27,279 27,726 31,878 - 1.61 - 14.43 Continued Unemployment Claims 121,790 133,450 142,220 - 8.74 - 14.37 Unemployment Rate 3.4% 3.5% 4.2% - - Insured Unemployment Rate 0.82% 0.81% 0.87% - - New Motor Vehicle Sales 54,870 56,339 46,870 - 2.61 + 17.07 Residential Construction (building permits) 7,780 8,057 7,277 - 3.44 + 6.91 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $546,700,000 $449,900,000 $507,000,000 + 21.52 + 7.83 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $422,490,000 $347,680,000 $403,340,000 + 21.52 + 4.75 New Business Corporations 4,608 4,547 4,197 + 1.34 + 9.79 Total State Revenues $1,038,780,000 $1,044,918,000 $1,006,053,000 - 0.59 + 3.25 Deflated Total State Revenues $607,119,000 $615,744,000 $609,729,000 - 1.40 - 0.43 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.10 1998-99 1999-2000 4.00 MILLIONS 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.60 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 3,708,000 3,720,000 3,735,000 3,742,000 3,761,000 3,770,000 3,780,000 3,790,000 3,794,000 3,811,000 3,829,000 3,843,000 1999-2000 3,865,000 3,873,000 3,884,000 3,904,000 3,914,000 3,920,000 3,941,000 3,950,000 3,962,000 3,976,000 3,982,000 3,994,000 Retail Employment 768 1998-99 1999-2000 744.4 720.8 THOUSANDS 697.2 673.6 650 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 674,800 676,500 678,800 678,800 679,900 682,800 685,800 686,600 685,900 688,500 693,200 694,200 1999-2000 698,600 702,400 706,200 710,900 715,400 718,600 722,200 726,100 729,500 739,100 739,500 743,800 Manufacturing Employment 613 1998-99 1999-2000 607 602 THOUSANDS 596 591 585 A M J J A S O N D J F M 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 591,100 592,700 593,700 594,900 596,300 597,500 598,400 599,200 599,400 597,100 597,600 598,200 1999-2000 599,100 598,500 599,100 598,500 599,900 599,300 600,500 601,300 603,000 605,100 607,100 605,900 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 42.5 1998-99 1999-2000 42.2 HOURS 41.8 41.5 41.1 40.8 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 42.1 42.1 42.0 42.1 41.7 41.8 41.8 41.6 41.6 41.7 41.4 41.8 1999-2000 41.9 42.1 41.9 41.8 41.2 41.8 41.7 42.0 42.1 41.9 41.9 41.5 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $554 1998-99 1999-2000 $541 DOLLARS $527 $514 $500 $487 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 504.32 506.91 505.24 506.90 503.06 501.37 506.20 503.18 505.73 508.95 507.48 514.36 1999-2000 519.02 521.79 522.88 519.65 524.15 524.52 528.15 538.80 538.33 538.94 539.03 534.01 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $326 1998-99 1999-2000 $321 DOLLARS $316 $311 $306 $301 A M J J A S O N D J F M Georgia Department of Labor Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 310.35 311.37 309.96 310.60 307.87 306.46 308.66 306.82 308.56 309.77 308.50 311.73 1999-2000 312.29 313.95 314.61 311.73 313.67 312.40 314.00 320.14 319.86 319.48 317.64 312.10 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 21.7 1998-99 1999-2000 19.9 THOUSANDS 18.1 16.3 14.5 12.7 A M J J A S O N D J F M * Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor Initial Unemployment Claims 41.0 1998-99 1999-2000 37.3 THOUSANDS 33.6 29.9 26.2 22.5 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 16,029 16,430 16,207 16,505 16,608 16,689 17,287 16,153 16,609 15,449 17,010 18,281 1999-2000 18,678 15,364 14,576 15,584 16,769 16,641 16,599 18,273 19,724 17,899 18,527 18,847 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 27,854 26,664 31,335 29,383 28,615 30,640 30,383 33,411 36,919 33,722 31,391 31,878 1999-2000 32,076 28,177 30,019 29,861 32,315 31,447 28,165 31,884 30,081 26,566 27,726 27,279 Continued Unemployment Claims 169.5 1998-99 1999-2000 157.4 THOUSANDS 145.3 133.2 121.1 109.0 A M J J A S O N D J F M 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 142,847 139,205 140,275 147,891 148,427 135,386 131,771 146,662 131,055 128,079 137,087 142,220 1999-2000 140,947 139,039 149,083 134,595 152,019 145,987 142,591 156,039 132,682 141,830 133,450 121,790 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate 4.7 1998-99 1999-2000 4.4 PERCENTAGES 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 1999-2000 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% Insured Unemployment Rate 1.05 1998-99 1999-2000 0.99 PERCENTAGES 0.93 0.87 0.81 0.75 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 0.98% 0.91% 0.89% 0.89% 0.87% 0.88% 0.86% 0.86% 0.87% 0.93% 0.87% 0.87% 1999-2000 0.87% 0.89% 0.91% 0.90% 0.93% 0.90% 0.90% 0.89% 0.87% 0.82% 0.81% 0.82% New Motor Vehicle Sales 63 1998-99 1999-2000 57 THOUSANDS 50 44 37 31 A M J J A S O N D J F M Georgia Department of Labor Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 50,502 46,151 37,253 44,307 41,187 43,002 45,103 44,461 47,011 52,160 48,985 46,870 1999-2000 37,983 41,538 48,650 40,629 46,147 43,507 45,318 48,853 50,457 52,144 56,339 54,870 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 8,900 1998-99 1999-2000 8,320 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 7,740 7,160 6,580 6,000 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 6,659 7,134 6,942 7,218 7,464 7,547 8,144 8,201 8,225 7,106 7,486 7,277 1999-2000 7,458 7,245 7,221 6,992 7,233 7,303 7,658 7,689 8,259 8,259 8,057 7,780 Nonresidential Construction $688 1998-99 1999-2000 $606 $525 MILLIONS $443 $362 $280 A M J J A S O N D J F M Deflated Nonresidential Construction $620 1998-99 1999-2000 $538 $456 MILLIONS $374 $292 $210 A M J J A S O N D J F M 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 555,100,000 490,100,000 436,300,000 421,700,000 532,800,000 532,400,000 419,800,000 505,000,000 474,000,000 530,600,000 493,200,000 507,000,000 1999-2000 496,000,000 414,100,000 593,800,000 518,900,000 505,500,000 482,000,000 371,100,000 396,500,000 457,200,000 462,400,000 449,900,000 546,700,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 461,050,000 406,380,000 359,390,000 345,940,000 435,290,000 434,970,000 342,140,000 409,900,000 382,260,000 426,180,000 395,190,000 403,340,000 1999-2000 394,900,000 328,910,000 467,930,000 406,980,000 396,470,000 376,560,000 289,020,000 308,080,000 354,970,000 357,890,000 347,680,000 422,490,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,250 1998-99 1999-2000 4,850 CHARTERS 4,450 4,050 3,650 3,250 A M J J A S O N D J F M * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,111 $1,058 MILLIONS $1,005 $952 $899 A M J J A S O N D J F M Monthly Data Sonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 3,752 3,679 3,928 3,712 3,704 3,690 3,743 3,779 3,858 3,687 4,026 4,197 1999-2000 4,269 4,042 4,325 4,213 4,343 4,532 4,272 4,693 4,793 4,659 4,547 4,608 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 1998-99 1999-2000 960,019,000 988,974,000 1,000,193,000 1,028,071,000 1,016,933,000 976,628,000 957,239,000 996,666,000 1,007,820,000 1,047,731,000 996,435,000 1,006,053,000 1,005,350,000 1,040,131,000 1,008,917,000 1,044,664,000 1,060,370,000 1,073,066,000 1,106,885,000 1,095,354,000 1,048,962,000 1,061,435,000 1,044,918,000 1,038,780,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $690 $662 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Averages Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 MILLIONS Apr 590,781,000 604,904,000 $634 May 607,478,000 625,831,000 Jun 613,615,000 607,050,000 Jul 629,945,000 626,673,000 Aug 622,358,000 634,572,000 $606 Sep 596,961,000 639,110,000 Oct 583,682,000 658,077,000 Nov 607,723,000 650,834,000 $578 Dec 614,899,000 623,269,000 Jan 637,694,000 629,185,000 Feb 605,736,000 615,744,000 $550 Mar 609,729,000 607,119,000 A M J J A S O N D J F M Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / May 2000 11 To receive a free subscription, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to stephen.matta@dol.state.ga.us Stephen Matta Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 International Boulevard N.E. 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