Employment, Earnings, and Recidivism among Georgia's TANF Leavers: Findings from the TANF Follow-Up System Georgia Department of Human Resources Division of Family and Children Services January, 2004 Acknowledgments This report was prepared by Nancy Bross under contract to the Georgia Department of Human Resources. She would like to thank the staff of the Division of Family and Children Services, Evaluation and Reporting Section for their continuing support of the development and maintenance of the TANF Follow-Up System and for their assistance in the preparation of this report. Contents Executive Summary .....................................................................................................................i Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 The Welfare Environment .......................................................................................................... 3 The TANF Leaver Population..................................................................................................... 5 Patterns of Employment and Recidivism .................................................................................... 9 Longer Term Outcomes and Dimming Prospects for Self-Sufficiency ...................................... 15 Industries Employing TANF Leavers ........................................................................................ 21 Appendices: Appendix A........................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix B........................................................................................................................... 26 Executive Summary The TANF Follow-Up System tracks the employment, earnings, and return to TANF of adult recipients who have left TANF. It uses administrative data from the Department of Human Resources' management information system and the Georgia Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance (UI) wage report files. This report focuses on four annual groups of leavers ("annual cohorts") who left TANF from 1999 through 2002. Welfare Environment In January 2001 the US economy began an economic downturn that resulted in substantial and persistent job loss here in Georgia. Although recovery began in 2003, the effects of that recovery have not been seen in the employment of TANF leavers. Also in January 2001, recipients began to reach the 48-month State lifetime limit on receipt of TANF benefits. A year later, recipients who had been granted waivers of the State limit began to reach the 60-month Federal lifetime limit. The convergence of these two events created a harsh economic reality for long-term TANF recipients. Population of TANF Leavers During the period from 1999 through 2002, 111,277 adult recipients left TANF. Of these, 64 percent have appeared in only one annual leaver cohort since 1997. The remaining 36 percent have appeared in two or more cohorts. The demographic characteristics of the TANF leavers remained relatively stable from 1999 through 2002, with modest decreases in the proportion of black leavers, their average number of dependent children, and the percentage who were high school graduates. In 2002, the leavers' median age was 27, their average number of dependent children was 1.9, and the median age of their youngest child was 2. Only fifty-eight percent of the leavers were high school graduates. At the time they left, 50 percent of the 2002 leavers had accrued 1 to 12 lifetime limit months and 73 percent had accrued fewer than 25 months. These leavers were younger, had fewer children, and were more likely to be high school graduates and to be married or to have been married than longer-term recipients. Five percent of the 2002 leavers left TANF after accruing 49 to 70 months. These leavers had an average of 2.8 children, and only 45 percent had graduated from high school. Eighty-four percent had never been married, compared to sixty-nine percent of the leaver population as a whole. Patterns of Employment and Recidivism From 1999 through 2002, the percentage of leavers who were employed during at least one quarter of the first year after leaving TANF decreased from 77 to 71 percent. The percentage who returned to TANF increased from 23 percent in 1999 to 29 percent in 2001 but decreased slightly in 2002 as lifetime limits prevented some leavers from returning. i Within each annual cohort, the majority of those who returned to TANF in the first year after exit had also been employed during that year. Among the 2001 leavers, those employed leavers who returned to TANF worked fewer quarters, earned less in each quarter of employment, and earned less than half as much over the course of the year as those who did not return $3,981, compared to $8,423. They also were younger, had more children, and had accrued more lifetime limit months. There was a strong relationship between number of accrued lifetime limit months and employment and earnings in the first year after exit. In the 2001 leaver cohort, as number of accrued months increased, number of quarters worked, average earnings in quarters worked, and average annual earnings all decreased. Only 7 percent of those who had accrued more than 48 months when they left TANF had average monthly earnings in the first year after exit that exceeded the TANF Gross Income Ceiling for their family size, compared to 27 percent of those who had accrued only 1 to 12 months when they left TANF. There was a strong relationship between continuity of employment and earnings. Higher earnings motivate, support, and result from steady employment. Consequently, the more quarters leavers worked in the year following exit from TANF, the more they earned in each quarter worked. Leavers who worked in all four quarters had annual earnings that were 12 times higher than those who worked in only one quarter. Other factors that had a substantial impact on earnings were having a high school diploma and, among high school graduates, living in a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Graduates who were employed earned an average of $8,235, while non-graduates averaged $5,367. Longer Term Outcomes and Dimming Prospects for Self-Sufficiency Within annual leaver cohorts, employment decreased in successive post-exit years, but the earnings of those who were employed increased. Within each post-exit year, employment rates decreased with each successive cohort. The decline in percentage of leavers employed in all four quarters of a year is of particular concern because they are the leavers who make the most economic progress. The economic downturn that began in 2001 undoubtedly contributed to decreasing employment. By the first quarter of 2003 the most recent quarter for which earnings data are available the quarterly employment rates of TANF leavers across all cohorts were the lowest recorded since follow-up began in 1997 and about nine percentage points lower than they had been before the downturn began. The net effect of Georgia's job loss on those who left TANF from 1999 to 2002 is that an estimated 10,000 fewer were employed by the first quarter of 2003, with a corresponding loss of about $25,000,000 in earnings a quarter. When the annual earnings of employed leavers are compared to the Federal Poverty Guidelines, which are keyed to family size and adjusted annually for cost of living, it is clear that, as a group, TANF leavers are losing ground. While it continues to be true that the longer it has been since recipients left TANF, the greater the probability that their annual earnings exceed the Poverty Guidelines, the percentage of leavers whose earnings have exceeded this measure of economic well-being has decreased with every successive annual cohort since 1997. ii Among the 1999 leavers, 85 percent worked at some time in the 3 years following exit, and 20 percent worked in all 12 quarters. Number of quarters worked was strongly associated with whether a leaver had earnings in the third year after exit that exceed the Poverty Guidelines. Forty-three percent of those who had worked in every quarter had earnings above the Poverty Guidelines, compared to thirteen percent of all 1999 leavers. However, leavers with three or more children were very unlikely to have earnings that exceeded the Poverty Guidelines, regardless of how many quarters they had worked. A "snapshot" of dependency on public assistance, taken in June 2003, showed that the longer it had been since an annual cohort had left TANF, the smaller the percentage of leavers who received Food Stamps, Medicaid, or Child Care Assistance that month. Thirty-five percent of the 1997 cohort received Food Stamps in June 2003, although only 8 percent received TANF that month. Among the 2002 cohort, 57 percent received Food Stamps and 15 percent received TANF. Those who received Food Stamps generally received Medicaid as well. Dependency on public assistance was strongly associated with accrued lifetime limit months at time of exit. In the 2001 leaver cohort, 43 percent of those who had 1 to 12 accrued months at exit received Food Stamps in June 2003, and 51 percent received Medicaid. However, 80 percent of those who had accrued 48 to 60 months received Food Stamps in June 2003, and 73 percent received Medicaid. As job growth returns, we should begin to see increased employment among TANF leavers. However, the prospects for the small percentage of leavers who reach the lifetime limits and exhaust their eligibility for TANF are likely to remain very grim. Industries Employing TANF Leavers Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes are available for leavers' employers. These codes provide information at three levels of detail: industrial divisions, major industrial groups, and specific industries. Eighty percent of the 2001 leavers who were employed in the fourth quarter after exit worked in the industrial divisions of Retail Trade or Services. At the next level of detail, 57 percent of the 2001 leavers were employed in just ten major industrial groups. The top three industrial groups were Eating and Drinking Places, Personnel Supply Services, and Nursing and Personal Care Facilities. Overall, 42 percent of the 2001 leavers had not graduated from high school, but only 37 percent of those who were employed were non-graduates. Among industries employing 75 or more leavers, there was an inverse relationship between average quarterly earnings and the percentage of leavers employed in the industry who had not graduated from high school. Telephone Communications had the highest average quarterly earnings ($4,998) and only 13 percent of the leavers working in telephone communications lacked a high school diploma. At the other extreme, Variety Stores had the lowest average quarterly earnings ($1,632) and 50 percent of those working in that industry had not graduated from high school. iii iv Introduction Georgia began implementation of Temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF) on January 1, 1997. With TANF came more stringent work requirements for welfare recipients, a lifetime limit on receipt of welfare payments, and an end to the concept of entitlement. The Georgia Department of Human Resources (DHR) established the TANF Follow-Up System to track the employment, earnings, and recidivism of adults leaving TANF. Over 168,000 adults have left TANF since 1997. This report summarizes the post-TANF outcomes of those who left TANF during the period from 1999 through 2002. Methodology The TANF Follow-Up System is a data base containing information on adult recipients from closed TANF cases. In this data base, DHR data on TANF recipients are matched to quarterly earnings data from the Georgia Department of Labor (GDOL). Identifying Adult Leavers. The event that triggers inclusion in follow-up is case closure. However, because families may go on and off TANF as their circumstances change or they go in and out of compliance with program requirements, it is not always clear when a case is truly closed. Therefore, for purposes of follow-up, a case is considered closed when no benefits are received in two successive months. Recipients are added to the TANF Follow-Up System the first time they meet the criterion for inclusion during a calendar year. If they receive additional benefits at a later date, they are considered recidivists. However, they only appear once in the follow-up file for that year. The adults who left TANF during a calendar year make up the "annual leaver cohort" for that year. Only those adults who were actually TANF recipients are addressed in this report. Excluded are adults who received a benefit on behalf of a dependent child but who were not, themselves, part of the TANF grant. Data. All of the data in the TANF Follow-Up System come from administrative data systems. The advantages of such data are low cost and continuity over time. The disadvantage is that neither what is collected nor how it is organized and maintained is likely to be ideal for research purposes. Data on TANF recipients and households come from DHR's SUCCESS system. Data on employment and earnings come from GDOL's unemployment insurance (UI) wage record. This record is a report of quarterly earnings submitted by all employers in the state whose workers are covered under the UI system. It does not include information on wage levels, number of hours worked, or whether employment was continuous. However, it does provide total earnings in the quarter and the employer's Standard Industrial Classification code. Leavers are considered to have been employed in a particular quarter if they had any reported earnings for that quarter. UI earnings data provide a low-cost way of tracking employment over time. However, they have two important limitations. First, UI earnings data are only available for those jobs covered under the unemployment insurance system. Notable exclusions are federal jobs and self-employment, including informal work arrangements. For example, if a TANF leaver supplements her income by providing occasional childcare to a neighbor, the resulting earnings are unlikely to be 1 reported to the UI system. In addition, the earnings of Georgians who work in neighboring states are not included in Georgia's UI data base. Therefore, UI data consistently underestimate employment and earnings (especially in interstate labor markets) and the figures contained in this report reflect minimum levels of employment and earnings among former TANF recipients. Second, because of the time required for employer reporting and State processing of UI earnings data, complete data on earnings for any quarter are not available until three quarters later. Therefore, in this report, data on employment in the exit quarter are available for all adult recipients who left TANF during 1999 though 2002. However, post-exit earnings data are only available through the first quarter of 2003. Data on recidivism come from SUCCESS files of active TANF recipients. This report includes data on recidivism through September 2003. This year, "snapshot" data for the month of June 2003 on receipt of Food Stamps, Medicaid, and Child Care Assistance have been added to leaver's follow-up records. 2 The Welfare Environment Changing TANF Caseload Figure 1 Prior to the implementation of TANF in January 1997, Georgia had introduced a "work first" approach to services that had resulted in a steady decrease in the number of households receiving welfare benefits each month. TANF mandated work requirements and set a 60-month lifetime limit on receipt of family assistance. At the same time, Georgia established a more stringent State limit of 48 months. While these limits may be waived for reasons such as domestic violence or disability, the message went out to recipients that TANF benefits are limited and should be saved for when they are needed most. From 1997 through 1999, the number of Georgia households receiving TANF declined rapidly as monthly counts of closed cases exceeded the number of new cases being opened. (See Figure 1.) Undoubtedly, the transformation of welfare from an entitlement to a limited benefit contributed to this decline. Early leavers were those most able to leave. However, a strong economy and low unemployment rates also helped families leave TANF. In 2000, the monthly caseload leveled off, with the number of households coming into TANF balancing the number of households leaving TANF. However, beginning early in 2001, the number of households receiving TANF began to increase. By October 2003, the TANF caseload had reached a level last seen in May 1999. Lifetime Limits In January 2001, TANF recipients began to reach the 48-month State limit on receipt of TANF benefits. A year later, recipients who had been granted waivers of the State limit began to reach the 60-month Federal limit. Again, some waivers have been granted, but about five percent of the 2001 and 2002 leaver cohorts are former recipients who have exceeded the lifetime limits. Reduced Employment Opportunity The increase in households receiving TANF coincided with an economic downturn that caused substantial job loss here in Georgia. Figure 2 shows the number of new unemployment insurance claims over the period from the first quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2003. Workers are eligible for unemployment insurance when they lose their jobs through no fault of their own, and the number of new claims is a useful indicator of labor market conditions. That is, high numbers of new claims are indicative of a loss in the total number of jobs available combined with an increase in the number of workers seeking employment. 1 1 Data on new claims were obtained from the Georgia Department of Labor website at www.dol.state.ga.us. 3 The effects of the economic downturn on new claims for unemployment insurance were first seen in the first quarter of 2001. Since then new claims have remained relatively high. During this period, the quarterly employment rates of the leavers tracked through the TANF Follow-Up System have reflected overall job loss in Georgia. This effect has been seen across all cohorts. While there were many signs of economic recovery in 2003, that recovery was not seen by Georgia's workers during the period covered by this report. Figure 2 Growing Urban Regions Georgia experienced very substantial population growth between the 1990 and 2000 Censuses. While many counties in Georgia remain rural, Georgia's Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were redefined and expanded in 2003 to reflect the state's expanding urban areas. Under the 2003 map, 70 counties are part of 15 MSAs, including MSAs for smaller cities such as Rome, Brunswick, and Valdosta.2 Under the current definition, an MSA is an area with a population of 50,000 that is centered on an urban core and linked by commuting patterns. Workers residing in MSAs have access to larger and more diverse labor markets than those residing in areas outside of the MSAs. The impact of living with one of Georgia's MSAs on employment and earnings is examined in this report. 2 Information on Georgia's 2003 MSAs was obtained from the Carl Vinson Institute of Government, University of Georgia at www.ced.gatech.edu. 4 The TANF Leaver Population Leaver Characteristics This report focuses on adult TANF recipients who left TANF during the period from 1999 through 2002. The demographic characteristics of these leavers are shown in Table 1, below. In general, the four annual cohorts are very similar. However, there were several modest trends over the four year period. Specifically, the proportion of black leavers declined slightly while the proportion of white leavers made a corresponding increase. The average number of dependent children also decreased steadily, as did the percentage of leavers who had graduated from high school. While none of these changes is large, in each case the direction of change has been consistent over time. Table 1 Leaver Characteristics by Annual Leaver Cohort Characteristic Number of Leavers Women Median Age Black White Other Married, Living Together Never Married Divorced, Separated, Widowed Average Number of Dependent Children Median Age of Youngest Child High School Graduate Median Accrued Lifetime Limit Months Resides in MSA Annual Leaver Cohort 1999 2000 2001 2002 38,244 33,407 32,359 35,566 95% 96% 96% 95% 28 27 76% 76% 23% 24% 2% 1% 7% 7% 68% 71% 22% 22% 2.2 2.1 27 74% 24% 1% 7% 70% 23% 2.0 27 72% 26% 2% 8% 69% 23% 1.9 3 3 2 2 61% 60% 58% 58% --- --- 13 13 72% 71% 71% 72% Repeated Exits One reason why the cohorts are so similar is that there is considerable overlap between them. During the period from January 1999 through December 2002, 111,277 adult recipients left TANF. Of these, 64 percent have appeared in only one annual leaver cohort since 1997. The remaining 36 percent were members of at least one other leaver cohort. 5 Table 2 compares the characteristics of those who left in 2000, based on the number of cohorts in which they have appeared since 1997.3 The differences between those who appeared in only one cohort and those who have appeared in three or more cohorts are striking. Those who have appeared repeatedly in the leaver population are younger but they have more children. They are less likely to be or to have been married, less likely to have graduated from high school, and more likely to be black. They are less likely to live in an MSA. Table 2 2000 Leaver Characteristics by Number of Cohorts in which Leaver has Appeared Characteristic Percentage of Leavers Median Age Women High School Graduate Married, Living Together Never Married Divorced, Separated, Widowed Ave. Number of Children Median Age of Youngest Child Black White Other Resides in MSA Number of Cohorts 1 2 3 or More 48% 32% 19% 28 27 26 93% 98% 99% 62% 59% 55% 10% 5% 3% 66% 75% 78% 25% 20% 19% 1.8 2.0 2.2 3 2 2 68% 80% 86% 31% 20% 14% 1% .4% .2% 73% 71% 65% Long-Term Recipients Patterns of TANF receipt vary widely. The majority of recipients receives TANF for a relatively short period of time and does not return. However, some recipients leave and returned to TANF repeatedly, while others receive TANF steadily over a period of years before leaving. Therefore, the characteristics of those who appear in multiple cohorts reflect the TANF recidivist population, but not necessarily the population of long-term recipients. Table 3 compares leaver characteristics by number of tracked TANF months. It is based on leavers from the 2002 cohort since that cohort includes those leavers who received TANF the longest before they left. 3 The 2000 cohort was chosen because it is the most recent cohort in which all members have had the opportunity to appear in at least 3 cohorts. 6 The majority of the 2002 leavers were in no immediate danger of reaching their lifetime limits. Seventy-three percent left TANF with fewer than 25 accrued lifetime limit months. These leavers were younger, had fewer and younger children, were more likely to be married or to have been married, and were more likely to have graduated from high school than those who left after accruing more than two years of lifetime limit months. Table 3 2002 Leaver Characteristics by Accrued Lifetime Limit Months Characteristic Percentage of Leavers Women Median Age Black White Other Married, Living Together Never Married Divorced, Separated, Widowed Average Number of Dependent Children Median Age of Youngest Child High School Graduate Resides in MSA Accrued Lifetime Limit Months 1 12 13 24 25 36 37 48 49 72 50% 23% 13% 10% 5% 92% 97% 99% 99% 99% 26 26 27 28 30 62% 76% 85% 90% 94% 36% 23% 15% 9% 6% 1% 1% 1% 1% .4% 12% 6% 4% 3% 2% 62% 72% 76% 81% 84% 26% 23% 20% 16% 14% 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.8 2 2 3 3 4 61% 59% 55% 50% 45% 72% 70% 70% 72% 81% Recipients may only remain on TANF after reaching the 48-month State lifetime limit if they receive a waiver from their county TANF program. Just three counties Fulton, Richmond, and Dougherty accounted for 55 percent of all the 2002 leavers who had received TANF for more than 48 months, although together these large counties served just 22 percent of the 2002 leaver population. Nevertheless, the characteristics of those who had received TANF for more than 48 months fit the trends seen as the number of accrued lifetime limit months increases. Clearly, those who remained on TANF longer had more strikes against them with regard to their ability to support their families more children, less education, and less apparent connection to the fathers of their children. Because of the inter-relationships between leaver characteristics, Table 3 does not make it clear whether each of the observed differences is important in understanding those most at risk of becoming long-term TANF recipients. Table 4, below, shows the results of the linear regression 7 of key leaver characteristics on number of accrued lifetime limit months.4 Each of these characteristics makes a statistically significant contribution to accounting for accrued lifetime limit months, and together they account for 20 percent of the variance in number of accrued months across the 2002 leavers. That percentage is substantial, but it also points to the importance of other, unknown factors and individual differences. Table 4 Predicting Accrued Lifetime Limit Months from 2002 Leaver Characteristics Model (Constant) B* -3.766 Standard Error .404 T Significance -9.328 .000 Age Children in Grant .265 3.757 .014 19.528 .000 .067 55.905 .000 Age of Youngest Child .326 .022 14.645 .000 Male -8.720 .361 -24.180 .000 Black 5.729 .177 32.403 .000 Never Married Married, Together 4.897 -1.657 .195 25.089 .000 .304 -5.460 .000 High School Graduate -3.220 .149 -21.635 .000 * Unstandardized regression coefficient Variables within this model can be understood, for example, as "when all of these variables are taken into consideration together, each child in the grant adds 3.757 months to a recipient's predicted accrued lifetime limit months at exit" or "when all of these variables are taken into consideration together, never having been married increases a recipient's predicted accrued months by 4.897." Within the model, the characteristic accounting for the most variation in number of accrued lifetime limit months is the number of children in the grant. Because TANF eligibility rules take number in family into consideration in evaluating income eligibility, recipients with larger families can earn more without becoming ineligible. As a practical matter, the more children recipients have, the more they must earn to support their families and the more complex the problems they must resolve in order to be able to go to work. Both factors eligibility and feasibility probably contribute to keeping larger families on TANF longer. 4 Residing in an MSA was also tested, but did not make a significant, independent contribution to accounting for number of tracked months. 8 Patterns of Employment and Recidivism Outcomes in the First Year after Exit The TANF work requirements, combined with lifetime limits on receipt of benefits, reflect a belief that most recipients can make the transition to steady employment, capable of supporting themselves and their families, within the benefit period. The employment, earnings, and recidivism of TANF leavers over the first year after they leave TANF reveal the efforts of former recipients to meet the challenge set by TANF policy, and the extent to which they are successful. Table 5, below, looks at employment and return to TANF in the first year following exit for the leaver cohorts from 1999 through 2002. Over this period, the percentage of leavers who were employed during the year (i.e. had earnings in at least one of the four quarters following their exit from TANF) decreased from 77 to 71 percent. Nevertheless, a small majority of each cohort was employed and did not return to TANF. From 1999 through 2001, an increase in recidivism mirrored the decrease in employment. However in 2002, as recipients began to reach the 60-month Federal lifetime limit, recidivism decreased slightly and the number of leavers who were neither employed nor returned to TANF increased. Table 5 Employment and Return to TANF in the First Year after Exit by Annual Exit Cohort Employment/Return Group 1999 2000 2001 2002* Employed, Did not Return 58% 54% 52% 51% Employed, Returned 19% 21% 22% 20% Not Employed, Returned 4% 5% 7% 8% Neither Employed nor Returned 18% 20% 20% 22% Total Employed 77% 75% 74% 71% Total Returned 23% 26% 29% 28% *Based on the 8,864 2002 leavers for whom a full year of follow-up data is available. Outcomes by Number of Accrued Lifetime Limit Months The effect of lifetime limit policies on recidivism can be seen in Table 6. This table presents data on employment and return to TANF by number of accrued TANF months for those who left TANF in 2001. Among the 2001 leavers, the employment rate was highest among those with 1 to 12 accrued months and lowest for those with 49 to 60 accrued months. Recidivism was highest for those with 25 to 36 accrued months, due in part to a relatively high proportion of leavers who were employed, but who also returned to TANF. Those who had reached the State 9 lifetime limit had the lowest recidivism rate 20 percent in spite of the fact that their employment rate was also the lowest. The proportion of this group that neither worked nor returned to TANF was much higher than for any other group. We do not know what those who were not found in either the Georgia unemployment insurance records or the TANF rolls were doing. They may have married and stayed home with their children, depended on family members, moved out of Georgia, received disability payments, worked in a neighboring state, or held a job that was not covered by unemployment insurance. However, the high proportion of these leavers among those who left TANF after reaching their State lifetime limits points to a group of leavers who were unable to make a successful transition off welfare within the time allowed by TANF. Over time, as more recipients reach their limits, it is likely that this segment of the leaver population will increase. Table 6 Employment and Return to TANF in the First Year After Exit by Number of Tracked TANF Months among 2001 Leavers* Employment/Return Group 1-12 13-24 25-36 37-48 49-60 Percentage of Leavers 47% 23% 13% 11% 6% Employed, Did not Return 56% 50% 46% 46% 49% Employed, Returned 19% 26% 29% 26% 13% Not Employed, Returned 5% 7% 9% 9% 7% Neither Employed nor Returned 20% 17% 17% 19% 32% Total Employed 75% 76% 75% 72% 62% Total Returned 24% 33% 38% 33% 20% *Based on the 29,609 2001 leavers for whom data on accrued lifetime limit months are available. Until they reach their lifetime limits, longer-term recipients who leave TANF are more likely to return to TANF than those who have received benefits for fewer months. The reason for this pattern may be seen in Table 7, which presents data on employment and earnings in the first year after exit by number of accrued lifetime limit months. Most leavers do not work steadily in the first year after they leave TANF, so they may experience periods of TANF eligibility. On average, however, longer-term recipients earn less when they work and so are more likely to return. The plight of those who have reached their lifetime limits, most of who are unable to return to TANF, is very clear in Table 7. They work less, they earn less when they work, and their incomes are very low. 10 Table 7 Employment and Earnings in the First Year after Exit by Number of Accrued Lifetime Limit Months among 2001 Leavers Employment and Earnings 1-12 13-24 25-36 37-48 49-60 Ave. Quarters Worked (All) 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 Employed in All Quarters 38% 35% 35% 29% 23% Average Quarterly Earnings in Quarters Worked Ave. Annual Earnings (Employed Only) Ave. Monthly Earnings above TANF Gross Income Ceiling5 (All) $2,629 $8,009 27% $2,319 $6,913 22% $2,122 $6,302 18% $1,950 $5,527 12% $1,756 $4,800 7% *Based on the 29,609 leavers for whom data on accrued lifetime limit months are available. Those Who Return to TANF The majority of TANF leavers work during at least one quarter in the year following their exit from TANF. Among those who are employed, most do not return. However, those who do reflect the tension inherent in TANF the need to work, the difficulty of sustaining employment over time, and approaching lifetime limits. Employed leavers who do and do not return to TANF can be compared in two respects their characteristics and their employment experiences. Table 8 compares the characteristics of the 2001 leavers who were employed during the first year after they left TANF based on whether or not they returned to TANF during that year. Those who returned to TANF were younger but had accrued more lifetime limit months. They were less likely to have graduated from high school and to be or have been married. Those employed leavers who did not return to TANF worked more quarters, earned more in the quarters in which they worked, and had annual earnings that were, on average, more than twice as high as the earnings of those who returned to TANF. (See Table 9.) 5 See Appendix A. 11 Table 8 Characteristics of 2001 Leavers Employed in the First Year After Exit by Recidivism Status* Characteristics Returned Did Not Return Percentage of Employed Leavers 30% 70% Women 99% 96% Median Age Black White Other Married, Living Together Never Married Divorced, Separated, Widowed Ave. Number of Dependent Children 25 84% 15% 1% 4% 78% 18% 2.1 27 74% 24% 1% 7% 69% 24% 2.0 Median Age of Youngest Child 2 2 High School Graduate 54% 63% Median Accrued Lifetime Limit Months 16 12 Resides in MSA 70% 72% * Based on 23,791 2001 leavers employed in the first year following exit. Table 9 First Year Earnings and Quarters Worked by Recidivism Status: Employed 2001 Leavers Outcome Quarters Worked: One Two Three Four Average Earnings in Quarters Worked Average Annual Earnings Returned Did Not Return 22% 25% 25% 28% $1,538 $3,981 14% 14% 17% 56% $2,679 $8,423 12 Labor Force Attachment Labor force attachment is the strength of a worker's connection to the workforce. Number of quarters worked is an indicator of labor force attachment, with more quarters indicative of steadier employment. Higher earnings promote labor force attachment by motivating and supporting continued employment. In turn, as workers remain in the workforce, their earnings increase. Figure 3 The relationship between labor force attachment and earnings is seen in Figure 3, which shows average quarterly earnings by number of quarters worked for employed 2001 leavers who did, and did not, return to TANF. In both groups, average quarterly earnings increased as number of quarters of employment increased. However, the rate of increase was substantially higher for those who did not return to TANF. Another way of understanding the role of earnings in sustained employment is by looking at the relationship between employment and earnings in one quarter and employment in the next quarter. The experience of the 2001 leavers in the third and fourth quarters after they left TANF is typical. Among those who were employed in the third post-exit quarter, 83 percent were also employed in the fourth quarter, while only 16 percent of those who were not employed in the Figure 4 third quarter were employed in the fourth. But among those who were employed in the third post exit quarter, those who earned more were more likely to work in the fourth quarter as well. (See Figure 4.) At the very lowest earning levels, the probablility of subsequent employment was less than 60 percent, but for those who earned $2,500 or more, it was over 90 percent. Both local labor market conditions and what workers have to offer affect the price they can get for their labor. Table 10 shows average annual earnings by quarters worked, high school graduation, and MSA/non-MSA. 13 Table 10 Average Annual Earnings by Quarters of Employment, High School Graduation and MSA Residence* Quarters of Employment High School Graduate MSA Non-MSA Non-Graduate MSA Non-MSA One $1,078 $932 $785 $822 Two $3,045 $2,845 $2,293 $2,296 Three $6,078 $5,472 $4,567 $4,701 Four $12,935 $11,260 $9,693 $9,282 * Based on the 23,788 2001 leaver who were employed in the first year following their exit from TANF. The importance of working steadily is seen across all groups. Those who worked four quarters had average annual earnings that were more than 12 times higher than the average annual earnings of those who worked only one quarter. Among high school graduates, those who lived in counties located within one of the state's MSAs consistently made more then those who lived in rural counties whose labor markets were not linked to urban centers. Overall, graduates who lived in MSAs averaged $8,575 for the year, while those living outside of MSAs had average annual earnings of $7,321. However, among the non-graduates, residence within an MSA did not mean consistently higher earnings. As a group, non-graduates living in MSAs averaged $5,461, while those in non-MSAs earned an average of $5,149. Regardless of where they lived, leavers who had not graduated from high school were at the bottom of the labor market. 14 Longer Term Outcomes and Dimming Prospects for Self-Sufficiency Building economic stability and well-being is a gradual process. Longer term outcomes provide evidence of the extent to which leavers are or are not improving their circumstances and becoming more self-sufficient. In addition, longer term outcomes provide evidence of the effects of the economic downturn that began on 2001 on the employment and earnings of TANF leavers. Table 11 Employment, Earnings and Recidivism by Annual Leaver Cohort and Post-Exit Year* Outcome 1999 2000 2001 2002 First Year Employed in at Least One Quarter 77% 75% 74% 71% Employed in All Four Quarters 40% 38% 35% 33% Ave. Annual Earnings (Employed Only) $7,336 $7,199 $7,097 $7,199 Ave. Earnings per Quarter Worked $2,365 $2,350 $2,384 $2,431 Returned to TANF 24% 27% 29% 28% Ave. Months on TANF (Returned Only) 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 No Known Outcomes 18% 20% 20% 22% Second Year Employed in at Least One Quarter 72% 68% 66% Employed in All Four Quarters 40% 34% 31% Ave. Earnings (Employed Only) $8,361 $7,880 $7,672 Ave. Earnings per Quarter Worked $2,673 $2,604 $2,579 Returned to TANF 22% 29% 31% Ave. Months on TANF (Returned Only) 6.2 6.3 6.3 No Known Outcomes 22% 24% 24% Third Year Employed in at Least One Quarter 66% 64% Employed in All Four Quarters 35% 32% Ave. Earnings (Employed Only) $8,956 $8,400 Ave. Earnings per Quarter Worked $2,889 $2,771 Returned to TANF 23% 26% Ave. Months on TANF (Returned Only) 6.4 6.3 No Known Outcomes 27% 28% * For cohorts 2000 to 2002, the most recent data shown are for leavers who left TANF between January and March of the cohort year, as these are the only cohort members for whom complete data are available. 15 Reduced Employment Opportunity Table 11 compares employment, earnings, and recidivism across three annual cohorts and three post-exit years. In each successive cohort, employment rates declined within post-exit years. For the 1999 through 2001 cohorts, recidivism rates increased as employment rates decreased. However, in 2002, as leavers began to reach the 60-month Federal lifetime limit, the recidivism rate did not go up in response to the lower employment rate. Within post-exit years, earnings generally decreased across successive cohorts. However, between post exityears, earnings have consistently increased. That is, the more time that has passed since a cohort left TANF, the more those who were employed earned, both per quarter worked and annually. Comparisons of employment rates across post-exit years is complicated by the fact that, over time, more former recipients are likely to have moved out of Georgia. Increasing percentages of leavers for whom no outcomes are known supports the hypothesis that the available leaver population does shrink over time. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion of the decreasing employment rates can be attributed to the effects of the economic downturn that began in the first quarter of 2001. The first full years in which reduced job opportunity as a result of the economic downturn were seen in each cohort were the third year after exit for the 1999 cohort, the second year after exit for the 2000 cohort, and the first year after exit for the 2001 and 2002 cohorts. Table 12 Quarterly Employment Rates by Exit Cohort and Post-Exit Quarter Exit Cohort N Exit Post-Exit Quarter Qtr Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 19991 11,678 61% 63% 59% 59% 58% 59% 57% 57% 55% 54% 53% 19992 10,485 63% 62% 59% 58% 58% 57% 57% 54% 54% 53% 52% 19993 8,390 64% 64% 61% 60% 58% 58% 56% 55% 54% 52% 50% 19994 7,691 65% 64% 61% 59% 57% 56% 56% 55% 53% 50% 52% 20001 9,243 61% 63% 58% 58% 55% 54% 53% 51% 49% 51% 49% 20002 8,595 64% 62% 60% 55% 55% 53% 52% 49% 50% 50% 49% 20003 7,852 62% 63% 58% 57% 55% 53% 51% 52% 51% 49% 47% 20004 7,717 61% 60% 56% 54% 52% 49% 51% 49% 48% 46% 20011 8,961 60% 60% 55% 53% 50% 52% 50% 48% 46% 20012 8,579 61% 60% 54% 50% 52% 50% 49% 46% 20013 7,627 61% 60% 55% 55% 53% 52% 49% 20014 7,192 61% 58% 57% 54% 52% 50% 20021 8,864 54% 57% 53% 51% 48% 20022 9,399 57% 55% 53% 49% 20023 8,869 57% 56% 51% 20024 8,434 56% 53% Note: Shaded cells contain data for the 1st quarter of 2001 the first quarter of the economic downturn. Q11 52% 49% 51% 51% 48% 46% Q12 50% 51% 50% 50% 46% These effects can be seen in Table 12, which presents quarterly employment rates by quarterly exit cohort and post-exit quarter. In this table, employment rates for the first quarter of 2001 are shaded. Figures below the shaded cells reflect employment taking place after the downturn 16 began. Employment rates were generally lower than they had been in the previous quarter, and, for the most part, they have continued to decline since then. Rates in the final quarter of the table the first quarter of 2003 are the lowest seen in six years of TANF follow-up and are about nine percentage points lower than rates seen before January 2001. It appears that, in the first quarter of 2003, approximately 10,000 fewer of the 1999 through 2002 leavers were working as a result of reduced job opportunities, with a corresponding quarterly loss of about $25,000,000 in earnings. As the economy experiences job growth, this picture will improve, but it will be a long time before the employment rates of TANF leavers return to their old levels. Progress toward Self-Sufficiency The Federal Poverty Guidelines (Appendix A) are keyed to family size and adjusted annually for increases in the cost of living. Consequently, earnings relative to the Poverty Guidelines not only provide a measure of progress out of poverty, but they also provide an indication of how well leavers' earnings are keeping up with increases in the cost of living. Table 13 shows the percentage of employed leavers with annual earnings above the Federal Poverty Guidelines across five annual cohorts and four post-exit years. In each annual cohort, the percentage of employed leavers with annual earnings above the Federal Poverty Guidelines increases with each successive post-exit year. That is, the cohorts are making progress. But within post-exit years, the percentage with annual earnings that exceed the Poverty Guidelines has decreased with each successive cohort. That is, leavers' earnings are not keeping up with increases in the cost of living. Each year, as minimum wage has remained constant, the poverty level has become a tougher mark to hit, and fewer leavers have hit it. Table 13 Percentage of Employed Leavers with Annual Earnings in Excess of Federal Poverty Guidelines Leaver Cohort 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 First 18% 15% 14% 14% 13% Post-Exit Year Second Third 24% 29% 20% 23% 18% 20% 17% Fourth 31% 24% Still, those who work steadily over time do make progress. The 1999 leaver cohort illustrates the importance of stable employment in moving out of poverty. Over the three year-period following exit, 85 percent of cohort members worked in at least one quarter, and 20 percent worked in every quarter. (See Figure 5.) 17 As in the first year following exit, those who worked more quarters had higher average quarterly earnings and therefore much higher average earnings over the three-year period. (See Table 14.) While 13 percent of all 1999 leavers had earnings over the Poverty Guidelines for their family size in the third year following exit, 43% of those who had worked in every quarter had third-year earnings above the Poverty Guidelines. Because earnings were higher for leavers who resided in counties within the state's MSAs, a higher percentage of those who lived in MSAs (14 versus 11 percent) had earnings that exceeded the Poverty Guidelines in their third year following exit. Figure 5 Table 14 1999 Leavers' Earnings by Number of Quarters Worked Quarters Worked 1 Average Quarterly Earnings in Quarters Worked $991 Average 3-Year Earnings $991 Year 3 Earnings Exceed Poverty Guidelines 0% 2 $1,081 $2,162 <1% 3 $1,316 $3,947 <1% 4 $1,422 $5,688 <1% 5 $1,518 $7,590 2% 6 $1,686 $10,113 3% 7 $1,824 $12,766 4% 8 $1,986 $15,891 7% 9 $2,174 $19,565 9% 10 $2,417 $24,173 13% 11 $2,813 $30,939 23% 12 All Leavers $3,517 $1,905 $42,207 $17,537 43% 13% 18 Number of children is also an important factor in whether or not leavers achieve earnings above the Poverty Guidelines, since the poverty level increases as family size increases. This increase, of course, reflects the fact that as family size increases, so do the resources required to meet the needs of family members. Figure 6 is based on the earnings of 1999 leavers in their third year following exit and shows the relationships between number of quarters worked, number of children, and the probability that a family will have earnings that exceed the Poverty Guidelines.6 Very few Figure 6 larger families are able to make this transition within three years after leaving TANF, even with stable employment over time. On the other hand, a majority of those who have only one child and who work steadily achieve earnings above the Poverty Guidelines. Even if TANF leavers are no longer dependent on TANF, or eligible to receive benefits under that program, they may still be receiving other forms of public assistance. Table 15 reflects a "snapshot" of dependency, based on benefits provided in the month of June 2003. The more recent the leaver cohort was, the higher the percentage of leavers who received assistance that month. Those who were receiving Child Care Assistance generally were employed and not receiving TANF. Food Stamps and Medicaid typically occurred together. That is, if leavers received one, the generally received the other as well. While relatively few of the leavers in any cohort were receiving TANF, a substantial proportion of each cohort was dependent on other forms of assistance. Leaver Cohort 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Table 15 Receipt of Public Assistance in June 2003 by TANF Leavers TANF 8% Child Care Assistance 6% Food Stamps 35% Medicaid 35% 10% 12% 7% 43% 43% 9% 48% 48% 14% 12% 52% 54% 16% 14% 55% 59% 15% 16% 57% 63% 6 Probability of exceeding the Poverty Guidelines is based on the logistical regression of number of children (grouped data) and number of quarters worked on whether or not a leaver had 3rd year earnings above the poverty level. 19 Finally, looking again at the 2001 leavers who have reached their lifetime limits (Table 16), we see that in June 2003 relatively few were receiving TANF or Child Care Assistance, presumably because they were not eligible for TANF and relatively few of them were employed. But proportionally more of them were receiving Food Stamps or Medicaid than were those who had accrued fewer months when they left TANF. Although no longer on TANF, the great majority were still dependent on public assistance. Unfortunately, it does not appear that this dependency is likely to change for most of them in the foreseeable future. Table 16 Assistance Received by 2001 Leaver Cohort in June 2003 Type of Assistance TANF Child Care Assistance Food Stamps Medicaid 112 13% 14% 43% 51% Accrued Lifetime Limit Months 1324 2536 3748 20% 22% 14% 17% 16% 10% 58% 67% 75% 63% 67% 73% 48-60 11% 8% 80% 73% 20 Industries Employing TANF Leavers The UI wage record does not provide information on a worker's occupation. However, it does include the employer's Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. This coding system identifies industries at three levels of detail: industrial division, major industry group, and specific industry. Although SIC codes tell us where TANF leavers are working, their usefulness as an indicator of what the leavers are doing is varied. Some occupations, such as child care worker, are strongly associated with a particular industry while others, such as computer programmer, are found in many different industries. Nevertheless, industries of employment enrich our understanding of the experiences of adults who leave TANF. Table 17 shows the top ten major industry groups of the 2001 TANF leavers who were employed in the fourth quarter of their first year following exit. Together, these industry groups account for 57 percent of the 16,597 employed 2001 leavers for whom valid SIC codes are available. Table 17 2001 Leavers' Top Ten Industries of Employment Major Industry Group Eating and Drinking Places Personnel Supply Services* Percent of Total Employment 19% 9% Average Quarterly Earnings $1,668 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 5% $1,884 11% Nursing & Personal Care Facilities 6% $2,406 11% Grocery Stores 4% $2,102 12% Department Stores 4% $2,464 15% Child Day Care Services Hospitals 3% $2,264 3% $4,017 10% 40% Hotels & Motels 3% $1,836 8% Elementary & Secondary Schools 3% $2,523 15% Miscellaneous Business Services** 2% $2,480 * Includes temporary agencies and providers of contract workers. ** Includes companies providing office cleaning and security services. 18% The list of industry groups in which TANF leavers work has remained very stable over time. In fact, the same industry groups were the "top ten" for the 2000 leaver cohort as well. All of these industries employ large numbers of low-skill workers. Given that full-time employment at minimum wage yields earnings of about $2,678 a quarter, it is clear that part-time or temporary employment was common within the industry groups employing the majority of TANF leavers. 21 Nine of the top ten industry groups were the same for leavers who did and did not reside within an MSA. "Miscellaneous Business Services" was replaced in the list of top ten industry groups by "Manufacturers of Meat Products" for leavers who lived in counties not located with an MSA. In each of the remaining industries, average quarterly earnings were higher for leavers who lived in an MSA. Eighteen percent of the 2001 leavers who were employed in the fourth quarter of the year following exit had earnings in that year that exceeded the Poverty Guidelines. Table 18 lists their top ten industry groups. These industry groups employed 40 percent of the 2,921 leavers with annual earnings above the Poverty Guidelines. Seven industry groups appear in both Table 17 and Table 18, suggesting diversity in the quality of employment opportunities they offer. Again, differences between those who lived within and outside the state's MSAs were small. "Manufacturers of Meat Products" and "Public Safety and Order" were among the top industry groups of leavers with annual earnings above the Poverty Guidelines who resided outside of the state's MSAs, while the list for those who lived in an MSA included "Miscellaneous Business Services" and "Offices and Clinics of Medical Doctors." Table 18 Top Ten Major Industry Groups for 2001 Leavers with Annual Earnings Exceeding Federal Poverty Guidelines* Major Industry Group Percent of Total Employment Average Quarterly Earnings Hospitals 7% $4,376 Personnel Supply Services 6% $5,182 Eating & Drinking Establishments 5% $4,264 Offices & Clinics of Medical Doctors 4% $4,475 Nursing & Personal Care Facilities 3% $5,267 Department Stores 3% $4,150 Grocery Stores 3% $3,871 Executive & Legislative Combined** 3% $3,901 Meat Products 3% $5,672 Elementary and Secondary Schools 3% $4,064 * Based on 2,921 leavers with earnings in their first year after exit that exceeded the federal poverty guidelines. ** This industry group refers to government agencies. 22 Table 19 Relationship Between Average Quarterly Earnings and Employment of Leavers Lacking High School Diploma by Industry Group Major Industry Groups with 75 or More Employed Leavers Average Quarterly Earnings Leavers Lacking a High School Diploma Telephone Communication $4,998 13% Offices & Clinics of Medical Doctors $4,424 15% Hospitals $4,017 24% Health & Allied Services $3,447 18% Executive & Legislative Combined $3,412 24% Individual & Family Services $3,281 25% Administration of Public Health Programs $3,275 32% Colleges & Universities $3,238 25% Meat Products $2,908 48% Residential Care $2,791 30% Management & Public Relations $2,566 38% Elementary & Secondary Schools $2,523 22% Miscellaneous Business Services $2,480 30% Department Stores $2,464 30% Nursing & Personal Care Facilities $2,406 45% Laundry, Cleaning, & Garment Services $2,326 36% Home Health Care Services $2,309 28% Child Day Care Services $2,264 32% Gasoline Services Stations $2,206 46% Family Clothing Stores $2,170 32% Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores $2,165 33% Grocery Stores $2,102 42% Job Training & Related Services* $1,965 48% Services to Buildings $1,897 53% Personnel Supply Services $1,884 39% Hotels & Motels $1,836 50% Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores $1,683 34% Eating & Drinking Places $1,668 48% Variety Stores $1,632 50% * Includes community service employment and participation in work experience programs. Table 19 lists the major industrial groups in which 75 or more leavers were employed, with the average quarterly wage earned by the leavers working in the industry group and the percentage 23 of those leavers who had not graduated from high school. Overall, leavers lacking high school diplomas made up 42 percent of the 2001 leavers, but only 37 percent of the leavers who were employed in the fourth quarter after exit. While there were leavers who had not graduated from high school in all of the industry groups listed in Table 19, the association between education and earning potential is clear. Generally, as average quarterly earnings decreased, the percentage of non-graduates in an industry increased. Non-graduates made up the majority of workers in Services to Buildings, Hotels and Motels, and Variety Stores. Table 20 shows the number of 2001 leavers employed in each of the ten SIC industry divisions in the fourth quarter of their first year following exit. Included in this table are average quarterly earnings and the percentage of leavers with annual earnings that exceeded the Poverty Guidelines for their family size. This table summarizes information provided in Appendix B, in which all of the industries of employment are listed by major industrial group. Thirty-five percent of the employed 2001 leavers worked in Retail Trade the industry division with the second lowest average quarterly earnings. Among the industry divisions employing large numbers of leavers, average earnings were highest in Manufacturing. Unfortunately, manufacturing employment in Georgia declined throughout 2001 as a result of the economic downturn. Although it remained stable in mid-2002, Georgia has continued to lose manufacturing jobs since then.7 Table 20 Employment and Earnings in the Fourth Quarter After Exit by SIC Industrial Division: 2001 Leaver Cohort Industrial Division Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, and Sanitary Services Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Services Public Administration Number Employed 109 3 163 1,209 390 346 5,761 340 7,510 634 Average Quarterly Earnings $2,352 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 7% $5,217 33% $3,733 39% $3,822 30% $4,439 37% $3,666 32% $2,589 9% $4,861 46% $2,772 18% $2,881 30% 7 "Georgia Manufacturing Vital Signs," July/August 2003, Center for Economic Development, Georgia Institute of Technology at www.ced.gatech.edu. 24 Appendix A TANF Gross Income Ceiling and Federal Poverty Guidelines Family Size 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 TANF Gross Income Ceiling (Monthly) $435 $659 $784 $925 $1,060 $1,149 $1,243 $1,319 $1,389 $1,487 $1,591 Federal Poverty Guidelines (Annual) 1999 2000 2001 $8,240 $8,350 $8,590 $11,060 $11,250 $11,610 $13,656 $16,452 $19,260 $14,150 $17,050 $19,950 $14,630 $17,650 $20,670 $22,056 $22,850 $23,690 $24,853 $25,750 $29,710 $27,660 $28,650 $32,750 $30,468 $33,276 $31,550 $34, 450 $35,770 $38,790 $36,084 $37,350 $41,810 2002 $8,860 $11,940 $15,020 $18,100 $21,180 $24,260 $27,340 $30,420 $33,500 $36,580 $42,740 Note: The TANF Gross Income Ceiling is established by the Georgia legislature and is one of the factors used in determining income eligibility for TANF. The Federal Poverty Guidelines are set by the U. S. Department of Health and Human Services and used in determining eligibility for a variety of federal programs. 25 Appendix B Industries of Employment Industry Number Employed Average Quarterly Earnings Agriculture 013 Field Crops, Except Cash Grains 6 $1,241 016 Vegetables & Melons 23 $730 017 Fruits & Tree Nuts 7 $673 018 Horticultural Specialties 20 $2,051 019 General Farms, Primarily Crop 2 $1,179 024 Dairy Farms 1 $5,055 025 Poultry & Eggs 3 $2,601 072 Crop Services 18 $1,009 074 Veterinary Services 12 $2,092 076 Farm Labor & Management Services 1 $856 078 Landscape & Horticultural Services 15 $2,981 081 Timber Tracts 1 $7,750 All 109 $2,352 Mining 103 Lead & Zinc Ores 1 $3,797 142 Crushed & Broken Stone 1 $6,081 144 Sand & Gravel 1 $5,774 All 3 $5,217 Construction 152 Residential Building Construction 17 $3,090 153 Operative Builders 2 $4,898 154 Nonresidential Building Construction 15 $4,267 161 Highway & Street Construction 10 $4,939 162 Heavy Construction, Except Highway 11 $4,231 171 Plumbing, Heating, Air-conditioning 24 $3,884 172 Painting & Paper Hanging 7 $1,834 173 Electrical Work 29 $3,718 174 Masonry, Stonework, & Plastering 14 $1,961 175 Carpentry & Floor Work 5 $4,142 176 Roofing, Siding, & Sheet Metal Work 10 $3,999 177 Concrete Work 8 $4,399 179 Misc. Special Trade Contractors 11 $3,161 All 163 $3,733 Manufacturing & Processing 201 Meat Products 301 $2,908 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 0% 4% 0% 5% 0% 100% 0% 6% 25% 0% 0% 100% 7% 0% 0% 100% 33% 24% 50% 47% 40% 45% 38% 29% 52% 21% 20% 30% 38% 55% 39% 28% 26 Industry 202 Dairy Products 203 Preserved Fruits & Vegetables 204 Grain Mill Products 205 Bakery Products 206 Sugar & Confectionery Products 207 Fats & Oils 208 Beverages 209 Misc. Food & Kindred Products 221 Broadwoven Fabric Mills, Cotton 222 Broadwoven Fabric Mills, Manmade 223 Broadwoven Fabric Mills, Wool 224 Narrow Fabric Mills 225 Knitting Mills 226 Textile Finishing, Except Wool 227 Carpets & Rugs 228 Yarn & Thread Mills 229 Misc. Textile Goods 231 Men's & Boys Suits & Coats 232 Men's & Boys Furnishings 233 Women's & Misses Outerwear 234 Women's & Children's Undergarments 235 Hats, Caps, & Millinery 236 Girls & Children's Outerwear 238 Misc. Apparel & Accessories 239 Misc. Fabricated Textile Products 241 Logging 242 Sawmills & Planing Mills 243 Millwork, Plywood & Structural Members 244 Wood Containers 245 Wood Buildings & Mobile Homes 249 Misc. Wood Products 251 Household Furniture 253 Public Building & Related Furniture 254 Partitions & Fixtures 259 Misc. Furniture & Fixtures 267 Misc. Converted Paper Products 271 Newspapers 274 Misc. Publishing 275 Commercial Printing 278 Blankbooks & Bookbinding Number Employed 1 4 4 34 8 2 3 10 32 4 1 1 38 2 55 56 9 1 35 8 13 2 3 4 47 9 7 23 17 11 3 12 2 3 5 19 45 2 13 7 Average Quarterly Earnings $6,481 $4,819 $2,528 $3,687 $1,372 $6,333 $7,065 $4,206 $4,646 $2,738 $2,499 $260 $2,116 $1,691 $4,081 $4,732 $4,323 $3,375 $2,004 $3,124 $1,832 $2,164 $2,069 $3,186 $2,834 $4,832 $4,414 $3,775 $2,880 $2,758 $3,705 $2,634 $6,970 $2,761 $2,008 $4,532 $2,304 $4,074 $3,313 $2,943 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 0% 25% 25% 21% 0% 100% 67% 50% 44% 50% 0% 0% 11% 50% 45% 45% 67% 0% 6% 25% 8% 0% 0% 25% 21% 44% 71% 48% 18% 18% 33% 0% 100% 0% 0% 53% 7% 100% 46% 14% 27 Industry 279 Printing Trade Services 282 Plastics Materials & Synthetics 283 Drugs 284 Soap, Cleaners, & Toilet Goods 285 Paints & Allied Products 287 Agricultural Chemicals 289 Misc. Chemical Products 306 Fabricated Rubber Products 308 Misc. Plastics Products 316 Luggage 323 Products Of Purchased Glass 327 Concrete, Gypsum, & Plaster Products 329 Misc. Nonmetallic Mineral Products 332 Iron & Steel Foundries 335 Nonferrous Rolling & Drawing 341 Metal Cans & Shipping Containers 343 Plumbing & Heating, Except Electric 344 Fabricated Structural Metal Products 345 Screw Machine Products, Bolts, Etc. 346 Metal Forgings & Stampings 347 Metal Services 348 Ordnance & Accessories 349 Misc. Fabricated Metal Products 351 Engines & Turbines 352 Farm & Garden Machinery 353 Construction & Related Machinery 355 Special Industry Machinery 356 General Industrial Machinery 357 Computer & Office Equipment 358 Refrigeration & Service Machinery 359 Industrial Machinery 361 Electric Distribution Equipment 362 Electrical Industrial Apparatus 363 Household Appliances 364 Electric Lighting & Wiring Equipment 365 Household Audio & Video Equipment 367 Electronic Components & Accessories 369 Misc. Electrical Equipment & Supplies 371 Motor Vehicles & Equipment 372 Aircraft & Parts Number Employed 2 2 2 8 1 5 3 6 40 3 3 6 4 4 10 6 3 20 1 6 2 1 21 9 25 2 1 1 2 18 3 1 4 52 5 1 13 5 22 8 Average Quarterly Earnings $3,110 $7,968 $2,858 $2,539 $5,447 $1,984 $2,583 $5,787 $3,329 $1,808 $4,989 $5,676 $5,820 $7,068 $4,148 $5,191 $2,950 $2,611 $1,289 $4,166 $4,128 $5,059 $3,148 $2,710 $2,039 $5,180 $9,166 $3,145 $6,035 $3,824 $7,020 $2,855 $3,285 $2,412 $4,300 $6,301 $3,064 $4,776 $4,898 $5,304 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 50% 100% 0% 13% 0% 0% 33% 50% 33% 0% 100% 50% 25% 100% 60% 83% 33% 20% 0% 67% 50% 0% 24% 11% 12% 100% 100% 100% 0% 44% 67% 0% 25% 0% 80% 100% 46% 80% 50% 88% 28 Industry 373 Ship & Boat Building & Repairing Number Employed 11 Average Quarterly Earnings $2,880 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 18% 379 Misc. Transportation Equipment 4 $7,130 50% 384 Medical Instruments & Supplies 1 $5,560 0% 386 Photographic Equipment & Supplies 1 $1,438 0% 393 Musical Instruments 1 $1,495 0% 394 Toys & Sporting Goods 1 $3,637 0% 395 Pens, Pencils, Office, & Art Supplies 3 $3,229 33% All 1209 $3,822 30% Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, and Sanitary Services 411 Local & Suburban Transportation 67 $3,190 25% 412 Taxicabs 4 $3,142 0% 413 Intercity & Rural Bus Transportation 1 $2,839 0% 414 Bus Charter Service 1 $951 0% 415 School Buses 16 $2,535 25% 421 Trucking & Courier Services, Ex. Air 68 $3,659 31% 422 Public Warehousing & Storage 16 $4,237 50% 441 Deep Sea Foreign Trans. Of Freight 1 $15,922 100% 449 Water Transportation Services 1 $1,122 0% 451 Air Transportation, Scheduled 41 $3,244 29% 452 Air Transportation, Nonscheduled 1 $7,643 100% 458 Airports, Flying Fields, & Services 16 $3,726 25% 461 Pipelines, Except Natural Gas 1 $10,626 100% 472 Passenger Transportation Arrangement 11 $2,420 27% 473 Freight Transportation Arrangement 7 $5,067 57% 478 Misc. Transportation Services 4 $1,071 0% 481 Telephone Communication 99 $4,998 53% 483 Radio & Television Broadcasting 7 $2,659 14% 484 Cable & Other Pay TV Services 16 $4,326 56% 489 Communication Services 2 $3,423 50% 491 Electric Services 3 $5,005 67% 492 Gas Production & Distribution 1 $5,885 100% 495 Sanitary Services 6 $4,400 50% All 390 $4,439 37% Wholesale Trade 501 Motor Vehicles, Parts, & Supplies 17 $3,079 35% 502 Furniture & Homefurnishings 9 $4,569 44% 503 Lumber & Construction Materials 10 $3,693 40% 504 Professional & Commercial Equipment 29 $4,562 55% 505 Metals & Minerals, Except Petroleum 3 $6,372 67% 506 Electrical Goods 17 $3,692 47% 29 Industry Number Employed 507 Hardware, Plumbing & Heating Equip. 6 508 Machinery, Equipment, & Supplies 40 509 Misc. Durable Goods 8 511 Paper & Paper Products 13 512 Drugs, Proprietaries, & Sundries 7 513 Apparel, Piece Goods, & Notions 26 514 Groceries & Related Products 38 515 Farm-product Raw Materials 23 516 Chemicals & Allied Products 11 517 Petroleum & Petroleum Products 61 518 Beer, Wine, & Distilled Beverages 3 519 Misc. Nondurable Goods 25 All 346 Retail Trade 521 Lumber & Other Building Materials 55 523 Paint, Glass, & Wallpaper Stores 1 525 Hardware Stores 4 526 Retail Nurseries & Garden Stores 6 527 Mobile Home Dealers 4 531 Department Stores 649 533 Variety Stores 133 539 Misc. General Merchandise Stores 93 541 Grocery Stores 733 542 Meat & Fish Markets 10 543 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 4 546 Retail Bakeries 20 549 Misc. Food Stores 2 551 New & Used Car Dealers 34 552 Used Car Dealers 6 553 Auto & Home Supply Stores 27 554 Gasoline Service Stations 308 555 Boat Dealers 2 556 Recreational Vehicle Dealers 2 561 Men's & Boys Clothing Stores 6 562 Women's Clothing Stores 57 563 Women's Accessory & Specialty Stores 8 564 Children's & Infants Wear Stores 9 565 Family Clothing Stores 116 566 Shoe Stores 26 569 Misc. Apparel & Accessory Stores 6 Average Quarterly Earnings $5,956 $4,018 $3,297 $3,712 $3,706 $2,412 $3,359 $1,835 $2,149 $2,534 $3,422 $3,623 $3,666 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 67% 35% 50% 31% 57% 8% 32% 4% 0% 21% 67% 36% 32% $3,318 $1,330 $2,765 $2,658 $3,722 $2,464 $1,632 $1,683 $2,102 $1,235 $1,456 $1,672 $3,251 $4,485 $5,523 $3,448 $2,206 $5,999 $3,094 $2,575 $2,082 $1,494 $1,464 $2,170 $2,283 $2,182 36% 0% 25% 0% 50% 15% 2% 5% 12% 0% 0% 5% 50% 56% 67% 44% 11% 50% 0% 0% 12% 13% 11% 16% 12% 17% 30 Industry Number Employed Average Quarterly Earnings 571 Furniture & Homefurnishings Stores 36 $2,847 572 Household Appliance Stores 2 $3,112 573 Radio, Television, & Computer Stores 24 $3,378 581 Eating & Drinking Places 3086 $1,668 591 Drug Stores & Proprietary Stores 74 $2,188 593 Used Merchandise Stores 30 $2,379 594 Misc. Shopping Goods Stores 95 $2,165 596 Nonstore Retailers 40 $1,965 598 Fuel Dealers 3 $2,950 599 Retail Stores 50 $2,245 All 5,761 $2,589 Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 602 Commercial Banks 42 $3,861 603 Savings Institutions 3 $2,540 606 Credit Unions 5 $4,211 609 Functions Closely Related To Banking 13 $3,732 611 Federal & Fed.-sponsored Credit 3 $6,980 614 Personal Credit Institutions 26 $3,613 615 Business Credit Institutions 14 $5,943 616 Mortgage Bankers & Brokers 33 $4,497 621 Security Brokers & Dealers 1 $21,096 631 Life Insurance 9 $6,138 632 Medical Service & Health Insurance 24 $4,752 633 Fire, Marine, & Casualty Insurance 15 $4,701 636 Title Insurance 1 $7,589 637 Pension, Health, & Welfare Funds 3 $783 641 Insurance Agents, Brokers, & Service 50 $4,108 651 Real Estate Operators & Lessors 38 $4,354 653 Real Estate Agents & Managers 51 $3,835 654 Title Abstract Offices 1 $306 655 Subdividers & Developers 3 $2,785 673 Trusts 1 $2,764 679 Misc. Investing 4 $3,502 All 340 $4,861 Services 701 Hotels & Motels 532 $1,836 703 Camps & Recreational Vehicle Parks 1 $1,454 721 Laundry, Cleaning, & Garment Services 116 $2,326 722 Photographic Studios, Portrait 16 $1,793 723 Beauty Shops 54 $2,603 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 19% 50% 33% 5% 15% 10% 13% 8% 33% 10% 9% 50% 33% 40% 54% 67% 31% 43% 61% 100% 56% 75% 53% 100% 0% 46% 39% 35% 0% 0% 100% 25% 46% 8% 0% 9% 0% 15% 31 Industry 724 Barber Shops 726 Funeral Service & Crematories 729 Misc. Personal Services 731 Advertising 732 Credit Reporting & Collection 733 Mailing, Reproduction, Stenographic 734 Services to Buildings 735 Misc. Equipment Rental & Leasing 736 Personnel Supply Services 737 Computer & Data Processing Services 738 Misc. Business Services 751 Automotive Rentals, No Drivers 752 Automobile Parking 753 Automotive Repair Shops 754 Automotive Services, Except Repair 762 Electrical Repair Shops 764 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 769 Misc. Repair Shops 783 Motion Picture Theaters 784 Video Tape Rental 792 Producers, Orchestras, Entertainers 793 Bowling Centers 794 Commercial Sports 799 Misc. Amusement, Recreation Services 801 Offices & clinics of medical doctors 802 Offices & Clinics Of Dentists 803 Offices Of Osteopathic Physicians 804 Offices Of Other Health Practitioners 805 Nursing & Personal Care Facilities 806 Hospitals 807 Medical & Dental Laboratories 808 Home Health Care Services 809 Health & Allied Services 811 Legal Services 821 Elementary & Secondary Schools 822 Colleges & Universities 823 Libraries 824 Vocational Schools 829 Schools & Educational Services 832 Individual & Family Services Number Employed 1 3 67 8 62 21 290 15 1558 74 359 27 18 14 27 3 1 5 11 32 2 5 1 50 217 34 1 28 928 535 14 144 118 39 516 130 3 26 9 180 Average Quarterly Earnings $4,228 $1,783 $1,968 $2,207 $4,707 $3,848 $1,897 $4,583 $1,884 $3,214 $2,480 $2,705 $3,221 $4,121 $2,637 $3,656 $3,068 $2,051 $1,715 $2,360 $750 $2,465 $1,151 $1,763 $4,424 $4,183 $1,576 $3,746 $2,406 $4,017 $4,443 $2,309 $3,447 $4,039 $2,523 $3,238 $3,331 $2,085 $4,090 $3,281 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 0% 0% 13% 13% 60% 48% 7% 40% 11% 38% 18% 19% 17% 21% 22% 33% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 14% 51% 41% 0% 46% 11% 40% 50% 13% 31% 49% 15% 30% 33% 15% 44% 32% 32 Industry Number Employed 833 Job Training & Related Services 146 835 Child Day Care Services 538 836 Residential Care 157 839 Social Services 43 841 Museums & Art Galleries 2 842 Botanical & Zoological Gardens 6 861 Business Associations 3 864 Civic & Social Associations 42 865 Political Organizations 1 866 Religious Organizations 4 871 Engineering & Architectural Services 8 872 Accounting, Auditing, & Bookkeeping 37 873 Research & Testing Services 12 874 Management & Public Relations 175 881 Private Households 36 899 Services 5 All 7510 Public Administration 911 Executive Offices 1 913 Executive & Legislative Combined 284 919 General Government 40 921 Courts 5 922 Public Order & Safety 59 931 Finance, Taxation, & Monetary Policy 48 941 Admin. Of Educational Programs 14 943 Admin. Of Public Health Programs 94 944 Admin. Of Social & Manpower Programs 36 951 Environmental Quality 14 953 Housing & Urban Development 17 962 Regulation, Admin. Of Transportation 11 964 Regulation Of Agricultural Marketing 2 965 Regulation Misc. Commercial Sectors 1 971 National Security 8 All 634 999 Nonclassifiable Establishments 132 Average Quarterly Earnings $1,965 $2,264 $2,791 $3,137 $2,482 $1,717 $2,603 $2,291 $2,778 $2,461 $5,076 $3,230 $2,328 $2,566 $2,763 $1,000 $2,772 Annual Earnings Above Poverty Guidelines 14% 10% 18% 28% 0% 17% 0% 21% 0% 0% 75% 43% 17% 17% 17% 0% 18% $59 $3,412 $3,620 $3,995 $4,743 $1,782 $2,281 $3,275 $888 $3,069 $2,576 $3,881 $5,441 $1,136 $3,051 $2,881 $2,921 0% 31% 38% 60% 68% 4% 14% 32% 0% 14% 29% 36% 50% 0% 13% 30% 20% 33