Employment, Earnings, and Recidivism among G e o a y sTANF Leavers: Findings from the TANF Follow-Up System Acknowledgments This report was prepared by Nancy Bross under contract t o the Georgia Department of Human Resources. She would like t o thank the staff of the Evaluation and Reporting Section, Division of Family and Children Services, for their continuing support of the development and maintenance of the TANF Follow-Up System and for their assistance in the preparation of this report. Contents Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Overview of TANF Leavers and Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Outcomes in the First Year Following Exit: Understanding the Relationship between Employment and Recidivism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Longer Term Outcomes and Labor Force Attachment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Leavers' Families and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 industries Employing TANF Leavers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Appendix A: TANF income Ceiling and Federal Poverty Guidelines by Number in Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-i Appendix B: Industry of Employment in 12thQuarter Following Exit for 1997Leavers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-ii Executive Summary The TANF Follow-Up System tracks the employment, earnings, and recidivism (i.e. return t o TANF) of adults leaving TANF. It uses administrative data from the Department of Human Resources' management information system for TANF and the Georgia Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance (UI) wage record files. This report contains information on leavers and their outcomes from January 1997 through the end of 2000. Because three full years of follow-up data are available for those who left TANF in 1997, particular attention is paid t o their experiences. Changing Population of TANF Leavers Over the period from 1997 through 2000, the population of TANF leavers changed. More recent leavers were, on average, younger and had both more and younger children. The percentage of leavers age 18 t o 24 increased from 28 t o 38 percent. In 1997, only 16 percent of leavers had a child under the age of 2. By 2000, this percentage was 48 percent. More recent TANF leavers were also more likely t o be black and less likely t o reside in suburban counties than the earliest leavers. About 4 0 percent of TANF leavers had not graduated from high school. Quarterly Employment, Earnings, and Recidivism Quarterly employment rates have remained highly consistent over time and across exit cohorts. Slightly higher in the first year following exit, these rates stabilize at about 56 t o 59 percent. Average quarterly earnings among those who are employed have risen steadily across post-exit quarters. That is, the longer it has been since a group of leavers left TANF, the greater their average quarterly earnings. On the other hand, across the same post-exit quarter, more recent leavers have not earned any more than earlier leavers, suggesting that leaverrs earnings are not keeping up with inflation. Recidivism peaks in the third or fourth quarter following exit from TANF and then declines steadily over time. However, recidivism rates tend t o be somewhat higher among more recent leavers. Understanding Employment and Recidivism About 76 percent of all leavers were employed at some time during their first year following exit from TANF, while about 22% returned t o TANF during that same year. Most of those who returned t o TANF came from among those who were also employed during the year. The reason: low earnings. Sixty-four percent of employed leavers had average monthly earnings in their quarters of employment in the first year following exit that were below the TANF gross income ceiling for their family size. a Those who returned t o TANF were younger, had more and younger children, were more likely t o be black, and were less likely t o live in suburban counties. These characteristics parallel the changes in the leaver population, suggesting that these changes account for increased recidivism in recent years. Labor Force Attachment a Outcomes in the second and third years following exit were generally consistent with those seen in the first year following exit. However, average earnings increased and recidivism decreased. a Among the 1997 leavers, 50 percent had earnings in 8 or more quarters over a 3- year period, and 24 percent had earnings in all 12 quarters. a The effect of number of quarters of employment on total earnings was multiplicative because those who worked more quarters also had substantially higher earnings in their quarters of employment. For example, those who had earnings in all 12 quarters earned about 4 times as much over a 3-year period as those who had earnings in 6 of the 12 quarters. a From quarter t o quarter, those who were employed tended to continue t o be employed. However, level of earnings had a significant effect on the probability of continued employment. That is, those who earned more were more likely t o continue working. With earnings of about $3,000 in a quarter, the probability of employment in the following quarter reached 95 percent. Leavers' Families and Poverty a The percentage of leavers with annual earnings above the federal poverty guidelines ranged from 15 t o 18 percent in the first year following exit and rose t o 2 0 t o 24 percent in the second year following exit. a Earnings above the poverty guidelines were strongly associated with family size. That is, the percentage of leavers with earnings above the poverty guidelines decreased rapidly as family size increased. a Among the 1997 leavers employed during their third year following exit, 53 percent had average monthly earnings that exceeded the TANF gross income ceiling, 29 percent had earnings above the poverty guidelines, and 17 percent had earnings above 130 percent of the poverty guidelines - the maximum income level at which families may retain eligibility for Food Stamps. a Among 1997 leavers with fewer than 7 family members, there was a strong relationship between number of quarters worked over a 3-year period and the probability of earnings in the third year following exit that exceeded the poverty guidelines. For example, the probability of exceeding the poverty guidelines was 55 percent for those who had fewer than 4 family members and who had earnings in all 12 quarters. However, for those with larger families, earning enough t o exceed the poverty guidelines was essentially out of reach, regardless of their level of labor force attachment. Earning above the poverty guidelines were not distributed evenly across types of counties. In the third year following exit, 24 percent of the employed leavers from rural counties had earnings above the poverty guidelines, compared with 28 percent of urban leavers and 36 percent of suburban leavers. The value of leavers' estimated earned income tax credits increased the average annual incomes of leavers employed in the third year following exit from $9,885 t o $11,663 and increased the percentage with incomes greater than the poverty guidelines for their family size to 40 percent. However, we do not know t o what extent Georgia's TANF leavers are taking advantage of this tax credit. Industries of Employment Fifty-two percent of the 1997 leavers employed in the twelfth quarter after exit were employed in just ten industries. These industries, which were topped by eating and drinking establishments, personnel supply services (i.e. businesses providing temporary and contract workers), and nursing and personal care facilities, appear t o be characterized by low wages. Among the 1997 leavers with annual earnings below the poverty guidelines, 85 percent were employed by services or businesses engaged in wholesale and retail trade, compared t o 6 4 percent of those with annual earnings above the poverty level. Those with earnings above the poverty guidelines were more likely t o work in transportation and public utilities; finance, insurance and real estate; and, especially, manufacturing than those with annual earnings below the poverty level. Introduction Georgia began implementation of Temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF) on January 1, 1997. With TANF came more stringent work requirements for welfare recipients, a lifetime limit on receipt of welfare payments, and an end t o the concept of entitlement. The Georgia Department of Human Resources (DHR) established the TANF Follow-Up System t o track the employment, earnings, and recidivism of adults leaving TANF. This report summarizes the post-TANF outcomes of adults who left TANF during the period from 1997 through 2000. Methodology The TANF Follow-Up System is a data base containing information on adult recipients from closed TANF cases. It matches DHR data on TANF recipients to quarterly earnings data from the Georgia Department of Labor. Identifying Adult Leavers. The event that triggers inclusion in follow-up is case closure. In fact, however, because families may go on and off TANF as their circumstances change or they go in and out of compliance with program requirements, it is not always clear when a case is truly "closed." Therefore, for purposes of follow-up, a case is considered closed when no benefit is received in t w o successive months. Recipients are added t o the follow-up system the first time they meet the criterion for inclusion during a calendar year. If they receive additional benefits at a later date, they are considered recidivists. However, they only appear once in the follow-up file for that year. Only those adults who were actually TANF recipients (i.e. included in the TANF grant) are addressed in this report. Excluded are adults who received a benefit on behalf of a dependent child but who did not, themselves, receive a benefit under TANF. Also excluded are other adult household members not included in the TANF grant. Data. All of the data in the TANF Follow-Up System come from administrative data systems. The advantages of such data are low cost and continuity over time. The disadvantage is that neither what is collected nor how it is organized and maintained are likely t o be ideal for research purposes. Data on recipients, households, and status at case closure for 1997 come from DHR's PARIS system. During 1998, DHR made a gradual transition t o SUCCESS, its new management information system. Consequently, data for 1998 come from both systems. SUCCESS expanded the scope of data available for future research and evaluation. However, data for 1997 and 1998 are limited t o information common t o both systems. Data on employment and earnings come from the Unemployment Insurance (UI) wage record. This record is a report of quarterly earnings submitted by all employers in the state whose workers are covered under the UI system. UI earnings data provide a low-cost way of tracking employment over time. However, they have t w o important limitations. First, UI earnings data are only available for those jobs covered under the Unemployment Insurance system. Notable exclusions are federal jobs and self-employment, including informal work arrangements. For example, if a TANF leaver supplements her income by providing occasional childcare t o a neighbor, the resulting earnings are unlikely t o be reported t o the UI system. In addition, the earnings of Georgians who work in neighboring states are not included in Georgia's UI data base. Therefore, UI data consistently underestimate employment and earnings (especially in interstate labor markets) and the figures contained in this report reflect minimum levels of employment and earnings among former TANF recipients. Second, because of the time required for employer reporting and State processing of UI earnings data, complete data on earnings for any quarter are not available until three quarters later. Therefore, in this report, data on employment in the exit quarter are available for all adult recipients who left TANF during 1997 though 2000. However, postexit earnings data are only available through the last quarter of 2000. Leavers are considered t o have been employed in a particular quarter if they had reported earnings for that quarter. However, no information is available on wage levels, number of hours worked, or whether employment was continuous. Data on recidivism come from PARIS and SUCCESS files of active TANF recipients. This report includes data on recidivism through June 2001. However, the process of capturing data on recidivism did not begin until October, 1997. Consequently, recidivism data for the earliest leavers are not complete. In general, data are organized by quarterly exit cohorts. Fifteen quarters of follow-up data are available for the first exit cohort (January through March, 19971, but no follow-up data are available yet for the last (October through December, 2000). Overview of TANF Leavers and Outcomes Leaver Characteristics. From 1997 through 1999, the number of Georgia households receiving TANF declined rapidly, as monthly counts of closed cases exceeded the number of new cases being opened. (See Figure 1.) This pattern reflected the combined effects of the provisions of welfare reform and a strong economy. That is, as TANF policy promoted work over dependency, the economy provided opportunities for employment. However, since 2000, the number of households coming into TANF has essentially balanced the number of households leaving it, and monthly case counts have leveled off. Figure 1 Active TANF Cases: 1997 to 2000 0 I JAN 1997 JAN 1998 JAN 1999 JAN 20W JAN 2W1 JUL 1997 JUL 1998 JUL 1999 JULZWO JUL2001 Over the period from 1997 through 2000, the population of adults leaving TANF changed. (See Table 1.) Throughout the period, over 95 percent of the leavers were women, and almost all of them were the parents or step parents of the dependent children in their assistance units. However, over time average leaver age decreased. The percentage of leavers age 1 8 Po 2 4 increased from 28 percent t o 38 percent. As one would Figure 2 expect, there is a strong relationship between the parent's age and the age of 50% the youngest child in the household. Age of Youngest Child Therefore, as the average age of adult 4090 leavers decreased, the average age of their youngest child also decreased. In 1997, only 1 6 percent of the leavers had a child 30% under the age of 2; but in 2000, 43 percent of leavers had a child under the age of 2. 20% (See Figure 2.) Clearly, availability of 11997 adequate childcare for very young children 10% has become an increasingly important factor Ursss O 1999 in the employability of parents who leave TANF. Under2 2to5 6 to 12 13to 18 02~0 During the period from 1997 through 2000, there was also a shift in the racial and geographic distribution of leavers. The percentage of leavers residing in suburban counties decreased as the percentage living in urban counties increased. A t the same time, the proportion of leavers who were black increased from about two-thirds t o three-quarters of all leavers. About 4 0 percent of leavers in 1999 and 2 0 0 0 did not have high school diplomas. Table 1 Characteristics of Adult TANF Leavers by Year Characteristic 1997 1998 1999 2000 Number of Leavers 42,094 42,963 38,244 32,761 Women 96.1% 96.5% 95.4% 96.1 % Average Age 30.3 29.6 29.3 28.7 White Black Other Minority 30.6% 67.4% 2.0% 25.0% 73.3% 1.7% 22.7% 75.6% 1.6% 23.8% 75.5% .7% Urban Suburban Rural 32.7% 28.9% 38.5% 36.1 % 26.4% 37.5% 38.1 O h 23.4% 38.5% 38.8% 21.2% 40.0% Average Number of Dependent Children 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 Average Age of Youngest Child High School Graduates 5.8 5.4 4.4 4.0 --- --- 61.2% 59.6% Outcomes by Post-Exit Quarter. Tables 2 through 4 present outcomes by exit cohort and post-exit quarter. An exit cohort is a group of individuals who left TANF during the same time period. Post-exit quarters are consecutively numbered quarters following exit from TANF. They allow comparability of outcomes across exit cohorts because they refer t o a uniform length of time since the quarter in which the cohorts left. Employment. In spite of changes in the leaver population, employment rates among adult leavers - both in their exit quarters and in the quarters that follow - have proven t o be highly consistent over time. Table 2 shows employment rates, by quarterly exit cohorts, over 15 quarters. During this period, 58 t o 65 percent of all leavers were employed during their exit quarter - the quarter in which they left TANF. In subsequent quarters, employment rates declined slightly, leveling off in the range of 56 to 59 percent. Employment rates appear t o be unaffected by seasonal variation. Earnings. Average earnings among those who were employed are shown in Table 3. Within a post-exit quarter, average earnings were generally consistent across exit cohorts. However, within an exit cohort, earnings increased steadily as length of time since exit increased. For example, among those who left TANF during January through March of 1997, average earnings increased by more than $1,200 over 15 post-exit quarters. Recidivism. Recidivism rates (Table 4) are the other side of employment, as those who cannot sustain themselves and their families through employment return t o welfare dependency. For those who left TANF during 1997 through 1999, recidivism rates were lowest in the first post-exit quarter, peaked in the third or fourth quarters following exit, and then gradually declined over time. Unlike employment and earnings, recidivism was not consistent across cohorts within post-exit quarters. Rather, recidivism rates were consistently higher in the more recent exit cohorts. Key Questions. Changes in the leaver population and patterns of employment, earnings, and recidivism raise the following questions: rn Why has recidivism increased even as employment rates have remained essentially the same? Can this pattern be explained by changes in the population of TANF leavers? rn Increasing earnings over time among those who are employed suggest that leavers are making significant economic progress. Is this progress typical of employed TANF leavers, or is it concentrated in a subgroup of the population? rn To what extent have employment and earnings moved the families of TANF leavers out of poverty and on the path t o self-sufficiency? a What types of work are leavers doing? How do the industries of employment of the most successful leavers compare t o those of leavers who have been less successful? These questions are explored in the balance of this report. Table 2 Employment Rates by Exit Cohort and Post-Exit Quarter Exit Cohort Jan - Mar Employment Rates No. of Adult Post-Exit Quarter Leavers Exit ' 1st Q~~~~~~ 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Il t h 12th 13th 14th 15th 8939 63% 63% 59% 58% 57% 59% 57% 58% 57% 57% 57% 56% 57% 57% 56% 56% Apr - Jun 12918 65% 62% 60% 58% 60% 59% 58% 57% 58% 57% 58% 57% 58% 57% 56% Jul - Sep '97 9387 65% 63% 60% 60% 59% 59% 59% 58% 57% 57% 58% 58% 57% 56% Oct - Dec 10850 65% 62% 61% 60% 60% 58% 59% 58% 58% 58% 58% 57% 57% Jan - Mar 11231 61% 64% 60% 59% 57% 58% 58% 57% 58% 58% 57% 56% Apr - Jun 11824 - - J u l - Sep '98 10623 63% 62% 60% 57% 58% 57% 57% 57% 58% 56% 56% - -- - - 64% 63% 58% 59% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 56% Oct - Dec 9285 Jan - Mar '99 11678 65% 61% 60% 58% 58% 57% 58% 57% 56% 61% 63% 59% 59% 58% 59% 57% 56% Apr - Jun '99 10485 63% 62% 59% 58% 58% 57% 56% J u l - Sep '99 Oct - Dec '99 8390 64% 64% 61% 60% 58% 58% - 7691 65% 64% 61% 59% 57% Jan - Mar '00 9059 61% 63% 59% 57% -- Apr - Jun '00 8415 Jul - Sep '00 7699 Oct - Dec '00 7588 J 64% - 62% - 59% ----------- 61% Table 3 Average Earnings among Employed Leavers by Post-Exit Quarter Exit Cohort Jan-Marl97 Apr - Jun '97 Jul - Sep '97 Oct- Dec'97 Jan - Mar '98 Apr- Jun'98 Jul-Sep'98 Oct - Dec'98 Jan - Mar '99 Apr - Jun '99 Jul- Sep '99 0ct - Dec '99 Jan - Mar '00 Apr - Jun '00 Jul - Sep '00 Post-Exit Quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 2196 2277 2552 2400 2619 2734 3010 2733 2930 3011 2206 2466 2288 2514 2610 2891 2603 2836 2935 3104 2325 2169 2385 2484 2726 2525 2709 2853 2978 2875 2092 2306 2401 2748 2436 2660 2733 2919 2839 2945 2185 2294 2562 2327 2502 2625 2844 2736 2844 2919 2155 2416 2177 2370 2485 2654 2566 2659 2744 2915 2397 2185 2352 2447 2629 2555 2672 2759 2946 2074 2339 2371 2584 2497 2620 2701 2838 2184 2319 2518 2450 2531 2597 2763 2166 2371 2319 2454 2531 2677 2356 2273 2435 2540 2727 2149 2351 2421 2641 2182 2317 2457 2191 2375 2395 Il t h 12th 13th 14th 15th 3 3252 3144 3249 3289 3451 3022 3142 3189 3374 3009 3084 3265 3025 3165 31 19 Table 4 Recidivism Rates by Exit Cohort and Post-Exit Quarter Exit Cohort Post-Exit Quarter 1 2nd 3"' 4"' 5" 6" 7" 8'h gth 10" 11" 12" 13h 14th 15th 16th 17th J a n - M a r l 9 7 NA NA 14.1%13.2%12.3%11.9%12.1%10.0% 8.8% 8.5% 8.3% 7.3%6.5%6.4%6.5%6.0%5.7% Apr - Jun '97 NA 12.5% 13.7% 13.0% 12.4% 12.8% 11.4% 10.3% 9.5% 9.1% 8.7% 7.9% 8.1% 7.9% 7.3% 6.7% Jul - Sep '97 5.3% 11.7% 14.2% 14.6% 15.8% 14.3% 12.7% 11.6% 11.2% 10.2% 9.3% 9.2% 9.1 % 8.6% 8.0% Oct - Dec '97 6.0% 10.7% 12.2% 14.2% 13.2% 12.4% 11.4% 11.1% 10.2% 9.7% 9.7% 9.6% 9.0% 8.8% Jan - Mar '98 3.0% 9.9% 13.8% 13.5% 12.7% 12.1% 11.7% 11-0% 10.1% 10.1% 9.9% 9.5% 9.5% Apr - Jun '98 Jul - Sep '98 5.7% 14.3% 15.4% 15.0% 14.5% 14.3% 13.4% 12.5% 12.4% 12.3% 11.4% 10.7% 7.4% 14.2% 15.0% 14.6% 14.6% 14.3% 13.8% 13.6% 13.4% 12.5% 11.9% Oct - Dec '98 10.8% 15.0% 16.6% 16.6% 15.5% 14.3% 14.8% 14.4% 13.6% 13.1% Jan - Mar '99 8.4% 14.4% 16.5% 16.0% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.1% 13.9% Apr - Jun '99 9.6% 15.7% 16.6% 16.0% 16.1% 16.7% 15.9% 15.3% Jul - Sep '99 9.4% 14.3% 16.0% 17.1% 17.4% 16.3% 15.9% Oct - Dec '99 8.1% 13.5% 16.8% 17.2% 17.3% 16.2% Jan - Mar '00 8.7% 16.5% 19.3% 19.0% 18.3% - 3 _ _ - - - - - - - Apr - Jun '00 10.3% 17.2% 18.5% 18.8% Jul - Sep '00 9.3% 15.2% 17.8% 3 c t - Dec '00 7.8% 14.3% NA: Data not available. Outcomes i n the First Year Following Exit: Understanding the Relationship between Employment and Recidivism Outcomes in the First Year Following Exit. Table 5 summarizes outcomes in the first year following exit for leavers from 1997 through 1999. While outcome for the three groups are very similar, both employment and recidivism increased in the more recent years. However, the percentage of leavers who were employed in all four quarters of the year following exit declined. Table 5 Outcomes in the First Year Following Exit Outcome Employed at Exit Employed in at Least One Quarter Ave. Quarters Employed (All) Ave. Quarters Employed (Employed Only) Employed in All Quarters Ave. Earnings (All) Ave. Earnings (Employed Only) Returned t o TANF Ave. Months on TANF (Returned Only) 1997 65% 75% 2.4 3.2 43% $5,678 $7,554 20% 5.1 1998 63% 76% 2.4 3.1 41 % $5,535 $7,293 22% 5.2 1999 63% 77% 2.4 3.1 40% $5,666 $7,336 24% 5.4 Relationship between Employment and Recidivism. While one might expect that those who returned t o TANF would largely come from among those who were not employed, that was not the case. Table 6 shows the distribution of leavers along t w o dimensions: whether they were employed during the first year following exit and whether they returned t o TANF during that year. Approximately 20 percent of the leavers did not appear in either the State's U1 records or the TANF rolls during the year following exit. These adults may have married and stayed home with their children, depended on family members, moved out of Georgia, received disability payments, worked in a neighboring state, or held a job that was not covered by unemployment insurance. A majority of the leavers (about 59 percent) were employed and did not return to TANF. Only 4 percent of the leavers returned t o TANF without evidence of employment. The remaining 16 t o 19 percent of leavers worked but were unable t o remain off TANF. We can get a better understanding of the relationship between employment and recidivism by focusing on those leavers who were employed and examining the differences between those did and did not return to TANF. Because of the consistency of outcomes across years, the analysis that follows is based only on those who left in 1999 - the most recent year for which a full year of follow-up data is available. Given the changes in the leaver population, their experiences should provide the best indicator of what we can expect t o see in future leaver cohorts. Table 6 Employment and Return t o TANF in the First Year Following Exit EmploymentIReturn Group 1997* 1998 Employed, Did Not Return 60% 59% Employed and Returned 16% 17% Not Employed, but Returned 4% 4% Neither Employed nor Returned 20% 20% * Figures for 1997 are based on leavers from July through December. 1999 58% 19% 4% 18% Three-quarters of the 1999 leavers were employed in at least one quarter of the year, Figure 3 and about 40 percent had earnings in all Earnings in the First Year Following Exit four quarters. Among those who worked, average annual reported earnings were 517,500 about $7,300. The percentile distribution SIS.UX of earnings is shown in Figure 3. Fifty percent of those who were employed in the first year following exit earned less than $6,000, while 20 percent earned $12,000 g s12.m !,3- s10,m ~7.500 or more. Those who returned t o TANF t5.m received benefits for an average of five months. t2m so 51h li%h(h25m36(h55&56m7!385m95(h There was a strong relationship between number of quarters worked and average Percentile earnings in those quarters. That is, those who worked more quarters not only earned more over the course of the year, but they also earned more per quarter worked. Consequently, annual earnings were much higher among the 52 percent of employed 1999 leavers who had earnings in all four quarters. (See Figure 4.) Table 7 summarizes outcomes by number of quarters of employment. These outcomes help clarify the relationship between employment and recidivism. First, 4 8 percent of -Fiaure 4 Year Earnings by Employed those who worked did not have earnings in all four quarters. It appears, therefore, that they may have been eligible t o receive TANF benefits during one or more quarters ~10.0~0, of the first year following exit. Second, aC1 .- .-& S8m . W : s,m. >. $ 0 S.W. S q: s2.L2.ooo. even during quarters of employment, 64 percent of the leavers had average monthly earnings below the TANF gross income ceiling.' (See Appendix A for a listing of TANF gross income ceiling amounts by family size.) Even among those who had earnings in all four quarters, 47 percent had SO 1 2 3 4 average monthly earnings below the TANF gross income ceiling. Among those who had Number d ~uartm~mployed earnings in fewer than four quarters, only 17 percent had average monthly earnings above the gross income ceiling during the quarters in which they had reported earnings. While some leavers may have had additional sources of income, the majority of leavers did not earn enough in UI-covered employment t o lose income eligibility for TANF benefits. Table 7 Outcomes of 1999 Leavers Employed in the First Year Following Exit by Number of Quarters Employed Outcome Number of Quarters Employed 1 2 3 4 Percentage of Employed Leavers 13% 15% 20% 52% Average Monthly Earnings in Quarters of Employment $328 $439 $595 $863 Average Monthly Earnings Exceeded TANF Gross Income Ceiling 10% 14% 25% 53% Returned to TANF 36% 38% 33% 16% Average Months on TANF (Returned Only) 6.5 5.8 5.0 4.2 Note: Based on 29,536 1999 employed leavers. The gross income ceiling, which is keyed to family size, is the maximum amount of income a family may have and retain eligibility for TANF benefits. Recidivism and Changing Leaver Characteristics. Among the 1999 leavers who had reported earnings in the first year following exit, there were substantial differences - over above differences in earnings and quarters of employment - between the 25 percent who returned t o TANF and the 75 percent who did not. (See Table 8.) Those who returned t o TANF were younger and had both more children and younger children. They were also more likely to be black and less likely t o live in suburban counties. These characteristics, which parallel the changes in the population of TANF leavers over time, are consistent with the finding that recidivism rates are higher among more recent leavers in spite of the fact that employment and earnings have remained about the same. Those who returned t o TANF were also less likely to have a high school diploma. Table 8 Characteristics of 1999 Employed Leavers by Return t o TANF in the Rrst Year Following Exit Characteristic Returned t o TANF Yes No Percentage 25% 75% Average Number of Quarters Worked 2.7 3.2 Average Earnings per Quarter Worked S 1,368 $2,372 Average Age 27.3 28.8 Average Number of Children 2.3 2.2 Average Age of Youngest Child 3.8 4.2 Race Black White Other 85.7% 13.5% .7% 75.7% 22.7% 1.5% County of Residence Urban Suburban Rural 41.5% 15.5% 43.0% 37.7% 25.6% 36.7% High School Graduate 57.7% 65.1 % Note: Based on 29,536employed 1999 adult leavers. Longer Term Outcomes and Labor Force Attachment Outcomes in the Second and Third Years Following Exit. Two full years of follow-up data are available for those who left TANF during 1997 and 1998, and three years are available for those who left during 1997. Table 9 compares outcomes in the second and third years following exits for leavers from these t w o years. Outcomes for the second year were very similar for both groups of leavers although recidivism was somewhat higher and earnings slightly lower among those who left in 1998. Second and third year outcomes for the 1997 leavers were also very similar, although recidivism decreased and earnings were markedly higher in the third year. Table 9 Outcomes in the Second and Third Years Following Exit Labor Force Attachment. These outcomes do not offer insight into the diverging paths that TANF leavers follow. One path is sustained employment and independence from TANF. The other is episodic employment and intermittent return t o TANF. To Figure 5 understand these paths, we need t o look at the issue of labor force attachment. Cumulative Distribution of Quarters Worked lapa Labor force attachment refers t o the 80% strength of an individual's connection t o the workforce. Among the TANF leavers, it is reflected in the number of quarters - worked over an extended period of time. 5 Figure 5 shows the cumulative distribution $ 4 of number of quarters of employment over - a three year period for 1997 leavers. 3 5 Eighty-two percent of all leavers had v earnings in at least one quarter, and 50 percent had earnings in 8 or more quarters. Most notably, 24 percent of all leavers had earnings in every quarter over the three year period. 0123456789101112 Quarters d Employment Table 10 Average Quarterly Earnings and Total Earnings by Number of Quarters Worked in a 3-Year Period Average Quarterly Earnings Quarters Worked in Quarters Worked 1 $ 1,064 2 $1,114 3 $1,375 4 $1,516 5 $ 1,627 6 $1,722 7 $ 1,848 8 $ 1,983 9 $2,170 10 $2,385 11 $2,756 17 $3.410 Average 3-Year Earnings $1,064 $2,228 $4,125 $6,063 $8,136 $10,332 $12,936 $15,861 $19,530 $23,853 $30,318 $40.- Clearly, labor force attachment is important because sustained employment provides leavers' families with a steady source of income. But, just as we saw in the first year following exit, sustained employment was also associated with higher quarterly earnings in the quarters worked. That is, as the number of quarters worked increased, so did average earnings in those quarters. (See Table 10.) Consequently, the effect of number of quarters worked on total earnings was multiplicative - more quarters times higher earnings per quarter. Among the 1997 leavers, the 24 percent who had earnings in all 1 2 quarters earned three times as much per quarter worked as those who worked three or fewer quarters. The causal link between greater labor force attachment and higher quarterly earnings is probably complex. On the one hand, higher-paying jobs better enable working parents t o meet the costs of working and provide greater incentives for continued employment. On the other hand, it is likely that the leavers in the better-paying jobs were those who had more t o offer employers, such as higher-level skills or better work habits. In any case, if we look at transitions between quarters, we see that both the fact of employment in one quarter and the amount earned help predict whether an individual will be employed in the following quarter. Among the 1997 leavers, the relationships between employment status in one quarter and employment status in the next were highly consistent across all pairs of quarters. Generally, 86 to 88 percent of those who where employed in one quarter were also employed in the next, while only 16 t o 1 8 percent of those who did not have earnings Figure 6 in one quarter had earnings in the next. Predicting Employment from Prior Earnings That is, leavers tended to stay on the path they were on. However, whenever a leaver became employed, her probability of future employment increased. Earnings also play a role in predicting whether a person who is employed in one quarter will be employed in the next. Figure 6 shows the probability of employment + Quarter Q 1 among those employed in Quarter Q and their earnings in that quarter.' 100%- % 5 c-"C; -' 5 E am. --6n E W 70%' - n n Emc SO 1 -- -- 51,000 t2.000 $3,000 s4.m ss.m 5500 51.500 $2,500 $3,500 ~1.~0 Even those with the very lowest earnings had a probability of employment in the Eam~ngsin QuarterQ following quarter of about 62 percent. However, the probability of subsequent employment increases rapidly as earning increase. It reaches 90 percent with earnings of about $2,100, 95 percent at about $3,000, and 9 9 percent at about $4,200. These figures can be compared to full time employment at minimum wage, which generates about $2,678 a quarter. * This graph plots the logistical regression of earnings in the !jthquarter after exit on employment in the 6fhpost-exit quarter. However, it is typical of all successive pairs of quarters. In a recently published comparison of 11 welfare-to-work programs3, Manpower Research Development Corporation found 5-year levels of employment and earnings that are generally consistent with what we have observed over a three year period among Geogia's TANF leavers. However, welfare leavers from a project in Portland, Oregon had much higher earnings than those of leavers from any of the other programs. That project was unique in encouraging welfare recipients to hold out for "good" jobs, rather than accepting the first available job. The strong relationship between level of earnings and strength of labor force attachment that we find among Georgia's TANF leavers illustrates why that strategy was so effective. The simple fact of working promotes future employment, but the probability of continued employment increases dramatically as earnings increase. Hamilton, G. et al. National Evaluation of Welfare to Work Strateaies: How Effective are Different Welfare-to-Work A ~ ~ r o a c h e sF?ive Year Adult and Child lmoacts for Eleven Proarams. Manpower Research Development Corporation, November, 2001. Leavers' Families and Poverty Poverty and the First Year Following Exit. The federal poverty guidelines published annually are used in determining eligibility for a broad range of publically-funded programs and services. These guidelines, which are based on family size, provide a broadlyaccepted and well-understood benchmark against which t o measure the economic progress of TANF leavers and their families. (See Appendix A for poverty guidelines by family size for 1998 through 2000.) In Table 3, we saw that within an exit cohort, earnings increase over time. That is, the longer it has been since a group left TANF, the higher the average earnings of its members However, within a particular post-exit time period, earnings are highly consistent across exit cohorts. That pattern is a cause for concern because it means that leavers' earnings have not kept up with inflation. However, the poverty guidelines increase each year t o reflect increases in the cost of living. Table 11 shows the percentage of employed leavers whose annual earnings exceeded the federal poverty guidelines by exit cohort and number of years following exit. This percentage is generally higher for the 1997 leavers. However, we can see that the proportion of leavers with earnings above the poverty guidelines increases as the number of years following exit increases. Table 11 Percentage of Leavers with Annual Earnings Exceeding the Federal Poverty Guidelines by Exit Cohort and Number of Years Following Exit Exit Cohort 1997 1998 1999 Number of Years Following Exit 1 2 3 18% 15% 15% 24% 20% --- 29% ----- Table 1 2 which shows the percentage of employed leavers with earnings in the first year following exit that exceeded the federal poverty guidelines for the year in which the employment took place. In all exit cohorts, as family size increased, the percentage of leavers with earnings about the poverty guidelines decreased. Only t w o percent of leavers with six or more family members had earnings above the poverty guidelines. Table 12 Percentage of Employed Leavers with Earnings in the First Year Following Exit that Exceeded the Federal Poverty Guidelines Poverty Three Years Out. Looking at the earnings of employed 1997 leavers in the third year following exit relative t o a set of poverty benchmarks provides a picture of the economic progress these leavers have made. (See Table 13.) The benchmarks are the TANF gross income ceiling, 100 percent of the federal poverty guidelines for 2000, and 130 percent of the poverty guidelines. The last figure is the maximum allowable income for families receiving Food Stamps and reflects significant progress toward self-sufficiency. Fifty-three percent of all leavers who were employed in the third year following exit, and fifty-seven percent of those with families with three or fewer members, had average monthly earnings in the quarters worked that exceeded the TANF gross income ceiling. While a majority of the employed leavers no longer met TANF income eligibility requirements, only 29 percent of all employed leavers and 33 percent of those with 3 or fewer family members had annual earnings above 100 percent of the federal poverty guidelines. Only 1 7 percent of all employed leavers and 2 1 percent of those with 3 or fewer family members had earnings that exceeded 130 percent of the poverty guidelines. Table 1 3 Earnings of Employed 1997 Leavers in the 3d Year After Exit Compared to Poverty Benchmarks average monthly earnings in quarters worked. Other comparisons Labor force attachment made an important contribution t o progress out of poverty. Figure 8 Figure 8 illustrates the contribution of labor EarningsAbove the Pove* Guidelines force attachment t o the probability that a leaver will have earnings above the poverty guidelines in the third year following exit. The lines in Figure 8 show the probability of exceeding the poverty guidelines, given family size and quarters worked over a three-year period. As the total number of quarters worked increases, the probability that earnings in the third year following exit will exceed the poverty level rose rapidly among leavers with small families. - mv -ua 2 50%' r ;a 40%~ - P '0u I:l:l 3rd Year After E M -Fanily Sue - 1-3 4-6 7 or More However, even among those leavers who worked in all 12 quarters over a 3-year ouarten worked period, leavers with large families were very unlikely t o have earnings above the poverty level. In general, with the exception of family size, demographic differences between those who did and did not exceed the poverty guidelines were small. However, geographic differences were substantial. In the third year following exit, 24 percent of the employed leavers from rural counties had earnings above the poverty level, compared with 28 percent of urban leavers and 3 6 percent of suburban leavers. Figure 8 For leavers with earned income, the earned Earned income Tax Credit income tax credit provides an additional, and potentially substantial, source of income. (See Figure 8.) This tax credit, which is based on number of children and amount of earned income, increases income without reducing eligibility for federal programs. For the year 2000, it can add as much as $3,888 to the annual income of a worker with two dependent children. When the earned income tax credit is estimated and added t o the 1997 -NO. of Children -l ~ h l d 50 ww W.W SIZOOO S18.000 524,000 s3.m S9m . S15.W t21.m Sn,m 2 or More leavers' earnings in the third year after exit, Earned Income average income increases from $9,885 t o $11,663, and the percentage of leavers with earnings above the poverty guidelines increases from 29 percent to 4 0 percent. However, it is not known t o what extent leavers who are eligible for this tax credit take advantage of it. lndustries Employing TANF Leavers The Unemployment Insurance wage record does not provide information on a worker's occupation. However, it does include the employer's Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. This coding system identifies types of industries within nine major industrial classifications. Although SIC codes tell us where TANF leavers are working, their usefulness as an indicator of what the leavers are doing is varied. Some occupations, such as child care worker, are strongly associated with a particular industry while others, such as computer programmer, are found in many different industries. Nevertheless, industries of employment enrich our understanding of the experiences of adults who leave TANF. The information that follows is based on employment in the 1 2m quarter after exit of adults who left TANF in 1997. It is useful t o focus on this group and time period because it provides the clearest picture of differences between those leavers who were the most and least successful. Valid industrial codes for the target quarter are available for 23,374 1 997 leavers. Table 14 Top Ten lndustries of Employment Three Years Following Exit Industry Eating & Drinking Places Personnel Supply Services Nursing & Personal Care Facilities Elementary & Secondary Schools Grocery Stores Department Stores Hospitals Hotels & Motels Misc. Business Services Child Day Care Services Share of Total Average Quarterly Employment Earnings 14% $2,201 11% $2,404 5% $2,815 4% $2,823 4% $2,654 4% $2,905 4% $4,135 3% $2,356 3% $2,717 2% $2,624 Table 14 lists the 1997 leavers top ten industries of employment three years following exit. Together, these industries account for 52 percent of all employed leavers. Average quarterly earnings in these occupations can be compared t o $2,678,the equivalent t o 13 weeks of full time employment at minimum wage. With the exception of hospitals, average earnings for all of the top ten industries are below, or only slightly above, this criterion. That pattern suggests that these jobs are characterized by low wages and either part-time or episodic employment. The top ten industries were essentially the same across urban, suburban, and rural counties, except that in rural areas meat processing plants and gasoline service stations replaced business and.childcare services. Table 15 Average Quarterly Wages in 12* Quarter After Exii by Major lndustrial Classification and Earnings Relative to the Poverty Guidelines Leavers' Annual Earnings Relative to the Poverty Guidelines All Major Industrial Classification Below Above Average Average Average Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly % Wage % Wage % Wage Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Mining 1% $1,930 0% $4,465 1% $2,379 0O h --- 0% --- 0% --- Construction 1% $2,863 2% $5,671 1% $4,238 Manufacturing 4 Processing 9% $2,554 17% $5,067 12% $3,778 Transportation & Public Utilities 2% $3,116 5% $6,123 3% $4,936 Wholesale & Retail Trade 36% $2,011 23% $4,703 31% $2,700 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 1 % $2,543 5% $5,583 3% $4,633 Services 48% $2,126 42% $5,023 46% $3,037 Government 2% $2,948 5% $5,264 3% $4,257 Note: Based on Standard Industrial Classification of primary occupation of 23,374leavers .with valid industry codes. Table 15 summarizes employment by major industrial classification. Employment was heavily concentrated in services and wholesale and retail trade. However, 84 percent of those whose annual earnings were below the poverty guidelines worked in these two, relatively low-wage industrial groups, compared t o 65 percent of those with annual earnings above the poverty guidelines. Those who had annual earnings above the poverty level were more likely t o work in transportation and public utilities; finance, insurance, and real estate; and, especially, manufacturing and processing than were those with annual earnings below the poverty level. Assuming that those with earnings above the poverty level generally worked full time, the industries in which they worked paid estimated average hourly wages of about $8.50 t o $11.75. A complete listing of number of leavers and average quarterly earnings by industrial group is contained in Appendix B. Appendix A TANF lncome Ceiling and Federal Poverty Guidelines by Number in Family Family Size 1 2 3 4 - 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 TANF Gross Income Ceiling (Monthly) Federal Poverty Guidelines (Annual) 1998 1999 2000 $435 $8,052 $8,240 $8,350 $659 $10,860 $11,060 $11,250 $784 $13,656 $13,880 $14,150 $925 $16,452 -~ - - $1,060 $19,260 $16,700 $19,520 $17,050 $19,950 $1,149 $22,056 $22,340 $22,850 $1,243 $24,852 $25,160 $25,750 $1,319 $27,660 $27,980 $28,650 $1,389 $30,468 $30,800 $31,550 $1,487 $33,276 $33,620 $34,450 $1,591 $36,084 $36,440 $37,350 Appendix B Industry of Employment in 1 2 Q~uarter Following Exit for 1997 Leavers All Leavers Industry Number Average Quarterly Earnings Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Field Crops, Expt Cash Grains 9 $1,317 Vegetables & Melons 12 $1,563 Fruits & Tree Nuts 14 $1,674 Horticultural Specialties 28 $2,661 General Farms, Primarily Crop 4 $2,473 Dairy Farms 4 $2,465 Poultry & Eggs 20 $1,530 Crop Services 27 $2,283 Veterinary Services 24 $3,169 Animal Services, Expt Veterinary 1 $1,950 Farm Labor 8 Management Services 4 $1,298 Landscape & Horticultural Services 24 $3,319 Timber Tracts 2 $4,964 Hunting, Trapping, Game Propagation 2 $1,536 All 175 $2,379 Mining Crushed & Broken Stone 4 $5,703 Clay, Ceramic, & Refractory Minerals 4 $8,544 All 8 $7,124 Construction Residential Building Construction 29 $3,989 Operative Builders 5 $6,121 Nonresidential Building Construction 30 $3,775 Highway & Street Construction 20 $4,931 Heavy Construction, Expt Highway 12 $4,544 Plumbing, Heating, Airconditioning 48 $4,476 Painting & Paper Hanging 19 $3,667 Electrical Work 36 $4,463 Masonry, Stonework, & Plastering 21 $4,168 Carpentry & Floor Work 9 $2,647 Roofing, Siding, & Sheet Metal Work 12 $3,981 Concrete Work 18 $5,277 Water W- ell Drilling 3 $2,299 Misc. Special Trade Contractors 28 $3,938 All 290 $4,238 Leavers with Annual Earnings Above Poverty Level Number Average Quarterly Earnings 7 $4,020 1 $2,583. 2 $3,451 3 $4,459, 6 $5,106 10 $4,674- 1 $8,100- 1 $1,946 31 $4,465 3 $5,275 4 $8,544 7 $7,143 12 $5,706 4 $6,390 15 $5,121 11 $591 1 8 $5,771 23 $5.61 3 5 $6,609 20 $5,477 9 $5,822 4 $3,373 5 $6,514 10 $7,042 2 $3,089 14 $5,467, 142 $5,671 All Leavers Leavers with Annual Earnings Industry Average Number Quarterly Earnings Manufacturing & Processing Meat Products 564 $3,197 Preserved Fruits & Vegetables 14 $2,801 Grain Mill Prod 11 $4,222 Bakery Prod 22 $3,774 Sugar & Confectionery Products 55 $4,548 Fats & Oils 7 $4,264 Beverages 8 $4,891 Misc. Food & Kindred Products 18 $3,718 Broadwoven Fabric Mills, Cotton 35 $3,483 Broadwoven Fabric Mills, Manmade 46 $4,304 Broadwoven Fabric Mills, Wool 14 $ 4 91 Narrow Fabric Mills 5 $3,068 Knitting Mills 51 $3,517 Textile Finishing, Expt Wool 12 $3,275 Carpets & Rugs 98 $4,569 Yam & Thread Mills 134 $4,552 Misc Textile Goods 25 $5,235 Mens & Boys Suits & Coats 4 $2,952 Mens & Boys Furnishings 129 $2,630 Wornens & Misses Outerwear 25 $2,248 Womens & Childrens Undergarments 53 $2,144 Hats, Caps, & Millinery 10 $2,677 Girls & Childrens Outerwear 7 $2,838 Fur Goods 2 $1,438 Misc Apparel & Accessories 9 $2,214 Misc. Fabricated Textile Products 79 $3,014 Logging Sawmills & Planing Mills 6 $5,641 14 $4,858 Millwwk, Plywood & Structural Members 70 $4,063 Wood Containers 12 $2,964 Wood Buildings & Mobile Homes 44 $2,995 Misc Wood Products 5 $5,330 Household Furniture 49 $2,967 Office Furniture 3 $6,778 Number Average Quarterly Earnings 216 $4,324- 2 $6,258 8 $4,961 5 $6,274 41 $521 8 6 $4,722 4 $6,009 7 $5,993 12 $5,056 40 $4,673 11 $5,143 2 $4,256 19 $4,837 5 $4,828 66 $5,097 94 $5,192 19 $5,755 2 $3,694> 29 $3,995- 4 $3,662, 10 $3,601 2 $4,421 3 $4,281 28 $4,476 4 $7,686 8 $5,983 39 $5,119 3 $3,952 20 $4,146~ 3 $7,206 16 $3,869 3 $6,778 Industry Misc Publishing Commercial Printing Manifold Business Forms Blankbooks & Bookbinding Printing Trade Services Plastics Materials & Synthetics Drugs Industrial Inorganic Chemicals Soap, Cleaners, & Toilet Goods Paints & Allied Products Agricultural Chemicals Misc Chemical Products Misc. Petroleum & Coal Products Tires & Inner Tubes Hose & Belting & Gaskets & Packing Fabricated Rubber Products Misc Plastics Products Leather Tanning & Finishing Footwear, Expt Rubber Luggage Leather Goods Flat Glass Structural Clay Products Pottery & Related Products Prod of Purchased Glass Concrete, Gypsum, & Plaster Products Misc. Nonmetallic Mineral Products Blast Furnace & Basic Steel Products Cut Stone & Stone Products Iron & Steel Foundries Nonferrous Rolling & Drawing Nonferrous Foundries (Castings) Metal Cans & Shipping Containers Cutlery, Handtools, & Hardware Plumbing & Heating, Expt Electric All Leavers Number 2 42 5 21 1 3 5 2 25 3 6 4 1 1 5 36 90 1 1 11 1 2 3 2 4 20 9 1 1 6 26 3 7 8 6 Average Quarterly Earnings $13,310 $4,324 $5,025 $3,161 $3,805 $6,868 $8,066 $7,135 $4,177 $6,247 $2,647 $5,196 $5,708 $7,904 $3,961 $3,168 $3,291 $4,014 $2,874 $3,035 $2,630 $4,478 $6,559 $5,389 $3,544 $5,235 $7,546 $7,379 $1,353 $4,455 $5,426 $4,017 $4,263 $5,470 $4,324 Leavers with Annual Earnings Above Poverty Level Number Average Quarterly Earnings 2 $13,310 20 $6,359 3 $5,445 10 $4,865 1 $3,805 3 $6,868 5 $8,066, 14 $4,936 3 $6,247 1 $5,239 4 $5,196 1 $5,708 1 $7,904 3 $6,457 22 $4,761 48 $4,394- - 4 $4,007 1 $2,630 1 $5,847 3 $6,559 2 $5,389 11 $7,463 9 $7,546 1 $7,379 3 $6,842. 23 $6,006 2 $4,485 4 $5,383 7 $5,826 4 $5,099 Industry Metalworking Machinery Special Industry Machinery General Industrial Machinery All Leavers Number 5 3 18 Average Quarterly Earnings $5,588 $3,471 $5,364 Leavers with Annual Earnings Above Poverty Level Number Average Quarteriy Earnings 3 $6,420 1 $5,216 13 $5,613 Ophthalmic Goods 1 $7,887 Photographic Equipment 8 Supplies 1 $4,007 Watches, Clocks, Watchcases & Parts 8 $4,769 Jewelry, Silverware, & Plated Ware 1 $7,954 Musical Instruments 1 $5,215 Toys & Sporting Goods 5 $3,374 Pens, Pencils, Office, & Art Supplies 9 $2,366 Costume Jewelry & Notions 2 $3,657 Misc Manufactures 16 $3,086 All 2755 $3,778 Transportation & Utilities Local & Suburban Transportation 78 $3,220 Taxicabs 5 $2,032 Intercity & Rural Bus Transportation 5 $5,002 Bus Charter Service 8 $4,595 School Buses 26 $2,359 Trucking & Courier Services, Ex. Air 120 $4,820 Public Warehousing & Storage 39 $3,508 Water Transportation Of Passenqers 2 $7.210 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 9 1342 37 3 5 5 70 22 $7,887 $4,007 $3,870 $7,954. $5,215 $4,814 $3,694 $5,858 $3,949 $5,067 $6,155 $6,18i, $5,424 $2,923 $5,767 $4,473 Industry Water Transportation Services Air Transportation, Scheduled Air Transportation, Nonscheduled All Leavers Number 4 96 1 Average Quarterly Earnings $3,437 $3,996 $2,812 Leavers with Annual Earnings Above Poverty Level Number Average Quarterly Earnings 2 $3,937 60 $4,997 , Drugs, Proprietaries, & Sundries Apparel, Piece Goods, 8 Notions Groceries & Related Products Farm-product Raw Materials Chemicals & Allied Products Petroleum & Petroleum Products Beer, Wine, 8 Distilled Beverages Misc. Nondurable Goods Lumber & Other Building Materials Paint, Glass, & Wallpaper Stores Hardware Stores Retail Nurseries & Garden Stores Mobile Home Dealers Department Stores Variety Stores Misc. General Merchandise Stores Grocerv Stores 7 $5,355 47 $2,625 109 $3,540 22 $3,447 14 $3,686 78 $3,670 6 $4,078 72 $2,630 84 $4,048 1 $6,735 6 $3,163 4 $1,810 4 $6,104 865 $2,787 149 $2,348 120 $1,258 959 $2,687 6 $5,884 10 $3,593 48 $5,350, 4 $3,177 6 $5,601 26 $5,387 3 $5,901- 24 $4,776 51 $4,726 1 $6,735 2 $5,135 3 $7,534. 275 $4,466 30 $4,160 18 $4,483 248 $4,514 All Leavers Industry Number Average Quarterly Earnings Meat & Fish Markets 9 $2,997 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 7 $4,323 Candy, Nut, & Confectionery Stores 1 $240 Dairy Product Stores 1 $2,513 Retail Bakeries 17 $2,836 Misc Food Stores 6 $3,822 New & Used Car Dealers 56 $4,556 Used Car Dealers 10 $3,974 Auto & Home Supply Stores 55 $4,536 Gasoline Service Stations 403 $2,343 Boat Dealers 1 $1,709 Motorcycle Dealers 2 $2,010 Mens & Boys Clothing Stores 6 $2,663 Womens Clothing Stores 60 $2,987 Womens Accessory & Specialty Stores 8 $3,264 Childrens & InfantsWear Stores 11 $2,545 Family Clothing Stores 132 $2,667 Shoe Stores 46 $2,771 Misc. Apparel & Accessory Stores 5 $2,917 Furniture & Homefurnishings Stores 54 $3,4?7 Household Appliance Stores 2 $2,250 Radio, Television, & Computer Stores 18 $3,703 Eating & Drinking Places 3190 $2,329 Drug Stores & Proprietary Stores 66 $3,343 Used Merchandise Stores 24 $4,284 Misc Shopping Goods Stores 130 $3.062 Nonstore Retailers 70 $3,463 Fuel Dealers 2 $3,808 Retail Stores 59 $3,881 All 7353 $2,700 Finance, Insurance& Real Estate Central Reserve Depository 1 $6,352 -Commercial Banks Savings Institutions 117 $4,398 5 $5,164 Credit Unions 11 $4,983 Foreign Banks & Branches & Agencies 1 $5,494 Functions Closely Related To Banking 11 $4,509 Personal Credit Institutions 48 $4,324 Business Credit Institutions 33 $5,373 Mortgage Bankers & Brokers 34 $4,579 Security Brokers & Dealers 6 $5,932 Securitv & Commoditv Senices 2 $10.239 Leavens with Annual Earnings Above Poverty Level Number Average Quarterly Earnings 2 $12,350 4 $5,442, 3 $4,700 3 $5,099 36 $5,930 6 $5,123 26 $4,768, 108 $4,224- 1 19 5 5 32 22 2 26 10 490 29 8 40 20 1 23 1883 1 85 5 7 1 6 27 27 20 3 2 $8,590, $4,987 $4,145 $3,542, $4,781, $4,740, $3,363, $5,275 $5,076 $4,375. $4,238 $5,034 $5,364 $4,684 $5,436 $4,705 $4,703 $6,352. $4,858. $5,164, $5,779 $5,494$5,363 $5,304. $6,076 $6,247. $8,523$10,239 b Industry Life Insurance Medical Service & Health Insurance Fire, Marine, & Casualty Insurance Surety Insurance Pension, Health, & Welfare Funds Insurance Carriers Insurance Agents, Brokers, & Service Real Estate Operators & Lessors Real Estate Agents & Managers Subdividers & Developers Trusts Misc Investing All Leavers Number Average Quarterly Earnings 18 $4,746 36 $5,648 59 $4,754 2 $6,051 2 $4,731 1 $5,338 63 $4,628 55 $4,342 67 $4,446 12 $2,818 4 $3,034 . 4, $4,754 Leavers with Annual Earnings Above Poverty Level Number Average Quarterly Earnings 13 $5,436 32 $6,078 47 $5,383 2 $6,051 2 $4,731 1 $5,338 45 $5,748 33 $5,900, 38 $6,008 6 $4,045 2 $3,715 2 $6,156 , Reupholstery & Furniture Repair Misc Repair Shops Motion Picture Distribution & Services Motion Picture Theaters Video Tape Rental Producers, Orchestras, Entertainers W i n g Centers Commercial Swrts 1 $3,826 9 $2,895 - 81--5$G6,9428 40 $3.062 9 $5,171 6 $4,062 7 $2.994 1 $3,826 3 $4,867 1 $6,928. 5 $5,987 9 $5,067 4 $5,055 3 $5,822, 2 $4,763 Industry Misc. Amusement, Recreation Services Offices & Clinics of Medical Doctors Offices & Clinics Of Dentists Offices Of Osteopathic Physicians Offices Of Other Health Practitioners Nursing & Personal Care Facilities Hospitals Medical & Dental Laboratories Home Health Care Services Health &Allied Services Legal Setuices Elementary & Secondary Schools Colleges & Universities Libraries Vocational Schools Schools & Educational Services Individual & Family Services Job Training & Related Services Child Day Care Services Residential Care Social Services Museums & Art Galleries Botanical & Zoological Gardens Business Associations Labor Organizations Civic & Social Associations Religious Organizations Engineering & Architectural Services Accounting, Auditing, & Bookkeeping Research & Testing Services Management & Public Relations Private Households Services A1 l All Leavers Average Number Quarterly Earnings 93 $3419 301 $4,465 45 $3,790 3 $3,004 49 $3,713 1064 $2,601 841 $4,010 34 $4,365 173 $3,228 171 $3,835 46 $5,258 965 $3,083 193 $4,051 3 $3,180 36 $3,781 4 $2,541 255 $2,894 84 $3,129 566 $1,951 187 $2,948 , 68 $3,054 7 $4,983 2 $2,322 4 $2,111 1 I $3,702 54 $3,013 4 22 ' $4,839 $4,484 55 $2,580 18 $4,845 119 84 4 10775 $3,666 1 $4,705 1 $3,185 1 $3,037 Government Leavers with Annual Earnings Above Poverty Level Number Average Quarterly Earnings 33 $4,528 206 $5,578 19 $6,348. 2 $3,166 27 $4,562 238 $4,649 430 $5.401 22 $5,535 64 $5,144, 90 $4,579 35 $6,073~ 247 $5,180 104 $5,590 1 $5.1 11 15 $5,514 1 $4.51 1 122 $4,739 22 $3,938 109 $4,175 54 $4.744 22 $4,391 5 $5,075 1 $2,749 1 $3,549 3 $6,871 16 $5,440 2 $8,249 17 $5,710 23 $5,735 8 $7,028 60 $5,328 29 $5.790 3387 $5,023 Industry Admin. Of Public Health Programs Environmental Quality Housing & Urban Development All Leavers Number 103 13 23 Average Quarterly Earnings $3,9801 $3,4991 1 $3,121 Leavers with Annual Earnings Above Poverty Level Number Average Quarterly Earnings 44 $4,555 2 $6,750 9 $5,516