GEORGIA Economic Indicators A Monthly Report of Georgia State Labor Market and Economic Trends January 2001 Volume 6, Issue 11 Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond Commissioner Georgia Economic Indicators Monthly Report November 2000 Data Volume 6, Issue 11 January 2001 Cover art: The Big Oak, Thomasville - Huey J. Theus, Mableton, Georgia Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is published by Workforce Information and Analysis, a division of the Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 303031751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Visit the Georgia Department of Labor web site at www.dol.state.ga.us Georgia Department of Labor Michael L. Thurmond, Commissioner Equal Opportunity Employer/Programs - Auxiliary Aids and Services Available Upon Request to Individuals With Disabilities Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 1 Introduction G eorgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report, is designed to provide in a single publication data on a number of indicators used to measure movement of the state's economy. The indicators have been collected and disseminated for many years by state and federal governments and private agencies, but not under a single cover. Contributing agencies include Georgia's Department of Labor, Department of Revenue and Office of Secretary of State, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the F.W. Dodge Company. All data except those contained in the U.S. Consumer Price Index chart on Page 3 are seasonally adjusted using the X11 ARIMA method. They are presented in graphic and tabular form along with an analysis. Each series shows movement over a 24-month period. Where appropriate, companion graphs and tables show data which have been deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index or the U.S. Construction Price Index. The purpose is to adjust for inflation and show growth in constant dollars. Historical tables and graphs are included in a supplementary Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series, published annually in February. The purpose of the publications is to serve the business and professional communities, economic developers, economists, educators and others who have need for information on state economic trends. Workforce Information and Analysis welcomes comments, suggestions or questions concerning Georgia Economic Indicators, Monthly Report and Georgia Economic Indicators, Historical Series. Please address correspondence to Stephen Matta, Workforce Information and Analysis, Georgia Department of Labor, 148 International Boulevard, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1751. The telephone number is (404) 656-3177. Data Sources Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators*, Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Unemployment Claims, Insured Unemployment Rate, Nonagricultural Employment, Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled, Weekly Manufacturing Earnings, Retail Employment, Manufacturing Employment and Manufacturing Workweek -- Georgia Department of Labor Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate and United States Labor Force Estimates -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics New Motor Vehicles, State Sales and Use Tax Collections and Total Revenue Collections -- Georgia Department of Revenue New Business Corporations -- Georgia Secretary of State Residential Construction and Construction Price Index -- U.S. Department of Commerce Nonresidential Construction -- F.W. Dodge, McGraw-Hill Construction Information Group * Model for Georgia Indexes of Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators developed by Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center 2 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 Georgia Department of Labor Consumer Price Index YEAR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 JAN 58.5 62.5 68.3 77.8 87.0 94.3 97.8 101.9 105.5 109.6 111.2 115.7 121.1 127.4 134.6 138.1 142.6 146.2 150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.7 FEB 59.1 62.9 69.1 78.9 87.9 94.6 97.9 102.4 106.0 109.3 111.6 116.0 121.6 128.0 134.8 138.6 143.1 146.7 150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.7 MAR 59.5 63.4 69.8 80.1 88.5 94.5 97.9 102.6 106.4 108.8 112.1 116.5 122.3 128.7 135.0 139.3 143.6 147.2 151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.1 APR MAY 60.0 60.3 63.9 64.5 70.6 71.5 81.0 81.8 89.1 89.8 94.9 95.8 98.6 99.2 103.1 103.4 106.9 107.3 108.6 108.9 112.7 113.1 117.1 117.5 123.1 123.8 128.9 129.2 135.2 135.6 139.5 139.7 144.0 144.2 147.4 147.5 151.9 152.2 156.3 156.6 160.2 160.1 162.5 162.8 166.2 166.2 171.2 171.3 JUN 60.7 65.2 72.3 82.7 90.6 97.0 99.5 103.7 107.6 109.5 113.5 118.0 124.1 129.9 136.0 140.2 144.4 148.0 152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.3 JUL 61.0 65.7 73.1 82.7 91.6 97.5 99.9 104.1 107.0 109.5 113.8 118.5 124.4 130.4 136.2 140.5 144.4 148.4 152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.6 AUG 61.2 66.0 73.8 88.3 92.3 97.7 100.2 104.5 108.0 109.7 114.4 119.0 124.6 131.6 136.6 140.9 144.8 149.0 152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 SEP 61.4 66.5 74.6 84.0 93.2 97.9 100.7 105.0 108.3 110.2 115.0 119.8 125.0 132.7 137.2 141.3 145.1 149.4 153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 OCT 61.6 67.1 75.2 84.8 93.4 98.2 101.0 105.3 108.7 110.3 115.3 120.2 125.0 133.5 137.4 141.9 145.7 149.5 153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 Chart is not seasonally adjusted NOV 61.9 67.4 DEC 62.1 67.7 AVG 60.6 65.2 CPI RATE 6.7% 9.0% 75.9 76.7 72.6 13.3% 85.5 86.3 82.4 12.5% 93.7 94.0 90.9 8.9% 98.0 97.6 96.5 3.8% 101.2 101.3 99.6 3.8% 105.3 105.3 103.9 3.9% 109.0 109.3 107.6 3.8% 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.1% 115.4 115.4 113.6 4.4% 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.4% 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.6% 133.8 133.8 130.7 6.1% 137.8 137.9 136.2 3.1% 142.0 141.9 140.3 2.9% 145.8 145.8 149.7 149.7 144.5 148.2 2.7% 2.7% 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.5% 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.3% 161.5 161.3 164.0 163.9 160.5 163.0 1.7% 1.6% 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.7% 174.1 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Consumer Prices Increase 0.1 Percent in November The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 174.1 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. For the 12-month period ending in November, the CPI-U increased 3.4 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.2 percent in November, prior to seasonal adjustment. The monthly index of 170.9 was 3.5 percent higher than the index in November 1999. The core inflation rate, as measured by the index of all items less food and energy, increased 0.3 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent increase in October. The November up turn was fueled by an increase in tobacco prices. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in November, the same as in October. The food index, which rose 0.1 percent in October, was unchanged in November. The Formula Following is the formula for figuring Consumer Price Index percentage changes from one point in time to another. Index point change CPI Less previous index Equals index point change 112.5 108.5 4.0 Percent change Index point difference Divided by the previous index Equals Results multiplied by 100 Equals percent change 4.0 108.5 0.037 0.037 x 100 3.7% The energy index increased 0.1 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent rise in October. In November, the index for petroleumbased energy increased 0.2 percent, while the index for energy services declined 0.1 percent. The food and beverages index increased 0.1 percent in November, the same as in each of the preceding two months. The index for food at home declined 0.1 percent in November. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs declined 1.0 percent in November. The housing index increased 0.2 percent in November, following a 0.5 percent rise in October. The index for fuels and utilities, which advanced 1.3 percent in October, rose 0.1 percent in November. In November, the indexes for fuel oil and for electricity increased 0.1 and 0.2 percent, respectively, while the index for natural gas declined 0.7 percent. During the past 12 months, prices for fuel oil have increased 45.2 percent and charges for natural gas 25.6 percent. Charges for electricity have risen 2.3 percent. Transportation costs increased 0.3 percent in November, while apparel declined 0.4 percent. Medical costs rose 0.2 percent for the month. During the first 11 months of 2000, the CPI-U rose at a rate of 3.5 percent after seasonal adjustment. Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 3 Georgia Index of Economic Indicators 197.0 Leading indicators Coincident indicators 167.8 138.6 109.4 80.2 1987-88 = 100 51.0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Leading Index increased 0.2 percent during November Note: All indicators are seasonally adjusted. *** The Georgia Department of Labor's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2 percent in November to 164.8 from a revised 164.5, after seasonal adjustment. Since December, the Index has grown 1.6 percent and the growth from November of 1999 was 0.5 percent. State revenues declined by a seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent in November after inflation adjustment. Total nonagricultural payroll employment was unchanged, for a third month of minimal growth. A 0.7 decline in manufacturing employment offset the 0.4 percent increase in retail employment for the month. The number of unfilled job openings Recent 12 Months 68.4 Leading Coincident 66.0 63.5 61.0 58.6 1993 = 100 56.1 The Leading Index reflects activity that will impact the economy for a duration of three to six months into the future. Coincident indicators measure current conditions. 4 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 declined 3.75 percent during November. The Index of Coincident Indicators was down by 0.1 percent in November. The index, at 164.9 from a revised 165.1, has grown 3.6 percent year to date and 3.5 percent since October of 1999. Heaviest declines in the state economy can be seen in construction. Employment in that sector was off by 1.0 percent during November. While residential construction is showing modest growth, the value of nonresidential construction projects was down 28.8 percent, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Georgia Department of Labor Data Summary November 2000 Georgia Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Nov 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 1999 Percent Change Oct 2000 to Nov 2000 Percent Change Nov 1999 to Nov 2000 Nonagricultural Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment 4,009,000 756,400 598,700 4,010,000 753,300 603,100 3,951,000 726,300 601,900 Manufacturing Workweek 40.9 41.4 42.1 Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $539.66 $542.92 $538.35 Deflated Manufacturing Earnings $309.97 $312.02 $319.88 Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled 13,029 13,536 18,412 Initial Unemployment Claims Continued Unemployment Claims 39,869 158,489 38,524 153,481 31,206 151,697 Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% Insured Unemployment Rate 0.95% 0.95% 0.88% New Motor Vehicle Sales Residential Construction (building permits) 47,461 7,656 46,558 7,309 58,609 7,708 Nonresidential Construction (dollar value) $380,900,000 $534,900,000 $409,000,000 Deflated Nonresidential Construction $328,100,000 $461,900,000 $365,500,000 New Business Corporations 4,906 4,827 4,617 Total State Revenues $1,138,778,000 $1,179,420,000 $1,099,511,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $654,094,199,000 $677,827,586,000 $653,304,219,000 -0.02 0.41 -0.73 -1.21 -0.60 -0.66 -3.75 3.49 3.26 1.94 4.75 -28.79 -28.97 1.64 -3.45 -3.50 1.47 4.14 -0.53 -2.85 0.24 -3.10 -29.24 27.76 4.48 -19.02 -0.67 -6.87 -10.23 6.26 3.57 0.12 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 5 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Employment 4.12 1998-99 1999-2000 4.03 MILLIONS 3.94 3.86 3.77 3.69 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 3,795,000 3,811,000 3,828,000 3,843,000 3,863,000 3,873,000 3,886,000 3,905,000 3,914,000 3,921,000 3,940,000 3,951,000 1999-2000 3,963,000 3,976,000 3,983,000 3,990,000 3,994,000 3,996,000 4,001,000 4,009,000 4,008,000 4,008,000 4,010,000 4,009,000 Retail Employment 781.9 1998-99 1999-2000 757.5 733.1 THOUSANDS 708.7 684.3 660.0 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 686,300 688,700 692,800 693,600 698,400 702,700 707,000 713,300 716,300 720,100 725,700 726,300 1999-2000 729,900 735,300 739,000 742,100 743,300 744,200 743,700 747,500 747,000 750,600 753,300 756,400 Manufacturing Employment 612 1998-99 1999-2000 608 604 THOUSANDS 600 596 592 D J F M A M J J A S O N 6 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 599,300 597,000 597,400 597,900 598,700 598,400 599,300 598,400 600,300 599,700 600,400 601,900 1999-2000 603,200 605,000 606,900 605,200 606,400 605,700 604,100 604,900 602,500 602,700 603,100 598,700 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Manufacturing Workweek 42.5 1998-99 1999-2000 42.1 41.7 HOURS 41.3 40.9 40.4 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 Dec 41.6 Jan 41.7 Feb 41.4 Mar 41.7 Apr 41.8 May 41.8 Jun 42.0 Jul 41.8 Aug 41.7 Sep 41.4 Oct 41.6 Nov 42.1 1999-2000 42.0 41.9 41.9 41.4 41.6 41.4 41.1 41.3 41.4 41.1 41.4 40.9 Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings $560 1998-99 1999-2000 $545 DOLLARS $530 $515 $501 $486 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 $504.89 507.93 506.38 513.36 518.48 525.56 525.42 520.33 524.96 525.62 526.82 538.35 1999-2000 $ 537.22 537.62 537.59 531.94 538.92 532.25 528.84 535.65 540.53 537.35 542.92 539.66 Deflated Average Weekly Manufacturing Earnings DOLLARS $327 $322 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month 1998-99 1999-2000 Dec $317 Jan Feb Mar Apr $311 May Jun Jul $306 Aug Sep Oct $301 Nov D J F M A M J J A S O N $ 308.05 309.15 307.83 311.13 311.96 316.22 316.14 312.14 314.16 313.06 313.21 319.88 $ 319.20 318.68 316.79 310.89 314.79 310.71 306.93 310.34 312.81 309.36 312.02 309.97 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 7 Georgia Economic Indicators Nonagricultural Job Openings Unfilled* 22.6 1998-99 1999-2000 20.1 THOUSANDS 17.6 15.1 12.6 10.2 D J F M A M J J A S O N * Jobs listed with Georgia Department of Labor Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Ap r M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 16,622 15,361 16,894 17,914 17,978 15,353 15,014 15,771 16,735 16,986 16,769 18,412 1999-2000 19,715 17,769 18,363 18,416 17,950 17,503 16,332 15,974 15,355 13,968 13,536 13,029 Initial Unemployment Claims 45.6 1998-99 1999-2000 40.7 THOUSANDS 35.9 31.0 26.2 21.3 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 36,613 33,645 31,458 32,184 32,518 28,275 30,105 30,440 32,054 31,281 27,903 31,206 1999-2000 29,781 26,474 27,770 27,562 27,500 32,622 30,422 30,849 35,062 36,058 38,524 39,869 Continued Unemployment Claims 177.0 1998-99 1999-2000 163.0 THOUSANDS 149.0 135.0 120.9 106.9 D J F M A M J J A S O N 8 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 130,738 128,130 137,710 143,521 143,124 140,371 152,701 132,096 151,927 143,437 141,632 151,697 1999-2000 132,732 142,189 134,371 123,261 134,610 139,277 131,817 155,825 141,718 158,601 153,481 158,489 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate 4.8 1998-99 1999-2000 4.3 PERCENTAGES 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 1999-2000 3.9 % 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5% 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 Insured Unemployment Rate 1.01 1998-99 1999-2000 0.96 PERCENTAGES 0.91 0.86 0.81 0.76 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 0.87 % 0.93 0.88 0.89 0.87 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.88 1999-2000 0.87 % 0.82 0.82 0.84 0.88 0.88 0.92 0.90 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.95 New Motor Vehicle Sales THOUSANDS 66 1998-99 1999-2000 59 51 43 36 28 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 46,544 50,775 48,397 45,921 36,608 40,696 53,122 41,584 44,575 43,286 44,742 48,609 1999-2000 49,772 50,621 56,157 53,769 48,034 50,406 45,692 42,721 51,725 46,998 46,558 47,461 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 9 Georgia Economic Indicators Residential Construction 8,803 1998-99 1999-2000 8,337 HOUSEHOLD UNITS 7,871 7,405 6,939 6,473 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 8,210 7,084 7,450 7,238 7,506 7,257 7,256 7,003 7,389 7,400 7,498 7,708 1999-2000 7,659 8,220 8,002 7,739 7,563 7,897 7,848 7,858 7,168 7,521 7,309 7,656 Nonresidential Construction $682 1998-99 1999-2000 $604 $526 MILLIONS $448 $370 $292 D J F M A M J J A S O N Deflated Nonresidential Construction $598 1998-99 1999-2000 $527 $457 MILLIONS $386 $316 $245 D J F M A M J J A S O N 10 Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 $ 474,900,000 530,300,000 496,700,000 507,400,000 528,700,000 448,700,000 484,300,000 548,300,000 522,700,000 494,500,000 386,300,000 409,000,000 1999-2000 $ 475,200,000 478,300,000 452,500,000 557,500,000 494,600,000 506,900,000 583,900,000 409,300,000 392,200,000 532,700,000 534,900,000 380,900,000 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1998-99 $ 440,100,000 488,800,000 457,400,000 465,900,000 483,700,000 408,700,000 438,700,000 495,800,000 471,800,000 445,900,000 346,800,000 365,500,000 1999-2000 $ 423,200,000 424,000,000 400,100,000 492,100,000 434,200,000 443,900,000 510,000,000 356,200,000 341,000,000 461,600,000 461,900,000 328,100,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators New Business Corporations* 5,663 1998-99 1999-2000 5,153 CHARTERS 4,642 4,132 3,621 3,111 D J F M A M J J A S O N * Includes limited liability companies Total State Revenues $1,260 1998-99 1999-2000 $1,193 $1,126 MILLIONS $1,060 $993 $926 D J F M A M J J A S O N Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month D ec J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct Nov 1998-99 3,848 3,667 4,006 4,171 4,526 3,824 4,304 4,372 4,227 4,686 4,236 4,617 1999-2000 4,807 4,631 4,516 4,574 4,272 5,052 4,624 4,310 4,948 4,377 4,827 4,906 Monthly Data Seasonally Adjusted Month D ec J an F eb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct Nov 1998-99 $1,002,543,000 1,047,525,000 1,000,693,000 1,013,750,000 1,016,715,000 1,055,453,000 1,028,620,000 1,030,058,000 1,049,339,000 1,056,970,000 1,069,517,000 1,099,511,000 1999-2000 $1,038,990,000 1,061,517,000 1,052,836,000 1,054,028,000 1,068,331,000 1,089,652,000 1,096,281,000 1,134,310,000 1,155,444,000 1,124,485,000 1,179,420,000 1,138,778,000 Deflated Total State Revenues $713 1998-99 1999-2000 Monthly Averages Seasonally Adjusted MILLIONS $685 $657 $629 $601 $573 D J F M A M J J A S O N Month 1998-99 1999-2000 Dec $ 611,679,683,000 $617,344,029,000 Jan 637,568,472,000 629,233,551,000 Feb 608,324,012,000 620,410,136,000 M ar 614,393,939,000 616,030,392,000 Apr 611,741,877,000 624,025,117,000 May 635,049,940,000 636,107,414,000 Jun 618,904,934,000 636,262,914,000 Jul 617,911,218,000 657,190,035,000 Aug 627,970,676,000 668,659,722,000 Sep 629,523,526,000 647,371,906,000 Oct 635,860,285,000 677,827,586,000 Nov 653,304,219,000 654,094,199,000 Georgia Department of Labor Georgia Economic Indicators / January 2001 11 To receive a free subscription to this publication, please complete and mail this form Mail to: If you prefer, you may e-mail your request to stephen.matta@dol.state.ga.us Stephen Matta Workforce Information and Analysis Georgia Department of Labor 148 International Boulevard N.E. 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